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Crypto Forensics Got Smarter, But AI Scammers Got There First

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Crypto Forensics Got Smarter, But AI Scammers Got There First

Being an entrepreneur and investor means I sit on the other side of many pitches. I get decks on my desk built around roadmaps and teams that swear their traction is real. 

My job is to figure out which parts of those pitches survive contact with the blockchain. So when I tell you the detection side of this industry has genuinely improved, I’m not repeating a vendor’s pitch deck.

Blockchain forensics platforms like Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and Elliptic have frozen or recovered an estimated $34 billion in illicit funds. More than 45 regulators worldwide now use these tools as standard practice. They help recover stolen money, traced through wallet clustering and entity attribution that are good enough to hold up in court.

Blockchain Forensics. Source: Coinlaw

Thanks to AI, newer generations of these tools do more than trace money after it’s already moved. Today, there are predictive platforms that claim to flag a wallet before it acts at all. 

They score behavior against 50+ features and retrain daily. One vendor claims a 98% accuracy score across 14 million wallets. We’ve got rug-pull scanners sitting directly inside AI trading agents, checking liquidity locks, freeze authority, and deployer history in about five seconds. 

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One such service reported scanning over 881,000 token addresses and flagging 271,000 as high-risk. There are even wallet-clustering tools that spot a “sleeper” address that sat dormant for years and only sprang to life right before a liquidation — the digital version of noticing someone’s been casing your street.

So if you only read the vendor pages, you’d walk away thinking crypto fraud is basically solved, because we now have this small army of machine-learning models watching every chain, every wallet, and every transaction around the clock. 

Then you check what that same machine-learning era has done to the other side of the ledger.

The Numbers Behind AI Crypto Scams

According to Chainalysis, total crypto scam and fraud-related losses for 2025 sit at roughly $17 billion, up from $9.9 billion the previous year. The FBI’s own figure for crypto fraud over the same period is $11.36 billion in the US alone, a 22% jump year-on-year.

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Those are the numbers that make it onto a panel slide. But the one that actually changed how I run due diligence is this: Chainalysis found that AI-powered scams were 4.5x more profitable than traditional ones. 

Same con, same target, but with AI, scammers can manufacture fake support agents, fake investors, or trusted insiders at scale.

76% of AI Scams are High-Value and High-Volume. Source:  Chainalysis

Lior Aizik, co-founder and Chief Operating Officer at crypto exchange XBO, has publicly warned that impersonation scams are increasing and becoming more sophisticated industry-wide. His rule of thumb is simple: never transfer your crypto to anyone you can’t verify, especially if the request comes wrapped in urgency and secrecy.

Impersonation fraud — criminals posing as a bank, an investor, or a crypto influencer — posted 1,400% year-on-year growth. Scammers now use AI to run expensive, targeted cons on people they’ve profiled first, rather than the cheap, high-volume spray-and-pray approach they used before. 

That pushed the average payment size sharply higher, from $782 in 2024 to $2,764 in 2025, a 253% increase. I take this personally, because investors and operators with any public profile are exactly who gets cloned.

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Here’s the uncomfortable part: while defensive tooling has gotten dramatically better, the offensive results have gotten better too. 

It’s like a generative adversarial network, where the generator and discriminator share a rivalry that improves the whole model continuously. 

Both offensive and defensive tools draw from the same well of AI capability. Right now, that well favors the first mover, not whoever builds the better model in isolation.

Why Better Detection Keeps Losing the Race

The honest answer is that forensic tools are built for detective work, not prediction. For an investigation to happen, a crime needs to have been committed. 

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You need a victim who has already lost money before you can trace a pattern visible enough to flag. Even the predictive models that claim to catch a rug pull before it happens are trained on yesterday’s scams — and tomorrow’s scam is being designed by someone who read the same training data.

This became clear to me in real time with the FBI’s NexFundAI sting: the fake honeypot token federal agents created to catch wash traders. 

A day after the DOJ announced arrests tied to the operation, someone cloned the exact smart contract and launched a copycat token, making $127,000 in a single day using the same tactics the FBI had just exposed in court documents.

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Any LP who asked me whether “the worst behavior in this market was finally getting cleaned up” would have had their answer within twenty-four hours. 

The FBI operation became the blueprint for the attacker. Every disclosure that helps the defender also hands the attacker a working template — and attackers read faster than regulators patch.

The Attack Side Just Got Cheaper and Faster

You can see the same asymmetry in how little effort an attack now takes. Software developer Peter Steinberger built a popular open-source project that lets you run an AI assistant on your computer with full system access via apps like Telegram, WhatsApp, and Discord. 

The product had to be rebranded after a trademark dispute.

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Within minutes of the rebrand announcement, someone had hijacked his old GitHub and X accounts and used them to launch and pump a token that reached a $16 million market cap before crashing over 90%. 

No malware, no stolen keys. Just someone fast enough to exploit a gap in attention that no forensic tool was watching for. The tools weren’t watching because nothing illegal had happened yet.

When the AI Agent Is the One Getting Rugged

It’s not just humans falling for this that worries me, because so many of the pitches I get are some version of “let our AI agent trade for you.” Those agents can lose money on your behalf too. 

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A developer described how an AI agent on Solana bought a token that rugged 94% after twenty minutes, costing the agent’s wallet $12,000. 

On investigation, the token had freeze authority enabled, the top 10 holders controlled 91% of the supply. The deployer had already launched three previous scam tokens.

Every one of those red flags was supposed to be checkable in seconds by the detection tools I’ve described here. But the agent didn’t check. It simply saw a token and a price and bought it — because nobody wired the safety layer to the decision layer. 

That’s the exact failure mode I now stress-test in every agent-based fund pitch that crosses my desk.

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The Part No Tool Can Fix

What worries me most is that some of this damage never touches a smart contract at all. I have a public profile and a following, which makes me exactly the kind of face that gets cloned. 

In May, it was reported that a woman in Guelph, Ontario, lost $14,000 to scammers after thinking she was speaking with YouTuber Mr Beast about a crypto investment. She wasn’t. Mr Beast has been fighting AI-generated videos that use his likeness to push fake giveaways for years.

Forensic tools don’t flag these interactions, because nothing about them touches the chain until the money is already moving. The fraud happens in a video call, in a moment of trust. By the time a transaction exists for an analytics platform to score, the decision that costs the victim has already been made.

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AI has gotten better at manufacturing that false trust faster than it has gotten at flagging it. And that’s where most of the $17 billion actually went.

AI Crypto Scams: So Who’s Actually Winning?

Neither side.

That’s the most honest answer I can give. Both sets of tools, forensic and predictive, are real. The recoveries are real. Dismissing them because fraud has also grown would be its own kind of dishonesty. 

But “real and improving” isn’t the same as “ahead.” The 2025 data is clear: in dollar terms, offense has improved faster than defense.

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If there’s one reason for that, it’s this. Detection tools mainly answer the question “is this wallet suspicious?” — and that question is only asked after someone decides to check. 

Then there are cases like Guelph, where there’s no wallet to scan in the first place. AI has made those cases more common, which is why I’ve stopped treating AI as a selling point in any pitch and started treating it as the first thing I want to stress-test.

The blockchain can confirm a wallet’s history. It can’t confirm a phone call,

The post Crypto Forensics Got Smarter, But AI Scammers Got There First appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock Plunges 17% Following Meta CEO’s AI Investment Remarks

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AAOI Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • Shares of AAOI plummeted 17% following Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s remarks about the company’s 2026 restructuring challenges
  • The stock maintains remarkable gains of 205% year-to-date and 320% over 12 months, crushing Nvidia’s performance by over 200 points in 2026
  • Ariose Capital Management acquired 104,000 shares valued at approximately $8.8 million during Q1, positioning it as their 6th-largest investment
  • Company insiders have offloaded 500,215 shares totaling roughly $86.7 million in the past three months
  • Wall Street maintains a Hold consensus rating with a $113.80 average price target, though Rosenblatt stands firm with a Buy rating at $220

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) experienced one of its most brutal trading sessions in 2026 on Thursday, plummeting 17% after comments from Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg sent shockwaves through the photonics industry.


AAOI Stock Card
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc., AAOI

The stock began Friday’s trading at $120.95, a steep decline from the $140-plus levels it commanded earlier in the week.

During his remarks, Zuckerberg expressed continued optimism that Meta would observe more tangible returns from artificial intelligence expenditures in the next three to six months. However, he also admitted that the company’s 2026 restructuring efforts and workforce reductions hadn’t proceeded as “perfectly smooth” as hoped. These comments were sufficient to spark a widespread selloff throughout AI infrastructure stocks.

Companies in the photonics space, including Lumentum and Coherent Corp (COHR), experienced similar sharp declines that day.

While Thursday’s decline was painful, perspective is crucial. AAOI shares remain elevated by more than 205% year-to-date and over 320% during the trailing 12 months. Nvidia (NVDA), in contrast, shows approximately 3% gains in 2026. That represents a performance differential exceeding 200 percentage points.

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Applied Optoelectronics manufactures high-speed optical transceivers essential for connecting GPU clusters within artificial intelligence data centers. As cloud giants accelerated their AI infrastructure investments, AAOI emerged as one of the market’s most explosive momentum plays. This popularity brings heightened expectations — and minimal patience for uncertainty.

Institutional Interest Remains Strong

Despite recent price swings, institutional money managers continue building positions. Ariose Capital Management revealed a fresh stake of 104,000 AAOI shares during the first quarter, worth roughly $8.8 million. This position now ranks as the firm’s 6th-largest holding, accounting for approximately 5.9% of its total portfolio.

Additional firms such as Allworth Financial, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, and Krilogy Financial have similarly established or expanded positions in recent periods. Institutional ownership now stands at 61.70% of total shares outstanding.

Executive Stock Sales Paint Contrasting Picture

While institutional buyers accumulate shares, company executives have been actively reducing their stakes. During the previous three months, insiders disposed of 500,215 shares valued at approximately $86.7 million.

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Board member Cynthia Delaney liquidated 56,575 shares at $189.23 per share in late May — representing a 48.68% reduction of her holdings. Insider Hung-Lun Chang sold 40,329 shares at $170.60 each in June through a predetermined 10b5-1 trading arrangement.

Insider ownership currently represents just 3.80% of the company.

Regarding analyst coverage, Rosenblatt Securities maintained its Buy recommendation and $220 price objective as recently as June 22. Raymond James reaffirmed its Outperform stance on June 10. Wall Street Zen represents the bearish outlier, issuing a Sell rating in April. The consensus recommendation remains at Hold with a mean price target of $113.80 — significantly below the stock’s pre-Thursday trading level.

The company’s latest quarterly results, released May 7, revealed Q1 revenue of $151.14 million — representing a 51.3% year-over-year increase but falling short of the $156.98 million analyst projection. Earnings per share registered at -$0.07, missing the -$0.05 consensus forecast. Management provided Q2 2026 EPS guidance ranging from -$0.03 to $0.03.

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The 12-month trading range extends from $18.50 to $233.67, while the stock exhibits a beta of 3.69 — a figure that illustrates its extreme volatility characteristics.

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200+ Brands, 100+ Speakers Confirmed for Forex Expo Dubai 2026

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200+ Brands, 100+ Speakers Confirmed for Forex Expo Dubai 2026

Dubai, United Arab Emirates, July 1st, 2026, Financewire

The 22-23 September 2026 gathering at Dubai World Trade Centre will bring together 20,000+ verified traders, IBs/Affiliates, brokers, liquidity providers, and HNIs for two days of networking, client acquisition, and partnership opportunities.

Distinguished brands take centre stage

More than 200 brands have confirmed their participation at Forex Expo Dubai 2026, including Exness, VT Markets, ADSS, ATFX, Vantage, XM, CFI, Multibank, SwissQuote, Capital.com, Plus500 and many others from across the trading and fintech ecosystem.

Representing brokerages, fintech companies, technology providers, payment solution providers, and financial services firms, the exhibitor lineup reflects the breadth of businesses operating across today’s financial markets.

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Insights from those leading the industry

The agenda features more than 100 speakers from leading trading, brokerage, fintech, and financial services companies.

Confirmed speakers include Avraam Despoti, Founder and CEO of XM; Sean Bolton, Group Chief Operating Officer of Xoala; Tien Ching, Chief Executive Officer of ACCM; Yasaman Pazooki, Chief Operating Officer of OPO GROUP; and Norayr Djerrahian, Chief Commercial Officer of Hantec Markets with additional speakers to be announced in the coming months.

Sessions will explore market trends, platform innovation, regulatory developments, business growth strategies, and emerging opportunities across the trading and fintech sectors.

Experiences that define the event

Attendees will have the opportunity to meet brokers and service providers directly, compare platforms and trading solutions, discover new technologies, and engage with industry professionals face-to-face.

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The event extends well beyond the exhibition floor. Verified traders and introducing brokers benefit from dedicated seminars, exclusive lounges, and a traders clinic designed for personalised guidance. Pre-event webinars and podcasts further foster a community focused on learning, collaboration, and growth.

The Forex Gala Night brings the IB and affiliate community together for an evening of networking and industry recognition — a highlight for relationship-building beyond business hours. Attendees will also witness the Forex Expo Dubai Awards, which recognize the achievements, influence, innovation, and leadership shaping the future of global trading.

The attendee experience is further enhanced through prize draws across all ticket categories.

About Forex Expo Dubai

Forex Expo Dubai is one of the region’s leading gatherings for the global online trading and fintech industry, bringing together brokerages, fintech innovators, institutional traders, investors, payment solution providers, IBs, affiliates and online trading technology companies under one roof. The expo serves as a platform for industry dialogue, business networking, technology showcases and market-focused conversations shaping the future of modern finance.

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Registration Link : https://bit.ly/4vz1PXb

Contact

Commercial Director

Niyaz Mohamed

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HQMENA

Sales@hqmena.com

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Saylor says Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is losing control

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what it means for BTC

Michael Saylor has said Bitcoin’s next stage may come from changing less at the protocol level while becoming more important across finance. In a new X article titled “Bitcoin Evolves by Not Changing,” the Strategy executive chairman argued that Bitcoin should act as a monetary network, not a fast-moving software platform.

Summary

  • Saylor says ETF, treasury and credit flows now matter more than old miner supply shocks.
  • Crypto.news reported that 21Shares still sees Bitcoin’s four-year cycle as intact despite wider institutional demand.
  • Strategy’s digital credit framework shows how Saylor wants Bitcoin exposure to move through capital markets.

https://twitter.com/saylor/article/2073685745512948011

Saylor said Bitcoin’s base layer should harden while capital markets, apps and institutions build around it. He described Bitcoin as digital capital, with its main role tied to final settlement, reserves and collateral rather than everyday payments.

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Four-year cycle faces a new test

Saylor repeated his view that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is no longer the main market model. The old cycle linked price moves to the halving, which cuts miner rewards and slows new supply.

Crypto.news reported in April that Saylor called the four-year cycle “dead” and said capital flows, bank credit and institutional demand now shape Bitcoin’s long-term price path. In that view, ETF flows, corporate treasury buying and credit products now matter more than miner issuance.

A later crypto.news analysis said the post-halving pattern has weakened as spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional demand changed the market. The report noted that ETF flows can now move more capital than miners produce, making demand shocks harder to read through the old model.

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Capital markets move closer to Bitcoin

Saylor also tied Bitcoin’s next decade to digital credit. He said Bitcoin-backed products could connect the asset to banks, funds, insurers, pensions and companies. In his view, direct Bitcoin ownership will exist beside ETFs, custody platforms, credit products and institutional services.

Strategy’s own business has moved in that direction. On June 29, announced a digital credit capital framework, a USD reserve policy, repurchase programs and a Bitcoin monetization program. The company said it remained committed to Bitcoin as its main treasury reserve asset while using active capital management.

Crypto.news recently reported that Strategy’s model is under pressure after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 and the company’s market value dropped below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Another report said Strategy’s June framework turned a one-off Bitcoin sale into a standing option for capital management.

Doubts remain over the cycle debate

Not all market watchers agree with Saylor’s view. Crypto.news reported that 21Shares still sees Bitcoin’s four-year cycle as intact, even with stronger institutional participation. The asset manager said Bitcoin’s 2025 peak and later decline still followed broad post-halving behavior.

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That disagreement keeps the Bitcoin cycle debate open. Saylor sees a market led by balance sheets, credit and institutional products. Other analysts still see the halving cycle as useful, even if larger investors have changed how price moves.

Saylor also warned that Bitcoin’s base protocol should become harder to change. He said the strongest path is to let innovation move to wallets, custody, Lightning, sidechains and financial products while the base layer handles final settlement.

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Binance outflows triple as ETH withdrawals hit 3-year high

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Binance outflows triple as ETH withdrawals hit 3-year high

Binance recorded about $1.23 billion in net outflows during the week beginning June 29, according to DefiLlama data reported by Cointelegraph. The figure was up 207% from about $400 million in the previous week.

Summary

  • Binance ETH withdrawals hit a three-year high as users moved coins away from the exchange.
  • Weekly Binance outflows tripled to about $1.2b while monthly exits reached nearly $3.2b.
  • Analysts linked the spike to accumulation, MiCA uncertainty and short-term positioning around Ethereum’s rebound.

The exchange also recorded about $3.2 billion in monthly net outflows. The move showed that users were moving more funds away from the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume.

The outflows came as market focus turned to Ethereum withdrawals from Binance. Data from CryptoQuant showed more than 166,000 ETH withdrawal transactions in one day.

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https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/2072980165341401496?s=20

CryptoQuant community analyst Darkfost said the level had not been seen in more than three years. The spike marked the highest Binance ETH withdrawal transaction count since March 2023.

ETH withdrawals point to accumulation

Darkfost said the move “could reflect genuine demand building around the $1,500 level.” He said some investors may have taken exposure and moved funds off the exchange instead of keeping them ready for short-term trading.

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Exchange withdrawals can suggest long-term holding when users move assets into private wallets. Still, the data does not confirm one clear reason. Some withdrawals may also come from short-term positioning, risk control or platform changes.

Crypto.news reported that ETH reclaimed the $1,700 area as ETF inflows returned. The report also said Binance withdrawal spikes pointed to possible accumulation, while rising open interest kept volatility risk active.

Ether also recovered during the same period. Cointelegraph reported that ETH rose about 12.5% over seven days and traded near $1,766 at publication time, while Bitcoin gained about 4.3%.

MiCA rules add pressure on Binance

The withdrawals also came during a key regulatory change in Europe. The European Union’s MiCA framework entered full force on July 1, requiring crypto firms to hold proper authorization to serve users across the bloc.

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Crypto.news reported that Binance reassured EU users as the changes began. Binance said affected users’ assets remained safe and held on a one-to-one basis.

Binance CEO Richard Teng said users would still have access to communicated options, including withdrawals. His comments came after the exchange missed the full MiCA licensing deadline and adjusted some services in the region.

Crypto.news also reported that Binance would suspend most services for EU residents after failing to secure a MiCA license by the deadline. The report said withdrawals remained available and described the move as a suspension, not a permanent exit.

CEX flows remain split

Other centralized exchanges also recorded weekly outflows. Cointelegraph reported that Bitfinex saw about $407.5 million in outflows, while Gate recorded about $214.3 million. OKX and Bybit also posted smaller weekly exits.

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Inflows were more limited and spread across fewer platforms. Crypto.com recorded about $63 million in net inflows, while HashKey Exchange added about $53.3 million. KuCoin, Gemini and Bitvavo also saw smaller inflows.

The flow data showed a split market. Some users moved funds away from large trading venues, while others shifted assets to different platforms. The pattern matched a week shaped by ETH’s rebound, MiCA changes and cautious market positioning.

As of then, Binance’s ETH withdrawal spike remains open to more than one reading. It may show accumulation near lower ETH levels, but it also reflects a market where users are watching regulation, exchange access and short-term price risk closely.

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XRP Surges Over 13% in Early July Amid Regulatory Progress and Strong ETF Demand

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xrp price

Key Highlights

  • XRP jumped more than 13% during the initial three trading days of July, advancing from approximately $1.03 to nearly $1.18.
  • Legislative advancement of the CLARITY Act through the U.S. Senate enhanced positive sentiment surrounding XRP’s regulatory environment.
  • Investment products tracking XRP attracted $6.55M in single-day inflows, with total cumulative inflows reaching $1.49B.
  • Historical data reveals July as a consistently profitable month for XRP, averaging 10.4% gains since 2013.
  • Technical analysis identifies critical resistance at $1.20, while support at $1.15 provides downside protection.

XRP launched into July with impressive momentum, posting gains exceeding 13% within a mere three-day span. The digital asset advanced from lows near $1.03 to approach $1.18, capturing fresh interest from market participants.

xrp price
XRP Price

This upward movement coincided with a wider cryptocurrency market rebound. The aggregate crypto market capitalization increased 0.86% to reach $2.18 trillion. Bitcoin surged beyond $62,000, while Ethereum advanced above $1,700.

Disappointing U.S. employment figures contributed to the bullish market sentiment. The American economy generated merely 57,000 positions in June, significantly undershooting the anticipated 110,000. This development strengthened expectations for more accommodative monetary conditions moving forward.

Market analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) highlighted a significant long-term technical formation via X, identifying an 8.5-year cup and handle pattern emerging on XRP’s price chart. He cautioned that overlooking XRP at the $1 level “could prove costly,” suggesting that sustained Fibonacci support within the handle formation could establish a pathway toward upper resistance zones. His analysis referenced Fibonacci extension targets at $8, $13, and $27.

Legislative Developments Strengthen XRP Sentiment

Advancement of the CLARITY Act through the U.S. Senate emerged as a primary catalyst for XRP’s appreciation. This proposed legislation carries implications for the regulatory classification of digital assets under American law.

Market participants reacted favorably to XRP’s inclusion within the SEC/CFTC Digital Commodities classification framework. This development prompted capital reallocation into XRP positions. Additionally, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen’s financial stake in American Perpetuals Exchange Corporation — an entity associated with Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s son — attracted market attention throughout this timeframe.

Investment Fund Activity Supports Bullish Momentum

XRP-focused investment vehicles registered $6.55M in daily inflows as of July 2. Total cumulative inflows climbed to $1.49B, while net assets under management stood at $987.91M.

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Source: SoSoValue

Spot Bitcoin ETFs similarly reversed their outflow trend on July 2, posting $221.72M in daily net inflows. This marked the conclusion of a 10-day withdrawal period, elevating cumulative net inflows to $51.08B. Ethereum spot ETFs contributed $29.08M in net inflows during the identical session.

Historical performance data compiled by CryptoRank demonstrates July’s track record as a consistently profitable period for XRP across seven consecutive years. Average July performance since 2013 registers at 10.4%. Notably, during July 2020, XRP surged more than 48%.

Examining the four-hour timeframe, XRP traded around $1.1714. The Relative Strength Index registered 79.91, positioning the asset within overbought parameters. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator displayed 0.21, signaling continued accumulation pressure.

Immediate resistance is established at $1.20, where a decisive breakthrough could enable progression toward $1.25. Should prices retract beneath $1.15, the subsequent support zone emerges at $1.10.

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Bitcoin at $1 Million? Ledger Co-Founder Warns It Won’t Be Good News

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US Debt

Ledger co-founder Eric Larchevêque says a Bitcoin (BTC) price of $1 million would not be good news. He argues the level would reflect war, debt crises, and a collapsing fiat system rather than mainstream success.

The comment cuts against a wave of seven-figure forecasts. Larchevêque accepts the destination but rejects the celebration, casting Bitcoin as insurance against disorder rather than a speculative jackpot.

Why a $1 Million Bitcoin Would Signal Trouble

Larchevêque made the argument in a recent interview on the When Shift Happens podcast. He said Bitcoin has little value in a stable world where few people need it.

Its role grows when systems break. He described the asset as a final settlement tool that protects wealth through wars, revolutions, and capital controls.

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That thesis leans on a real backdrop. Governments keep piling on debt, and the US alone now owes more than $39 trillion, a fresh record. Larchevêque sees that kind of borrowing ending in currency failure.

US Debt
US Debt. Source: FiscalData

The meaning also shifts by geography, he added. For someone in Iran, Bitcoin can be a lifeline. For a comfortable saver in France, it can feel abstract.

Bitcoin now trades just below $63,000, leaving any move to $1 million approximately 16 times away. Larchevêque expects that climb, yet dreads the world that would produce it.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

“I think it’s a world with a lot of suffering,” he said.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens 

He offered that answer when asked what a $1 million or $10 million Bitcoin would look like.

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How the Bulls Frame the Same Target

Other forecasters reach $1 million through optimism. VanEck research head Matthew Sigel calls it a base case within about five years, tied to adoption and Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins.

The timing detail matters. Sigel floated that target in May, when Bitcoin traded near $80,000. The token has since slipped to about $63,000, widening the gap to seven figures.

Jan3 chief Samson Mow expects a sudden supply shock he calls an omega candle, a single-day jump above $100,000. Michael Saylor and ARK Invest lean on the same scarcity story, pointing to institutional demand and long-term 2030 targets.

Bitcoin Price Prediction. Source: Ark Invest
Bitcoin Price Prediction. Source: Ark Invest

Larchevêque shares that price conviction and even cites Saylor. He splits from the group on meaning, treating a seven-figure print as a symptom of failure rather than a reward.

“I share the same vision and Michael Saylor that Bitcoin is the best assets possible, you know, globally, historically. And that’s it’s going to be a very good bet in in the future.”

The Ledger founder keeps almost all of his liquid net worth in Bitcoin, framing it as protection instead of profit. He also insists the call is not investment advice.

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The post Bitcoin at $1 Million? Ledger Co-Founder Warns It Won’t Be Good News appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin Just Had Its Worst Month in 4 Years: What’s Next in July?

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2026 hasn’t been bitcoin’s year so far, with the asset posting four (out of six) months in the red. June stands out as the most painful, setting a four-year anti-record.

However, history is on BTC’s side for July, and its start has been quite promising. The question is whether the asset will be able to follow through in the following weeks.

June Bad, July Good?

Before we explore what happened in June, we must go back to the breaking point in May. In the middle of that month, BTC’s price surpassed $82,000, prompting many analysts to speculate that the asset had erased much of its yearly losses and had kickstarted the next bull run.

However, the reality was different as the rejection at that level poured more fuel into the ‘sell in May and go away’ narrative. The culmination took place in June as the cryptocurrency plummeted below $70,000 and even beneath $60,000 on a few occasions for the first time since before the US presidential elections in late 2024.

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After losing roughly $25,000 in weeks, BTC finally showed some early signs of revival and regained some traction by the end of the month. However, it still finished it with a 20.5% drop, making it the worst since June four years ago.

Bitcoin Monthly Returns. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin Monthly Returns. Source: CoinGlass

The chart above demonstrates that July tends to be a more favorable month for BTC, as nine out of the last 13 editions have brought gains. Moreover, each July that has followed a red June has been in the green.

The Factors

The 2026 edition has started on the right foot, with BTC tapping $63,000 this weekend. However, several factors have to improve in the following weeks for the month to finally provide a well-deserved break. First, the record-setting net outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETFs have to stop, which have been halting BTC’s progress for months now.

Second, recent on-chain data showed that real demand from US (and even Korean) investors has been missing, proven by the Coinbase Premium metric. On a more macro level, a potential de-escalation (or a permanent peace deal) in the Middle East would definitely help, as would clearing up the uncertainty around the midterms in the US.

Topping this more positive side, bitcoin recently flashed a few bullish signals after it rebounded past the coveted $60,000 level, and analysts are now eyeing the next major breakout.

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Rekt Capital also weighed in on BTC’s performance in July, suggesting that the cryptocurrency will look to turn the 50-Month EMA (at around $65,000) into resistance.

The post Bitcoin Just Had Its Worst Month in 4 Years: What’s Next in July? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Ledger co-founder says $1m Bitcoin may point to fiat stress

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Ledger co-founder says $1m Bitcoin may point to fiat stress

Ledger co-founder Eric Larchevêque said a future where Bitcoin trades at $1 million, or even $10 million, may not be a healthy one. Wu Blockchain reported that he made the comments in a June 25 interview with When Shift Happens.

Summary

  • Larchevêque framed $1m Bitcoin as a stress signal, not just another bullish market price target.
  • He said Bitcoin matters more when banks, currencies and governments fail to protect personal wealth.
  • Crypto.news reports show debt fears, ETF flows and macro pressure still shape Bitcoin demand

Larchevêque linked a high Bitcoin price to stress in the global money system. He said such a world may include wars, fiat currency failures, debt problems and social unrest. His message was not a simple bullish Bitcoin price call.

https://x.com/WuBlockchain/status/2073482161425109085

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He said “a world where Bitcoin reaches $1 million or even $10 million may not be a good one.” The comment placed the Bitcoin $1 million debate in a wider macro setting, where price gains may reflect fear as much as demand.

Bitcoin as a final settlement asset

Larchevêque said Bitcoin has little use in a perfect world because people would not need it. In his view, Bitcoin becomes more important when trust in banks, currencies and governments weakens.

He described Bitcoin as a final settlement asset and a tool for wealth protection. That view matches a common Bitcoin argument: users value direct ownership most when access to money becomes uncertain.

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He also said Bitcoin does not mean the same thing to everyone. For people in Iran and France, he said, the asset carries different meanings because local risks are different.

Ledger’s background gives the comments added weight in the crypto custody debate. Larchevêque co-founded Ledger in 2014, while Pascal Gauthier later became CEO.

Crypto.news links debate to debt pressure

The comments came as crypto.news reported on similar Bitcoin and macro themes. In a recent report, Bitwise linked Bitcoin demand to rising debt pressure and bond market stress.

That report said Bitwise sees sovereign debt concerns as part of the case for Bitcoin. It also noted that global borrowers face a heavy refinancing calendar in 2026, which could keep attention on fiat liquidity and central bank policy.

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Crypto.news also reported that CZ still sees Bitcoin reaching $1 million over the next decade. His view came even as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows and Bitcoin tested key price levels.

This creates two different readings of the same target. Some market figures treat $1 million Bitcoin as a long-term adoption case. Larchevêque presented it as a warning about the state of fiat money.

ETF flows keep market cautious

Bitcoin has also faced near-term pressure from exchange-traded fund flows. Crypto.news reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw heavy outflows in June, even while large wallets accumulated around 270,000 BTC.

That split shows a market moving in different directions. ETF investors reduced exposure, while large on-chain holders added Bitcoin during weakness. The gap has kept attention on whether institutional demand can return.

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Crypto.news also reported that Bitcoin rebounded near $61,700 after ETF inflows ended a 10-day negative streak. Analysts in that report said BTC needed to reclaim $62,800 and $65,000 to confirm a stronger recovery.

At press time, Larchevêque’s comments add a cautious angle to the Bitcoin $1 million discussion. The price target remains popular, but his view suggests that a fast move to that level may say more about fiat risk than crypto strength.

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Sam Altman ChatGPT AI Predicts Massive Meta Platforms Stock Price Surge by 2026

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Sam Altman ChatGPT AI Predicts Massive Meta Platforms Stock Price Surge by 2026

Sam Altman, ChatGPT AI predicts that Meta stock is at one of the more interesting entry points in years for a stock that has already proven it can trade well above current levels.

The model sees $750 to $900 by December 2026, a range the stock has already visited once this cycle.

The bull case treats Meta as an advertising business that is quietly becoming an AI infrastructure company at the same time. Meta trades near $582 today, and the thesis starts with the core engine that has driven the stock for years, AI-driven ad recommendations compounding revenue quarter after quarter.

Advantage+ advertising tools keep taking market share from competitors, WhatsApp monetization is still in early innings with enormous room to grow, and new AI products are adding layers on top of the existing user base.

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Source: ChatGPT AI Meta Predicts

The model also flags something potentially transformative that most investors have not fully priced in yet. Reports suggest Meta may commercialize its excess AI compute capacity through a cloud business, which would open an entirely new revenue stream beyond advertising and give investors far greater confidence that the massive AI infrastructure spending is generating real long-term returns rather than just burning cash.

If those threads pull together, the model sees a clear path back toward those 2025 highs and beyond.

The bear case comes down to execution risk on a scale that is hard to ignore.

AI capital expenditure has surged to well over $100 billion annually. Reality Labs keeps burning cash without a clear profitability timeline, and any slowdown in digital advertising demand or failure to monetize AI products quickly enough could pressure margins and keep the stock rangebound between $550 and $650 for an extended period instead of breaking out.

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Meta Stock Price Prediction: Meta Knows Exactly What $750 Looks Like Because It Has Already Been There

The daily chart shows Meta at $582.90 after a sharp pullback from highs near $800 set back in the summer of 2025. That peak marked one of the strongest runs in this stock’s entire history before sellers stepped in hard through the second half of last year.

Price found support near $525 in late 2025 before bouncing back toward $750 in early 2026, then rolled over again and has spent most of this year grinding between $550 and $680 in a wide, choppy range.

The most recent leg lower in late June pushed the price back down toward $555 before today’s candle bounced to $582.90, which puts Meta right in the middle of that broader consolidation range.

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Source: Meta Price / Tradingview

Resistance sits first near $630, the level that capped the most recent relief rally attempt, then a much heavier ceiling near $680 where multiple rejections have piled up throughout 2026.

Above that, the $750 level sits as the lower end of the bull case target and also as a prior high from earlier this year, making it a meaningful technical checkpoint before any run toward $800 or $900 becomes realistic.

Support holds near $550, the zone that has absorbed selling pressure multiple times over the past several months. The overall pattern here looks like a stock in a long consolidation phase after an extraordinary run, working off excess valuation rather than breaking down structurally.

Momentum on the daily candles looks indecisive and choppy, without a clear directional trend over the past several months. If Meta can push above $630 and hold it, the path back toward the bull case targets starts to look like a continuation of the longer-term uptrend rather than a stretch into territory this stock has never seen before.

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LiquidChain Is Catching the Attention of META holders: ChatGPT AI Predicts It’s the Next 100x

The rotation is already happening. Most people will only see it in hindsight.

Large-cap crypto is not failing. It is capped. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have been pressing against the same resistance bands for weeks. The macro tailwinds keep getting delayed.

The institutional inflows keep getting pushed to next quarter. Holding assets where the upside depends on catalysts you cannot control is not a strategy. It is waiting.

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A capital that has navigated enough cycles does not wait at resistance. It moves before the destination becomes obvious.

Early-stage infrastructure plays operate on different math entirely. A small enough market cap means a modest rotation produces dramatic price movement. The asymmetry exists because the market has not priced in what is being built yet. That gap between current valuation and what the project is actually worth is where the returns come from.

Multi-chain fragmentation costs DeFi real money every single day. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana run completely isolated liquidity systems with no native way to connect them. Every user moving value between ecosystems absorbs that cost directly in fees, slippage, and failed transactions.

LiquidChain collapses all 3 networks into a single execution layer. One deployment. Full ecosystem access. No cross-chain tax on every interaction.

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The market has not found this yet. That is the entire point.

The presale is at $0.01454 with just over $820,000 raised. Ground floor is not a marketing phrase here. It is a description of where this actually sits in its lifecycle.

Execution is unproven. Adoption is unknown. Those risks are real and worth naming directly. Established assets offer a smoother ride toward a ceiling that is already visible. This offers an earlier seat

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Binance Net Outflows Triple to $1.23B as ETH Withdrawals Hit 3-Year High

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Crypto Breaking News

Binance has seen a pronounced shift toward withdrawal activity, with weekly net outflows jumping to $1.23 billion—more than doubling from the week prior—while Ethereum withdrawals rose to their highest level in over three years. The pattern is drawing renewed attention from on-chain analysts because it suggests large volumes of ETH may be moving off exchanges, even as ether’s price begins to stabilize.

Data from DefiLlama, as reviewed by Cointelegraph, shows Binance recorded $1.23 billion in net outflows for the week beginning June 29. That figure represents a 207% increase versus about $400 million in net outflows during the preceding week, while monthly net outflows totaled roughly $3.2 billion. At the same time, CryptoQuant community analyst Darkfost reported that Binance’s Ethereum withdrawal transactions reached a multi-year peak—over 166,000 withdrawals in a single day.

Key takeaways

  • Binance’s weekly net outflows rose to $1.23 billion in the week starting June 29, up 207% from roughly $400 million the week before.
  • Ethereum withdrawal transactions on Binance hit the highest level in more than three years, exceeding 166,000 withdrawals in one day.
  • Analysts link the withdrawals to both potential accumulation behavior and market/regulatory uncertainty tied to the EU’s MiCA transition.
  • Other major centralized exchanges also posted outflows, while inflows appear more scattered across several platforms.

Ethereum withdrawals intensify as exchange balances change

The most striking element of the move is the concentration on Ethereum. Darkfost, writing for the CryptoQuant community, said Binance ETH withdrawal transactions reached their highest point in more than three years, indicating that the surge is not just routine exchange movement. The analyst also pointed to specific dynamics that could be influencing investor decisions around the time of the withdrawals.

Cointelegraph previously noted regulatory uncertainty connected to the European Union’s application timeline and enforcement environment as the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework comes into focus. Darkfost suggested this uncertainty—alongside near-term positioning by traders—could help explain why more users are pulling ETH off Binance.

Even if some withdrawals are consistent with accumulation behavior, the key takeaway for traders and long-term investors is what the directionality implies: increased transfers from exchange custody typically reduce readily available liquidity on that venue. While that does not automatically translate into immediate price gains, it can affect how markets absorb sells and buys.

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Withdrawal surge coincides with ether’s modest rebound

CryptoQuant data highlighted a timing alignment between exchange activity and price performance. Darkfost noted that Binance’s ETH withdrawals represented the sharpest rise in withdrawal transactions recorded on the exchange since March 2023, occurring as ether posted a modest rebound of around 10% over two days.

In a separate framing, Darkfost characterized the withdrawal surge as potentially reflecting genuine demand building around the $1,500 area. The rationale is that some participants may prefer to hold ETH in self-custody rather than keep exposure on an exchange, behavior that more often aligns with longer-term accumulation than short-term trading.

Price data at the time of publication suggested ether’s recovery broader in scope. According to CoinGecko, ETH rose about 12.5% over the past seven days, trading around $1,766. Over the same period, Bitcoin edged up approximately 4.3% to about $62,925, also based on CoinGecko’s figures.

Centralized exchange flows: outflows lead, inflows remain uneven

Binance was not acting in isolation. DefiLlama’s exchange flow data indicates that centralized exchange net flows skewed toward outflows across multiple platforms over the same week. Bitfinex recorded $407.5 million in outflows, followed by Gate with $214.3 million. OKX saw $87.1 million in outflows and Bybit posted $78.4 million, underscoring that the broader pattern is not limited to a single venue.

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On the opposite side of the ledger, inflows were present but more fragmented. Crypto.com led with about $63 million in net inflows, while HashKey Exchange added roughly $53.3 million. Additional inflows appeared across KuCoin (about $22.1 million), Gemini (about $17.4 million), and Bitvavo (about $15.8 million).

For market participants, this mix can matter because it hints at where new risk might be concentrating. When outflows dominate across multiple large exchanges, it often suggests a shift in custody preferences—either toward self-custody or toward venues not classified as “top movers” by weekly net flows.

Why this matters as regulatory pressure and market positioning evolve

The withdrawal surge comes at a time when European crypto market participants have been adjusting to regulatory uncertainty around MiCA. Darkfost specifically cited uncertainty related to MiCA and short-term positioning as possible contributors to the elevated withdrawal activity. While the exact share of withdrawals driven by regulation versus trading strategy is not provable from the available data alone, the combination is consistent with what investors frequently do during transitional periods: reduce exposure to venues where compliance timelines or operational constraints may become clearer.

At the same time, it would be premature to interpret every outflow event as a bullish signal. Some withdrawals can reflect operational transfers, liquidity management, or rebalancing between services. Still, the scale—particularly the jump in daily ETH withdrawal transaction counts to a level not seen in more than three years—means investors will likely watch whether the trend continues and whether it corresponds to further shifts in exchange balances.

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Next, readers should focus on whether Binance’s ETH outflows remain elevated over subsequent weeks and whether similar patterns appear on other major venues, while also tracking ongoing developments in EU MiCA implementation that can alter how and where users prefer to hold assets.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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