Goldman Sachs has revised its Federal Reserve forecast and now expects a 25-basis-point rate increase when policymakers conclude their Sept. 15–16 meeting.

CoinDesk reported on Sept. 13 that Goldman abandoned its previous forecast for no change after August consumer inflation data and interest-rate futures strengthened the case for a hike.

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 16. A press conference is scheduled for 2:30 p.m., according to the Federal Reserve’s official calendar.

A quarter-point increase would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed has not committed to that decision, and futures pricing represents market expectations, not an official indication from policymakers.

Goldman Sachs changes its Fed rate hike forecast

Goldman’s economists said the August Consumer Price Index report produced only a small revision to their core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation estimate. The bank raised its forecast for monthly core PCE to 0.26%, according to the research note cited by CoinDesk.

“[The report] has not changed our fundamental inflation view,” Goldman said. The bank argued, however, that holding rates unchanged could provoke a sharp response because markets had assigned close to a 90% probability to an increase.

Interest-rate futures put the probability at 87% after the CPI release, up from 72% one day earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported. The probability of at least one increase by year-end reached 97%.

Goldman’s revised forecast does not mean the firm knows how Fed officials will vote. It shows that the bank considers an increase the most likely outcome based on available economic data, policymaker communication and market pricing.

A Reuters poll completed before the CPI release found that most economists still expected the Fed to hold rates through 2026. Reuters noted that confidence in the no-change forecast had weakened as more analysts began anticipating at least one increase.

August inflation delivered mixed signals

The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August after seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Headline inflation remained at 3.4% over the preceding 12 months, unchanged from July.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% during the month. Its annual rate eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, reaching its lowest level in five years.

Energy costs presented a different picture. The BLS said the energy index increased 16.3% over the year through August, while food prices gained 2.7%.

Communication services, lodging, airline fares, education, and used vehicles recorded monthly increases. Medical care and motor vehicle insurance were among the categories that declined.

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said service-sector details remained uncomfortable for the Fed despite the lower annual core rate. She estimated that services excluding housing components increased 0.5% during August and 3% from one year earlier.

“The gains were heavily in services,” Swonk said. Her description of the service data as evidence of persistent pressure represents an economic assessment, not a conclusion issued by the BLS or Federal Reserve.

Swonk estimated that August headline PCE inflation could rise 0.4% monthly, with core PCE increasing 0.3%. Her forecast would place the respective annual rates at 3.8% and 3.4%, but the Bureau of Economic Analysis has not released the August PCE report.

Economists dispute the case for higher rates

James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, questioned whether the economic data justified the change in Wall Street forecasts. He argued that Goldman’s revision appeared tied more closely to market expectations than to a changed inflation outlook.

“No material change in inflation outlook, but a hike to calm Wall Street,” Thorne said. His statement represents his interpretation of Goldman’s reasoning and does not establish the Fed’s motive.

Thorne pointed to annual wage growth of 3.1% and said he saw no verified wage-price spiral. He argued that higher borrowing costs cannot expand oil production or repair supply disruptions, while rate increases can reduce demand, investment and household purchasing power.

Swonk reached a different conclusion. She expects three rate increases by early 2027 and said the August report raised the possibility of a unanimous September vote.

“We now expect three rate hikes by early 2027,” she said. The projection belongs to KPMG and has not been endorsed by the FOMC.

The Fed targets 2% inflation using the PCE price index, not CPI. Although annual core CPI fell to 2.4%, Swonk’s forecast places core PCE at a higher 3.4%, showing why analysts have reached different conclusions from the same CPI release.

Bitcoin reacts as Fed expectations rise

Bitcoin traded around $77,000 on Sept. 13 after moving between an intraday low near $76,500 and a high above $77,400. Its price remained below $80,000 as traders prepared for the Fed announcement.

Following the CPI release, Bitcoin briefly recovered above $78,000 as rate-hike odds reached 81%, as crypto.news reported. The probability cited in that article came from Polymarket and was lower than the 87% futures estimate reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Before the inflation figures, Bitcoin had remained near $79,500 as three U.S. economic catalysts approached. The scheduled events included producer inflation, consumer inflation and the September FOMC meeting.

Earlier in September, Bitcoin faced rising rate-hike expectations despite continued ETF demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows can support demand, though they do not remove the market’s exposure to interest rates, Treasury yields or changes in the U.S. dollar.

Crypto prices frequently respond to Fed decisions because higher interest rates can increase yields on lower-risk assets. Individual market moves may have several causes, making it difficult to attribute Bitcoin’s daily price changes exclusively to monetary policy expectations.

Fed will release rates and projections on Sept. 16

The FOMC’s two-day meeting begins Sept. 15. Policymakers will release a policy statement, updated economic projections and their individual expectations for future interest rates when the meeting ends the following day.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will address reporters 30 minutes after the statement. Questions are likely to cover energy-driven inflation, service prices, labor-market conditions and whether a September increase would begin a longer tightening cycle.

The Summary of Economic Projections will provide officials’ estimates for inflation, unemployment, economic growth and the federal funds rate. Its rate projections are not binding commitments and may change when new data becomes available.

Markets will compare the policy statement with the Fed’s previous language for any change in its assessment of inflation and employment. Investors will watch whether Warsh describes a rate increase as a one-time adjustment or leaves further decisions dependent on incoming data.

A unanimous vote is not guaranteed. The statement will identify any dissenting officials and specify whether they preferred no change, a larger increase or another policy option. The FOMC will publish its interest-rate decision and economic projections at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 16, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Mexican authorities have seized roughly 300 GPUs from a suspected illicit crypto mining farm in Puebla while investigating possible electricity theft and money laundering.

Reuters reported on Sept. 12 that investigators discovered the operation in the mountainous municipality of Tlaola, near infrastructure connected to a hydroelectric system.

The equipment included approximately 80 medium-voltage terminals, eight satellite antennas and a pedestal transformer. Authorities described the site as the fourth comparable mining operation found in the region since early 2025.

No agency has publicly identified the cryptocurrency being mined. Investigators have not named an organized crime group, disclosed related wallet addresses or announced any arrests.

Mexico crypto mining raid uncovered industrial equipment

Personnel from Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office, the Mexican Navy and Puebla’s Public Security Secretariat participated in securing the property, according to a local report published after the operation.

Authorities found around 300 specialized computers operating inside the building. The medium-voltage connections and transformer indicate that the facility had access to an industrial-scale electricity supply, although investigators have not released its measured consumption.

Satellite antennas supplied communications infrastructure in an area where fixed internet access may be limited. Officials have not identified the satellite provider or explained whether subscriber records are being sought as part of the investigation.

Residents of nearby communities told Reuters that the equipment’s mechanical noise could be heard from one kilometer away. The building stood roughly two kilometers from the nearest village, along a lightly traveled road in Puebla’s Sierra Norte region.

Puebla security chief Francisco Sánchez González said the facility’s electricity demand, operating noise and isolated location drew attention from authorities. He told reporters that officials had been following reports of suspected mining activity near the Nuevo Necaxa hydroelectric system.

Cryptocurrency mining is not prohibited in Mexico. The criminal inquiry concerns the source of the electricity and whether assets generated at the site were connected to money laundering or other illicit activity.

Electricity theft remains an allegation under investigation

Mexican authorities are examining whether the farm drew electricity without authorization from infrastructure near the hydroelectric dam. Neither the Federal Electricity Commission nor prosecutors have publicly confirmed the alleged illegal connection.

Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office declined Reuters’ request for further comment because the case remains active. Officials have not released an inspection report, estimated electricity loss or evidence showing how the facility’s power supply was connected.

“If they were stealing the electricity, the main costs of the operation would be, well — nothing,” Samuel Leon, an energy-theft specialist at Mexico’s Iberoamericana University, told Reuters. His statement was conditional because investigators have not completed their findings. Electricity commonly represents one of a mining farm’s largest operating expenses. Powerful computing units run continuously while cooling equipment removes the heat generated by the machines.

Other governments have uncovered mining sites supported by bypassed meters or unauthorized power connections. As crypto.news reported, Malaysian police seized 73 Bitcoin miners during electricity-theft raids in July 2026.

Thai authorities confiscated 996 Bitcoin mining machines after the country’s electricity authority said operators had tampered with meters. The Thai case involved confirmed meter interference, while Mexico’s Puebla investigation has not reached a comparable public finding.

Federal Electricity Commission figures cited by El País recorded 6,346 gigawatt-hours of nontechnical losses between January and July 2024. The category covered electricity theft, meter manipulation and illegal connections across the utility’s system, carrying an estimated commercial value of 13.8 billion pesos.

The national data does not measure losses from the Tlaola operation. Authorities have not disclosed when the Puebla site began operating or how much electricity it consumed.

Suspected cartel involvement has not been established

Reuters described the farm as a suspected method for laundering illicit proceeds, citing analysts who study organized crime and cryptocurrency. Mexican authorities have said they are examining whether the mined assets could have been used to make criminal funds appear legitimate.

Investigators have not publicly linked the facility to a named cartel. No evidence released so far establishes who financed, managed or benefited from the operation.

“Drug cartels appear to have reached a new level of sophistication,” Mexico-based security analyst David Saucedo told Reuters. He said installing the equipment would require technical knowledge and financial support that a well-funded criminal organization could provide. Saucedo’s assessment does not constitute an official finding. The same infrastructure could be operated by other criminal groups or independent electricity thieves, and prosecutors have not disclosed ownership records for the property or equipment.

Chainalysis Latin America specialist Caio Motta said organized crime groups seek mining locations where electricity is inexpensive or can be stolen in territory under their influence. “[Such operations may be placed where criminals] are able to steal electricity and establish a large infrastructure to mine cryptocurrency,” Motta told Reuters. Chainalysis has not published wallet-level evidence connecting the Tlaola facility to a cartel.

Mining can produce newly issued cryptocurrency through computing work. Converting criminal cash into mining hardware can create a separate income stream, but officials have not explained the suspected laundering method in the Puebla case. The lack of disclosed wallet addresses prevents an independent review of any coins produced, transfers received or exchanges used. Authorities have not identified the mining pool, software, digital asset or destination wallets connected with the seized machines.

Global illicit crypto totals require careful context

Chainalysis estimated that cryptocurrency addresses identified as illicit received at least $154 billion during 2025, compared with roughly $59 billion in 2024. The company described its figure as a preliminary estimate that could rise when researchers identify more criminal addresses.

Transactions involving sanctioned entities drove much of the increase. Chainalysis recorded a 694% rise in value received by sanctioned services and jurisdictions, while stablecoins represented 84% of the illicit transaction volume measured by the company.

The $154 billion estimate covers several categories, including scams, stolen funds, sanctions activity, ransomware and illicit services. It does not represent cartel transactions alone or the amount of cryptocurrency produced through illegal mining. According to Chainalysis, known illicit activity still represented less than 1% of total cryptocurrency transaction volume. The firm’s data covers transactions recorded on public blockchains and excludes activity that cannot be connected to identified illicit addresses.

Investigators can trace transfers on transparent blockchains once they identify a relevant address, but attribution often requires exchange records, device evidence or information from service providers. Privacy-focused assets and transactions occurring inside centralized platforms may present further limits. Motta said law enforcement agencies are becoming better equipped to investigate cryptocurrency use by organized crime. Mexican officials have not said whether blockchain analytics companies are participating in the Tlaola case.

Investigators are searching for more hidden farms

Three comparable crypto mining facilities were discovered during 2025 near the hydroelectric dam in northern Puebla, Reuters reported. The latest seizure is the fourth identified operation in the area since the beginning of that year.

Local authorities are working with neighboring states to determine whether other mining properties remain active. Officials have not named the participating states or published a timetable for inspections. Investigators are expected to examine the seized computers, internet equipment, electricity connections and property records. A forensic review could determine which assets were mined and where any rewards were sent, provided the machines retain usable data.

No public deadline has been set for an investigative report. Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office has not announced criminal charges, while the building and approximately 300 mining units remain under official custody.

Chainflip has lost 736,442.17 USDT through six unauthorized payouts after an attacker exploited its handling of TRON transaction memos.

Chainflip said in a Sept. 13 incident update that the attack targeted its TRON USDT integration during the early hours of Sept. 12. The cross-chain protocol paused operations while its developers investigated the transactions and prepared a fix.

One legitimate user swap worth 115,654.41 USDT remains unpaid. Chainflip said the funds are still held in its vault and can be released after the network restarts. The protocol reported that no other funds were affected.

The loss figure and attack sequence represent Chainflip’s current findings. No independent security assessment confirming the full account had been published as of Sept. 13.

Chainflip’s TRON USDT integration paid deposits twice

Chainflip uses transaction memos to read swap instructions attached to TRON transfers. On most other supported blockchains, the protocol receives instructions through dedicated contract functions.

According to the incident report, the attacker found a way to attach a new memo to a transaction that Chainflip validators had already signed. Chainflip’s systems interpreted the added memo as a separate swap instruction. When the new instruction appeared to fail, the protocol issued a refund.

The original deposit had already produced a payout. Processing the altered memo therefore caused Chainflip to pay against the same deposit for a second time.

Chainflip attributed the flaw to its own processing of TRON transaction memos. The protocol did not report a compromise of the TRON blockchain, the USDT smart contract or Tether’s reserve system.

The attacker repeated the method eight times during a period of roughly 90 minutes. Chainflip said the early attempts used small amounts. Each later attempt was close to twice the size of the one before it.

Only six attempts produced unauthorized payouts totaling 736,442.17 USDT. The protocol did not publish individual transaction hashes, destination wallet addresses or a breakdown of the six payments in its preliminary report.

Failed USDT payouts exposed the attack

Chainflip detected the incident after subsequent USDT payments began failing. Developers then traced the failures to the repeated processing of deposits through altered memos.

The protocol suspended network activity as it examined whether the weakness could affect other assets or integrations. Its preliminary review found that the exploit was limited to TRON USDT and that the remaining vault funds were secure.

Chainflip has described the incident as its first critical security event involving money taken from protocol vaults. Earlier operational problems had not caused a comparable loss from those vaults, according to the project.

The network pause prevents swaps from being completed while developers prepare the restart. Chainflip has not reported a separate loss for users whose transactions were interrupted by the shutdown.

Emergency suspensions have been used by other blockchain services while developers isolate security failures. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that Liquid Network resumed block production after an emergency update, while transfers and peg operations remained restricted following a reported $320 million withdrawal.

Chainflip has not identified a connection between the two incidents. The Liquid Network report concerns a separate Bitcoin sidechain and a different technical system.

Chainflip prepares repayments and asset recovery

Chainflip said affected users would be made whole, although the protocol had not selected or published its reimbursement method by Sept. 13. The team said several options remained under review.The unpaid 115,654.41 USDT transaction is not counted among the six unauthorized payouts. Its funds remain in the vault, and Chainflip expects to process the swap after operations resume.

Meanwhile, the protocol has notified relevant parties about the stolen funds in an effort to track or recover the proceeds as they move between addresses and services. Chainflip did not name the parties, disclose whether the attacker used centralized exchanges or confirm that any USDT had been frozen.

Tether can freeze addresses holding its tokens when acting under applicable legal or enforcement processes. As crypto.news reported in separate coverage, Tether helped U.S. authorities restrain more than $52 million in cryptocurrency during an unrelated Justice Department action.

No public statement from Tether or TRON concerning the Chainflip attack had been identified by the time of publication. Chainflip’s notice did not say whether either organization was helping trace the funds.

The protocol plans to begin covering user losses after it restarts safely. Its preliminary statement did not set a payment date or explain whether compensation would come from treasury assets, insurance or another source.

Monday restart depends on the technical rollout

Chainflip said the underlying fix had been completed, but developers still needed to settle the exact restart procedure. The network would remain paused “until Monday at the earliest,” making Sept. 14 the earliest possible restoration date instead of a confirmed launch time.

Before reopening, the team plans to finalize a technical restart plan designed to avoid further processing problems. Chainflip has not disclosed whether validators will need new software, a coordinated upgrade or a governance vote.

Once the system resumes, the protocol expects to process the pending 115,654.41 USDT swap and begin handling compensation for users whose funds were paid to the attacker.

A complete technical report will follow after the restart plan is locked down and the network is operating securely, Chainflip said. The protocol has not announced a publication deadline for that report.

BNB Chain has added $3.62 billion in real-world asset value during 2026, surpassing Solana’s $2.66 billion increase in CryptoRank’s latest blockchain ranking.

CryptoRank reported the figures on Sept. 11, placing BNB Chain first for year-to-date RWA value growth. Stellar ranked third after adding $2.50 billion, while Ethereum followed with an increase of $1.6 billion.

The comparison measures dollar growth during 2026. It does not show that BNB Chain has surpassed Ethereum in total RWA value, nor does it establish BNB Chain as the largest RWA network by outstanding assets.