Bitcoin has climbed above the $64,000 level after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States has agreed to continue talks with Iran following a new request from Tehran.

According to a post by President Trump on Truth Social, Iran asked to resume discussions with the United States, and Washington agreed to continue negotiations. At the same time, Trump stated that the ceasefire was over, indicating that diplomatic engagement would continue despite the end of the truce.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue “talks.” We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!”

The cryptocurrency market reacted positively to the development. Bitcoin (BTC) rose to around $64,100, gaining nearly 2% from an intraday low near $62,000. The move extended the recovery that began after heavy selling earlier this week, when renewed military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran pushed Bitcoin below the $62,000 mark.

crypto.news had previously reported that technical discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials were expected to continue. Trump’s latest statement publicly confirmed that negotiations remain active even as military tensions have yet to fully ease. Alongside Bitcoin, several major cryptocurrencies also traded higher following the announcement.

Bitcoin recovers as diplomatic contacts continue

Market sentiment improved after Trump’s latest comments suggested that both sides remain engaged in negotiations despite recent hostilities. Earlier, the president had also stated that Iran wanted to make a deal “so badly,” adding to expectations that diplomatic channels had not completely broken down.

Even with Bitcoin reclaiming the psychological $64,000 level, traders continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely because recent market swings have been closely tied to headlines surrounding the conflict. This week’s decline below $62,000 came shortly after both countries exchanged strikes and Trump declared that the ceasefire had ended.

The recovery also follows several sessions of elevated volatility across digital assets, with investors reacting quickly to changes in geopolitical risk. Although Bitcoin has regained lost ground, price movements remain sensitive to further developments from Washington and Tehran.

Nuclear agreement expectations remain limited

Despite the renewed talks, prediction markets continue to show limited confidence that the two countries will finalize a nuclear agreement this year. According to Polymarket data, the probability of the United States and Iran reaching a deal by Dec. 31 stands at about 38%.

The nuclear program remains the central issue separating both sides. President Trump has repeatedly maintained that Iran cannot possess a nuclear weapon, while negotiations continue alongside ongoing military and political tensions.

Energy markets remain another source of uncertainty for investors. Iran has maintained that it plans to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries a significant share of global oil shipments. The possibility of higher transportation costs has kept traders focused on potential disruptions to crude supplies.

Earlier this week, oil prices climbed after Iran attacked three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the conflict and adding fresh inflation concerns. Higher energy prices can increase inflationary pressure, a factor that financial markets often watch because persistent inflation may reduce expectations for easier monetary policy, which can weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

For now, Bitcoin’s move above $64,000 suggests investors welcomed signs that diplomatic contacts remain open. Even so, the market continues to balance improving sentiment from renewed negotiations against the unresolved issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and the ongoing risks to global energy supplies.

Robinhood has introduced plans to let eligible U.S. customers authorize AI agents to execute cryptocurrency trades on their behalf, extending automated investing beyond stocks and options.

Robinhood said during a Friday presentation that the upcoming feature will allow eligible U.S.-based crypto users to connect third-party AI agents capable of managing trades within user-defined limits. The company did not announce a launch date for the crypto version but said customers in the United Kingdom will receive access after the U.S. rollout.

A Robinhood executive said users will be able to build trading strategies with predefined guardrails instead of watching their accounts continuously. According to the company, the feature is designed to let customers automate decisions while keeping control over the rules that AI agents must follow.

Robinhood expands AI automation beyond stocks

The crypto rollout follows Robinhood’s beta launch of AI-powered agentic accounts for equities and options traders in late May. During the same presentation, Robinhood said more than 70,000 agentic accounts have already been created through that program, indicating early demand for automated investing tools.

Robinhood also said the service works with AI models from third-party providers, including Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX’s Grok. Beyond investing, the company is extending the same technology to consumer finance by allowing eligible customers to authorize AI agents to complete credit card purchases on their behalf.

During the presentation, a Robinhood executive said automated agents could help retail investors act on information they might otherwise overlook, giving them access to capabilities that have historically been more common among institutional investors.

Outside Robinhood, several crypto executives have made similar predictions about AI-powered financial activity. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire have both said they expect AI agents to become major users of blockchain-based payment systems over the next few years.

Robinhood Chain gains traction alongside AI rollout

The automation announcement comes as Robinhood continues expanding its blockchain infrastructure. The company has centered recent crypto development on tokenized real-world assets and Robinhood Chain, its Ethereum layer-2 network built on Arbitrum.

Johann Kerbrat, Robinhood’s senior vice president and general manager of crypto, said the network processed 17 million transactions from nearly 350,000 wallet addresses during its first week after launching on July 1.

DeFiLlama data also shows Robinhood Chain’s total value locked climbed above $115 million after increasing 23% in 24 hours, while cumulative addresses approached 200,000. The same data places the network behind only Ethereum mainnet in 24-hour Uniswap trading volume after daily activity reached about $500 million on July 8, following more than $250 million in cumulative trading volume during its first week.

Separately, Token Terminal data shows Robinhood Chain attracted more than $70 million worth of bridged Ether within its first week. The analytics platform said continued growth could turn the network into “a meaningful new source of demand for ETH.”

AI-driven blockchain payments are also beginning to appear outside Robinhood. In May, Amazon Web Services integrated Coinbase’s x402 payments protocol into Amazon Bedrock AgentCore, allowing AI agents to settle transactions using USDC. Earlier, in April, crypto wallet startup Oobit introduced a Visa-backed virtual card that enables AI agents to make business purchases using USDT.

Even so, blockchain payment activity from AI agents remains limited. Artemis data shows the AI agent-enabled x402 protocol processed about $2 million in transaction volume during June, suggesting adoption is still in its early stages despite a growing number of product launches.

Robinhood is preparing to expand its “agentic trading” features into the company’s US crypto product, allowing eligible customers to connect third-party AI agents that can execute trades on their behalf. The move follows a similar rollout to equities and options traders, launched in a beta form in late May.

Robinhood’s leadership said customers will be able to design strategies with guardrails through AI agents, reducing the need for constant account monitoring. While the firm did not announce a specific rollout date for US crypto users, it indicated that UK customers will be next to gain access.

Key takeaways

• Robinhood will extend third-party AI agent integrations to eligible US crypto traders, enabling automated crypto trade execution under user-defined guardrails.
• The company previously introduced agentic trading for equities and options via a beta in late May, and more than 70,000 agentic accounts have been created since then.
• Robinhood did not set a US crypto launch date, but said UK customers will be next.
• Robinhood’s broader crypto agenda includes its Ethereum layer 2, Robinhood Chain, which processed 17 million transactions in its first week, according to company executives.
• Despite multiple AI-agent payment integrations across the industry, on-chain AI-agent activity remains modest—Artemis data cited only about $2 million in June volume tied to x402-enabled activity.

Agentic trading moves from equities to crypto

At a presentation on Friday, a Robinhood executive said the goal of the AI agent integration is to let users work with an agent to create strategies with specific guardrails—without requiring constant supervision of their accounts. The executive framed this as a way to help retail traders act on information they might otherwise miss.

Robinhood did not provide a calendar date for when the crypto feature will roll out to eligible US customers. However, the company noted that its UK users would receive access first, signaling that the next phase of expansion will begin outside the US before wider coverage is announced.

Earlier in the process, Robinhood offered agentic accounts to equities traders. In the equities and options market beta, Robinhood reported that over 70,000 agentic accounts were created by traders since late May—an internal adoption milestone that suggests the company expects its agentic framework to translate across asset classes.

Why Robinhood says it matters for retail traders

Robinhood positioned agentic trading as a competitive equalizer for retail investors, pointing to the ability to base trades on data and conditions that could be difficult to track manually. In the company’s view, this would bring retail users closer to the workflow advantage typically enjoyed by institutions.

The product is delivered through agentic accounts connected to third-party AI providers. Robinhood said these integrations include companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and Grok (via SpaceX), alongside additional AI infrastructure support through its platform.

Beyond trade automation, Robinhood also said eligible users can have credit card purchases made on their behalf by AI agents, indicating that the agentic approach is meant to expand beyond crypto order execution into broader transaction workflows.

Robinhood Chain and the company’s wider crypto push

Robinhood’s AI agent trading expansion lands within a broader crypto strategy. The company has focused on tokenization and its Ethereum layer 2 network, Robinhood Chain, which launched earlier this month.

Robinhood’s senior vice president and general manager of crypto, Johann Kerbrat, said Robinhood Chain processed 17 million transactions from nearly 350,000 wallet addresses in its first week. That network activity figure provides context for how Robinhood is building capacity for crypto rails that can support new user experiences, including automation.

For investors and traders, the implication is that Robinhood is treating agentic trading as a product layer that needs underlying infrastructure—both for transaction handling and for integrating payment and settlement flows across user-controlled on-chain actions.

Industry integrations expand—yet adoption remains limited

Robinhood’s update comes amid a broader push across the crypto industry to enable AI agents to spend stablecoins and perform transactions. Several integration announcements in recent months highlighted how AI agent systems are being connected to blockchain payment rails.

One prominent example referenced in earlier reporting is Amazon Web Services’ May integration, in which AWS connected Coinbase’s x402 payments protocol into Amazon Bedrock AgentCore. That setup enables agents to transact in USDC (USDC). In April, wallet startup Oobit also rolled out Visa-supported virtual cards designed for AI agents to spend USDt (USDT) on behalf of businesses.

Despite the growing list of integrations, the article’s cited data suggests real usage is still early. Artemis data indicated that only about $2 million in transaction volume was facilitated through the AI agent-supported x402 protocol in June. This points to a gap between infrastructure readiness and widespread agent-driven on-chain behavior.

For readers, the key question is whether products like Robinhood’s crypto agent trading will meaningfully increase the volume of AI-assisted transactions—or whether agentic features will initially remain concentrated among smaller, tech-forward user segments.

As Robinhood prepares to roll out agentic trading for eligible crypto users—starting with the UK—watch for whether the company sets a timeline for broader US access and whether adoption metrics begin to move beyond the low on-chain volumes seen in earlier x402-focused activity.

The U.S. Department of Justice is reportedly preparing to drop federal charges against Matthew Goettsche, the founder of BitClub Network, in a case that accused him of running a crypto mining “passive income” scheme that allegedly defrauded investors of $722 million between 2014 and 2019.

According to a report from Bloomberg Law, the DOJ’s deputy attorney general’s office ordered the New Jersey attorney general’s office to dismiss the case “with prejudice.” Shortly afterward, a court filing in New Jersey indicated the parties have reached “an agreement in principle” to resolve the pending charges, though additional time is needed to finalize the terms.

Key takeaways

• DOJ is reportedly seeking to dismiss charges against BitClub Network founder Matthew Goettsche after an “agreement in principle” outlined in a New Jersey court filing.
• Bloomberg Law reported the decision follows direction from Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche’s office to end a DOJ approach described as “regulation by prosecution.”
• The original indictment dates to December 2019 and alleged wire fraud and unregistered securities offenses tied to BitClub’s investor “mining pool” pitch.
• Several former BitClub associates—Silviu Balaci, Joseph Abel, and Gordon Beckstead—have already pleaded guilty, making the case outcome a notable shift in enforcement trajectory.
• Investors and legal watchers will be looking for whether any dismissal is fully implemented and whether the broader DOJ pivot affects other ongoing crypto prosecutions.

A case built on a “mining pool” promise

Goettsche was indicted in December 2019 and, at the time, was scheduled to go to trial in October on charges including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and the sale of unregistered securities. Prosecutors alleged that BitClub operated from April 2014 to December 2019 as a Bitcoin mining pool where investors could purchase shares and earn passive returns.

In filings and allegations cited in coverage of the matter, BitClub’s model was said to rely on falsified earnings and fabricated mining data—claims that prosecutors and other court materials have treated as central to convincing investors to join and continue funding the scheme.

Earlier court submissions also reflected Goettsche’s description of the business as one built “on the backs of idiots,” according to court material referenced in previous reporting.

How the DOJ pivot appears to factor in

The reported change arrives against the backdrop of an April 2025 memo issued by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. As described in that memorandum, it directed DOJ to end what was characterized as “regulation by prosecution” in relation to the digital asset industry—an approach that some critics argued had been too broad and blurred the line between criminal enforcement and broader market regulation.

Bloomberg Law reported on Friday that the deputy attorney general’s office in Washington ordered the New Jersey attorney general’s office to dismiss the Goettsche case with prejudice. The same reporting cited two sources familiar with the matter.

In a subsequent filing, Goettsche’s attorneys told U.S. District Judge Claire Cecchi that the parties “reached an agreement in principle” to resolve the charges, but that they need time to finalize the terms—language consistent with a DOJ-led shift that is moving from policy direction toward case-level resolution.

The DOJ did not provide immediate comment when Cointelegraph reached out, according to the account in the source article.

Why this outcome stands out in U.S. crypto enforcement

If the dismissal proceeds, it would represent one of the more prominent reversals in U.S. crypto enforcement history—especially because the Goettsche matter has already produced guilty pleas from several alleged co-conspirators.

Three former BitClub Network figures—Silviu Balaci, Joseph Abel, and Gordon Beckstead—have pleaded guilty in connection with their involvement in the scheme, according to the details summarized in the source reporting. A dismissal of the lead founder’s charges, therefore, would not simply end a single prosecution; it could reshape how observers interpret the effect of DOJ’s policy changes on pending or future digital asset cases.

For market participants, this distinction matters. Many crypto investors follow enforcement not only to understand individual risk, but also to infer whether agencies are recalibrating what conduct they believe is best handled through prosecution versus through other regulatory or administrative channels.

At the same time, it is not yet clear what the final disposition will look like—dismissal “with prejudice” is reported as the direction, but the court filing emphasizes that the parties still need time to finalize terms. Readers should therefore treat the development as a process in motion rather than a final resolution until the court enters an order.

DOJ enforcement remains active elsewhere

The reported BitClub shift does not appear to represent an overall retreat from crypto crime cases. Other DOJ actions in recent months have continued to target fraud and theft.

In April, a California man, Evan Tageman, was sentenced to 70 months in prison for his alleged role in a criminal enterprise that stole about $263 million worth of crypto from victims through social engineering scams and burglary, according to the source article’s summary of earlier coverage.

The DOJ has also continued to freeze large pools of crypto tied to alleged investment scammers who targeted Americans, with the source article citing efforts that resulted in freezing more than $700 million in April. It further references a separate seizure of nearly $580 million in crypto connected to a criminal scam group operating in Southeast Asia earlier in the year.

Taken together, these actions suggest that while DOJ may be adjusting its strategic stance toward parts of the industry—particularly where it believes prosecution has functioned as a substitute for regulation—the department remains willing to pursue serious criminal conduct involving fraud and coercive tactics.

That tension—between a policy shift away from “regulation by prosecution” and continued case-by-case criminal enforcement—could become a key lens for the next wave of courtroom outcomes.

For now, investors and legal observers should watch for whether the New Jersey court formally dismisses the case as reported, what conditions—if any—are included in the final terms, and whether similar DOJ adjustments surface in other pending crypto prosecutions.

Getting licensed under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework is only the beginning for crypto custodians, as regulators turn their attention from authorization to operational resilience.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) on Wednesday launched a Common Supervisory Action (CSA) to examine the operational resilience of crypto asset service providers (CASPs), placing custody services at the center of the review.

“The signal is quite clear: for custodians, a licence is the start line, not the finish,” Sebastien Dessimoz, co-founder and managing partner at digital asset infrastructure firm Taurus, told Cointelegraph.

The review comes shortly after MiCA’s transitional period expired, marking one of the first major supervisory exercises under the EU’s new crypto framework.

From claiming security to proving it

The ESMA told Cointelegraph that the CSA will apply to a sample of authorized CASPs under MiCA. The review will assess the maturity of CASPs’ digital operational resilience frameworks for custody activities, focusing on risks including key and storage management, transaction controls, incident response and dependencies on third-party providers.

According to industry executives, the action marks a significant shift in Europe’s crypto market, where custody providers are increasingly expected to demonstrate, not simply claim, that their operational controls can withstand real-world risks.

“The shift I expect is from asserting security to evidencing it,” Dessimoz said. “This is a healthy development,” he noted, adding that digital assets are moving deeper into regulated financial infrastructure, and that requires the same security, accountability and resilience institutions expect in traditional markets.

Related: StanChart features in ESMA’s first MiCA register update since deadline

Jody Mettler, chief operating officer of BitGo and president of BitGo Trust, told Cointelegraph that institutional clients have already been asking more detailed questions about how custody providers segregate assets, manage access controls, respond to incidents and maintain business continuity during periods of market stress.

“The signal is that regulators are looking more closely at the operational standards behind digital asset services, not just whether firms are licensed,” she added.

Markus Levin, co-founder of blockchain infrastructure company XYO, said obtaining a MiCA authorization and demonstrating operational resilience are “two different tests,” adding that CASPs able to prove robust controls before regulators complete their review could gain an advantage as institutional adoption grows.

MiCA meets DORA and the debate over centralized crypto supervision

Yuriy Brisov, a lawyer at Digital & Analogue Partners, said the review sits under two EU regulatory frameworks at once: the MiCA framework, which establishes custody obligations, and the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), which sets technology risk requirements for financial firms.

“Custody technology is concentrated in a handful of vendors, so one weak supplier can hit many firms at once,” the lawyer said, adding: “Proving resilience across that supply chain, under MiCA and DORA simultaneously, is the real challenge for CASPs.”

Source: Digital Operational Resilience Act

According to Brisov, the review could set a benchmark for how regulators assess MiCA-authorized custodians and influence discussions around a more centralized approach to crypto supervision in the EU.

“The findings will feed into two live debates: the review of MiCA and the proposal to move supervision of all CASPs from national regulators to ESMA,” he said.

Magazine: The biggest blockchain upgrades still to come in 2026

The US Federal Reserve named Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) co-founder Marc Andreessen to help lead a task force studying how artificial intelligence and other new technologies could affect productivity and jobs.

Andreessen will serve on the Fed’s Productivity and Jobs task force alongside Charles I. Jones, a Stanford University economics professor currently on leave at Anthropic, and Asha Sharma, Microsoft’s executive vice president and Xbox CEO.

The new task force will assess how general-purpose technologies such as AI will affect employment and productivity to better inform the central bank’s policymaking, the Fed said in a Thursday press release.

The group is one of five task forces launched under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, each responsible for examining important areas of monetary policy conduct. The other task forces will focus on the Fed’s policy communication, balance sheet policy, data quality and inflation frameworks.

Andreessen co-founded Andreessen Horowitz, which has become one of Silicon Valley’s most influential venture capital firms and a major backer of crypto and AI startups.

Andreessen and Warsh’s ties date back to the early 1990s at Stanford University. During a 2025 interview with CNBC, Warsh said that both Andreessen and Palantir’s Peter Thiel “have been friends from my days in college.” 

Andreessen publicly supported Warsh’s appointment as Fed chairman. “I’ve known Kevin for 30 years; he combines great insight in economics and finance with keen understanding of technology and business,” he wrote in a Jan. 30 X post following US President Donald Trump’s nomination.

Source: Marc Andreessen

Warsh launches Fed task forces

Warsh revealed the leadership-driven overhaul and the creation of the five new task forces during a press conference on June 17.

“These subjects are timely, consequential, and, in my view, worthy of a fresh look,” said Warsh during the press conference, adding that each of these will be independently led by “some of the very best minds—both inside and outside the economics profession.” 

Warsh also said that the central bank will strive to publish policy statements and guidance in shorter, clearer language.

Related: Hyperliquid shows how onchain perps could challenge Wall Street: Pantera

FOMC divided over AI’s economic impact

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is sharply divided over the economic impact of AI and whether it is an inflationary or disinflationary technology. Some view AI as a long-term disinflationary productivity booster, while others argue that the current spending on AI infrastructure is actively increasing inflation.

During a May 27 speech, Governor Lisa Cook said that she expects AI to further “boost productivity growth, contributing to my expectation that GDP will grow robustly,” but added that it presents the risk of “higher inflation.” 

In former Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements from March 2026, he said that data center spending is “putting pressure on all kinds of goods and services” and is “probably pushing inflation up at the margin.” 

Magazine: Strategy sells $216M Bitcoin, Bollinger bullish on BTC: Hodler’s Digest, June 29-July 6, 2026

Zcash price has rallied past $500 after open interest jumped to $1.02 billion and traders accumulated positions ahead of the July 28 Ironwood upgrade.

According to data from crypto.news, Zcash (ZEC) price has risen more than 7% over the past 24 hours to trade above $500, extending its weekly gain to around 10% as traders increased exposure ahead of the network’s Ironwood upgrade.

Alongside the price rally, derivatives participation has accelerated, while technical indicators point to sustained buying momentum. The latest move has also coincided with a recovery across the crypto market, where Bitcoin reclaimed the $64,000 level and improved sentiment for several major digital assets.

Network upgrade has become the key catalyst

Scheduled to activate at block 3,428,143 on July 28, the Ironwood upgrade has become the main catalyst behind renewed interest in Zcash. Zcash core developer Sean Bowe stated that the proposal has received support from major participants across the Zcash ecosystem.

The upgrade follows the discovery of a critical vulnerability in the Orchard shielded pool in May. According to the Zcash development team, the flaw could theoretically have allowed counterfeit ZEC to enter circulation without being detected, although no such exploitation was reported.

As part of Ironwood, developers will permanently retire the Orchard pool and prevent any new transactions from entering it. A redesigned shielded pool will replace it with stronger security measures, including formal verification, external security audits and quantum-resistant note designs intended to strengthen supply integrity and improve confidence in private transactions.

At the same time, improving conditions across the digital asset market have added another layer of support. Bitcoin’s recovery above $64,000 has encouraged renewed buying across altcoins, while Ether has continued moving toward its 50-day moving average near $1,800. XRP has also held support around $1.09, helping sustain positive sentiment ahead of the Zcash network upgrade.

Technical indicators continue to favor buyers

Growing participation in the futures market has reinforced the recent advance. Derivatives data shows trading volume jumped 49% to $1.98 billion, while open interest climbed 27.32% to $1.02 billion, indicating traders have continued opening new leveraged positions before the July activation.

On the technical side, ZEC has reclaimed several important resistance levels after recovering from roughly $368 in late June. The 4-hour chart shows the price moving above both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $459.71 and the 78.6% level at $484.63, leaving the recent swing high as the next obstacle.

Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish structure. The 4-hour MACD remains in positive territory with the MACD line holding above the signal line, while the RSI sits near 65, suggesting buying strength remains intact without entering deeply overbought territory.

The daily chart also shows the Aroon Up indicator at 100% and Aroon Down near 14%, a combination that typically signals a strong prevailing uptrend. Even so, ZEC continues trading just below the Supertrend resistance around $516, making that zone an important hurdle before buyers can attempt another leg higher.

Commenting on the latest setup, crypto analyst Ardi noted that a decisive move above $510 would invalidate the current local swing resistance and could increase the probability of a rally toward $540.

While the analyst outlined that bullish scenario, the rapid increase in open interest also indicates leveraged positioning has become more crowded, leaving ZEC vulnerable to sharper price swings if momentum weakens near resistance. 

Bitcoin closed the worst half-year in its recent history near $60,000, down from $93,000 in January and fresh off a 21-month low, and almost none of the damage came from crypto itself. The Federal Reserve and record ETF outflows did it, and the same two forces meet again at the July 28-29 policy meeting that will likely decide whether the bottom is in or another leg waits below. These are the levels, the scenarios, and the honest case on both sides.

Bitcoin enters July 2026 trading near $60,000, and the number understates how strange the year has been. The largest cryptocurrency began January above $93,000, peaked at $126,000 back in October 2025, and spent the first half of 2026 grinding down to a fresh 21-month low near $58,000 in late June, a decline of more than half from the top.

What makes it unusual is the absence of a villain: Bitcoin’s historic crashes came with something breaking, the Terra collapse in 2022, the FTX failure months later, and this time nothing inside crypto broke.

No major exchange failed, no large stablecoin lost its peg, and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve stayed in place. The damage came almost entirely from two external forces: the Federal Reserve and the money leaving Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and those same two forces are set to decide what happens next.

The pivotal event sits at the end of the month. The Federal Reserve meets on July 28-29, and prediction markets put roughly a 70% probability on the Fed holding rates steady, with the small remaining chance pointing toward a hike, not a cut, meaning a monetary rescue for risk assets this month looks unlikely.

Around that decision sits a market that is deeply oversold, largely deleveraged, and quietly being accumulated by long-term buyers even as ETF holders sell, a genuinely mixed setup that supports the range this piece will map rather than a confident call in either direction.

This prediction breaks down the month the way a trader would: the price levels that matter in both directions, the bearish case built on the Fed and the ETF exodus, the bullish case built on oversold conditions and whale accumulation, three concrete scenarios with the triggers that would produce each, the analyst and prediction-market targets worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a month whose direction one meeting will largely set. None of it is investment advice, and Bitcoin’s volatility means every level here can be overrun by a single headline.