Crypto World
China industrial profits jump 24.7% in April, fastest gain in over two years despite headwinds
BEIJING — China’s industrial profits in April surged by 24.7% from a year earlier, according to official data released Wednesday, marking the fastest growth since November 2023.
The increase accelerated from a 15.8% rise in March, according to China’s biggest financial data provider Wind Information.
For the first four months of the year, enterprise profits rose 18.2%, up from 15.5% growth in the first quarter.
China reported slower economic growth in April, with a 4.1% increase in industrial output and a 0.2% rise in retail sales from a year ago. Fixed asset investment fell for the first four months of the year as the real estate drag steepened.
Exports remained strong, climbing 14.1% in April from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms. Imports surged by 25.3%, data released earlier in May showed.
The producer price index in April jumped 2.8% from a year ago, the most since July 2022.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Treasury Drawdowns Accelerate With Latest BTC Transfers From Trump Media Company
Key Highlights
- A recent report suggests that Trump Media has transferred around 4,600 BTC to wallet addresses connected with Crypto.com
- The drawdowns associated with the company’s Bitcoin treasuries are reported at around $455 million
- Traders are closely watching exchange inflows for any large Bitcoin transfer activity
Trump Media BTC Moves Raise Market Speculations
The fears related to treasuries have risen after news that Trump Media & Technology Group conducted transfers of thousands of BTC within several trading sessions. Blockchain monitoring detected a second move of 2,650 BTC, about $205 million, with destination wallets allegedly connected to Crypto.com.
According to recent data, the number of recent Bitcoin moves linked to Trump Media reached more than 4,600 BTC. Exchange-linked transactions can raise increased interest from institutional investors since such movements may indicate the company’s desire to manage liquidity or conduct other operations.
As soon as news about the transfer became available, market experts debated the general picture. Although blockchain information cannot be considered conclusive evidence of a decision to sell, any transfer of treasury funds to exchange-linked wallets puts market participants on alert during times of heightened volatility.
At the same time, such transactions revived discussion about the dangers of having large BTC holdings on a public company’s balance sheet, especially when acquisitions were made during periods of high valuations.
Bitcoin Losses Not Realized Exceeding $455M
According to reports, Trump Media invested in about 11,542 Bitcoins, paying roughly $1.37 billion to acquire them. On average, the price per Bitcoin is estimated at about $118,522, putting the company in a difficult position as prices have fallen relative to that level.
The unrealized loss on its treasury is said to be near $455 million. The decrease in valuation shows the problems many companies face by holding significant amounts of Bitcoin during periods of macroeconomic and crypto-market volatility.
During a downturn, investors tend to question publicly traded companies’ decisions to hold Bitcoin. Concerns focus on liquidity risk, the soundness of the balance sheet, and treasury exposure, because losses can continue to grow.
The case also highlights the disparity between companies that were early adopters of treasury Bitcoin and firms that entered the market when valuations were relatively high.
Bitcoin Transfers To Exchanges Spark Trading Caution
When large Bitcoin transfers occur into exchanges, they usually affect short-term market psychology, as many people associate such transfers with selling activity or collateral adjustments. For this reason, blockchain trackers remain important for understanding institutional behavior and treasury management.
Trump Media’s Bitcoin treasury topic is also associated with politics: some visual representations of blockchain reports included Donald Trump next to figures of the company’s Bitcoin holdings, which raised further interest.
Institutional Bitcoin strategies now affect shareholders’ confidence, public opinion, and market narratives about corporate involvement with cryptocurrency. Public interest in treasury-based blockchain transactions has increased significantly compared with previous market cycles.
Although speculation has mounted, experts say transfers between wallets are common in corporate treasuries. Companies often move funds for security or operational reasons. Traders will continue to watch corporate wallet activity for confirmation of intent.
Bitcoin Treasury Policies Under Pressure
Recent trends highlight how quickly the bullish narrative around corporate Bitcoin holdings can turn into accounting concerns during turbulent markets. As more listed firms increase cryptocurrency holdings, strategies for managing these positions become more sensitive to investor sentiment and macro risks.
Market participants are watching for any new flows to exchanges in the coming weeks. Future blockchain transactions and any official company announcements will determine whether recent transfers were merely restructuring activities.
Crypto World
Cathie Wood doubles down on Bitcoin with bold $1.25M prediction
Cathie Wood has raised her long-term Bitcoin forecast to as high as $1.25 million, even as the cryptocurrency trades below key resistance levels during another period of macro uncertainty.
Summary
- Cathie Wood raised ARK Invest’s five-year Bitcoin target to $750,000 in its base case and $1.25 million in its bull-case scenario.
- ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2026 report projected Bitcoin’s market capitalization could grow from $2 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030.
- Bitcoin traded near $77,000 as ETF outflows, Fed rate concerns, and U.S.-Iran tensions continued pressuring crypto markets.
Speaking in a recent interview with Fox Business, the ARK Invest chief executive said institutional demand continues to support the firm’s long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Wood stated that ARK Invest now sees a base-case Bitcoin target of $750,000 over the next five years, while its bull-case scenario projects prices climbing to $1.25 million.
According to Wood, pension funds, asset managers, and corporations are still in the early stages of allocating capital to Bitcoin. She described the cryptocurrency as a new asset class that institutional investors can no longer ignore if they want to improve long-term portfolio returns.
At the same time, Bitcoin remains stuck near the $77,000 range after several failed attempts to reclaim the $80,000 psychological level. Data from crypto.news showed Bitcoin (BTC) price was trading at roughly $77,149 on Tuesday, moving sideways over the past 24 hours. Intraday trading ranged between $76,451 and $77,998, while daily volume also slipped slightly.
Meanwhile, Wood argued that Bitcoin could continue taking market share from gold as younger investors inherit wealth over the coming decades. She also said the asset may gain traction in emerging economies where inflation, corruption, and currency instability continue to pressure local financial systems.
ARK Invest ties Bitcoin forecast to institutional adoption
As crypto.news reported earlier, fresh projections from ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2026 report offer more detail behind the company’s aggressive Bitcoin outlook. According to figures cited by Forbes, the report estimates Bitcoin’s market capitalization could expand from roughly $2 trillion today to nearly $16 trillion by 2030.
The report also projects annual compound growth of about 63% during the remainder of the decade. ARK Invest attributed the forecast to several factors, including spot Bitcoin ETF demand, corporate treasury adoption, nation-state reserves, and Bitcoin’s use as settlement collateral across financial markets.
Beyond Bitcoin, ARK Invest predicted the wider digital asset sector could grow from around $2.8 trillion to nearly $28 trillion by 2030. The report named Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as the dominant networks expected to capture most of that expansion.
Recent trading activity from ARK Invest has also reinforced the firm’s crypto-focused strategy. Earlier this month, the investment company purchased about $4.4 million worth of shares in Bullish after the exchange operator’s stock declined for five straight trading sessions before rebounding slightly.
Market reports showed ARK Invest added Bullish shares across its ARK Innovation ETF, ARK Next Generation Internet ETF, and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF products over two trading days.
Bitcoin faces pressure from geopolitics and Fed concerns
Despite Wood’s optimistic forecast, several market risks continue to weigh on Bitcoin in the short term. According to a May 26 report from The New York Times, investors remain cautious after the latest self-defense strikes linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict added fresh volatility across global markets.
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have also continued to pressure sentiment. At the same time, traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve after speculation grew that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could support additional rate hikes during his first policy meetings.
Elsewhere, some crypto investors continue to maintain longer-term bullish targets similar to Wood’s outlook. Public figures, including Robert Kiyosaki, Arthur Hayes, and Brian Armstrong, have previously discussed scenarios where Bitcoin could eventually reach the $1 million level during a future market cycle.
Meanwhile, Anthony Scaramucci recently told investors he still expects Bitcoin to rally later in 2026 if the traditional four-year crypto cycle remains intact.
Crypto World
Digital Chamber Defends OCC Crypto Trust Charter Approvals
TLDR
- The Digital Chamber rejected Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s claim that crypto trust charter approvals were improper.
- The group said Warren misread the National Bank Act and the OCC’s charter authority.
- Warren argued that firms like Ripple, Circle, Paxos, BitGo, Fidelity, and Coinbase face weaker standards.
- The Digital Chamber said federally regulated trust banks would not accept cash deposits or issue loans.
- Cody Carbone said the OCC should use its charter powers as Congress advances stablecoin regulation.
Crypto industry group The Digital Chamber has pushed back against Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s claim that digital asset firms received improper national trust charter approvals from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
According to The Digital Chamber, Sen. Warren’s criticism misreads the National Bank Act and the OCC’s authority to approve national trust charters for crypto firms. The group made the argument in a Tuesday letter to Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould.
The response followed Warren’s letter to the OCC last week, where she said approvals involving Ripple, Circle, Paxos, Fidelity Digital Assets, BitGo, and Coinbase appeared to violate the National Bank Act. Warren also argued that the firms were not being held to the same standards as traditional banks.
The Digital Chamber, which says it represents more than 250 crypto-related entities, rejected that view. In the letter, CEO Cody Carbone said Warren’s description of the approvals as “apparent violations” misread both the statute and the OCC’s long-running charter powers.
The Digital Chamber Defends OCC Charter Authority
Carbone told the OCC that national trust charters fall within the agency’s existing legal powers. According to The Digital Chamber, the approvals do not create full-service banks and do not allow the firms to take cash deposits or issue loans.
The group said the firms would instead operate as federally regulated trust banks if they receive final approval. Under that structure, they would be allowed to custody customer assets while remaining outside the business model of deposit-taking commercial banks.
Warren’s letter argued that the recently approved digital asset firms were attempting to use the charter process in a way that conflicts with the National Bank Act. She also said the companies appeared to have organized their applications after Congress passed stablecoin legislation last summer.
The law cited by Warren is the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, known as the GENIUS Act. According to Warren, that law does not change the requirements of the National Bank Act or remove the OCC’s duty to apply banking standards.
Carbone rejected that argument in his response. He said it would be inconsistent for Congress to create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers while the OCC refused to use its charter authority for firms seeking federal oversight.
Stablecoin Rules Add Pressure To Charter Debate
The dispute comes as crypto firms continue to seek federal recognition through the OCC. Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos received conditional approvals last year, according to the report.
Those approvals remain conditional, meaning the firms still need final clearance before operating under the trust-bank structure. If finalized, the charters would give the companies a federal pathway for custody services but would not place them in the same category as traditional banks that accept deposits and make loans.
Warren has framed the issue as a financial-stability concern. In her letter, she warned that the OCC’s approvals could expose the banking system to risks if crypto firms receive federal charters without meeting bank-like requirements.
The Digital Chamber framed the matter differently. The group said the OCC’s trust-charter process gives regulators direct oversight of digital asset firms instead of leaving them outside the federal banking framework.
At the same time, the charter dispute has unfolded alongside other points of tension between banks, lawmakers, and crypto firms. The treatment of stablecoin rewards was one of the issues debated during work on crypto legislation, though lawmakers later resolved that dispute as the bill advanced.
Crypto World
Hyperliquid Launches Prediction Markets for Offchain Events
Decentralized exchange (DEX) Hyperliquid launched canonical prediction markets for offchain events, as the platform starts expanding beyond perpetual futures.
Validators run automated newsfeed software that publishes the markets and votes on deployment and settlement, Hyperliquid said in a Monday Telegram post.
The markets are built on Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 and use Circle’s USDC (USDC) as the quote asset. Hyperliquid said the first markets will open based on the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year change and the June federal funds rate decision.
The launch puts prediction markets inside Hyperliquid’s existing trading stack, allowing users to trade event outcomes alongside spot and perpetual futures rather than moving collateral to a separate platform.
The rollout adds weight to a thesis advanced by Delphi Digital that Hyperliquid is evolving from a perp DEX into a broader onchain financial venue.
“What’s different now is that the stack is finally mature enough for true crypto superapps (aggregated giants) to exist without being limited to the wallet form factor,” Delphi said in a December research report.
The HYPE token’s price soared by 20% when Hyperliquid first announced plans to launch prediction market functionalities, Cointelegraph reported in February.

Hyperliquid announces the launch of canonical prediction markets. Source: Hyperliquid Telegram Channel
Is Hyperliquid crypto’s next “super-app”?
Hyperliquid’s expanding functionalities are making it the crypto industry’s next “super-app,” according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Bitwise. He wrote in a May 19 report:
“Hyperliquid has become the ‘super-app’ Atkins envisioned—a ‘non-SEC regulated platform’ offering investors exposure to “a variety of asset classes.”
Hougan added that the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token is “one of the most mispriced assets in crypto today,” despite outperforming the wider crypto market since the start of 2026. He argued that investors are mispricing it, valuing it only as a perp DEX rather than a financial “super-app.”

HYPE & Total Crypto Market Capitalization, year-to-date chart for 2026. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Since the beginning of the year, the HYPE rose more than 134% while the total crypto market capitalization fell by around 14%, TradingView data shows.
Related: Polymarket team says user funds safe as exploit losses climb above $600K
Hyperliquid is currently the fifth-largest protocol by weekly fees and generated over $11 million in fees during the past week, according to DefiLlama data.
In the month leading up to May 10, Hyperliquid generated $50.95 million in revenue, all of which went directly to token holders with zero spent on incentives.
Magazine: The legal battle over who can claim DeFi’s stolen millions
Crypto World
Luffa secures strategic investment from GoFintech Quantum at US$220 million valuation, pioneering AI + fintech frontier
HONG KONG, May 26, 2026 — Luffa AI, a leading innovator at the intersection of Web3 and Artificial Intelligence, today announced a strategic equity investment from Hong Kong-listed GoFintech Quantum Innovation Limited (“GoFintech Quantum”, Stock Code: 00290.HK). The transaction values Luffa AI at US$220 million. The two parties will engage in deep strategic collaboration across artificial intelligence, quantum security, blockchain, and compliance fintech to jointly explore the new AI + Quantum Blockchain Fintech track.

The current internet is highly fragmented: identities are siloed and controlled by platforms, AI agents lack independent identities, wallets, and execution capabilities, value and payments are locked within closed ecosystems, and AI-generated content remains unverifiable with unclear compliance pathways. Luffa addresses these challenges through three core dimensions of super connectivity. In Community, it enables trusted DID-based self-sovereign identity, AI agent empowerment, and on-chain governance for true decentralized autonomy. In Content, channels become programmable and tradable value containers, supporting creator influence tokenization and multi-layered monetization. In Aggregation, the SuperBox open mini-app ecosystem, multi-chain wallets, LuffaPay intent-based payments, and multi-agent commercial protocols seamlessly connect applications across all scenarios. These three systems form a closed loop that bridges the critical gaps between users and identity, identity and assets, content and value, as well as online and offline experiences.
As of February 2026, Luffa’s ecosystem has achieved rapid growth, with over 3 million global downloads, 2 million registered users, and more than 150,000 daily active users. Its core products, Luffa Wallet and SuperBox Mini-App Platform, are now officially launched, with proven use cases in prediction markets, AI mini-games, RWA, creator economy, and community governance. In 2026, Luffa will focus on the AI-powered Web3 ecosystem to build a globally leading intelligent trading ecosystem.
This strategic investment represents a significant milestone for Luffa AI in advancing privacy-preserving infrastructure and intelligent interaction technologies. GoFintech Quantum has made multi-faceted deployments in quantum encryption algorithms and blockchain technology, with deep expertise in institutional financial services,GoFintech Quantum will provide strong technical backing for Luffa’s AI Agent infrastructure and privacy-secure communications, accelerating its global commercialization and ecosystem expansion.
Under the strategic cooperation framework, Luffa AI and GoFintech Quantum will collaborate globally in the following areas: joint research and development of AI-driven intelligent investment systems, on-chain financial automation platforms, and smart trading & risk management solutions; exploration of blockchain applications and digital asset compliance frameworks; development of RegTech solutions compliant with Hong Kong and international standards; advancement of quantum encryption for digital asset security and blockchain scenarios.
Michael Liu, CEO of Luffa AI, commented:
“Luffa is redefining interaction in entertainment, culture, and commerce, giving users genuine ownership, privacy, and direct governance over the platform. GoFintech Quantum’s profound capabilities in quantum financial security and cross-border compliance will provide a solid foundation for building the next generation of social and AI Agent infrastructure. Together, we are moving from imagining a better web to actively creating it.”
“We are thrilled to finalize our strategic investment in Luffa AI,” said Tianfu Yuan, CEO of GoFintech Quantum. “This is more than a milestone for our innovation-driven strategy; it is a pivotal step in exploring the convergence of quantum technology with AI and Web3. We look forward to working closely with the Luffa team to build a more secure and intelligent digital infrastructure.”
About Luffa
Luffa is a groundbreaking Web3 and AI super connector that integrates decentralized identity (DID), AI agents, Web3-native wallets, social features, and mini-programs into a unified ecosystem. It empowers users to create channels, mini-programs, and AI bots, delivering a seamless one-stop experience. Empowering individuals, communities, brands, and AI developers alike, Luffa offers a verifiable behavior system, programmable economic models, and a secure interaction environment, with support for agent-driven transactions, loyalty program deployment, and decentralized collaboration. Luffa is committed to turning attention into ownership and connections into business opportunities.
About GoFitech Quantum Innovation Limited (00290.HK)
GoFintech Quantum Innovation Limited (00290.HK) is a cross-border, cross-industry technology innovation investment platform based in Hong Kong, backed by the Greater Bay Area, and globally oriented. It holds SFC Type 1, 4, 6, 9 licenses and cross-border qualifications including QFII, CIBM, QDIE, QFLP, and Bond Connect. The Group has built a closed-loop ecosystem across four business segments: Technology Innovation, Finance, Art, and Trade. With strategic deployments in quantum technology and digital assets, it drives a model where investment powers investment banking and innovation feeds back into traditional businesses, aiming to become a global leader in quantum technology applications.
Media contact:
Crypto World
Hedera-based BrandBoost targets gamified loyalty programs for enterprises
Swiss blockchain firm The Hashgraph Group has launched BrandBoost on Hedera, introducing tokenized loyalty rewards and real-time customer engagement tools for enterprises.
Summary
- The Hashgraph Group has launched BrandBoost on Hedera to help enterprises create tokenized loyalty rewards and real-time customer engagement systems.
- BrandBoost combines gamification, digital collectibles, self-custody wallets, and identity verification tools for sectors including sports, media, entertainment, and telecom.
According to an announcement shared with crypto.news, the new software-as-a-service platform targets enterprises looking to move beyond traditional loyalty systems built around static points and membership cards.
The company said BrandBoost combines gamification tools, tokenized incentives, digital collectibles, and AI-driven consumer analytics to create what it described as a more interactive loyalty experience.
At a time when brands are competing for repeat consumer attention across online platforms, retail stores, sports venues, entertainment events, and connected devices, The Hashgraph Group said businesses increasingly need systems that can respond to customer behaviour instantly instead of relying on delayed reward mechanisms after purchases are completed.
Data cited by the company from Deloitte’s 2025 customer loyalty research showed that 72% of consumers said loyalty programs make them more likely to spend with preferred brands, while 56% said such programs increase how much they spend.
Deloitte’s research also found that only 51% of respondents actively engage with more than one loyalty program, a figure The Hashgraph Group used to highlight competition among brands for sustained customer engagement.
THG expands Hedera enterprise products
Built on Hedera’s distributed ledger infrastructure, BrandBoost integrates THG’s AssetGuard wallet system and its IDTrust self-sovereign identity platform to support what the company described as secure and verifiable consumer interactions.
Through an integrated token studio, businesses can create branded loyalty tokens that users can earn, redeem, trade, or spend through self-custody wallets.
Stefan Deiss, co-founder and chief executive officer of The Hashgraph Group, said loyalty programs are moving toward live digital engagement systems rather than traditional points-based structures.
“Loyalty programs are no longer just about points and rewards, but about creating live engagement ecosystems where consumers interact with brands in ways that feel immediate, relevant, and personalised,” Deiss said in the announcement.
“With BrandBoost, we are enabling businesses to interact and transact with consumers in real-time, while unlocking new monetisation and revenue models through loyalty gamification models.”
The rollout adds to The Hashgraph Group’s growing portfolio of enterprise-focused Hedera products.
Back in September 2025, the company launched TransAct, a managed transaction gateway that allowed enterprises and government institutions to execute Hedera transactions without directly holding HBAR or managing crypto wallets.
At the time, Deiss said TransAct was designed to remove operational and compliance barriers that had slowed enterprise blockchain adoption by abstracting wallet management, gas fees, and crypto accounting requirements behind a traditional invoicing structure.
Separately, The Hashgraph Group also participated in Switzerland’s municipal blockchain biodiversity voucher initiative launched earlier this year in Muri bei Bern. The project introduced tokenized biodiversity reward vouchers on Hedera that residents could redeem for Swiss francs at local businesses after participating in environmental conservation work.
Within the BrandBoost launch, The Hashgraph Group said the platform can be deployed across sectors including sports, media, entertainment, and telecommunications, where companies are looking for tools to reduce subscriber churn and improve audience participation through tokenized incentives and real-time engagement systems.
Truesense partnership adds location verification layer
Alongside the platform launch, THG announced a strategic collaboration with Truesense to integrate ultra-wideband, or UWB, technology into BrandBoost. According to the company, the integration allows brands to verify physical attendance and user location with centimetre-level accuracy during events and gamified campaigns.
Armando Caltabiano, co-founder and chief executive officer of Truesense, said the partnership would support new monetization systems tied to consumer participation while also helping reduce fraud and account-sharing abuse.
The two companies said they recently completed a proof-of-concept deployment with a Latin American satellite television provider, where BrandBoost was tested alongside UWB-enabled USB-TV dongles developed by Truesense to support audience engagement and content monetization.
Crypto World
Former Hodlnaut CEO Charged in Singapore Over Terra Collapse Claims
Former Hodlnaut CEO Zhu Juntao was charged in Singapore with six counts of fraud by false representation, in a case tied to statements Zhu and Hodlnaut employees allegedly made after the 2022 collapse of the Terra ecosystem.
Singapore Police said Zhu, 36, was charged following an investigation by the Commercial Affairs Department and faces three charges under Section 424A(1)(a) read with Section 424A(3) of the Penal Code 1871, as well as three further charges under the same provision read with Section 109.
The case centers on alleged false claims about Hodlnaut’s exposure to the TerraUSD (UST) crash, including accusations that Zhu directed staff to issue some of the statements.
Police said Zhu allegedly instigated Hodlnaut employees to make misleading statements in the company’s official Telegram group and in emails sent to some users between May and July 2022, asserting that the platform did not have direct exposure to UST and had not suffered losses from its crash.

Singapore Police Force charges former Hodlnaut chief executive Zhu Juntao. Source: Singapore Police Force
The police statement also said Zhu published three similar posts on his personal Twitter account, now known as X, in June 2022. If convicted, he faces up to 20 years in prison, a fine, or both, on each charge.
Related: Singapore revokes crypto payment license of Bsquared over regulatory breaches
The charges revive scrutiny of one of the most damaging episodes in the 2022 digital asset market rout. The Terra ecosystem imploded in May 2022 when its algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its dollar peg, wiping out approximately $50 billion in market value and helping trigger broader failures across the crypto lending sector.
Hodlnaut’s collapse and liquidation
Hodlnaut, a Singapore-based crypto platform that allowed users to deposit tokens for yield, had more than 30,000 users worldwide before it became defunct in August 2022 due to financial difficulties, according to police.
The company halted withdrawals in August 2022, and its website now says its affairs, business and property are being managed by court-appointed liquidators.
Other crypto lenders, including Celsius Network and Voyager Digital, also fell into bankruptcy in 2022 amid the Terra fallout and a wider market slump, leaving hundreds of thousands of customers with frozen funds.
Celsius reported more than $10 billion in assets before its collapse, while Voyager’s Chapter 11 filing listed between $1 billion and $10 billion in assets and liabilities.
Cointelegraph reached out to Hodlnaut’s court-appointed liquidators, but they did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now
Crypto World
XRP MVRV Sinks to 2020 Lows as Average Trader Losses Hit -47% and Fear Grips the Market
TLDR:
- XRP 30-day MVRV ratio has fallen to its lowest level recorded since December 2020 cycle lows.
- Average traders active in the past 30 days are currently holding unrealized losses of around -47%.
- Crowd sentiment dropped to 1.1 bullish comments per bearish comment, placing XRP in the FUD zone.
- Historically, deeply negative MVRV readings have preceded strong rebounds as panic selling slows down.
XRP is flashing signals that seasoned traders recognize from past market cycles. On-chain data shows the asset trading in deeply oversold territory, with both sentiment and return metrics reflecting widespread frustration among short-term holders.
At a current price of $1.35, XRP has shed more than half its market value since last summer’s peak.
Average Trader Returns Drop to Multi-Year Lows
The 30-day MVRV ratio for XRP has fallen to its lowest reading since December 2020. This metric tracks the average unrealized profit or loss among traders active within the past month. Currently, those traders are sitting on losses averaging -47%, a figure that reflects deep market pain.
According to Santiment Intelligence, MVRV ratios have historically reverted to 0% over time. This pattern means prolonged negative readings often precede recovery phases. The current reading suggests many short-term holders are capitulating or have already sold.
Much of this pressure traces back to XRP’s aggressive rally in late 2024 and early 2025. Many retail traders entered positions near local tops during that run-up. As momentum faded and repeated selloffs followed, those buyers found themselves deeply underwater.
Santiment noted that deeply negative MVRV zones tend to emerge when retail participation is exhausted. When that happens, even modest positive catalysts can spark sharp recoveries. The data does not guarantee a reversal, but it does point to reduced downside risk relative to potential upside.
Crowd Sentiment Drops Into FUD Zone
Alongside the on-chain data, social sentiment around XRP has also turned sharply negative. Santiment reported that the ratio of positive to negative commentary has dropped to just 1.1 bullish comments per bearish comment. That reading places XRP firmly in what analysts call the “FUD zone.”
Historically, this level of crowd pessimism has acted as a contrarian indicator for XRP’s price. When fear dominates social media, weak hands have typically already exited their positions. That reduces active selling pressure and often sets the stage for stabilization or a bounce.
The reverse dynamic plays out during periods of heavy optimism. When the positive-to-negative ratio climbs deep into “FOMO zone” territory, it usually marks a period where buyers are overextended. Those conditions tend to align with local price tops rather than sustainable rallies.
Despite the current negativity, some investors remain patient. Regulatory developments, ETF speculation, and Ripple’s broader adoption narrative continue to hold attention among longer-term holders.
These factors have not driven immediate price recovery, but they remain part of the broader market conversation around XRP’s trajectory.
Crypto World
Bitcoin cools after $78k spike as value investor keeps buying cheap BTC
Bitcoin’s price action has spent a fourth straight week in a defined range, with buyers defending the $74,000 level while sellers stack around the $78,000 to $80,000 band. Hyblock analysts observe that the intraday jump to $78,164 may have flushed underwater longs and pushed short-sellers toward breakeven, suggesting a delicate balance between demand and supply as the market tests a psychological threshold.
According to Hyblock, the rally into the $78,000 area appeared to trigger a wave of exits from positions that had previously been underwater, while optimistic shorts opted to cut losses at breakeven to avoid further downside risk. The firm’s insights come as traders monitor whether fresh liquidity can sustain a push through resistance, or if the price will retreat back into the established corridor.
BTC/USDT net positions heatmap. Source: Hyblock
Hyblock also highlighted the role of liquidations in the intra-day move and noted how liquidity tends to act like a magnet for BTC. The firm identified two notable clusters where liquidity is concentrated and building most rapidly—the area around $75,675 to $75,700 stands out as a particularly active pocket that could exert ongoing influence on near-term price behavior.
BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. Source: Hyblock
In the broader context, Hyblock’s discussion of liquidity dynamics aligns with recent market chatter about how futures activity can drive price action even as spot demand absorbs a portion of selling pressure. The evolving balance between futures-driven liquidity and spot market participation remains a key factor for traders watching for a sustained breakout or a renewed pullback.
Meanwhile, observers note a separate development on the demand side. Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream, drew attention to a large Bitcoin whale employing a time-weighted average price (TWAP) strategy to accumulate BTC at a brisk pace. Back tweeted that the whale has been gobbling up around 450 BTC per day for eight-and-a-half days, underscoring the persistent interest from sizable buyers even as price hovers near the lower end of the recent range.
Bitfinex Bitcoin whale TWAP data. Source: Adam Back / X
Price action and market structure: what the indicators are signaling
The day’s price action fits a familiar pattern: a futures-driven selloff that applies pressure through derivatives markets, while spot buyers step in to absorb a portion of the supply. This dynamic can soften the impact of downward moves and help keep the market anchored near key support levels. In the current setup, the orderbook shows persistent selling pressure beginning around $77,700, with asks thickening between $78,000 and $80,000. Such a configuration implies that buyers may need to sustain higher bids or for new liquidity to emerge to push through the upper band of the range.
From a structural standpoint, the $74,000 support zone remains a critical anchor, with the market’s ability to defend that level likely shaping near-term trajectory. If buyers can absorb selling pressure and push above the $78,000 to $80,000 zone, the next test would be whether new demand surfaces to sustain a breakout or if the market reverts to the established range highs and rebalances liquidity at those levels. Hyblock’s reference to concentrated liquidity pockets suggests that the market could hinge on how quickly liquidity rehomogenizes around those clusters, potentially influencing the speed and sustainability of any breakout attempt.
For traders, the combination of a defined range, visible liquidity clusters, and notable TWAP activity from a major whale creates a nuanced backdrop. The concentration of liquidity near $75,675–$75,700 could act as a magnet, drawing price toward that pocket if the market weakens. Conversely, persistent demand beyond the $78,000–$80,000 area would require fresh liquidity and a shift in orderbook depth to sustain a sustained move higher.
What this means for traders and investors
Investors should watch three intertwined signals: the persistence of the $74,000 support, the ability to thread through the $78,000–$80,000 resistance band, and the evolving liquidity landscape around the identified clusters. If the market continues to absorb futures-driven selling while spot demand remains relatively steady, there could be a setup for a cautious rally. However, a failure to clear the $78,000–$80,000 zone may re-emphasize the range-bound regime and direct attention to the liquidity magnets around $75,675–$75,700.
The presence of a notable TWAP-driven accumulation by a large holder adds another layer of consideration for sentiment and risk management. While a single pattern in BTC behavior is not predictive on its own, sustained buying pressure at regular intervals could provide a floor for prices even when derivatives markets tilt bearish in the near term.
As market participants digest these dynamics, the next important waypoint is how orderbook depth evolves around key levels. The depth signals—sellers appearing near $77,700 and thicker asks between $78,000 and $80,000—suggest a test of supply at the upper end of the current range. A clear move through that resistance zone would likely require a combination of renewed spot demand and a shift in liquidity distribution that benefits buyers stepping in with size.
For reference, readers can review related market coverage that discusses liquidation activity surrounding BTC price moves and how such episodes shape liquidity expectations in the near term. Earlier reporting noted that liquidations have been a feature of recent moves and underscores why understanding liquidity topology is essential for navigating volatility in this market.
In a broader sense, today’s observations reinforce a common theme: Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term direction remains tied to the tug-of-war between futures-driven supply and spot-side demand, with liquidity clusters acting as a critical barometer for whether the market can muster a sustained move beyond the current range.
What to watch next: if BTC can sustain bids above the key ceiling and tip through the $80,000 mark, a fresh wave of liquidity-driven momentum could emerge. If not, the probability of another test of the $74,000 support and renewed liquidity negotiations remains high, keeping traders cautious in the weeks ahead.
Crypto World
Where crypto founders are incorporating in 2026
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
MiCA enforcement reshapes EU crypto as ESMA register reveals 204 authorized CASPs and leading jurisdictions emerge.
Summary
- MiCA regulation now standardizes EU crypto licensing, with ESMA’s register tracking 204 authorized CASPs and their services.
- Crypto firms are assessed on real authorization data, revealing which EU jurisdictions successfully issue MiCA licenses.
- MiCA CASP licensing typically costs €200K–€475K in the first year and takes 6–9 months, with application quality as the main approval driver.
The transitional period is closing and the guessing is over. With MiCA — the EU’s single rulebook for crypto-asset services — now in force, the ESMA Interim MiCA Register works as a live scoreboard of where crypto businesses are actually incorporating.
Instead of trusting marketing claims about which jurisdiction is “crypto-friendly,” founders can read the register directly: who got authorized, for which services, and how far their EU passport reaches. Drawing on the current snapshot of 204 authorized CASPs, here is the map as it stands — four EU jurisdictions worth attention, and the two credible non-EU alternatives.
The state of play: One license, twenty-seven markets
MiCA’s core promise is the entire reason the EU dominates this conversation: a single CASP authorization, granted by one national competent authority (NCA), passports across all 27 Member States. Authorize once, notify the rest, operate everywhere. No non-EU regime offers a comparable single-application route into a market this large — and founders are responding. Of the 204 CASPs on the register, 51 were authorized in 2026 alone (about a quarter, in under five months), and 91 firms now passport into 27 or more markets. Home-state choice is heavily concentrated:
| Home Member State | Authorised CASPs | Profile |
| Germany (BaFin) | 55 | Largest market |
| Netherlands (AFM) | 25 | Exchange-heavy |
| France (AMF) | 17 | Institutional |
| Malta (MFSA) | 13 | Exchange magnet |
| Cyprus (CySEC) | 12 | Consumer apps |
| Ireland (CBI) | 12 | Payments / scale |
| Czech Republic (CNB) | 7 | Fast riser |
| Luxembourg (CSSF) | 7 | Institutional |
| Lithuania (LB) | 6 | Startup default |
| Estonia (EFSA) | 1 | Sharp reversal |
Source: ESMA Interim MiCA Register, live snapshot as of 22 May 2026 (204 CASPs total).
Germany leads on count, but volume isn’t fit. BaFin is thorough, German-language, and slow — sensible for an institution, rarely the right first move for a lean startup. The instructive story is in the smaller jurisdictions, where the trade-offs between speed, substance, and credibility are sharpest.
The four EU jurisdictions worth a founder’s attention
Malta — The exchange magnet
Malta is where the recognizable crypto-native exchanges went. The MFSA has authorized OKX, Crypto.com, Gemini, Gate, Blockchain.com and BVNK among 13 CASPs, plus a disproportionate share of full trading-platform (Class 3) authorizations. Its edge is institutional memory: it regulated crypto years before MiCA, so the MFSA understands exchange models and banking is acclimatized to crypto clients. The trade-off is real substance expectations.
Best for: funded exchanges that want to sit alongside the majors.
Lithuania — The startup default
Lithuania remains the pragmatic first choice for startups. The Bank of Lithuania accepts English, runs one of the faster EU processes (3–5 months), and offers a cost-effective base with a deep fintech ecosystem; authorized CASPs include Robinhood, CoinGate and Nuvei (the license holder behind Simplex). Its modest MiCA count understates its appetite — most of its large VASP-era base is mid-conversion to full CASP status.
Best for: first-time founders who want speed, English, and a regulator that has seen the model.
Estonia — The cautionary reversal
Estonia is the register’s biggest surprise. Once the undisputed capital of EU crypto licensing, it now shows just one MiCA-authorized CASP. An old VASP license doesn’t convert automatically into CASP authorization — firms must requalify in full — and the EFSA pairs that with strict substance enforcement. The lesson generalizes: a historically light-touch jurisdiction is not an easy MiCA jurisdiction, and substance — real local management — is now the binding constraint everywhere.
Best for: firms prepared to build genuine substance, not a mailbox.
Czech Republic — The fast riser
The Czech Republic shows how fast the map still moves: zero MiCA CASPs in February, seven today — ahead of Lithuania on count. The CNB is pragmatic, the process quick and affordable, English accepted, and Prague helps with hiring. The register is dominated by local rather than global brands, making it a low-friction base rather than a prestige address.
Best for: cost-conscious founders who value a central EU location and an early-mover window.
At a glance
| Jurisdiction | Typical SLA | Language | Substance | Best fit |
| Malta | 6–10 mo | English | High | Funded exchanges |
| Lithuania | 3–5 mo | English | Moderate | Startups, fast launch |
| Estonia | 4–8 mo | English | High | Substance-ready firms |
| Czech Rep. | 4–6 mo | English | Moderate | Cost-conscious, CE base |
Estimates reflect typical conditions and vary by service scope and applicant readiness.
When the EU isn’t the answer: Dubai and Singapore
MiCA’s passport is decisive when customers are European. When they’re not, paying for 27-market access that won’t be used — and meeting EU substance and capital rules — can be the wrong trade. Two non-EU hubs sit at opposite ends of the openness spectrum.
Dubai (VARA) — The open door
VARA was the world’s first regulator dedicated solely to virtual assets and runs the most explicitly welcoming major regime. It licenses on an activity basis (exchange, broker-dealer, custody, lending, advisory, transfer/settlement), with its Rulebook updated to v2.0 in mid-2025; the full process runs about 4–7 months. Pull factors: 100% foreign ownership, no personal income tax (with free-zone corporate-tax advantages), and a government treating digital assets as a national strategy. The catch — Dubai gives you the UAE and a global address, not an EU passport, and VARA covers the mainland and free zones but not the DIFC (regulated by the DFSA).
Best for: global or MENA-focused firms wanting speed and tax efficiency.
Singapore (MAS) — The prestige filter
Singapore is the opposite: top-tier reputation, deliberately rationed. Crypto is regulated on an activity basis under the Payment Services Act (Standard vs Major Payment Institution licenses). MAS has issued only a few dozen DPT licenses. Crucially, the DTSP regime under the FSMA (from 30 June 2025) now captures Singapore entities serving only overseas customers — and MAS has said plainly the bar is high and it will generally not license them; operating without a license risks penalties up to SGD 250,000 and/or three years’ imprisonment. A poor fit for a quick offshore setup; excellent for a substantive Asia-Pacific operation.
Best for: well-capitalized firms with a genuine APAC presence.
A simple way to choose
- Where customers are? EU-facing → MiCA, almost always. Global/MENA → Dubai. APAC with substance → Singapore.
- What services? Custody/exchange (Class 2, €125k) and trading platforms (Class 3, €150k) carry the heaviest load; advisory and order-routing (Class 1, €50k) are lighter.
- How much substance can be built? Every credible regime now demands real local management. If you can’t staff it, Estonia-style rejections await.
- Speed vs prestige? Lithuania and Czechia optimize for speed and cost; Malta, Luxembourg, and Singapore for standing.
Cost, timeline, and getting it right
Budget honestly: a MiCA CASP typically costs €200,000–€475,000 in year one (capital, incorporation, legal, MLRO, office, IT/security, NCA fees), on a realistic 6–9 month timeline for exchange-plus-custody scope. The biggest lever on both is application quality — incomplete dossiers, generic AML policies and template IT-security frameworks are the top causes of stalled or rejected applications, and a rejection costs three to six months.
The register’s clearest signal is that winning jurisdictions reward preparation, not optimism. Matching the right home state to your model, building substance from day one, and filing a regulator-ready package is what separates a four-month approval from a year of back-and-forth. This is where a specialized crypto licensing consultancy earns its fee — turning the live register into a jurisdiction and application strategy that fits, across EU and non-EU routes.
To explore the options, visit the official website.
Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.
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