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CryptoQuant Places Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom at $55,000 as Key Indicators Show Extended Correction Ahead

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CryptoQuant Places Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom at $55,000 as Key Indicators Show Extended Correction Ahead

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin trades 25% above its realized price of $55,000, which historically marks bear market bottoms
  • February 5 sell-off triggered $5.4 billion in daily losses, the largest since March 2023’s $5.8 billion event
  • Monthly realized losses at 0.3 million BTC remain far below 2022 bear market bottom of 1.1 million BTC
  • Long-term holders selling near breakeven versus 30-40% losses typical at previous bear market cycle lows

 

Bitcoin’s bear market floor sits around $55,000, according to blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant. The firm’s latest assessment suggests the cryptocurrency remains more than 25% above this critical support level.

CryptoQuant analysts note that bear market bottoms require several months to establish rather than forming through sudden capitulation events.

This analysis comes as Bitcoin trades significantly higher than key historical support zones that marked previous cycle lows.

Realized Price Indicates Extended Bottoming Process

The realized price metric serves as CryptoQuant’s primary indicator for determining Bitcoin’s potential bottom. This measure calculates the average price at which all coins last moved on the blockchain.

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Historical data shows this metric provided strong support during past bear markets. Current trading prices remain elevated compared to this threshold, suggesting additional downside potential exists.

Previous bear cycles demonstrated distinct patterns when Bitcoin approached these levels. During the 2018 downturn, prices dropped 30% below the realized price before stabilizing.

The FTX collapse in 2022 pushed Bitcoin 24% beneath this metric. After reaching these depths, the cryptocurrency spent between four and six months building a foundation before recovery began.

Recent market volatility has not yet pushed Bitcoin into the extreme zones that characterize true bottoms. On February 5, the asset experienced a 14% decline to $62,000, triggering $5.4 billion in realized losses.

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This marked the largest single-day loss realization since March 2023, when holders crystallized $5.8 billion in losses. The figure also exceeded the $4.3 billion recorded shortly after the FTX exchange collapsed.

Despite these substantial losses, CryptoQuant maintains that a structural bottom has not materialized. Monthly cumulative realized losses currently stand at 0.3 million BTC, well below the 1.1 million BTC observed at the end of the 2022 bear market. This disparity suggests selling pressure has not reached the intensity associated with cycle lows.

Source: Cryptoquant

Multiple Indicators Show Market Remains Above Capitulation Levels

The MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, has not entered extreme undervaluation territory. This metric historically signals bear market bottoms when reaching deeply depressed levels.

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Current readings indicate Bitcoin trades above the ranges that marked previous cycle nadirs. Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric has not declined to the 20% unrealized loss threshold observed at past bottoms.

Long-term holder behavior provides additional evidence that full capitulation has not occurred. These investors currently sell positions near breakeven prices.

During previous bear market conclusions, long-term holders typically absorbed losses between 30% and 40% before markets reversed. This behavioral difference suggests conviction remains higher than at historical turning points.

Approximately 55% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply remains profitable at current prices. This contrasts with the 45% to 50% range typically observed at cycle lows.

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The elevated proportion of profitable holdings indicates many investors entered positions at lower prices and maintain paper gains. Bear market bottoms usually feature a higher percentage of underwater positions across the holder base.

CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the Bear Phase rather than advancing to the Extreme Bear Phase. The latter designation historically marks the beginning of extended bottoming periods.

These extreme phases typically persist for several months, reinforcing the firm’s assessment that bear markets require time to resolve.

Standard Chartered recently adjusted its outlook, projecting Bitcoin could test $50,000 before recovering later this year.

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Crypto World

Sharplink Posts $734M Loss Despite Higher Staking Income

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Sharplink reported a full-year net loss of $734 million after a decline in Ethereum prices reduced the value of its holdings.
  • The company recorded a $616 million decrease in the value of its Ethereum treasury during the year.
  • Sharplink booked a $140 million impairment charge related to tokens representing staked Ethereum.
  • The firm generated a $55 million net gain from conversions between Ethereum and staking tokens.
  • Quarterly staking revenue increased 50% to $15.3 million dollars from $10.3 million dollars.

Sharplink reported a $734 million full-year loss after a sharp decline in the Ethereum price reduced the value of its holdings. The Miami-based company disclosed that falling token prices drove most of the loss, even as staking revenue increased. Management said the firm maintained its strategy while expanding its Ethereum treasury position.

Sharplink Reports Full-Year Loss After Ethereum Price Drop

Sharplink recorded a $734 million net loss for the year, reversing a $10.1 million profit in 2024. The company attributed the loss to a $616 million decline in the value of its Ethereum holdings. It also booked a $140 million impairment charge tied to tokens representing staked Ethereum.

However, the firm posted a $55 million net gain from conversions between Ethereum and related staking tokens. The company confirmed it currently holds 867,000 Ethereum tokens. CoinGecko data showed Ethereum traded near $2,000 on Monday, valuing those holdings around $1.75 billion.

Sharplink’s holdings rank second among corporate Ethereum treasuries. BitMine Immersion Technologies holds about $9 billion in Ethereum under the oversight of Tom Lee. The company ended the year with $30.4 million in cash and stablecoins.

Shares of Sharplink traded at $7.41 on Monday, according to Yahoo Finance. Over the past six months, the stock declined 55%. During the same period, Ethereum fell 53%.

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Ethereum Staking Revenue Climbs as Treasury Strategy Expands

Sharplink increased its staking revenue by 50% quarter over quarter. The company generated $15.3 million from staking, compared with $10.3 million in the previous quarter. It has earned 14,500 Ethereum from staking activities, valued at about $9.4 million.

Sharplink participates in Ethereum’s transaction validation process through staking operations. The company also deploys capital into decentralized finance protocols to pursue higher yields. Management stated that boosting Ethereum per share remains a core objective.

Sharplink currently holds about 4 Ethereum per share. The company has raised approximately $3.2 billion to support its transition toward an Ethereum-focused treasury model. CEO Joseph Chalom described the year as transformative for the firm.

“2025 was a defining year for Sharplink,” Chalom said in a shareholder letter. He stated that short-term market volatility can affect results. He added, “Our strategy is consistent and designed to endure.”

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Joe Lubin, CEO of Consensys and Sharplink’s chairman, addressed institutional adoption trends. He said, “The institutional adoption supercycle accelerated in 2025.” Lubin stated that Sharplink aims to bridge traditional public markets with the Ethereum ecosystem.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin ETF Flows Rise As Gold Demand Cools: What’s Next for BTC?

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Cryptocurrencies, Israel, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Iran, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned net positive over the past 30 days, while gold ETF demand has started to slow down after nine straight months of inflows. The shift comes even as gold prices remain elevated and sentiment around Bitcoin continues to cool.

With these contrasting trends in ETF flows and the historical pattern of Bitcoin-to-gold performance cycles, analysts are now examining data that may signal a gradual shift in investor demand between the two assets. 

Are ETF flows beginning to rotate?

According to the Kobeissi Letter, the largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Wednesday, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years. The move followed a 4.4% decline in gold prices, the sharpest drop since the Jan. 30 sell-off.

Gold ETFs had attracted $18.7 billion in January and another $5.3 billion in February, marking the strongest two-month start to a year on record and extending a nine-month inflow streak. The latest outflow points to investors taking profits after gold’s massive rally in 2025.

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Bitcoin ETF flows moved in the opposite direction over the past month. The 30-day net flow shifted to a $273 million inflow on March 6 from a $1.9 billion outflow on Feb. 6

Cryptocurrencies, Israel, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Iran, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin and gold net ETF inflows over the past 30-days. Source: bold.report

The holdings data measured in native units show the divergence more clearly. Bitcoin ETF balances moved to a net increase of 4,021 BTC on March 6 from −42,275 BTC on Feb. 6. Gold ETF holdings declined from 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces during the same period.

The native units represent the actual underlying asset held by funds rather than the dollar value of those holdings. Tracking BTC or ounces isolates real accumulation or distribution without the distortion created by the price movements.

Head of growth at Horizon, Joe Consorti, summarized the current trend and said,  

“Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring. BTC is set to overtake gold’s % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.”

Related: Bitcoin dip may not be over as retail ramps up buying below $70K: Santiment

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Gold rallies precede Bitcoin recoveries

In a “2026 Look Ahead” report released at the end of December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold’s 65% return in 2025 was the fourth-largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. With respect to past rallies, Kuiper noted that gold is potentially near the late stages of its leadership cycle between the two assets. Kuiper said, 

“Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin takes the lead next.”

However, the rotation may take some time to unfold in the market. 

Cryptocurrencies, Israel, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Iran, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin-to-gold ratio analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, BTC needed roughly 147 days or 21 weeks to establish a sustained trend outperforming gold after Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. The period marked a consolidation phase before the ratio began trending higher.

The BTC-to-gold ratio currently trades near the same consolidation zone seen during the earlier rotation phases in 2022-2023.

Kuiper also added that both assets can benefit from the persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty as investors seek neutral stores of value outside traditional monetary systems.

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The ongoing US-Israel and Iran war has reinforced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, which previously supported gold rallies during periods of geopolitical stress.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to outperform gold over the next two to three years following gold’s recent rally in the past few months. 

Related: When buying Bitcoin, don’t expect profit for at least 3 years: Data