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Crypto market outlook as Trump says Iran’s proposal is “not enough” to avert strikes

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‘Tariffs’ chatter surges after Trump’s announcement on global exports

The crypto market fell 2% to $2.42 trillion after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran’s proposal to end the war was not enough and warned that Tehran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline or face strikes on key infrastructure.

Summary

  • Crypto market cap fell 2% to $2.42 trillion after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal and warned of strikes if Hormuz is not reopened.
  • Iran declined a 45-day ceasefire push while demanding sanctions relief and war compensation, as a Tuesday deadline for U.S. action approaches.
  • Bitcoin pulled back below $69K and major altcoins slipped 1–2% as traders turned cautious ahead of potential escalation or de-escalation.

In a sternly worded statement, Trump warned that an Iranian proposal to end the ongoing war in the Middle East is “not enough” to call off his strikes against Iranian infrastructure unless Tehran commits to settling its disputes by reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

“It’s a significant proposal. It’s a significant step. It’s not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” Trump told reporters. He added that intermediaries “are negotiating now”.

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The Strait of Hormuz, which is a strategic gateway for global energy supplies, was effectively blocked as a result of Iran’s attacks in the Gulf region after U.S. and Iranian forces clashed. This has led oil prices to skyrocket and has sparked widespread fears of runaway inflation hurting both crypto and traditional markets.

Trump said the Tuesday deadline for U.S. attacks on Iranian infrastructures would continue to be set in motion unless Iran accepts a deal to reopen the strait, allowing free trade in the region.

Earlier on Monday, Pakistan had put forward a 45-day ceasefire proposal after weeks of trying to broker a diplomatic solution to the war between Iran and the U.S. and Israel.

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Iran had reportedly rejected the proposal while pushing for a permanent end to the war. Other demands made by the Iranian government include the removal of sanctions from the central bank and compensation for wartime damages incurred.

While the U.S. government has reviewed the proposal, Trump has so far refused to blink, with war continuing as of press time. Trump has reportedly reiterated that the deadline for compliance still stands at 8 pm Washington time on Tuesday. If Iran fails to agree to a deal, the U.S. could bomb Iran ‘back to the stone ages’.

The crypto market rose to a peak of $2.47 trillion on Monday as reports of Iran considering a proposal to bring a permanent end to the war first surfaced. Investors took this as a sign of de-escalation of the war situation.

However, after Trump confirmed that the U.S. would go forward with its strikes, the market tanked back to $2.43 trillion, erasing some of the gains from the previous day as investors booked profits.

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Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest crypto asset that is currently strongly influencing other crypto assets due to the war situation, rallied past the $70,000 psychological resistance on Tuesday. However, the asset has fallen back sharply, trading at $68,546 at press time.

Ethereum (ETH), BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP), and Solana (SOL) were down 1-2%, showing traders remain hesitant as they await more clarity about how the standoff ends today.

On one hand, a potential confirmation of peace or de-escalation of the current Middle East conflict could result in a jump in investor appetite for risk assets, thus benefiting cryptocurrencies.

On the other hand, if the U.S. carries forward with the strikes on Iran, it can result in a massive flight to safety and a deeper correction across the entire crypto market.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin up, software stocks down since the war began

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Bitcoin up, software stocks down since the war began

Since the outbreak of the war with Iran on Feb. 28, bitcoin has started to diverge from software equities, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), serving as a useful proxy for the sector.

Bitcoin has been one of the strongest-performing assets during this period, rising more than 5% and trading back above $69,000, including a gain of more than 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

IGV, in contrast, has fallen more than 2% since the conflict began. That gap suggests investors are starting to treat bitcoin and software stocks differently, at least in the near term.

Until recently, the two had moved closely together. Over the past three months, bitcoin fell 26% and the ETF lost 23%. Year to date, both are lower by about 21%. Over five years, bitcoin has gained 18% compared with 10% for IGV. In other words, both have moved in the same direction, but the cryptocurrency has done so with much greater volatility.

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That is also clear in their declines. Bitcoin had fallen roughly 50% from its October all-time high, while IGV, which peaked slightly earlier, fell about 35% from its own top.

The correlation data tells the same story. From early February, bitcoin and IGV were almost perfectly correlated, close to 1.0, meaning they were moving nearly in lockstep. After the war began, that relationship broke down sharply, with the correlation dropping to 0.13, a level that signals near decoupling, before rebounding to around 0.7. The figure can range between -1.0 and +1.0, with 0 indicating no correlation at all.

Why have software stocks been hit harder?

IGV is heavily weighted toward large software and services companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL) and Salesforce (CRM). Investors are increasingly worried that artificial intelligence will compress margins and valuation multiples across software, especially in Software as a Service (SaaS), as competition rises and barriers to entry fall. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading more like a macro asset, benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty.

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Bitcoin Trader Eyes Bear Market Bottom as Stochastic RSI Mimics 2023

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Bitcoin Trader Eyes Bear Market Bottom as Stochastic RSI Mimics 2023

Bitcoin (BTC) is copying the end of its 2022 bear market “nearly perfectly,” according to a new BTC price analysis.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin stochastic RSI values are “nearly perfectly” repeating the end of its last bear market, new analysis claims.

  • Both recent local bottoms and the current rebound echo conditions from three years ago.

  • Standard RSI is already on the radar for a potential BTC price bottom signal.

Bitcoin stochastic RSI echoes 2023 rebound

In an X post on Monday, crypto trader Quantum Ascend revealed copycat moves playing out on Bitcoin’s stochastic relative strength index (RSI) indicator.

Stochastic RSI, also known as “stoch RSI,” is a derivative of traditional RSI — a classic leading indicator that helps traders identify overbought and oversold conditions, as well as BTC price trend changes.

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Like its standard counterpart, stoch RSI flashes “oversold” price signals when it drops below 30/100 on its scale, with “overbought” entering when its value is above 70/100.

Stoch RSI moves between those two zones much more quickly, but Quantum Ascend sees a key long-term bull signal now locking in.

“RSI at the EXACT SAME point on the Daily as it was in 2022,” he told X followers.

BTC price and stochastic RSI comparison. Source: Quantum Ascend/X

An accompanying comparative chart shows stoch RSI making a double bottom along with price before both surged higher in early 2023. At the time, BTC/USD had recently set a multiyear low of $15,600 — a level that ended up forming the bear-market bottom.

Now, Quantum Ascend says, the repeat performance is “playing out nearly perfectly.”

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“Breaking above the EXACT SAME level (blue line). At the EXACT SAME time,” he added.

The chart reveals that stoch RSI is now attempting to clear its 50/100 midpoint after two local lows in late January and late March, respectively.

BTC price counts down to bear flag decision

RSI signals have already been firing in 2026 despite lackluster BTC price strength.

Related: First real bull signal since 2025? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

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As Cointelegraph reported, eyes are on weekly standard RSI to print a bullish divergence with price, again mimicking early 2023.

At the time, weekly RSI set its lowest level on record — one so far not matched in 2026, per data from TradingView.

BTC/USD one-week chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin still faces bearish hurdles to recovery, with traders concerned about a bear-flag breakdown repeating on the daily chart.

“In few days we will understand if the pattern is repeating or not,” analyst Aksel Kibar wrote on X over the weekend.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X