US users remain the most active force behind Polymarket’s political prediction markets, even after the platform moved to geoblock Americans from its global, decentralized service. New analysis from blockchain research firm Allium finds that the United States is the largest single country for political contracts on Polymarket when measured by trading volume and wallet participation—suggesting the demand simply shifted outside formal US oversight.

The findings add another layer to the regulatory and compliance challenges surrounding Polymarket, which has already faced scrutiny from US authorities and was compelled to restrict access under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022.

Key takeaways

• Allium’s report ranks the US as Polymarket’s biggest political market by both contracts traded and wallet count.
• Despite access restrictions, the study argues that US demand did not disappear—it moved offshore.
• US traders appear more drawn to foreign conflict-related markets, with Iran-war themes dominating the top US markets by volume.
• Election-focused markets attract less US participation on the global Polymarket, where such markets are comparatively more prominent on Kalshi and Polymarket US.
• Independent research has previously estimated a large share of Polymarket activity originates from the US, even with geoblocking and VPN countermeasures.

US activity persists after Polymarket’s geoblock

Allium’s analysis, published on Thursday, estimates that US-based users form the largest single political crowd on Polymarket across all countries it tracks. The report emphasizes that this is based on tagged wallets—specifically, the 6% of wallets Allium could associate with a country—so the figures are directional rather than definitive.

Still, Allium frames the result as a clear outcome of Polymarket’s restrictions. Blocking access, the firm argues, did not stop US participation; instead, it concentrated it into a way that makes the US look even larger by volume within the offshore-access model.

“Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,” the report said. “The demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight.”

This is an important distinction for investors and market participants watching the political prediction market space: the restriction regime may be affecting where and how US users participate, but it has not eliminated US influence over global outcome bets.

Foreign conflict markets draw more US bets than elections

Allium’s breakdown suggests that US participants disproportionately favor foreign conflict-related topics. In the report’s assessment, five of the top 12 markets for US users by notional volume relate to the Iran war.

At the same time, US interest in election-related markets appears comparatively weaker on Polymarket’s global platform. Allium notes that election markets are a category that is allowed on Kalshi and Polymarket US—meaning the global audience’s incentives and the market landscape may differ from what US users most actively trade.

“US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades,” said Allium.

For readers tracking adoption and behavior in prediction markets, the takeaway is not just who is trading, but what they are trading. If US demand continues to show up most strongly in geopolitical risk and away from election positioning, that may shape how liquidity, volatility, and information demand evolve across the different platforms.

Polymarket US vs. the global platform: restrictions and regulatory pressure

Allium’s report also clarifies an often-confused distinction: Polymarket US is a US-regulated platform launched in December and offers a narrower selection of markets. The research discussed here concerns the global Polymarket environment, where access was curtailed for US users.

Polymarket was forced to cut off US users from its global platform as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC in 2022. That enforcement backdrop has continued to cast a spotlight on how prediction market operators handle jurisdictional boundaries and user verification.

Cointelegraph previously reported that US policy makers and regulators have raised concerns about Polymarket, including issues connected to its marketing and compliance approach. Those broader concerns remain relevant in light of Allium’s findings that US involvement has not gone away—only changed form.

Evidence from other researchers: US share remains large

Allium’s results align with an earlier study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane. In a June publication, Crane estimated that 30% of Polymarket trading volume comes from the US, despite Polymarket blocking US-based IP addresses and VPNs that can be used to bypass geofencing.

Crane’s analysis estimated that US-based traders sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026. The researcher tied activity to likely US participants by comparing trade timing and the specific markets where trades occurred.

There have also been reports that Polymarket has moved to clamp down on VPN usage by blocking certain IP addresses associated with VPN services, reinforcing the idea that the company is actively attempting to reduce circumvention. However, the existence of US-heavy participation in outcome bets—whether directly or via offshore access—suggests countermeasures may not be fully effective.

Where Polymarket is blocked and where it is “close only”

Geographic restrictions are not limited to the United States. Polymarket is completely blocked in more than 34 countries, with Spain cited as the latest example where authorities took action as a “precautionary measure” while investigating whether the companies are operating without necessary licensing.

In an additional tier, four countries—including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Poland—operate under “close only” rules. In those jurisdictions, users can close existing positions but cannot open new trades.

Polymarket also maintains restricted regions within countries, according to published information: Ontario in Canada, and Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in Ukraine, where Polymarket is blocked locally but remains accessible elsewhere in the same nation.

These layers of access—complete blocks, close-only allowances, and region-level restrictions—highlight how uneven enforcement and licensing frameworks can be across jurisdictions. For traders, it means the practical reach of a prediction market can remain broader than what top-line policy statements might suggest.

Going forward, the key question is how Polymarket will adapt its geoblocking and compliance tooling as scrutiny grows. Readers should watch whether enforcement tightens enough to materially change participation patterns—or whether US influence continues to reappear offshore in ways that keep global political markets effectively driven by the same demand.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig criticized Illinois lawmakers over a new 0.2% tax on crypto transactions, saying the state had moved against financial technology at the wrong time. 

In a July 1 statement, Selig said Illinois lawmakers “slammed the brakes on technological progress” when they approved the measure.

The tax forms part of Illinois’ fiscal 2027 budget and is set to take effect on Jan. 1, 2027. It applies to certain digital asset activity carried out by brokers, including exchange, transfer, custody, and wallet services. The rule has drawn criticism from crypto firms, policy groups, and some market figures.

Selig says state risks falling behind

Selig said blockchains could change how value moves across markets, much as the internet changed how information moves. He argued that tokenized assets may cover commodities, currencies, stocks, and bonds. His statement said Illinois could place residents and businesses at a disadvantage if the state taxes crypto transfers differently from other financial activity.

The CFTC chair also said Illinois lawmakers “decided they know better” than federal lawmakers working on crypto market rules. His comments came as Washington continues to review market structure bills, tax proposals, and agency roles. The remarks show a growing split between state-level tax policy and federal efforts to set national digital asset rules.

Brokers face new duties

Illinois’ Digital Asset Tax Act requires brokers to register with the Illinois Department of Revenue before covered activity begins. Brokers must collect the tax as a separate line item and file monthly reports on covered digital asset activity.

The law can also reach firms outside Illinois if they serve users in the state. Tax advisers have said customer records, mailing addresses, IP addresses, and other data may help decide whether activity falls under Illinois rules. That has raised questions about how exchanges, wallet firms, and custody providers will track and apply the tax in practice.

Industry criticism grows

Previously, crypto.news reported that Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor called the Illinois tax a “Big Mistake” after Governor JB Pritzker signed the budget. Industry groups also warned that the law could raise costs for users and push crypto firms away from the state.

Some critics have focused on the design of the tax. They argue that it applies to activity itself, not only to profits or capital gains. Others have raised concerns about routine wallet transfers, broker reporting systems, and whether the rule treats digital assets differently from stocks, bonds, or derivatives.

Federal talks add pressure

The Illinois dispute comes while Congress reviews broader crypto tax rules. As previously reported, lawmakers have split the Digital Asset PARITY Act into seven tax discussion drafts covering stablecoin payments, mining, staking, lending, wash-sale rules, charitable donations, and disclosure duties.

Moreover, Federal agencies are also reviewing crypto market rules. The SEC and CFTC opened a joint rules review covering derivatives, margining, and market structure questions. Against that backdrop, Selig’s criticism frames the Illinois tax as a state-level move that may clash with wider federal attempts to build clearer rules for digital assets.

Binance has moved a step closer to returning to the Philippine market after the country’s Securities and Exchange Commission granted final approval for its local partner BlockShoals Technologies to begin regulatory sandbox testing.

In a post on X, Binance co-founder and Chief Customer Service Officer Yi He said the exchange had officially entered the Philippine market, while an accompanying SEC document showed that BlockShoals Technologies Inc. had received final approval to launch financial product and service testing under the Commission’s Strategic Regulatory Sandbox (Stratbox) framework.

Bitcoin price has rebounded above $60,000 after easing oil prices and softer U.S. macro expectations lifted risk appetite, though persistent ETF outflows continue to threaten the recovery.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price climbed from a low near $58,300 to around $60,600 over the past 24 hours as investors responded to softer inflation expectations and improving sentiment across global markets.

Risk assets also benefited from progress in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, while Brent crude slipped below $71 a barrel after oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated and concerns over supply disruptions eased. Lower energy prices reduced inflation worries, giving cryptocurrencies room to recover after June’s sharp sell-off.

The rebound comes after one of Bitcoin’s weakest months in recent years. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $294.6 million in net outflows on July 1 after losing $222.6 million, $231.1 million and $444.5 million during the previous three sessions, extending a streak of institutional withdrawals that has removed billions of dollars from the sector in recent weeks. Those redemptions have continued to offset improving macro sentiment by forcing ETF issuers to sell underlying Bitcoin into the market.

Federal Reserve policy also remains a key obstacle. Although traders welcomed recent dovish remarks, interest rates remain elevated, and expectations for policy easing have been pushed further into the future. Higher Treasury yields continue to compete with non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, while institutional capital has increasingly flowed toward U.S. technology and artificial intelligence stocks instead of digital assets.

Bitcoin must reclaim $62.7K and $65K to strengthen the recovery

Bitcoin’s 1-day chart shows price rebounding from the 100% Fibonacci retracement near $57,826 after briefly testing the lower boundary of a multi-month decline. The recovery has lifted RSI from deeply oversold territory to around 40, suggesting selling pressure has eased without yet confirming a trend reversal.

Even after reclaiming $60,000, Bitcoin continues to trade below all key moving averages clustered between roughly $62,400 and $75,100, leaving major resistance overhead.

The 4-hour chart paints a more constructive short-term picture. Bitcoin has reclaimed the Supertrend support near $57,700 while the Aroon Up reading has climbed above 78%, with Aroon Down slipping below 43%, suggesting buyers have regained short-term control after the late-June washout.

Bitcoin price has also returned above psychological support at $60,000, though sustained buying will still be needed to challenge resistance around $61,000 before the larger moving-average cluster comes into view.

Derivatives positioning shows traders remain heavily focused on nearby liquidation levels. CoinGlass’ 24-hour heatmap highlights dense short liquidation clusters between $61,000 and $61,800, suggesting a move through that range could accelerate buying as bearish positions are forced to close. On the downside, equally large long liquidation pockets sit around $59,500 and $58,000, creating potential downside magnets if Bitcoin loses its recent gains.

According to analyst Ted Pillows, the latest advance should still be treated cautiously.

“This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash. Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low.”

Commenting on the shorter-term setup, analyst Altcoin Sherpa noted that Bitcoin looks constructive on lower time frames while price remains above current support, although he added that he would not feel confident until Bitcoin decisively breaks above $65,000 on higher-time-frame charts.

ETF selling and macro risks could quickly reverse the recovery

Several downside risks continue to threaten Bitcoin’s rebound. Continued spot ETF redemptions remain the most immediate concern, particularly if institutional demand fails to return after June’s record wave of outflows. Corporate developments have also weighed on sentiment after Strategy revised its capital policy to permit token sales, raising concerns that one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders could eventually add supply to the market.

Macro and geopolitical uncertainty also remain unresolved. While oil prices have retreated on improving U.S.-Iran negotiations, any disruption to talks or renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly push energy prices higher and revive inflation concerns.

On the technical side, failure to defend the $60,000 area would expose the $59,500 and $58,000 liquidation zones, while a break below June’s low near $57,800 would invalidate the current relief rally and reopen the path toward fresh cycle lows.

The International Monetary Fund has said tokenization could change how financial markets settle trades, manage payments, and record ownership.

In a July 2 blog post, Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s financial counselor and director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said policy choices made now will decide whether tokenized finance “strengthens or fragments” the financial system.

Adrian said tokenization is more than a tool for faster payments. It moves assets and liabilities onto shared digital ledgers, where execution, clearing, and settlement can happen at the same time. That could reduce delays in markets that still depend on separate systems, manual checks, and later reconciliation after trades close.

Faster markets bring new risks

The IMF said tokenization can make settlement faster and payments cheaper, but it can also change where risk sits. In traditional markets, delays give banks, brokers, and supervisors time to respond to errors or stress. In tokenized markets, smart contracts can move payments, collateral, and ownership within moments.

US-based users are the biggest political bettors on Polymarket, despite the crypto-based prediction market’s efforts to restrict US citizens from using the decentralized platform, according to new research. 

Blockchain research firm Allium estimated in a report published on Thursday that US-based users are the single biggest political market of any country by contracts traded and wallet count on Polymarket — not to be confused with Polymarket US, which is a US-regulated platform that launched in December with a narrower set of markets.

“Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,” the report said. “The demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight.”

The data suggests that Polymarket’s efforts to restrict US users from its global platform have not entirely worked, adding to an expanding list of headaches for the company in the fast-growing predictions market sector, which is under legal and political scrutiny.

Polymarket was forced to cut off US users’ access to its global platform as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022.

Allium based its figures on the 6% of wallets it tagged with a country, meaning the data should be seen as directional only. Source: Allium

Allium found that US users are more interested in foreign conflict-related markets than the rest of the platform’s users, with five of the US cohort’s top 12 markets by notional volume relating to the Iran war.

It also shows a lesser interest in election-related markets, which is a category of prediction markets allowed on Kalshi and Polymarket US. 

“US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades,” said Allium. 

Cointelegraph contacted Polymarket for comment. 

Polymarket’s effort to geoblock US users

Allium’s figures align with another study published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, who estimated that 30% of trading volume on Polymarket comes from the US. 

Crane estimated that people based in the US sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026, despite Polymarket blocking US-based IP addresses and VPNs, which could be used to skirt the block.

The researcher looked at the times of day the trades were made and the markets in which the trades were made to link certain trades to US users. 

An excerpt of Polymarket’s FAQ page on its geographic restrictions. Source: Polymarket

Polymarket has reportedly been clamping down on users who use VPNs by blocking certain IP addresses tied to VPN services, The Information reported in May.

Related: Polymarket hit by $2.9M theft, users to be refunded 

Where is Polymarket blocked?

Polymarket is completely blocked in more than 34 countries, the latest being Spain, which blocked local users from Polymarket and Kalshi as a “precautionary measure” as authorities open an investigation into whether the companies are operating without necessary licensing. 

Another four countries, including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland, are in “close only,” meaning users in these countries can close existing positions but cannot open new trades. 

There are also four restricted regions, Ontario in Canada, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine, where Polymarket is blocked but is available elsewhere in the country. 

Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves

The AI model its own maker says can find and exploit software flaws better than almost any human is back online. It arrives in the middle of crypto’s worst year for hacks. Here is what actually changes, and what the panic gets wrong.

The model built to find software flaws is back, and it landed in the worst possible year for the industry with the most to lose. On July 1, 2026, Anthropic restored access to Claude Fable 5 worldwide after the U.S. Department of Commerce lifted the export controls that had forced the model offline in June, while its more powerful sibling, Mythos 5, returned only to a set of vetted organizations. The timing is what makes it a crypto story. Anthropic describes Mythos-class models as able to find and exploit vulnerabilities better than nearly any human, and crypto is in the middle of a record run of hacks, with billions in assets sitting inside publicly visible code that an AI can read at machine speed.