Prediction market regulators should consider a measured approach to insider trading enforcement as opposed to an outright ban, according to research from an academic at the Stevens Institute of Technology.

In a paper released on June 2, assistant professor of finance Balbinder Singh Gill developed a formal economic model to answer the question of how strictly insider trading in prediction markets should be policed.

A paradox exists in that “the same insider trade that improves the accuracy of the price today can reduce the participation that makes the price informative tomorrow,” he said. 

The model showed that prediction market price accuracy is “hump-shaped” in enforcement intensity, with too little enforcement letting insiders crowd out participants, while too much enforcement removes the insider’s genuine informational contribution.

“Tougher enforcement curbs the insider, raising participation, so accuracy is hump-shaped and optimal enforcement is interior, neither laissez-faire nor a ban,” he said.

Insider trading has been a persistent problem for prediction markets, with regulators pushing for crackdowns or banning platforms outright.

The CFTC’s chief enforcement director warned prediction market insider traders in April that violators would face enforcement action. In May, US House lawmakers launched a probe into Kalshi and Polymarket over insider trading. 

Different levels of enforcement needed

Singh Gill argued that the level of enforcement should be determined by where the insider information comes from.

Researched information where a trader has worked hard to learn something should have the least, or no enforcement, adding that any crackdown on this level discourages valuable information production.

Related: US House lawmakers launch probe into Kalshi, Polymarket insider trading

Misappropriated information, such as leaked data or classified information, which would be considered insider information, should have a higher level of enforcement.

Meanwhile, cases where the insider can influence the outcome, such as a political candidate betting on their own campaign, should have the most enforcement.

“Trading on a genuine, independently researched edge is the activity society should be most reluctant to punish […] And trading by those who can move the outcome warrants the stiffest enforcement, because their positions invite manipulation.” 

Enforcement in a prediction market should be “calibrated rather than maximal,” he concluded. 

Balanced enforcement provides optimal welfare. Source: Balbinder Singh Gill

Kalshi to check user employment details 

The paper came as Kalshi is introducing new measures to combat insider trading by requiring users in some sensitive markets to disclose employment information. 

Users betting in sensitive markets, such as company performance or national security, will need to disclose their employer via an online form. It has also developed a “specific risk score” assigned to markets with heightened insider trading or manipulation risk.

The changes follow an audit committee report recommending better data collection and pressure from lawmakers and regulators.

Two recent high-profile insider trading cases involving competitor Polymarket were flagged and also referenced in Singh Gill’s paper. 

A Google employee was charged in May with using insider information about the company’s search trends to make $1.2 million on Polymarket, and a US soldier was charged in April with trading on classified knowledge of a military operation.

Magazine: Vietnam preps crypto pilot, HK pushes tokenization: Asia Express

XRP keeps finding buyers near major support, but it keeps losing support anyway. The latest drop pushed the token back toward the same $1.10 area that several analysts had flagged as a key line in the sand, with selling pressure accelerating once $1.13 gave way.

News Background

• Several analysts pointed to the $1.09 area as a major Fibonacci support level that XRP had been approaching for months.

• XRP remains trapped below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, underscoring the broader bearish trend despite periodic relief rallies.

• Trading activity surged during the selloff before quickly normalizing, suggesting a large repositioning event rather than a steady increase in bearish conviction.

Price Action Summary

• XRP fell from $1.1505 to $1.1248 during the 24-hour session, losing more than 4%.

• The breakdown accelerated after price lost support near $1.13, with volume surging to 109.9 million XRP, more than double the daily average.

• XRP later tested support near $1.1240 before stabilizing into the close as selling momentum began to fade.

Technical Analysis

• The most important development was the loss of $1.13 support, which now becomes the first resistance level on any recovery attempt.

• Volume confirmed the move. The selloff occurred on some of the strongest activity seen in months, suggesting active liquidation and repositioning rather than passive weakness.

• At the same time, momentum indicators are nearing oversold territory. Daily RSI readings have fallen close to levels that historically preceded at least short-term relief rallies.

• The broader structure remains bearish. XRP continues trading inside a descending channel and below every major trend indicator that longer-term traders monitor.

What traders should watch

• $1.10-$1.12 is now the key support zone. A decisive break lower would increase the risk of a move toward $1.00 and potentially the $0.80-$0.90 region.

• $1.13 is the first level bulls need to reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure.

• Beyond that, attention shifts to $1.20 and then the larger $1.35-$1.40 resistance zone where previous recovery attempts failed.

• The setup is becoming increasingly compressed. Either buyers finally defend the current support area with conviction, or XRP risks turning a difficult correction into a much larger breakdown.

TLDR:

• XRP inflows to Binance from wallets holding over 1M tokens have declined sharply since the 2025 peak.
• On-chain data shows no extraordinary inflow spike, ruling out aggressive whale selling or profit-taking now.
• The current XRP price drop is tied to leverage liquidations and broad market weakness, not whale distribution.
• If Binance inflows stay low and demand holds, XRP could realistically revisit the $1.8 to $2.0 price range.

XRP exchange inflows to Binance have declined notably following the 2025 market peak, and on-chain data now points to reduced selling activity among large holders.

Transfers exceeding one million XRP dominated exchange inflow charts between 2021 and 2025, reflecting consistent participation from whale and institutional-scale addresses.

The recent pullback in these flows, despite a price retreat from the $3 region, suggests that major market participants are becoming less inclined to sell.

Whale Activity Shifts as Large-Scale XRP Transfers to Binance Drop

Historically, sharp spikes in the 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP inflow categories have preceded major market downturns.

These surges typically signal that large holders are moving assets to exchanges ahead of selling. However, no such extraordinary spike currently appears at the far right of the inflow chart. This absence is a meaningful contrast to prior bear market conditions.

CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA noted that the post-ETF approval period coincides with this drop in whale inflows. The reduced exchange activity suggests whales may be holding positions rather than distributing.

That behavioral shift stands out, especially given XRP’s recent price correction. It points to a market structure that differs from previous cycles.

The current price decline appears linked more to leverage liquidations and broader market weakness than to deliberate whale selling. In past severe downturns, exchange inflows rose aggressively as investors rushed to exit positions.

That pattern is not repeating now. The on-chain picture, therefore, does not support the narrative of widespread profit-taking at this stage.

Between 2021 and 2025, large-scale inflows remained consistently elevated, showing that whales actively used Binance as a distribution venue. The recent reversal of that trend is therefore notable.

It reflects a measurable change in behavior among the market’s largest participants. Whether this shift sustains depends on whether inflows stay suppressed in the weeks ahead.

Subdued Binance Inflows Could Reduce Selling Supply and Support XRP Price

PelinayPA stated in the analysis: “If Binance inflows remain subdued, the available selling supply could continue to decrease. Combined with stronger demand, this would make it easier for XRP to revisit the $1.8–$2.0 range.”

That projection rests on the assumption that the current low-inflow environment holds. Any renewed surge in the 1M+ XRP category would challenge that outlook.

XRP’s price stood at $1.11 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1,754,706,743. The asset recorded a 5.12% decline over the past 24 hours and an 8.28% drop over the prior seven days. Despite these figures, the on-chain data does not yet reflect panic-driven selling from major holders.

Reduced exchange supply, when paired with sustained or growing demand, typically creates favorable conditions for price recovery.

The $1.8–$2.0 range cited in the analysis represents a plausible near-term target if inflows remain low. However, this structure remains sensitive to any sharp reversal in whale behavior. Traders and analysts will likely continue monitoring inflow trends closely.

As long as no renewed surge emerges in the 1M+ XRP inflow category, the current market structure may remain constructive. The broader market environment will also play a role in whether that structure holds.

For now, the declining inflow trend offers a data-backed case for cautious optimism. The next few weeks will clarify whether whales maintain their current stance.

Humanity Protocol has revealed that a compromised employee laptop enabled attackers to obtain control of bridge administration systems across Ethereum and BNB Smart Chain, resulting in the theft and minting of more than $36 million worth of H tokens.

According to a statement shared with crypto.news by Humanity founder and CEO Terence Kwok, the June 8 incident was a coordinated attack that targeted the project’s bridge infrastructure on multiple networks.

“Last night, June 8, 2026, the Humanity was hit by a coordinated attack across Ethereum and BSC,” Kwok said.

Providing the first detailed explanation of how the breach occurred, Kwok said the attacker gained access after compromising an employee device.

“This was a result of a breach that happened after an employee’s laptop was compromised.”

The founder said three of the six Gnosis Safe owner keys controlling the Hyperlane bridge ProxyAdmin on Ethereum were compromised. Humanity Protocol said the attacker transferred ownership of the ProxyAdmin contract to a wallet under their control, upgraded the bridge contract to a malicious implementation, and moved approximately 141.2 million H tokens in a single transaction.

A similar compromise took place on BNB Smart Chain. According to Humanity Protocol, three of five Safe owner keys were compromised, allowing the attacker to seize control of the bridge’s ProxyAdmin contract, deploy a malicious implementation with an unlimited mint function, and mint 200,000,005 H tokens in two separate transactions.

The project currently estimates that more than $36 million has been stolen and sold across both chains.

Compromised multisig keys enabled bridge takeover

Fresh details from Humanity Protocol expand on earlier disclosures from the team, which had initially confirmed only that private keys linked to a Humanity Foundation member were compromised.

Earlier on June 9, on-chain analyst Specter reported that more than 17 wallets associated with Humanity Protocol had been drained. Initial estimates placed losses near $19 million before later blockchain analysis increased the figure to more than $30 million.

Blockchain data cited by Specter indicated that the attacker sold part of the stolen H tokens and converted a substantial portion of the proceeds into Ethereum. According to the analyst’s Telegram update, roughly $23.7 million had been swapped into ETH, while approximately $7.9 million remained in H tokens.

Separate monitoring from blockchain security firm Blockaid had previously suggested that an attacker obtained proxy administrator rights on BNB Smart Chain and minted additional H tokens.

Humanity Protocol’s latest incident report confirms that administrative control of the bridge infrastructure was seized and used to create new tokens on the network.

Questions about the exploit emerged as H experienced unusual trading activity ahead of a scheduled token unlock later this month.

As reported by crypto.news earlier, blockchain investigator ZachXBT had initially considered whether the reported key compromise could have been used to conceal insider selling. However, after reviewing the movement and laundering of stolen funds, he concluded that the available evidence supported Humanity Protocol’s explanation that the exploit stemmed from a genuine private key compromise rather than an insider theft scheme.

Humanity Protocol is scheduled to unlock additional tokens on June 25 under a revised investor vesting plan. Previous reporting by crypto.news showed that some early investors opted for a discounted immediate unlock instead of a longer vesting schedule.

Exchanges and police are assisting recovery efforts

Response efforts remain ongoing as Humanity Protocol works to contain the fallout from the attack and investigate the breach.

“We’ve now halted all deposits and withdrawals to the affected bridges and are working with all related parties, including exchanges, to minimize the impact,” Kwok said.

The project said it is coordinating with exchanges and security partners while conducting an internal investigation into the incident.

“We’re also working closely with the police to investigate this incident and recover some of the stolen funds,” Kwok added.

Market reaction to the exploit was severe. Trading data cited in previous reports showed H falling from its June 2 all-time high near $0.844 to around $0.123 after the attack, erasing most of the token’s earlier rally as trading volume surged above $605 million.

Despite the losses, Kwok said the team remains focused on recovering assets, identifying those responsible, and strengthening the project’s defenses.

“We’re committed to seeing this through by recovering what we can, holding those responsible accountable, and rebuilding our security from the ground up.”

Humanity Protocol said it plans to release a full post-mortem report once its investigation progresses further.

MUFG Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Mizuho Bank plan to start live transactions with a jointly issued stablecoin during fiscal year 2026. Japan’s fiscal year ends in March 2027.

The banks signed a memorandum to create a voluntary council that will prepare the operating and governance framework. The project follows a regulatory pilot supported by Japan’s Financial Services Agency.

Three banks prepare joint stablecoin transactions

The banks will issue the stablecoin through a trust agreement. They will act as joint settlors, while a trust bank or a similar institution will serve as trustee.

The structure aims to let the banks share one issuance framework instead of developing separate tokens. The official statement did not provide the token’s issue size, blockchain network, retail access terms or precise rollout date.

“The three banks will accelerate their initiatives,” the joint statement said.

In addition, the council will examine issuance infrastructure, system design, governance and operating processes. It will also review Japanese laws and market conditions before live transactions begin.

MUFG, SMBC and Mizuho will establish the council first. The group may later work with other financial institutions and related companies that want to join the stablecoin framework.

The banks aim to support several payment uses rather than one limited test. However, they have not named the first commercial users or confirmed whether initial transactions will focus only on corporate payments.

FSA-backed pilot tested cross-border payments

The FSA supported the proof-of-concept in November 2025. The pilot examined joint stablecoin issuance and cross-border payments involving Mitsubishi Corporation’s Japanese and overseas offices.

Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation handled the planned trust-based issuance structure. Progmat supplied the blockchain infrastructure, while the three banks developed requirements and assessment standards.

The pilot also reviewed legal compliance and user protection. Japan’s Payment Services Act allows stablecoins to operate as regulated electronic payment instruments when issuers meet the required structure and reserve rules.

Japan expands its yen stablecoin market

The joint bank project enters a market that already includes other regulated yen token plans. JPYC launched a yen-backed stablecoin in October 2025, while SBI Holdings and Startale have also prepared an institutional yen stablecoin.

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has called for broader use of yen stablecoins, tokenized deposits and round-the-clock settlement. The plan also supports clearer rules for tax payments, wages and corporate uses.

The three-bank project could add a shared settlement route for major corporate clients. Its progress will depend on the council’s final design, regulatory review and connections with existing payment systems.

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 on Tuesday, its most capable public model running on Mythos, as it pursues a fall listing it has already filed for confidentially alongside OpenAI, which filed Monday, and SpaceX.

Mythos is Anthropic’s most advanced tier of artificial intelligence models, and Fable is the first publicly released version of this powerful underlying architecture but it comes with strict built-in safety filters.

Bitcoin has spent the past week trading as the high-beta arm of the Nasdaq, sliding with chipmakers and Asian tech as the AI trade unwound. An Anthropic listing, after its $65 billion round at a $965 billion valuation, would hand index funds and retail traders a single AI-lab stock to pile into. Crypto already moves with the AI trade, and giving that trade its own ticker only tightens its grip.

AI-linked tokens caught a modest bid on Fable’s launch while bitcoin barely moved, because model releases are narrative for the sector’s small caps while the majors now trade on what the AI trade does to risk appetite, not on the models themselves.

Ripple has joined Water.org’s Get Blue campaign as its exclusive digital asset and payments partner. 

The blockchain company will provide seed funding and support fund transfers to local finance partners in emerging markets.

Water.org says more than two billion people lack safe water at home. The nonprofit, co-founded by actor Matt Damon and engineer Gary White, uses small loans to help families pay for water and sanitation systems.

Ripple brings RLUSD into the Get Blue campaign

Ripple said Water.org will use its U.S. dollar-backed RLUSD stablecoin to move funds to microfinance partners. Those organizations provide affordable financing for household pipes, pumps, toilets and other basic water systems.

The arrangement builds on Ripple’s existing support for Water.org through Ripple Payments. Water.org says the platform can reduce costs and shorten transfer times when sending capital to partners across different markets.

“We’re proud to join Water.org in support of Get Blue,” Ripple said.

Get Blue named Ripple alongside Amazon, Gap, Starbucks, Ecolab, AccuWeather and TikTok. The campaign first appeared at the World Economic Forum in January and is now moving into a wider consumer rollout.

Ripple-backed WaterCredit turns donations into affordable household loans

Get Blue directs corporate funding and consumer donations into Water.org’s WaterCredit model. Local financial institutions then provide small loans that families use to install safe water or sanitation services at home.

Water.org reports a 98% repayment rate for WaterCredit loans. Repaid funds can support more borrowers, allowing the same pool of capital to finance additional household projects over time.

“When brands join us, they invite their communities into this work,” Water.org CEO Gary White said.

The wider campaign links donations to everyday purchases and services. Gap contributes $5 from each item in its Get Blue collection. Starbucks will donate $0.25 from selected drinks between June 16 and July 7.

RLUSD expands beyond trading and settlement

Ripple launched RLUSD as a stablecoin backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries and cash equivalents. It operates on the XRP Ledger and Ethereum and supports payments, settlement and other blockchain transactions.

The Water.org partnership adds another humanitarian use for the token. Ripple previously used RLUSD in a drought insurance pilot for pastoral communities in Kenya and committed $25 million to education groups in the U.S.

As crypto.news reported, the education funding supported DonorsChoose and Teach For America. Separate reporting covered RLUSD’s African expansion through Chipper Cash, VALR and Yellow Card for payments and treasury services.

The Get Blue partnership does not disclose how much RLUSD Water.org will receive or which countries will receive the first transfers. Ripple and Water.org have also not published transaction volumes or named the first microfinance recipients.

Kraken has been named the official crypto exchange supporter of the FIFA World Cup 2026, giving the crypto exchange a presence at one of the world’s largest sporting events.

The company said Tuesday that the partnership will include fan activations and product experiences throughout the tournament.

The 2026 World Cup is expected to be the largest in FIFA history, with an expanded field of 48 teams and 104 matches across 16 host cities in the United States, Mexico and Canada. FIFA projects the competition will attract a cumulative global audience of more than 6 billion viewers during its seven-week run.

The partnership places Kraken alongside some of FIFA’s longest-standing corporate sponsors, including Adidas, Coca-Cola, Visa and Hyundai-Kia.

The agreement also expands Kraken’s sports sponsorship efforts, which already include partnerships with Tottenham Hotspur, Atlético de Madrid, RB Leipzig and Atlassian Williams Racing.

The tournament kicks off on June 11 in Mexico City, where Mexico is scheduled to face South Africa at Estadio Azteca.

Source: Kraken

Related: Kraken offers SpaceX IPO access through xStocks

Prediction markets expand their sports presence

The partnership comes four years after the 2022 “Crypto Bowl,” when Coinbase, FTX, Crypto.com and eToro aired advertisements during Super Bowl LVI. Sports marketing activity across the crypto industry slowed following the collapse of FTX later that year and the broader market downturn.

While some digital asset companies have returned to major sporting events, their approach has been more measured. Coinbase aired its first Super Bowl commercial since 2022 during this year’s broadcast, while Crypto.com used the event to launch its AI-focused platform, ai.com.

At the same time, prediction markets, where users buy and sell contracts tied to the likelihood of specific outcomes, have expanded their presence in professional sports.

In November 2025, Polymarket became the official prediction market partner of UFC and Zuffa Boxing under a multiyear agreement that brought prediction market data into live events and broadcasts.

Source: UFC

In January, the company signed a multiyear agreement with Major League Soccer to become the league’s exclusive prediction market partner for MLS and the Leagues Cup. Major League Baseball followed in March, naming Polymarket its official prediction market exchange while signing a separate integrity agreement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

FIFA’s commercial roster also includes ADI Predict, a blockchain-based prediction market platform backed by Abu Dhabi institutions.

Magazine: Korea probes Polymarket users, crypto PACs sweep primaries: Hodler’s Digest, May 31- June 6

AI company Anthropic on Tuesday released the first public version of its powerful Claude Mythos model, called Fable 5, with some crypto users worried it could be used for malicious purposes, despite embedded guardrails. 

Anthropic said last month that its Mythos model uncovered more than 10,000 high or critical-severity vulnerabilities in “systemically important software,” leading many to question if it should be publicly released.

This was despite the company saying on Tuesday that Fable 5 was “made safe for general use,” and has safeguards that reroute some topics, such as cybersecurity, to a different model, Claude Opus 4.8 

“Releasing a model this capable comes with risks. Without safeguards, Fable 5’s capabilities in areas like cybersecurity could be misused to cause serious damage,” it said.

Source: Claude

The guardrails have done little to reassure crypto users, with AI increasingly being used to attack crypto platforms. In April, the value of crypto stolen in hacks hit $629.7 million, the highest since February 2025, which analysts linked to the use of the technology. 

Mythos release sparks warnings from crypto users

Simon Dedic, founder of the venture firm Moonrock Capital, posted to X on Tuesday that with Fable 5, the “cost and skill required to find exploitable flaws in smart contracts is about to drop to basically zero.”

“For DeFi, this should be a massive wake-up call. Unaudited protocols will become sitting ducks. Known exploits will get replayed on forks around the clock. Even small projects will get targeted simply because trying costs next to nothing now,” he added.

Related: AI agents with crypto could escape and become ‘unstoppable,’ experts warn

Dedic repeated calls online, suggesting that crypto users should protect themselves from the model, including revoking wallet approvals, removing as much value from protocols as possible and moving crypto to fresh hardware wallets.

Curve Finance co-founder Michael Egorov, however, said that the threat Claude Mythos posed to crypto was likely overblown as its success in finding bugs in other software might not translate to funding smart contract vulnerabilities in DeFi. 

In May, Anthropic said Claude Mythos found thousands of critical vulnerabilities in important software through Project Glasswing. For open-source projects, which are central to how crypto protocols are managed, Mythos found around 6,200 high or critical-severity vulnerabilities in more than 1,000 projects it investigated.

Egorov argued that the software Mythos found vulnerabilities in had millions of lines of code, while smart contracts have a few thousand, “and both humans and ‘usual’ AI perfectly fit that code in context and can reason well about it.”

“I suspect we might not be having a wave of DeFi code hacks, but we may see a lot of things in OpSec [operational security] getting hacked (looking like multisig keys compromises) and supply chain attacks on frontend dependencies, and those are way less dangerous in true DeFi,” he said.

Meanwhile, Anthropic said a “small group” of cybersecurity and infrastructure providers would get access to Claude Mythos 5, the same model as Fable 5 but with safeguards lifted in some areas.

Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now