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Prediction Market Open Interest Crosses $1B as Super Bowl Boosts Bets

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Volume across Polymarket and Kalshi hit $400 million for the first time, with sports and political markets drawing nearly all the liquidity.

Open interest (OI) across crypto prediction markets just hit $1 billion for the first time, a surge likely fueled by increased activity around the 2026 Super Bowl.

According to data from Artemis, open interest across platforms, Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, and others, jumped above $1.1 billion for the first time on Feb. 7, setting a new all-time high. OI indicates the value of all currently active positions — in this case, the “yes” or “no” positions across predictions — that have yet to be resolved, making it an indicator of capital inflow and liquidity.

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Open interest across prediction markets. Source: Artemis

As for spot volume, it also reached a new historic record of $1.4 billion across platforms, with Kalshi generating $800 million and Polymarket about $311 million on Super Bowl Sunday, Feb. 8, Artemis data shows.

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Capital allocation on prediction markets. Source: Paradigm

Digging into sectors where users placed the most bets, sports led with $375.3 million, while politics was close behind at $359.7 million, and culture trails at $84.5 million, according to data from crypto venture capital firm Paradigm’s new dashboard, which tracks liquidity across sectors on Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest marketplaces by OI and trading volume.

But the growing interest in placing bets on real-world outcomes doesn’t come without risks. In a recent report, analysts at blockchain security firm CertiK warned that despite the surge, prediction markets are still exposed to security risks like oracle attacks, admin key vulnerabilities and front-running.

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The firm also warned that artificial volume on prediction markets reached 60% on some platforms “during airdrop farming peaks, distorting liquidity metrics, while probability outputs remained reliable for forecasting.”

The spike in prediction market OI coincided with news that Jump Trading, a high-frequency trading firm, is reportedly set to gain small stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for providing liquidity, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 9, citing sources familiar with the matter.

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Crypto World

A16z Crypto Raises $2 Billion Fund Amid Market Downturn

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A16z Crypto Raises $2 Billion Fund Amid Market Downturn

Crypto venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz is doubling down on crypto despite a major market downturn, seeking $2 billion for a new crypto fund.

A16z Crypto, the blockchain arm of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, is raising a fifth fund focused on crypto with plans to close by mid-2026, according to Fortune, citing anonymous sources on Wednesday.

The latest round is significantly smaller than its previous $4.5 billion fund from 2022, but the company has shifted to a shorter fundraising cycle to remain flexible to ever-changing crypto narratives. 

The move comes amid a crypto bear market that has seen more than $2 trillion wiped from total market capitalization since its peak of around $4.4 trillion in early October.

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A16z crypto chief Chris Dixon’s Web3 philosophy envisioned a decentralized internet with applications built on blockchains, according to his 2024 book, “Read Write Own.”

But many of those investments have not panned out, notably decentralized X (Twitter) competitor Farcaster, which returned $180 million to investors after selling off its infrastructure in January. 

Crypto VCs exploring non-crypto tech

Wall Street crypto buffs have narrowed their focus lately toward stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization, and financial products, with many venture capitalists following that shift. Others have started to look towards other areas of technology.

Co-founder of venture firm Multicoin Capital, Kyle Samani, stepped down in February to “explore new areas of technology,” such as AI, longevity, and robotics. 

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Meanwhile, crypto venture firm Paradigm is expanding into artificial intelligence and robotics with its latest fund seeking to raise $1.5 billion, as reported in late February. 

Related: Crypto slides, but tokenized RWAs and VC push ahead

A16z raised over $15 billion in January to invest in companies and technologies it deemed critical to secure America’s future, mentioning AI and crypto and including technologies in “key areas that generate human flourishing,” such as biology, health, defense, public safety, education, and entertainment.

A16z sees opportunity in AI, crypto in 2026

A16z recently highlighted crypto and AI as major themes for 2026, stating that it expected AI to automate cybersecurity work, AI models to become app stores, privacy to become the “most important moat in crypto,” prediction markets to get “bigger, broader, and smarter,” and stablecoins to become more intertwined with traditional banking and finance. 

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According to DeFiLlama’s fundraising aggregator, crypto startups raised $895 million in February, down almost 40% from the $1.47 billion raised the previous month and marginally less than the $1 billion raised in February 2025. 

Crypto venture funding has declined 77% since October. Source: DeFiLlama

Magazine: 6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security