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Bitcoin price breaks above $76K ahead of potential U.S.-Iran deal

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and new utility protocols

Bitcoin price reclaimed the $76,000 mark on Tuesday as investors await confirmation of a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

Summary

  • Bitcoin reclaimed $76K after dipping below $74K, rising 2% to an intraday high of $76,483 as investors bought the recent pullback.
  • Price action remained tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, with markets awaiting clarity on a potential peace deal ahead of a Wednesday deadline.
  • Analysts warn BTC could target $80K on a deal, while prolonged conflict risks a drop below the $75K psychological support level.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price rose 2% to an intraday high of $76,483 on Tuesday before stabilizing around $76,150 at press time.

Bitcoin edged higher today as investors bought the dip in its price below $74,000 on Monday after reports emerged that Iran may not be attending the emergency peace summit with the U.S. in Islamabad, as the U.S. continues to place its naval blockade on Iranian traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

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On Monday, tensions between the two nations escalated after the U.S. intercepted and seized an Iranian ship carrying military supplies, following which Iran retaliated with its own targeted missile strikes against regional naval assets.

As such, diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israel war on Iran remain uncertain, with Tehran saying it will not negotiate on a deal with the U.S. under its terms or under a constant military threat.

While U.S. President Donald Trump has called for a final negotiation deadline by Tuesday, he extended the timeline to Wednesday evening Washington time for further diplomatic deliberations.

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Despite his repeated claims that Iran is ready to sign on a deal, sources from within Tehran have suggested otherwise, with officials stating they will agree only if a deal is made under specific conditions set by Iran.

Earlier, Iran had asked for several concessions, including billions in reparations for wartime damages to the nation’s infrastructure and the right to continue its uranium enrichment for peaceful energy purposes. However, the U.S. has firmly opposed Iran possessing any form of nuclear power, with Trump noting that such capabilities are a non-negotiable red line.

Trump has indicated that there may not be a further extension of the deadline after tomorrow if Iran fails to cooperate fully with the proposed terms.

The ongoing conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz blocked for over ten days, effectively cutting short global energy supplies, with economists warning that a continued stalemate could lead to a global recession.

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Despite no concrete signs of whether Iran would go with the U.S. proposal, Bitcoin price has benefited from dropping crude oil prices today. Notably, WTI crude oil fell back to $86 while Brent crude prices retracted to under $95. Meanwhile, the bellwether cryptocurrency has also benefited from a potential investor capital rotation from gold, which has fallen significantly today.

For many traders, the outlook for Bitcoin price is largely tied to how successfully the deal will play out tomorrow. If a potential deal is reached, Bitcoin bulls could target a rally toward $80,000 in the coming days.

On the contrary, if Iran continues to resist diplomatic terms, BTC could drop below the $75,000 major psychological support. This could further erode investor confidence and trigger a potential mass liquidation event across the broader crypto market.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Crypto World

Can Bitcoin Break Above $80K Next?

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Can Bitcoin Break Above $80K Next?

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a preferred Wall Street metric to measure investor sentiment and market risk, dropped by over 45% in under a month. For Bitcoin (BTC), this could be a significant bullish signal.

VIX daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin may rise toward $82,700 if VIX keeps underperforming.

  • BTC’s upside outlook gets a boost from Strategy’s BTC buying spree.

Weakening VIX hints at BTC rising to $82,700

Often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” the VIX tracks how much volatility traders expect in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days.

When the index rises, it usually signals rising stress and risk aversion across markets. When it falls, it suggests investors are becoming more comfortable owning riskier assets such as stocks and crypto.

History suggests that a VIX drop of 40% or more is bullish for Bitcoin.

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For instance, BTC rallied approximately 40% during April 2025–May 2025, with its gains aligning with the VIX’s 70% dip.

BTC/USD and VIX daily chart. Source: TradingView

Similarly, a 46% VIX drop during the October–November 2025 period coincided with a 12% BTC gain.

Even the recent 42%–47% VIX decline has coincided with an 8%–9% BTC price rebound, improving the bullish backdrop for Bitcoin in the coming days.

BTC’s next upside target appears to be around the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, the blue line) at around $82,700 by early May.

What happens to Bitcoin if VIX starts rising?

A rising VIX is typically bearish for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, that correlation broke briefly in March, according to a chart highlighted by wealth management firm Swissblock.

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BTC and VIX rose in tandem during the US–Iran escalation in March. In comparison, the broader risk market, including US equities, underperformed.

Bitcoin and VIX performance comparison. Source: Swissblock

One potential catalyst behind Bitcoin’s resilience may have been Strategy’s aggressive BTC buying, which has absorbed the equivalent to nearly 30 weeks of new coin supply since March.

Related: Saylor teases ‘bigger’ BTC buy days after floating semi-monthly dividends

“Bitcoin has already shown inherent strength in a very complex environment”, Swissblock said, adding:

“Do not be surprised if it starts to outperform on its own again.”

Nonetheless, any slowdown in Strategy’s buying could weaken Bitcoin’s support during periods of rising VIX, increasing the risk of downside.

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Multiple analyses suggest BTC may drop below $50,000 in 2026.