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Failed CLARITY Act could pressure crypto valuations down

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Crypto Breaking News

The US Senate’s schedule is becoming a key variable for the crypto industry as lawmakers prepare to enter summer recess at the end of this week, according to Bernstein, a wealth manager. Bernstein says that the odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) advancing are falling, raising the risk of another short-term downturn in crypto valuations—particularly for Bitcoin.

In a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph, Bernstein also warned that a missed legislative push could spark a “knee-jerk” reaction from market participants. Still, the firm points to a counterbalance: if Congress stalls, regulators may intensify efforts already underway under existing authorities, including the SEC and CFTC’s Project Crypto.

Key takeaways

  • Bernstein says CLARITY momentum is weakening as the Senate approaches its summer recess, increasing the risk of additional downside for the market.
  • The firm expects the crypto market to bottom and regain momentum toward late Q3 or early Q4 ahead of the mid-term period, if timing pressures persist.
  • Prediction market activity on Polymarket puts CLARITY passage before the end of 2026 at 31%, down from 38% week-to-date.
  • Bernstein argues that legislative delays could lead to more proactive SEC and CFTC policy releases tied to token classification and DeFi rules under Project Crypto.

Recess risk and the “knee-jerk” market reaction

Bernstein’s central concern is timing. With the Senate preparing to start summer recess, the window for passing CLARITY appears to narrow. The wealth manager said that if the legislation does not advance, the market could interpret the outcome as a near-term delay in US crypto market structure reform.

In Bernstein’s view, that could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction,” potentially translating into another leg down for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The firm’s outlook is not purely bearish, however: it also anticipates that—tactically—the market could find a bottom and begin building momentum toward late Q3 and early Q4 before the mid-terms.

What Project Crypto could do if CLARITY stalls

Bernstein’s report highlights an important asymmetry. While markets may react negatively to legislative delays, the same outcome could push regulators to move faster within their current legal frameworks.

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Project Crypto is a joint initiative intended to use existing agency authority to develop a workable regulatory approach for digital assets while Congress finalizes broader legislation under CLARITY. The SEC first announced Project Crypto under Chairman Paul Atkins in July 2025, and it was later expanded into a joint staff effort between the SEC and the CFTC in September 2025. (SEC announcement: https://www.sec.gov/about/sec-launches-project-crypto; CFTC/SEC expansion referenced by Cointelegraph: https://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/FederalRegister/finalrules/2026-05635.html.)

According to Bernstein, the SEC and CFTC could respond to Congress’s slowdown with additional interpretive releases and clearer guidance. The firm specifically points to potential developments involving:

  • Token “taxonomy” and interpretive guidance tied to how different types of tokens should be treated.
  • Clearer rules related to decentralized finance (DeFi).
  • Acceleration of an “innovation exemption” concept for issuing tokens that would be exempted from securities status during a finite period.

For investors and builders, the practical takeaway is that regulatory clarity might not arrive only through CLARITY. If Congress can’t deliver in the near term, markets may increasingly price regulatory outputs—such as guidance, interpretive releases, and rulemaking momentum—emanating from the SEC and CFTC.

Polymarket odds slip to 31% for passage by end-2026

Bernstein’s concern about dwindling prospects for CLARITY is echoed by market-implied probabilities. Polymarket data shows the odds of the act being signed into law before the end of 2026 at 31%, down 7% over the past week and down 9% over the past month. The market reports roughly $3.7 million has been wagered on the outcome. (Source: Polymarket.)

The drop matters because prediction markets often reflect shifting expectations around legislative scheduling and political willingness—especially when credible procedural deadlines approach. In this case, the timing implied by summer recess is a direct catalyst for priceable uncertainty.

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Earlier coverage also indicates that expectations have moved in recent months: on June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate was running out of time to pass the market-structure bill before its August recess (as noted in Cointelegraph’s reporting: https://cointelegraph.com/news/galaxy-cuts-2026-clarity-act-odds-50).

Political and industry friction around the bill

Beyond Senate calendar risk, CLARITY is navigating political and institutional scrutiny. Cointelegraph reported that White House officials are reportedly weighing a bipartisan ethics counterproposal received on Thursday after weeks of negotiations between Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego.

Per sources familiar with the matter who spoke to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the proposal would allow state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if it fails to enforce ethics laws against federal officials. (As reported by: https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/president-trump-weighs-bipartisan.) The relevance for crypto stakeholders is indirect, but it underscores how broader political processes can consume attention and time that might otherwise be directed toward stalled legislation.

CLARITY’s substance has also faced resistance. The banking industry has pushed back, arguing that the draft could let crypto firms offer yields on stablecoins without meeting requirements they say apply to traditional financial institutions. Cointelegraph also flagged that the act’s stablecoin yield provisions have drawn concern from banking groups (related link referenced in the source material: https://cointelegraph.com/news/aba-banking-associations-clarity-act-yield).

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As those tensions persist, the bill’s path becomes less predictable—one reason prediction market odds and institutional forecasts can move quickly as legislators approach procedural inflection points like recess.

With the Senate headed into recess, traders and long-term participants should watch two things in parallel: whether CLARITY gains any late-stage momentum before lawmakers leave, and whether the SEC and CFTC accelerate practical guidance under Project Crypto—especially around token classification and DeFi—if Congress fails to deliver the legislative clarity the market is pricing.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Kalshi CEO invokes Nasdaq in $36B New York lawsuit

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Kalshi valuation hits $22bn after $1bn Series F

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended the prediction market operator on Aug. 3 after New York filed a lawsuit seeking at least $36 billion in damages, penalties and related relief. 

Summary

  • New York seeks at least $36 billion while alleging Kalshi operates an unlicensed gambling platform.
  • Kalshi removed the case to federal court, temporarily sidelining New York’s immediate preliminary injunction request.
  • Tarek Mansour compared Kalshi with Nasdaq, saying the exchange matches traders and charges transaction fees.
  • Federal courts previously refused Kalshi’s bid to block New York from enforcing gambling laws locally.
  • The next court fight concerns federal jurisdiction, remand, and whether state gambling rules can coexist.

During a CNBC interview, Mansour compared Kalshi’s structure to Nasdaq and argued that the state’s allegations threaten the wider event contract business.

The legal case also moved away from New York state court. The prediction market platform removed the proceeding to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York shortly after Attorney General Letitia James filed it on July 31. 

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New York Supreme Court Justice Melissa A. Crane then treated the state’s preliminary injunction request as moot because the case was no longer before her court, according to court records shared by gaming law attorney Daniel Wallach. The decision was procedural and did not reject New York’s allegations.

Kalshi lawsuit moves into federal court

New York’s verified petition accuses the firm of repeatedly violating state gambling laws by offering event contracts without a New York State Gaming Commission license. The state wants a permanent injunction, an accounting of customer activity, restitution, disgorgement and civil penalties. It also seeks $100,000 for each alleged unauthorized sports wagering offer. Those requests remain allegations and have not resulted in a final judgment.

The company transferred the case to federal court about eight hours after the state filing, arguing that New York was attempting to regulate a derivatives exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. As crypto.news reported, the state had initially asked for immediate restrictions while the wider case proceeded.

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Justice Crane’s order temporarily removes that state court request from consideration. Wallach said New York could file the motion again if a federal judge sends the case back to state court. A remand decision would determine the forum, not whether Kalshi’s products are lawful.

Mansour says Kalshi resembles Nasdaq

Mansour rejected New York’s description of Kalshi as an unlicensed sportsbook. He said users trade with other participants while the prediction market platform matches positions and earns transaction fees. He added that officials could “copy and paste that lawsuit and file it against Nasdaq,” extending his defense beyond sports markets.

The comparison reflects Kalshi’s central argument that event contracts are financial instruments rather than conventional wagers. The firm is registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market, and its contracts generally allow customers to take opposing positions on whether an event will occur. New York argues that this structure does not change the products’ gambling character under state law.

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Mansour also compared Kalshi’s regulatory battles with earlier disputes involving Uber and Airbnb. He portrayed the state action as resistance from established gaming businesses facing a new competitor. That remains Kalshi’s interpretation. New York has said its case concerns licensing, consumer safeguards, tax obligations and access by users below the state’s minimum sports betting age.

The CEO claimed New Yorkers had collectively earned more than $200 million on Kalshi during 2026. He also said the company proposed a system that could produce almost $10 billion in state tax revenue over five years. Mansour did not publish supporting calculations during the interview, so those figures should be treated as company claims rather than verified totals.

New York says event contracts are illegal gambling

The attorney general’s office alleges that the company allows customers to risk money on future events outside their control, meeting New York’s definition of gambling. The petition cites contracts covering professional sports, college games, elections and entertainment programs. It also alleges that Kalshi charges customers fees for entering those positions.

New York further claims that people aged 18 to 20 can use the platform even though state law sets the minimum age for mobile sports betting at 21. The state says licensed operators must follow local consumer protection requirements and contribute gaming taxes. The prediction market operator disputes the state’s authority to apply those rules to a federally registered exchange.

The petition refers to a reported $22 billion company valuation and annualized transaction volume of $178 billion. Those figures appear as the firm reported numbers in the state filing. They are not findings by the court, and the final monetary exposure cannot be known before an accounting and judgment.

Federal and state regulators remain divided

The new removal follows an earlier setback for the prediction market operator. On July 7, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres refused to block the New York State Gaming Commission from applying state gambling laws to Kalshi’s sports contracts. She found that Kalshi had not shown at the preliminary stage that the Commodity Exchange Act displaced New York’s rules. Kalshi appealed, but its requests for emergency protection were also rejected.

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The CFTC takes the opposite position. In an April federal complaint, the regulator argued that Congress gave it exclusive authority over swaps and other contracts traded on registered derivatives exchanges. New York maintains that states retain their traditional power to police gambling within their borders.

Courts have not applied one consistent approach nationwide. In related coverage, a Washington judge blocked Kalshi sports contracts after finding that state gambling laws could apply. A Minnesota federal judge reached a different early conclusion and temporarily blocked that state’s prediction market ban.

The federal judge assigned to New York’s newly removed case must now consider whether federal jurisdiction exists and whether the proceeding should remain in federal court. A remand would allow New York to renew its injunction request in state court. Keeping the case in federal court would move the immediate dispute into the same court system already handling related questions about CFTC authority and federal preemption.

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A bitcoin wallet dormant since 2013 moved $31 million

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Old coins dormant for seven to 10 years have become active. (CryptoQuant)

Since July 30, attackers have drained thousands of BTC from Coldcard-generated wallets, exploiting a flaw dating back to March 2021. According to researchers at Galaxy, total damage so far is about $130 million in BTC.

Over the weekend, some analysts pointed to increased inflows of BTC onto exchanges as the hack dented confidence in self-custody safety.

The 500 BTC isn’t an isolated case

On-chain data from CryptoQuant tracking the so-called spent output age bands, an indicator which groups all bitcoin moved on a given day by how long each coin had sat dormant before being spent, reveals a clear spike in old-coin movement around the same window.

Old coins dormant for seven to 10 years have become active. (CryptoQuant)

Coins that had been dormant for 10 years or longer saw roughly 935 BTC move on Aug. 3, the largest single-day total since March 20. Separately, coins dormant for five to seven years saw a much larger spike, with roughly 6,388 BTC moving on July 31.

Old coins move for all kinds of reasons, such as estate transfers, exchange consolidations, custodial migrations that have nothing to do with any single hack.

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But the clustering of large, long-dormant movements in the days immediately following the Coldcard incident gives the impression of holders proactively migrating funds for security reasons.

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Coldcard Bitcoin Theft Tops $100M Across 3 Waves

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Coldcard Bitcoin Theft Tops $100M Across 3 Waves

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

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BitMine Stakes 87% of Its Ethereum Holdings in Fresh Conviction Bet

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Tom Lee Says ETH/BTC Breakout Signals Crypto’s Big Comeback

Tom Lee’s BitMine Immersion Technologies staked another 150,120 Ethereum (ETH) tokens, worth roughly $278 million. The move deepens one of the largest corporate bets on Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network.

Blockchain analytics account Lookonchain flagged the transaction hours after it happened on August 4. It lifts BitMine’s total staked ETH to 5,067,309 tokens, worth about $9.38 billion. That figure equals 87.4% of the company’s entire ether stack.

Why Staking This Much Signals Conviction

Staking locks tokens into Ethereum’s validator network instead of leaving them idle in a wallet. Validators earn rewards for helping secure the chain. In exchange, they accept withdrawal queues and full price exposure for as long as the tokens stay locked.

A company that stakes nearly nine-tenths of its holdings is not hedging. It is committing to hold the position for years rather than trade around short-term price swings.

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BitMine runs its staking through the Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN), an institutional platform the company built to generate yield on its own Ethereum treasury. It eventually plans to open MAVAN to outside clients too.

An Ethereum ‘Supercycle’

Chairman Tom Lee, who also co-founded research firm Fundstrat, has repeatedly framed the buildup as a wager on a multiyear “supercycle” for Ethereum.

The timing fits a broader institutional tilt toward ether. Ethereum ETFs recently posted their best month since October 2025, even as Bitcoin funds kept bleeding assets. BitMine’s own stock has rallied on the strategy, as investors reward the treasury bet.

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Staking nearly 90% of a multibillion-dollar position leaves little room to reverse course quickly if sentiment turns. Ethereum needs to keep attracting institutional demand for that bet to pay off. BitMine has staked its balance sheet on exactly that outcome.

The post BitMine Stakes 87% of Its Ethereum Holdings in Fresh Conviction Bet appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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CLARITY Act backers say sheriffs misread DeFi rules

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CLARITY Act hits its final window on May 21

Blockchain Association sent Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer an eight page response on Aug. 3, disputing the National Sheriffs’ Association’s objections to the latest CLARITY Act draft.

Summary

  • Blockchain Association says the CLARITY Act regulates intermediaries while protecting developers who lack asset control.
  • The group says registered crypto brokers, dealers and exchanges would face Bank Secrecy Act duties.
  • Section 10604 protects noncontrolling developers but leaves criminal money laundering and sanctions laws fully intact.
  • The bill authorizes $600 million yearly for digital asset investigations from fiscal 2027 through 2031.
  • Senate leaders ended Monday without scheduling CLARITY, while continuing resolution business occupied the floor instead.

The trade group argued that the July 22 Senate text does not give decentralized finance platforms, software developers, mixers or bridges a “blanket exemption” from anti money laundering and sanctions laws. It said the bill separates financial intermediaries that control assets or transactions from developers who only create neutral software.

The exchange arrived during a narrowing legislative window. The Senate ended Monday without acting on H.R. 3633. It invoked cloture on a continuing resolution vehicle and scheduled further work on that measure for Tuesday, leaving the market structure bill without a publicly announced vote.

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CLARITY Act dispute turns on who controls transactions

The sheriffs’ group told Senate leaders on July 31 that the bill’s developer protections were too broad and could make financial crime investigations harder. Its attachment argued that Congress should regulate “everyone who receives revenue” from the digital asset marketplace and asked lawmakers to remove or narrow Section 10604.

Blockchain Association rejected that approach. It said revenue alone does not determine whether a person is a financial institution under the Bank Secrecy Act. FinCEN’s 2019 guidance says money transmitter status depends on a business model’s facts and circumstances. FATF guidance also focuses on whether a person performs covered financial functions for another party.

According to the association, brokers, dealers and exchanges registered or required to register under the bill would face anti money laundering programs, customer identification, suspicious activity reporting, recordkeeping and sanctions compliance. The sheriffs’ group disputes whether the framework reaches enough participants.

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Developer protections leave criminal laws in place

Section 10604 would protect a noncontrolling developer from being treated as a money transmitting business merely for creating software, offering self custody tools or supplying infrastructure. To qualify, the person must lack the legal right and unilateral ability to control transactions involving users’ assets.

The Blockchain Association said the provision leaves laws covering money laundering, wire fraud, sanctions violations, terrorism financing, conspiracy, theft and aiding and abetting intact. A developer who knowingly handles criminal proceeds, controls customer funds or assists an offense could still face prosecution, according to the letter.

The draft also directs the SEC, working with Treasury, to write rules for people controlling protocols that are decentralized in name but perform intermediary functions. The association said this answers claims that controlled platforms could avoid oversight by calling themselves DeFi.

Law enforcement groups remain divided

The dispute does not represent one law enforcement position. Blockchain Association cited support from the Fraternal Order of Police, the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives, the Major Cities Chiefs Association and the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association. Major County Sheriffs of America is neutral, while 160 former law enforcement, intelligence and national security officials previously urged Senate action.

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In related coverage, crypto.news examined how the law enforcement divide centers on developer protections and investigative authority. Supporters view a control based standard as necessary to avoid treating software writers like banks. Critics argue broad language could make responsible parties harder to identify when illicit funds move through decentralized systems.

The July 22 draft proposes $600 million annually from fiscal 2027 through 2031 for state and local digital asset investigations and prosecutions. It would fund training, blockchain analytics and a Digital Asset Cyber Innovation Center. FinCEN would receive another $30 million annually for five years.

Senate calendar leaves no CLARITY vote scheduled

The latest verified Senate floor update shows the chamber adjourned Monday after invoking cloture on H.R. 6500 by an 89 to 4 vote. Senators were due to resume that continuing resolution vehicle Tuesday. The official update did not list H.R. 3633 or announce a CLARITY Act cloture filing.

As crypto.news previously reported, an ordinary cloture filing by Wednesday, Aug. 5 could preserve a possible Friday procedural vote. This timing follows Senate Rule XXII rather than a leadership commitment. A petition requires at least 16 signatures, while ending debate on legislation normally requires three fifths of senators duly chosen and sworn.

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Even a successful motion to proceed would not pass the bill. Senators would still need to debate the text, consider amendments and approve final passage. Any Senate changes would also require House approval before the measure could reach the president.

The Senate calendar places its state work period from Aug. 10 through Sept. 11. Leaders could still negotiate faster action or extend floor time, but no arrangement had been announced by Monday’s adjournment. The next confirmed signal would be a cloture filing, leadership notice or formal scheduling agreement.

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Major XRP Repricing Could Begin in the Next Few Months: Analyst

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Crypto analyst ChartNerd said on August 3 that XRP’s prolonged weakness could be setting the stage for a major market repricing.

With the token testing long-term support near $1.06 after months of negative sentiment, the market watcher argued that the current decline is part of a wider crypto correction rather than a sign of weakness in Ripple’s fundamentals.

Watching for Larger Moves as XRP Tests Support

ChartNerd wrote that being a macro XRP bull during the current downturn has been difficult, especially as altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) for much of the cycle.

He stressed that nothing is inherently wrong with the asset and described the current period as a normal correction within a larger trend.

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‘The next few months are setting the stage for the next market repricing. Maybe the biggest yet,” he stated.

His focus is on XRP’s technical structure, with the token again testing the $1.06 support area after failing to break above its daily 20 EMA near $1.08. The 50 EMA near $1.12 is another resistance level, as is $1.16 if buyers regain control.

According to ChartNerd, XRP’s current price action is taking place inside a falling wedge pattern while approaching a six-year support zone that in the past came right before a big upward movement. However, the analyst also warned that a move below the $1 support would not be unexpected, considering the prevailing market structure, but painted it as a “golden ticket” entry point.

“The lower it goes, the better the long-term opportunity becomes,” he said. “It’s all about perspective.”

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO had earlier identified the $1.05 area as a “battlefield” for the asset, with a successful defense potentially taking it back toward $1.10 and higher, while a breakdown below that zone could expose XRP to the $1 region ChartNerd spoke about.

Long-Term Thesis Facing Short-Term Pressure

The #6 biggest cryptocurrency was trading around $1.07 at the time of writing, down 1% in 24 hours and nearly 3% over seven days. It has also lost about 24% of its value in the past three months, keeping it more than 70% below its July 2025 all-time high near $3.65.

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And that weakness is present despite developments around the Ripple ecosystem, including an announcement by the blockchain payments firm that it has invested in Zilo and Licuido, two companies focusing on tokenized funds and institutional asset infrastructure.

Institutional interest has also been positive, with spot XRP ETFs recording $27 million in net inflows in July, although that figure was markedly lower than June’s $60 million and May’s $132 million, highlighting XRP’s struggle to hold higher levels after its mid-July rally.

The post Major XRP Repricing Could Begin in the Next Few Months: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Bitmine adds $19.6M in ETH, repurchases 4.5M shares

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Bitmine adds $19.6M in ETH, repurchases 4.5M shares

Bitmine adds $19.6M in ETH, repurchases 4.5M shares

Bitmine said it now holds about 4.8% of Ether’s circulating supply as it pursues its 5% acquisition target.

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Solana Memecoin OnlyMarms is Outraising OnlyFans Subscriptions for a Marmot Study

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OnlyMarms may have spiked and dipped, but it is showing good returns.

A Solana meme coin tied to a 64-year-old marmot study has outraised its own OnlyFans campaign in just days.

Researchers launched the OnlyFans page this spring after a major grant renewal fell through. A Pump.fun token followed soon after, and it now brings in more money for the project.

Where the Money Problem Started

The Marmot Adaptive Dynamics (M.A.D.) Lab at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) tracks yellow-bellied marmots near Crested Butte, Colorado. It has continued since 1962, making it one of the longest wildlife studies in the world.

Daniel Blumstein, an ecology professor at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), runs the project. He told NPR that a National Science Foundation (NSF) grant denial had reduced their teaching assistants.

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Julien Martin, a University of Ottawa professor who co-runs the study, later joined the fundraising push.

“We’ve made about $4,000 on OnlyFans, and people are looking at the content and enjoying it… Turns out, it’s even bigger than this.”
Daniel Blumstein, NPR

That figure has since grown. The lab’s Marmot Project Instagram account put OnlyFans donations at more than $6,000, after OnlyFans took its 20% cut. The Daily Bruin reported the update this week.

The account has been live since June. Signing up required convincing OnlyFans that a human, not a marmot, controlled it.

The lab has tried other fundraising ideas too. A Crested Butte brewery released a Marmot Tears IPA in July. The team is also planning a Fat Marmot Week event in August.

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The Token Pulled Ahead

However, one of the more successful endeavors is a community-launched token called OnlyMarms on Pump.fun, a platform that lets anyone create a Solana-based token in minutes. Martin signed up on Pump.fun himself to claim the token’s creator fees for the lab.

The M.A.D. Lab‘s own project page puts total crypto donations at more than $14,000 so far. That is more than double what OnlyFans has generated for the same cause.

OnlyMarms itself is trading near $0.0005, up more than 70% in 24 hours. It peaked above $0.002 in late July, according to CoinGecko data.

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OnlyMarms may have spiked and dipped, but it is showing good returns.
OnlyMarms may have spiked and dipped, but it is showing good returns. Image Source: CoinGecko

That kind of swing mirrors other viral animal tokens. A raccoon token’s viral rally and the broader animal meme coin trend both produced billion-dollar market caps in 2024.

Whether the Fees Keep Flowing

The size of that gap still raises an open question. Researchers cannot yet say whether Pump.fun fees are a repeatable funding source or a one-time spike. Meme coin volume usually fades once attention moves on.

Analysts have also flagged meme coin profit structures as a concern. Profits often favor infrastructure and early holders over the causes tokens claim to support.

That adds uncertainty to how much of OnlyMarms’ volume reaches the lab long term. Blumstein said the lab is also continuing to pursue traditional grant funding.

For now, the marmot study relies on both channels. OnlyFans built the early audience, and the token turned that attention into faster funding.

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Japan Stocks Shrug Off Yen Shock, But Kioxia Signals More Pain Ahead

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The response from the Nikkei has been muted.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 barely budged Tuesday despite a historic joint US-Japan intervention to prop up the yen. But Kioxia Holdings’ earnings miss suggests the real pain has not landed yet.

Tokyo and Washington intervened to halt months of yen weakness, and Kioxia posted disappointing guidance days later. Markets have absorbed both events calmly so far, but the underlying risks, a possible BOJ rate hike and a currency still primed to strengthen, remain unresolved.

A Muted Reaction So Far

The Nikkei 225 slipped slightly, 0.6% to around 63,300 on Tuesday. That extended Monday’s 1.4% drop.

Both moves look mild next to the selloff traders feared. Tokyo and Washington had just confirmed their first coordinated yen-buying operation in decades.

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The response from the Nikkei has been muted.
The response from the Nikkei has been muted. Image Source: Trading View

Kioxia Holdings actually rose slightly on Tuesday. But others in Japan, like SoftBank Group and Advantest, declined as chip stocks led the pullback.

The move follows Kioxia’s 65% plunge from June highs. That slide had already fueled speculation over shareholder payouts before Friday’s earnings.

The yen has settled near 155 to 157 per dollar. It gained as much as 3.8% over two sessions last week, when Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the joint action.

Why Kioxia Still Faces Pressure

Kioxia’s fiscal first-half operating income guidance missed analyst estimates on July 31. The company announced a three-for-one stock split and a share buyback the same day, but neither measure addressed the earnings shortfall itself.

A stronger yen deepens that problem. Kioxia is an export-heavy memory chipmaker, so it loses value on overseas sales whenever the currency strengthens. That adds currency drag to an outlook it already cut.

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Kioxia has had a boom-to-bust run in the past six months. Image Source: Trading View

The timing makes things worse. Global memory chip prices are still swinging, and the wider AI chip trade has wobbled all through July. Korean rivals SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics posted their own sharp moves during that stretch.

The bigger risk sits with the Bank of Japan. The central bank held rates at 1% last week but left the door open to a hike. Bessent has repeatedly pushed Governor Kazuo Ueda toward tightening further.

The BOJ’s next policy meeting in September is the trigger point traders are watching. A hike would widen room for further yen strength. Officials have also signaled they will intervene again if the currency slides back toward its recent lows.

That combination puts Kioxia in a tough spot. It already missed its own guidance, and the currency it depends on looks primed to keep rising.

Whether Kioxia’s slide deepens may depend less on its own numbers. It may hinge more on what the BOJ decides in six weeks.

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Mastercard completes $1.8B BVNK acquisition in stablecoin push

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Mastercard completes $1.8B BVNK acquisition in stablecoin push

Mastercard completes $1.8B BVNK acquisition in stablecoin push

Mastercard said the tie-up would help banks, fintechs and enterprises expand stablecoin payments, payouts, settlement and treasury services.

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