European currencies continue to trade within established ranges following the heightened volatility of recent weeks. Last week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD declined before staging a recovery; however, the pairs are once again testing important support levels without developing a sustained directional impulse. Market participants remain cautious amid the absence of fresh geopolitical catalysts and ahead of key macroeconomic data releases from the United States.

Investor attention is primarily focused on the publication of US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, GDP figures, and durable goods orders. These indicators could significantly influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy and determine the next direction for the dollar. Additional market influence is also coming from comments by Bank of England officials and European data on business activity and consumer confidence.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues to display sideways dynamics within the 1.1600–1.1660 range. Technical analysis of EUR/USD points to the possibility of a retest of last week’s low near 1.1570 should 1.1600 shift into resistance territory. A resumption of upward movement would only become likely after a confident break and consolidation above 1.1660.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Italian consumer confidence index;
• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): Spanish business confidence index;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

GBP/USD

Following an upward correction, GBP/USD has once again come under pressure. However, the recent low near 1.3300 remains intact, preserving the likelihood of continued range-bound trading. Technical analysis of GBP/USD indicates the possibility of a test of the nearest support zone at 1.3370–1.3390. A break below this area could lead to a decline towards 1.3300, while a confident rebound from it may return the pair to the 1.3460–1.3500 range.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• today at 11:05 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of England Financial Policy Committee member Sarah Breeden;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP data;
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US new home sales.

Overall, EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to trade in conditions of range-bound price action and subdued market activity. The further direction of European currencies will depend on the release of key US economic data, comments from central bank officials, and the broader dynamics of geopolitical risks across global markets.

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The ICT Turtle Soup is a price action strategy built around false breakouts. It targets failed moves at major support and resistance levels across forex and other markets. Turtle Soup trading focuses on liquidity sweeps that trap breakout traders before price reverses. It uses the reversal that often follows a stop run for entry timing.

This article covers the Turtle Soup forex setup along with its core components. Let’s discuss the conditions traders watch for and the entry framework that goes with them.

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What Is the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern?

The ICT Turtle Soup is a reversal approach based on failed breakouts at key support and resistance levels. This forex reversal strategy comes from the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology and frames failed moves as setups.

Traders aim to identify and take advantage of situations where the price briefly moves beyond a major support or resistance level, only to reverse direction shortly after. This movement is often seen in ranging markets where prices oscillate between established highs and lows.

The concept behind ICT Turtle Soup trading is rooted in the idea of stop hunts and market imbalances. When the price breaks out, it often triggers stop-loss orders set by other traders, creating a temporary imbalance. A failed breakout occurs when price returns inside the prior range after sweeping a swing level.

The ICT Turtle Soup strategy seeks to capitalise on this by entering trades in the opposite direction once the breakout fails and the price returns to its previous range​.

The ICT version adapts the original Turtle Soup setup from Linda Raschke and Larry Connors. In the ICT strategy, forex traders apply it on intraday charts using liquidity and order flow, not fixed 20-day breakout rules.

Typically, traders look for signs of a false breakout. This often shows as price briefly moving above a recent high or below a recent low. Price then fails to sustain the move.

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ICT Turtle Soup vs Breakout Strategies

The Turtle Soup strategy and standard breakout trading sit on opposite sides of the same setup. Breakout traders typically enter when price clears a high or low, expecting momentum to continue. ICT Turtle Soup traders wait for that move to fail, then look to position in the opposite direction.

The choice between Turtle Soup vs a breakout strategy depends on the prevailing market context. Breakouts typically work in trending conditions where buying or selling momentum drives continuation. Turtle soup setups work around range edges where liquidity sits and breakouts often fail.

Core Elements of the ICT Turtle Soup Setup

The ICT Turtle Soup setup uses several elements working together to identify failed breakouts. Each element provides context for where price might sweep liquidity before reversing back inside the prior range.

The core elements traders typically work with include:

• Order flow and market structure across higher and lower timeframes
• Liquidity and stop hunts at swing highs and swing lows
• Internal and external liquidity zones inside the range
• Order blocks and imbalances as supportive context

Each element below shows how price typically reacts during a Turtle Soup trading setup.

Order Flow and Market Structure

Order flow and market structure are critical in analysing the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. This involves observing price movements and traders’ behaviour in different timeframes.

Order flow refers to the sequence of buying and selling activity that drives price. Market structure organises that activity into recognisable patterns of highs and lows. Together, they describe the directional bias of a market.

Traders also track a Market Structure Shift (MSS), which signals a potential change in trend direction. An MSS appears when price breaks an opposing swing point with displacement. Displacement here means a strong, single-direction candle that closes well beyond the broken level.

If you want to analyse higher and lower timeframe price movements, consider using FXOpen’s TickTrader platform.

Higher Timeframe Structure

This refers to the broader trend governing the lower timeframe trend. For traders using the 15m-1h charts to trade, this might mean structure visible on 4h or 1d charts.

Higher timeframe structures may help traders identify the major support and resistance levels. These levels are important as they mark the boundaries within which the market generally oscillates. Traders use these to determine the prevailing market direction and potential areas where false breakouts (stop hunts) are likely to occur​.

This higher timeframe view sets the directional bias for the Turtle Soup setup. A market making higher highs and higher lows suggests a bullish bias, where traders typically look for long-side setups after liquidity sweeps below swing lows. The reverse applies in a bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows.

Lower Timeframe Structure

Lower timeframe structures are examined on hourly or minute charts. These provide a more detailed view of price action within the higher timeframe’s range. They also account for the bullish and bearish legs that dictate a broader higher timeframe trend.

On these charts, traders watch for a Break of Structure (BOS) that aligns with the higher timeframe bias. A BOS occurs when price breaks a recent swing high or low in the trend’s direction. Displacement supports the move when a strong candle closes well beyond that swing point with limited pullback.

Together, these signals confirm the lower timeframe is aligning with the Turtle Soup setup bias.

Liquidity and Stop Hunts

In general trading terms, liquidity represents how easy it is to enter or exit a market. However, in the context of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, areas of liquidity can be identified beyond key swing points.

These pools of stop-loss orders sit just above swing highs and just below swing lows. These orders are ready to be triggered if price reaches the level.

Stop hunts in trading, also known as a liquidity sweep or stop run, are central to Turtle Soup setups. They occur when price moves through a resistance or support level, triggering clustered stop-loss orders that sit beyond. Triggered stops create a liquidity spike that allows price to reverse back into the range. Traders applying the ICT Turtle Soup strategy typically position against the initial breakout direction once that liquidity has been swept.

Internal and External Liquidity

Internal and external liquidity sit on opposite sides of the higher timeframe range. Identifying both is central to Turtle Soup forex setups, since each plays a different role.

Internal liquidity refers to the liquidity available within the range of the higher timeframe structure. It involves identifying smaller support and resistance levels within the larger range. In a bullish leg, internal liquidity rests beneath each higher low. In a bearish leg, it sits above each lower high. This internal liquidity is often swept to start a counter-move within the broader trend.

External liquidity involves liquidity that exists outside the major highs and lows of the higher timeframe trend. The swing low where a bullish leg started is one external liquidity zone. The swing high where a bearish retracement began is another external liquidity zone.

Quick reference:

• Internal liquidity: inside the higher timeframe range, beneath higher lows (bullish) or above lower highs (bearish).
• External liquidity: outside the higher timeframe range, at the extremes that defined the leg.

Context Tools: Order Blocks and Imbalances

While not directly involved in the ICT Turtle Soup setup, order blocks and imbalances act as supportive context rather than required components. Understanding them can provide insight into where the price might head and the general market context.

Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling activity has previously occurred, often due to institutional orders. These blocks represent zones of support and resistance where the price is likely to react.

• Bullish order blocks form at the base of upward moves and often act as support on a revisit.
• Bearish order blocks form at the top of downward moves and often act as resistance.

Imbalances, or more precisely fair value gaps (FVGs), are price regions where the market has moved too quickly. When price rapidly moves in one direction, it leaves behind an area with little trading activity. The market often returns to fill these gaps before continuing.

ICT Turtle Soup Setup Conditions

The ICT Turtle Soup setup forms when several conditions appear together on the chart. Each condition narrows the context until a failed breakout becomes the likely outcome.

The conditions for this liquidity grab trading strategy traders typically look for include:

• A defined higher timeframe bias
• Marked internal liquidity inside that bias
• A liquidity sweep that fails to hold
• Lower timeframe confirmation aligned with the higher timeframe direction

Establishing a Bias

Traders begin by analysing the higher timeframe trend, such as the 4h daily charts, to establish a market bias. This analysis may help determine whether the market is predominantly bullish or bearish.

Measurable criteria for the bias typically include:

• A break of structure in one direction on the higher timeframe
• A series of higher highs and higher lows for a bullish bias
• A series of lower highs and lower lows for a bearish bias
• Price respecting key swing points without violating them in the opposite direction

Once the bias is set, traders only look for setups that align with that direction.

Identifying Internal Liquidity

Once the higher timeframe trend is established, traders mark levels of internal liquidity inside the broader leg.

Internal liquidity typically rests in these locations:

• Below recent swing lows in a bullish leg
• Above recent swing highs in a bearish leg
• Beneath equal lows or above equal highs, where stop clusters build
• At round-number levels that attract retail stop placement

These zones are likely to attract stop-loss orders, making them probable targets for a liquidity sweep before the higher timeframe trend resumes.

Liquidity Sweep Trading Condition

The condition is met when price briefly breaks through a marked internal liquidity level, then reverses back inside the range. This typically happens when stop-loss orders are triggered before price quickly returns.

Confirmation comes from wick and close behaviour. Price should sweep the level with a wick that extends beyond it, then close back inside the prior range on the same candle. A small wick relative to the candle body suggests the sweep absorbed liquidity efficiently.

The setup fails when price closes beyond the swept level instead of reversing. A close outside the range, especially with continuation in the next candle, signals a genuine breakout rather than a Turtle Soup condition.

Lower Timeframe Confirmation

After identifying a liquidity grab beyond this internal liquidity level, traders look for an entry on a lower timeframe. They watch for a Market Structure Shift (MSS) in the direction of the higher timeframe bias. Displacement supports the shift when a strong candle closes well beyond the lower timeframe swing point.

Price often retraces back into the range to fill an imbalance before continuing. This retracement frequently meets an order block left behind by the displacement candle. The combination of MSS, displacement, and an order block retest typically gives a precise entry zone aligned with the higher timeframe direction.

Entry, Stop Loss, and Targets

Once the conditions described above appear together, traders typically position in the direction of the higher timeframe bias. The setup gives a clear framework for entry, stop loss, and target placement.

• Entry zone: A limit order at the order block left behind by the displacement candle, in line with the higher timeframe direction.
• Stop loss: Placed just beyond the liquidity sweep wick. Above the recent high for a short trade, below the recent low for a long trade.
• Targets: Set at major liquidity levels such as previous highs or lows, where significant orders are likely to sit.

Position sizing and stop placement should align with the trader’s broader risk management approach. The framework above outlines structure, but potential risk per trade still depends on account-specific factors.

Potential Advantages and Limitations

The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a trading strategy with several potential benefits and drawbacks.

Advantages

• Defined entry framework: The setup gives a specific entry zone, stop placement, and target structure, which removes ambiguity about where to act.
• Multi-timeframe applicability: The pattern can be applied across different timeframes and market conditions, including ranging and trending markets.
• Structured risk parameters: Stop losses sit just beyond the liquidity sweep, which produces a defined risk distance for each setup.

Limitations

• Steep learning curve: Applying the setup requires familiarity with market structure, liquidity, and order flow, which takes time to build.
• Sensitive to market conditions: Highly volatile or thin markets can produce false signals where sweeps continue rather than reverse.
• Time-intensive: The setup demands monitoring multiple timeframes to identify valid conditions, which limits how many markets a trader can cover at once.

The Bottom Line

The ICT Turtle Soup is a pattern built around failed breakouts and liquidity sweeps at key support and resistance levels. It frames a reversal setup with defined conditions for bias, liquidity sweep behaviour, lower timeframe confirmation, and entry placement.

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Like any approach, its outcomes depend on context. The setup tends to work where range edges hold and breakouts fail. It tends to underperform where momentum carries through swept levels. Disciplined execution, careful risk management, and alignment with the broader market context remain the deciding factors.

Traders who want to apply the framework on live markets may open a forex trading account with FXOpen and trade with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50.

FAQs

What Is ICT Turtle Soup in Trading?

ICT Turtle Soup is a method that exploits false breakouts in trading. It identifies potential reversals when the price briefly moves beyond a major support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing direction. This strategy aims to take advantage of these liquidity grabs by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction​.

What Are the Conditions for ICT Turtle Soup?

To identify the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, traders analyse higher timeframe trends to establish market bias. They then look for counter-trend moves and mark internal liquidity areas. The pattern is identified when the price taps these liquidity zones and reverses quickly, often leaving a small wick. This signals a liquidity grab and potential trade setup in the direction of the higher timeframe trend​.

How May Traders Use the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern?

According to theory, using the ICT Turtle Soup pattern involves several steps. First, traders establish a market bias based on higher timeframe analysis. Then, they look for liquidity grabs at marked internal liquidity areas, indicating false breakouts. The next step is to confirm the setup on a lower timeframe by observing a similar liquidity grab and structure break. Lastly, they are supposed to enter trades in the direction of the higher timeframe trend, placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab and targeting key liquidity levels for profit-taking​.

What Is a Turtle Soup Setup in Forex Markets?

A turtle soup setup in forex markets is a failed breakout pattern at a key swing level. Price briefly breaks a recent high or low and sweeps clustered stop-loss orders. It then reverses back inside the prior range. Traders typically position against the initial breakout once the sweep is confirmed.

What Confirms a Liquidity Sweep in ICT Trading?

A liquidity sweep is confirmed by specific wick and close behaviour. Price should extend beyond a marked swing point, then close back inside the prior range. The wick reaches past the level while the candle body stays inside. A close beyond the level without reversal suggests a genuine breakout instead.

Is Turtle Soup a Reversal or Continuation Pattern?

Turtle soup is classified as a reversal pattern, not a continuation pattern. It targets failed breakouts where price moves through a level and then returns inside the prior range. The setup positions against the initial breakout direction rather than with it. Continuation patterns take the direction of the breakout instead.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The White House’s regulatory review office is examining a proposed Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rule on prediction markets, according to a federal filing that could shape how platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket operate across the U.S.

A RegInfo.gov entry shows that the proposal was received by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on May 26 under Executive Order 12866, triggering a review of what the CFTC describes as a proposed rule on “Prediction Markets.” The filing does not include the text of the proposed rule.

The move marks one of the clearest signs yet that the CFTC is preparing a broader federal framework for event contracts, following months of legal and political battles over sports and election markets.

Illinois, New Jersey and other states have argued that sports-linked event contracts effectively function as online betting markets. Kalshi and the CFTC have countered that designated contract markets regulated under federal commodities law fall under the agency’s exclusive authority.

The executive order governs how major federal regulations are vetted before publication, requiring agencies to submit significant rules for economic and policy analysis. OIRA, a division within the Office of Management and Budget, oversees the process.

The timing comes days after President Donald Trump publicly backed the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets, as CoinDesk previously reported, calling it “critically important” that the agency retain “exclusive authority” over the sector in a Truth Social post.

The proposal follows a March advance notice of proposed rulemaking in which the CFTC sought public comment on which prediction market contracts may be prohibited as “contrary to the public interest,” including contracts tied to elections, gaming, and sports.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked a federal court to vacate its $5 million settlement with crypto exchange Gemini, claiming that the agency’s enforcement action was based on flawed allegations.

Gemini settled with the CFTC and paid a $5 million fine in January 2025 in the final weeks of the Biden administration after the agency accused it of making false or misleading statements related to a Bitcoin futures contract.

The CFTC filed a joint motion with Gemini in a Manhattan court on Wednesday seeking to vacate the settlement, adding in a statement that it had reviewed the matter and concluded that the “complaint should not have been filed — and would not have been under current enforcement standards.”

The CFTC said the complaint, brought under the Biden administration, was “largely based on a whistleblower’s account known to be lacking in credibility.” 

“Accordingly, the CFTC determined that continuing enforcement of the consent order’s prospective provisions serves neither the CFTC’s mission nor the public interest,” it said.

Source: CFTC

The CFTC’s request adds to a string of crypto lawsuits and investigations that the agency and the Securities and Exchange Commission have abandoned under US President Donald Trump.

Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss each donated $1 million to Trump’s election campaign in 2024.

The CFTC’s motion comes after Trump’s former CFTC chair nominee, Brian Quintenz, in September shared on X messages from Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss, who asked if he would review the agency’s case against the company if he were made chair.

Trump later withdrew Quintenz’s nomination and instead backed Mike Selig, a former lawyer for crypto companies who has taken a supportive stance toward the crypto industry.

The CFTC’s request seeks to end ongoing obligations imposed on Gemini under the settlement, including an injunction barring it from making false or misleading statements to the agency. 

“Applying the remaining provisions — including injunctive relief — prospectively would not be equitable,” the agency said. It noted that Gemini has already paid a $5 million fine, but it was not clear if the agency would refund the penalty.

The case stemmed from allegations that Gemini made misleading statements in 2022 during the review of a Bitcoin futures contract, particularly regarding its auction volumes and liquidity. 

The CFTC said these claims were relevant to assessing risk and the contract’s approval. 

Related: CME Group to launch regulated Bitcoin volatility futures 

The CFTC’s complaint relied on allegations from a whistleblower in 2017, who claimed that Gemini inflated trading activity and volumes to distort user demand.

The agency argued in its latest filing that the whistleblower’s allegations were based on statements from Gemini’s former chief operating officer and a subordinate, who allegedly made threats against Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and was allegedly known to lie about material facts.

The CFTC also argued that Gemini was a victim of fraud, claiming that two customers exploited Gemini’s “preferential fee structures through a coordinated rebate-fraud scheme.”

It also alleged that the two customers admitted defrauding Gemini of $7.5 million through this scheme, but the past leadership “did nothing with those admissions.”

Cointelegraph contacted Gemini and the CFTC for comment.

Magazine: eToro founder timed Bitcoin top perfectly due to belief in 4 year cycles

Ethereum traded below the $2,000 level as on-chain activity weakened and short-term technical indicators stayed under pressure.

The move came as exchange withdrawal data dropped to its lowest level since June 2024, while failed transactions and exchange inflows showed fresh signs of network and market stress.

Ethereum withdrawals fall to June 2024 low

Data from the Ethereum Exchange Outflow 30D indicator showed that total withdrawals from exchanges fell to about 16.05 million ETH. Arab Chain said the reading marked the lowest level since June 2024.

Lower exchange withdrawals can show that fewer users are moving ETH away from trading platforms. This often points to slower long-term accumulation, especially when price action remains weak or range-bound.

Binance led Ethereum withdrawals with about 7.00 million ETH. OKX followed with around 1.43 million ETH, while Coinbase Prime ranked third with about 1.12 million ETH. Kraken, Bitget, and HTX Global recorded lower withdrawal activity.

The drop does not give a direct bearish signal on its own. Still, it shows that off-exchange activity has slowed at a time when Ethereum is trying to hold key support levels.

Failed transactions and inflows add pressure

Separate on-chain data shared by nino showed that Ethereum failed transactions may be rising. The same update also pointed to a slight increase in exchange inflows.

The analyst described the failed transaction count as “may be experiencing an upward trend” and said the mix of network friction and exchange-bound liquidity “could possibly indicate a somewhat bearish outlook.”

A rise in failed transactions can suggest higher network friction, user errors, or pressure around smart contract activity. It does not always mean demand is falling, but it can weaken confidence when paired with soft price action.

Exchange inflows can also carry market risk. When more ETH moves onto exchanges, traders may prepare to sell, hedge, or reposition. That does not confirm selling, but it adds caution during a weak market.

Ethereum price breaks below $2,000

Ethereum (ETH) traded near $1,986 after falling below the $2,000 mark. The move placed ETH under a key psychological level that traders often watch during market pullbacks.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the broader crypto market remained under pressure on May 28 after Bitcoin and Ethereum broke key support levels. The report said more than $900 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated across the derivatives market.

Ethereum also fell as the total crypto market weakened. Bitcoin dropped below $73,000, while major altcoins also posted losses as traders reduced exposure to risk assets.

Santiment said Ethereum’s drop below $2,000 triggered more “buy the dip” calls from retail traders. The firm warned that strong crowd optimism after a sharp decline can sometimes mean the market still has more downside before fear returns.

ETH technical analysis shows bearish bias

Ethereum remains below the Bollinger Band midline near $2,169. That shows short-term weakness because price has not reclaimed the central range.

ETH is also trading close to the lower Bollinger Band near $1,957. This area now acts as a key support zone. A break below it would show stronger downside pressure and could expose lower price levels.

The Bollinger Bands are compressing after the recent decline. The upper band sits near $2,380, while the lower band sits near $1,957. A recovery above $2,169 would be the first clear sign that the short-term structure is improving.

The RSI stands near 29.69, below its moving average near 36.02. This confirms weak momentum and seller control. However, the low RSI also means ETH is close to oversold territory, where short-term relief bounces can form if buyers return.

For now, Ethereum’s short-term setup remains bearish. Holding the $1,950–$1,970 area is important. A drop below that range could keep sellers in control, while a move back above $2,169 would ease pressure and help rebuild recovery momentum.