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Dollar Index (DXY) Stabilises After CPI Release

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Dollar Index (DXY) Stabilises After CPI Release

Late January proved exceptionally volatile in the currency markets, as reflected by the ATR indicator. However, following the rebound from the four-year low (B), price swings on the DXY chart have narrowed, suggesting a degree of market stabilisation.

Friday’s CPI release had the potential to trigger sharp moves in the US dollar index, yet no major surprises emerged. According to Forex Factory data, the actual figures were broadly in line with analysts’ forecasts (inflation eased slightly as expected), and market participants headed into the long weekend, with US financial markets closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

On 27 January, when analysing the Dollar Index (DXY) chart, we:

→ updated the descending channel (marked in red);
→ noted that DXY was trading near a long-term support zone from which price had rebounded twice in the second half of 2025;
→ suggested that the downward momentum could be losing strength.

However, the market had other plans. Although the rally towards peak C (the former support level) is a clear sign that bearish pressure is fading, it was preceded by a false downside breakout of the aforementioned support area.

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Swing analysis also points to stabilisation, based on the proportional structure:

→ peak C formed within the 50%–61.8% retracement of the A→B impulse;
→ trough D developed within the 50%–61.8% retracement of the B→C move;
→ peak E emerged within the 50%–61.8% retracement of the C→D impulse.

The previously highlighted support zone is now acting as a range where supply and demand appear balanced.

While the descending channel remains technically valid, the confident trajectory (indicated by the arrow) from the B low suggests that bears may struggle to maintain the prevailing trend of recent months.

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Crypto World

Iran’s Telegram ban backfired, stoking crypto concerns

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Crypto Breaking News

The Iranian government’s bid to shutter Telegram in the country appears to have backfired, as millions of users find workarounds to stay online through privacy-centric tools and VPNs, according to Telegram founder Pavel Durov.

In a post on X, Durov said Tehran’s attempt to clamp down on the messaging app “years ago” has instead fueled a broader wave of circumvention. He noted that tens of millions of Iranians remain connected via VPNs and similar technologies, and he highlighted a cross-border effect as VPN-driven connectivity accelerates in Russia as well.

“The government hoped for mass adoption of its surveillance messaging apps, but got mass adoption of VPNs instead. Now, 50 million members of the digital resistance in Iran are joined by over 50 million more in Russia.”

Decentralized technologies—ranging from blockchain-based messaging to encrypted, distributed networks—are increasingly pitched as a way to counter state-imposed online restrictions and surveillance, offering users a path to private communications even when central authorities exert control.

Key takeaways

  • Iran’s Telegram ban did not end use; tens of millions continue to access the service via VPNs and related tools, per Pavel Durov.
  • The stance has produced a broader migration toward privacy-preserving and decentralized messaging technologies beyond a single app.
  • Even as governments restrict access, parallel connectivity channels such as Starlink and device-to-device mesh networks emerge as potential backstops for communication.
  • Evidence from protests in Nepal and Madagascar shows spikes in downloads of decentralized messaging apps during periods of social unrest, underscoring demand for censorship-resistant tools.
  • For investors and builders, the episode highlights a growing divergence between regulatory attempts to control information flow and a user base willing to adopt privacy-native infrastructure at scale.

Regulatory push, user resilience

Iran’s January 2026 nationwide internet blackout, enacted amid escalating protests and ongoing regional tensions, marked a decisive move to curb online mobilization. While the blackout remains in effect, residents retain some access through alternative means—most notably satellite-backed networks such as Starlink, which the government has not fully blocked—and through local, privacy-forward apps capable of wading through censorship filters.

Among the most discussed workarounds is BitChat, a messaging application built to operate over Bluetooth and mesh networks. BitChat turns each participating device into a relay node, effectively stitching a communications mesh that can bypass traditional networks and satellite backbones. Its decentralized design aims to keep conversations flowing even when centralized infrastructure is restricted.

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The broader ecosystem around decentralized technologies is also expanding to address similar scenarios elsewhere. BitChat’s architecture has drawn attention for its potential to offer an alternative communication channel when internet access is compromised. The project’s technical approach and practical uses were detailed in public repositories and whitepapers, illustrating how mesh networking can complement or substitute conventional connectivity in crisis conditions.

Decentralized messaging in the crucible of unrest

The wave of protests that swept across Nepal in 2025 and 2026 brought a notable surge in interest for censorship-evading communication tools. Cointelegraph reported a sharp uptick in BitChat downloads in Nepal during the social-media crackdown, described as a period when the government’s grip on information intensified. In the same breath, Nepalese protests were described as having a transformative political effect within the month, with the government reportedly toppled by demonstrators in that period.

Similar dynamics were observed in Madagascar, where a related surge in decentralized messaging adoption accompanied political turbulence. These patterns illustrate a practical use case for privacy-preserving and distributed communications during periods of blackout and unrest, rather than a speculative tech experiment.

Proponents argue that the trend signals more than isolated incidents. As governments seek to regulate or disable centralized platforms, users appear to gravitate toward tools that improve resilience, privacy, and autonomy. This shift aligns with a broader discourse in the crypto and decentralized tech communities about building communications layers that remain accessible despite state-level interference.

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What this means for markets, users, and builders

The episode offers a tangible case study in how regulatory pressure can inadvertently accelerate adoption of decentralized and privacy-first technologies. For traders and investors, the takeaway is not a call for quick price moves but a recognition that demand for censorship-resistant communications could expand alongside ongoing geopolitical frictions and regulatory crackdowns in various regions.

For developers and infrastructure builders, the narrative underscores several priorities: enhancing the reliability of offline and mesh-based communications, improving the security and usability of decentralized messaging, and developing interoperable layers that can bridge traditional networks with privacy-focused protocols. The convergence of encrypted messaging with crypto-inspired incentives and governance mechanisms could shape new kinds of platforms that prioritize user sovereignty and resilience over centralized control.

While the exact regulatory responses and technological adoption timelines remain uncertain, the Iranian case—paired with parallel developments in Nepal and Madagascar—highlights a clear, growing demand for alternatives that keep people connected when conventional networks falter.

As the situation evolves, watchers should monitor how governments respond to a populace that increasingly expects and deploys private, censorship-resistant channels. The next developments could redefine how citizens, developers, and policymakers think about online rights, access, and the role of decentralized technology in everyday communication.

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Source references and ongoing reporting from Cointelegraph and related coverage underscore the continuity of this trend as it unfolds across regions facing varying degrees of internet control and regulatory pressure.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Telegram Has Been Downloaded Over 50M Times in Iran, Despite Ban: Durov

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Decentralization, Privacy, Liberty, Telegram, Cypherpunks, Pavel Durov

The Iranian government’s attempt to block the Telegram messaging application in the country has backfired, as users find ways to circumvent national firewalls and online controls, according to Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov.

“Iran banned Telegram years ago,” Durov said on Friday; however, tens of millions of users in the country have managed to access the application via virtual private networks (VPNs) and other similar tools, he added.

VPNs route web traffic through servers distributed around the globe to mask the true Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of users and obscure their locations. This allows individuals with VPN access to bypass national online restrictions. Durov said:

“The government hoped for mass adoption of its surveillance messaging apps, but got mass adoption of VPNs instead. Now, 50 million members of the digital resistance in Iran are joined by over 50 million more in Russia.”

Decentralization, Privacy, Liberty, Telegram, Cypherpunks, Pavel Durov
Source: Pavel Durov

Decentralized technologies like blockchain, crypto and encrypted messaging applications can mitigate or neutralize state-imposed online restrictions and surveillance infrastructure, promoting individual liberty, proponents of decentralized technology say.

Related: Global turmoil pushes uptake of decentralized messengers, social media

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Users turn to decentralized alternatives amid online blackouts

The government of Iran imposed a nationwide internet blackout in January 2026, amid growing protests and civil unrest, which is still in effect due to the ongoing war between Israel, the United States and Iran.

Residents in the country can still access the internet through Starlink, a satellite-based network, or communicate via BitChat, a messaging application that uses Bluetooth radio waves to form a mesh network between devices.

BitChat’s mesh network transforms each device into a relay node that transfers data to other devices running the application within range, bypassing online and satellite-based systems entirely.

Decentralization, Privacy, Liberty, Telegram, Cypherpunks, Pavel Durov
The components of the BitChat messaging application tech stack. Source: GitHub

The government of Nepal imposed a social media ban in September 2025 amid growing protests, causing a spike in BitChat downloads.

Bitchat was downloaded over 48,000 times in Nepal the week of the social media ban, and the government of Nepal was toppled by protestors that same month.

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The application recorded a similar download spike in Madagascar amid protests, which also occurred around the same time as the political revolution in Nepal.

Magazine: Did Telegram’s Pavel Durov commit a crime? Crypto lawyers weigh in