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US Bond Market Is Flashing a Major Warning: Is This the Setup Bitcoin Was Built For?

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Inflation is heating up again, as evidenced by the PPI data that came out on Thursday. Treasury yields are approaching 5%, and the US government is trying to stabilize the bond market while proposing another trillion-dollar stimulus program.

The immediate implications for bitcoin are bearish. However, the longer-term picture is considerably more complicated.

Bad For BTC (For Now)

August producer prices rose 5.4% year-over-year, which was just slightly over expectations. At the same time, Brent crude jumped past $100 this week as the situation in the Middle East sees no actual improvement and supply disruptions continue. The probability of a rate hike after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on September 16 is over 70%, according to futures markets and some prediction platforms.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to just under 5%, despite the Treasury’s ongoing efforts to improve liquidity in long-dated government debt. Higher yields typically mean tighter financial conditions, a stronger incentive to hold relatively safe government debt, and, unfortunately for the bitcoin bulls, less appetite for speculative assets.

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This helps explain why BTC’s initial rally that drove it from under $65,000 to $82,000 hit a brick wall, and the asset has been unable to push through in the past few weeks. However, that’s only half the story.

Bullish Long Term

As previously reported, the Treasury initially doubled the long-term buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation on August 19, which triggered the first BTC leg up. At the same time, long-term yields immediately dipped, and the dollar weakened.

The Treasury Department went a step further earlier this week, increasing the purchases to $6 billion. Now, though, there’s President Trump’s proposition to give every American adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress in November. According to estimates, this could cost somewhere between $1.20 trillion and $1.35 trillion and would require congressional approval.

The analysts at the Kobeissi Letter described this as an “unprecedented” situation. We have inflation remaining too high for the Fed to ease monetary policy, while massive deficits and rising interest costs are simultaneously creating pressure for lower borrowing costs.

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The Kobeissi Letter argued that these forces will favor asset owners and specifically pointed to BTC, gold, and stocks. However, this doesn’t guarantee that BTC will automatically thrive in the current economic structure. In fact, the path forward could be painful at first.

If inflation keeps rising and the Fed responds with additional rate hikes, BTC could face more pressure as yields climb. The bullish narrative emerges later if fiscal stress eventually forces policymakers toward heavier intervention, looser financial conditions, or policies that expand normal spending.

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CLARITY Act Odds Slashed to 60-Vote Senate Test Comes Into View

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CLARITY Act Odds Slashed to  60-Vote Senate Test Comes Into View

CLARITY Act odds on Kalshi for the bill to become law in 2026 stood at 25% on September 13, down from 82% in February. At the same time, a separate Kalshi market put the probability of a U.S. Senate vote before October 1 at 94%.

The difference reflects two distinct questions: whether the Senate will take up the measure and whether the bill will complete the full legislative process and be signed into law, with a full-blown crypto bull market hinging on its passage.

The Senate is due to consider the measure on September 15. The Kalshi concerns whether H.R. 3633, formerly known as the CLARITY Act, will be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026. A vote on the motion to proceed is an earlier procedural stage, rather than final enactment.

Make Your CLARITY Act Prediction Count With $25 For Free on Kalshi

CLARITY Act Odds: A Vote Is Not the Same as a Law

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More than $8M has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract covering the bill’s enactment. The market’s implied probability fell from 82% in February to 16% on September 7.

Views on the Senate threshold differ. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in a CNBC interview that he was rather optimistic about obtaining 60 votes and characterized the negotiations as having delivered most of what both sides wanted.

Other estimates cited in the source report were more cautious. Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners lowered his estimate of the bill’s chances of passage from about 40% to 25%.

Galaxy Digital’s estimate in August was 10%. These assessments, like the prediction-market prices, address the prospects for legislation that must move beyond a procedural Senate vote.

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Make Your CLARITY Act Prediction Count With $25 For Free on Kalshi

Why 53 Republican Seats Isn’t Enough

In other CLARITY Act odds news, September 15 is expected to center on a motion to proceed, a step that authorizes debate on the bill rather than passing it outright. Supporters need 60 favorable votes. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so at least seven Democrats would need to join them to overcome cloture.

The CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. The bill is intended to establish a federal framework for the U.S. crypto market.

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Under the proposal described in the source report, the CFTC would receive exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while the SEC would retain oversight of certain securities offerings and crypto exchange activities.

Three areas of disagreement remain. Several Democrats, including Kirsten Gillibrand, are seeking a binding ban on public officials holding crypto assets. Traditional banks have resisted compromise over stablecoin rewards.

Lawmakers also remain divided over protections for decentralized finance protocols and non-custodial software developers, with concerns that some language could create regulatory loopholes.

Earn $50 and Enter $300K Prize Draw on EdgeX

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What Happens After September 15

If the motion to proceed receives the necessary votes, the legislation would move into formal debate. The outstanding disagreements over ethics, stablecoin rewards, and protections for DeFi and non-custodial developers would still need to be addressed. If cloture does not clear, the bill would not advance through that procedural step.

The legislative route is not the only avenue for crypto policy. The SEC and CFTC are already pursuing work on crypto regulation without waiting for Congress.

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Under Paul Atkins, the SEC has abandoned certain enforcement actions and outlined a taxonomy of crypto assets, according to the source report. The CFTC is working on issues involving leveraged exchanges and DeFi.

Regulatory action can provide a framework outside legislation, but agency rules can also be changed by a future administration. The September 15 proceeding, therefore, remains important as a gauge of whether the CLARITY Act can begin Senate debate, while the prediction markets highlight the separate question of whether it can become law in 2026.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

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Bitcoin wallet keys emerge from radioactive decay

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DOG Mode opens a new front in Bitcoin’s governance fight

An open-source Bitcoin seed generator has converted radioactive decay events into 12-word and 24-word BIP39 recovery phrases using an offline hardware device.

Summary

  • Entropy32 Plus converts radioactive decay timing into twelve or twenty-four word Bitcoin recovery phrases offline.
  • Firmware collects 512 comparison bits before conditioning the pool with its SHA-256 implementation locally offline.
  • The device stores generated words temporarily in RAM and provides a manual wipe command afterward.
  • Its developer says entropy quality remains unvalidated under NIST SP 800-90B testing and independent review.
  • Open-source files cover firmware, circuit boards, fabrication data, enclosures and the BIP39 wordlist for inspection.

The Entropy32 Plus repository, published by developer Alexander Higgins in September 2026, contains the project’s firmware, circuit-board designs, fabrication files and printable enclosure. Higgins describes the device as an experimental, educational project and warns users not to trust it with substantial funds before an independent review.

Known as “The Universe Bifurcator,” the device takes pulses from a Geiger counter and measures the time between detected events. Its firmware converts comparisons between consecutive intervals into bits, collects a 512-bit input pool and processes the data with SHA-256.

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Entropy32 Plus then formats part of the resulting hash as a standard BIP39 recovery phrase. The device operates without Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or persistent seed storage, according to its published design.

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Entropy32 Plus measures time between radiation events

Radioactive decay occurs unpredictably at the level of individual atoms. Entropy32 Plus uses the timing of detected decay events as its physical source of randomness instead of relying solely on a software-generated value.

The current design accepts pulses through a 3.5-millimeter connection from a GQ Electronics GMC-320S Geiger counter. Its documentation says the counter can detect emissions from a radioactive source or background radiation.

After receiving a pulse, an LM393 comparator converts the counter’s analog signal into a digital input. The custom circuit board passes that signal to an ATmega328P microcontroller.

The project’s firmware records each accepted event using a microsecond timer. It compares the latest interval with the preceding one, producing a one when the new interval is longer and a zero when it is shorter.

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Equal intervals are discarded. Measurements below 200 microseconds are rejected as possible glitches, while accepted comparisons continue until the device has collected 512 bits.

Higgins says this method uses pulse timing because the precise arrival of an individual decay event cannot be predicted. The developer does not claim that every collected comparison contributes one full bit of measured entropy.

SHA-256 conditions the raw Bitcoin seed data

Once the 512-bit pool is complete, Entropy32 Plus processes all 64 bytes through its bundled SHA-256 code. The firmware uses the first 16 bytes of the resulting hash for a 12-word phrase or all 32 bytes for a 24-word phrase.

According to the project, hashing is intended to reduce visible patterns linked to detector dead time, count-rate changes or correlations between measurements. Hash conditioning can spread available entropy across an output, but it does not prove how much unpredictability was present in the original data.

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The firmware includes a startup test for SHA-256. It calculates the hash of “abc” and compares the result with a known value. The device stops before collecting entropy if the answer is incorrect.

Passing the self-test confirms that the implementation returns the expected result for that test vector. It does not test the Geiger counter, assess pulse independence or measure the minimum entropy entering the hash.

The project collects twice as many comparison bits as the maximum 256-bit BIP39 input it produces. Until the physical source undergoes formal measurement, the repository does not establish how much usable entropy each comparison contains.

The device maps conditioned data to BIP39 words

Following SHA-256 conditioning, the device applies the process defined in the BIP39 specification. BIP39 converts an approved entropy length into a mnemonic sentence selected from a standardized list of 2,048 words.

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For a 12-word phrase, Entropy32 Plus uses 128 bits of conditioned data and calculates a four-bit checksum. The combined 132 bits are divided into twelve 11-bit groups, with each group selecting one word.

Its 24-word setting uses 256 bits and an eight-bit checksum. Dividing the resulting 264-bit sequence produces 24 word indexes.

Crypto.news’ seed phrase guide explains that recovery phrases hold the information needed to restore wallet access. Anyone who obtains the correct words in their proper order can recreate the wallet’s keys.

A seed phrase is not itself a collection of independently generated words. As crypto.news explained in its guide to public and private keys, modern Bitcoin wallets derive many private keys from one master seed. Weakness in the original entropy can therefore affect every address generated from it.

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Entropy32 Plus compiles the complete BIP39 English list into its firmware. The wordlist occupies 13,117 bytes, or roughly 43% of the microcontroller’s flash capacity, according to the repository.

With the OLED interface, SHA-256 implementation and collection logic included, the compiled program uses 30,006 of the chip’s 30,720 available bytes. Only 714 bytes remain unused.

Offline design keeps seeds away from connected devices

The published hardware files list no wireless communications hardware. Users operate the generator through two buttons and read the phrase from a 0.91-inch OLED screen.

Generated word indexes remain temporarily in the microcontroller’s RAM. Once the user records the phrase, pressing both buttons opens a confirmation process that overwrites the word array and restarts entropy collection.

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The firmware clears the original pool after copying it for processing. Temporary hash, checksum and entropy buffers are overwritten after the BIP39 indexes have been calculated.

According to the developer, the device does not save a recovery phrase to persistent memory. The open-source design does not include a secure element or a mechanism that proves the installed firmware matches the public code.

Physical isolation removes several network-based attack routes, but it does not verify that a device was assembled correctly or loaded with trusted software. A modified unit could display predetermined words or retain generated data without changing its outward appearance.

Crypto.news’ wallet security guide recommends keeping recovery phrases away from phones, cloud accounts, photographs and other connected systems. Entropy32 Plus’s screen-based process is consistent with offline transcription, provided the hardware and firmware are trusted.

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Independent entropy testing remains unfinished

The repository states that the Geiger-based entropy source has not been tested under NIST Special Publication 800-90B. NIST’s methodology covers the evaluation of physical entropy sources and includes separate procedures for independent and non-independent data.

Higgins calls for recording raw inter-arrival times over a long period and examining them with NIST’s non-IID minimum-entropy estimators. The firmware comments warn that general statistical test results alone would not establish sufficient entropy.

“Please verify the entropy source you intend to use otherwise understand that you will be using the device at your own risk,” the README states.

The developer recommends mixing the Geiger-derived data with another independently validated source before creating a wallet for valuable funds. No outside audit, NIST assessment or public raw-event dataset was included in the repository as of Sept. 13.

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Past wallet failures show why entropy testing extends beyond confirming that the final words follow BIP39 formatting. Crypto.news reported that Kraken’s security chief called for independent wallet testing after a Coldcard seed-generation vulnerability.

A related technical review explained how weak entropy can expose Bitcoin wallets without revealing which people use the affected devices. Attackers can generate possible seeds, derive their public addresses and search the blockchain for matches.

Crypto.news later reported that predictable seed generation remained exploitable after the underlying flaw had existed for years. Correcting faulty firmware cannot repair phrases generated earlier; affected users must create new wallets and transfer their assets.

Entropy32 Plus remains under active development. Its commit history shows an initial commit dated Sept. 4, followed by firmware, circuit-board and enclosure changes. The repository had no tagged production release or published timetable for completing an independent security assessment as of Sept. 13.

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Goldman Sachs backs 25bp Fed hike after CPI

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Goldman Sachs lowers gold target, and Bitcoin may feel the pressure

Goldman Sachs has revised its Federal Reserve forecast and now expects a 25-basis-point rate increase when policymakers conclude their Sept. 15–16 meeting.

Summary

  • Goldman Sachs now expects a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at Wednesday’s policy decision meeting.
  • August consumer prices rose 0.4%, while annual headline inflation stayed unchanged at 3.4% across America.
  • Core CPI increased 0.3% monthly but eased to a five-year-low 2.4% annual rate in August.
  • Interest-rate futures assigned an 87% probability to a September hike after the inflation release Friday.
  • The FOMC will publish its decision, projections, and policy statement on September 16 in Washington.

CoinDesk reported on Sept. 13 that Goldman abandoned its previous forecast for no change after August consumer inflation data and interest-rate futures strengthened the case for a hike.

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 16. A press conference is scheduled for 2:30 p.m., according to the Federal Reserve’s official calendar.

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A quarter-point increase would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed has not committed to that decision, and futures pricing represents market expectations, not an official indication from policymakers.

Goldman Sachs changes its Fed rate hike forecast

Goldman’s economists said the August Consumer Price Index report produced only a small revision to their core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation estimate. The bank raised its forecast for monthly core PCE to 0.26%, according to the research note cited by CoinDesk.

“[The report] has not changed our fundamental inflation view,” Goldman said. The bank argued, however, that holding rates unchanged could provoke a sharp response because markets had assigned close to a 90% probability to an increase.

Interest-rate futures put the probability at 87% after the CPI release, up from 72% one day earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported. The probability of at least one increase by year-end reached 97%.

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Goldman’s revised forecast does not mean the firm knows how Fed officials will vote. It shows that the bank considers an increase the most likely outcome based on available economic data, policymaker communication and market pricing.

A Reuters poll completed before the CPI release found that most economists still expected the Fed to hold rates through 2026. Reuters noted that confidence in the no-change forecast had weakened as more analysts began anticipating at least one increase.

August inflation delivered mixed signals

The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August after seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Headline inflation remained at 3.4% over the preceding 12 months, unchanged from July.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% during the month. Its annual rate eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, reaching its lowest level in five years.

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Energy costs presented a different picture. The BLS said the energy index increased 16.3% over the year through August, while food prices gained 2.7%.

Communication services, lodging, airline fares, education, and used vehicles recorded monthly increases. Medical care and motor vehicle insurance were among the categories that declined.

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said service-sector details remained uncomfortable for the Fed despite the lower annual core rate. She estimated that services excluding housing components increased 0.5% during August and 3% from one year earlier.

“The gains were heavily in services,” Swonk said. Her description of the service data as evidence of persistent pressure represents an economic assessment, not a conclusion issued by the BLS or Federal Reserve.

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Swonk estimated that August headline PCE inflation could rise 0.4% monthly, with core PCE increasing 0.3%. Her forecast would place the respective annual rates at 3.8% and 3.4%, but the Bureau of Economic Analysis has not released the August PCE report.

Economists dispute the case for higher rates

James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, questioned whether the economic data justified the change in Wall Street forecasts. He argued that Goldman’s revision appeared tied more closely to market expectations than to a changed inflation outlook.

“No material change in inflation outlook, but a hike to calm Wall Street,” Thorne said. His statement represents his interpretation of Goldman’s reasoning and does not establish the Fed’s motive.

Thorne pointed to annual wage growth of 3.1% and said he saw no verified wage-price spiral. He argued that higher borrowing costs cannot expand oil production or repair supply disruptions, while rate increases can reduce demand, investment and household purchasing power.

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Swonk reached a different conclusion. She expects three rate increases by early 2027 and said the August report raised the possibility of a unanimous September vote.

“We now expect three rate hikes by early 2027,” she said. The projection belongs to KPMG and has not been endorsed by the FOMC.

The Fed targets 2% inflation using the PCE price index, not CPI. Although annual core CPI fell to 2.4%, Swonk’s forecast places core PCE at a higher 3.4%, showing why analysts have reached different conclusions from the same CPI release.

Bitcoin reacts as Fed expectations rise

Bitcoin traded around $77,000 on Sept. 13 after moving between an intraday low near $76,500 and a high above $77,400. Its price remained below $80,000 as traders prepared for the Fed announcement.

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Following the CPI release, Bitcoin briefly recovered above $78,000 as rate-hike odds reached 81%, as crypto.news reported. The probability cited in that article came from Polymarket and was lower than the 87% futures estimate reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Before the inflation figures, Bitcoin had remained near $79,500 as three U.S. economic catalysts approached. The scheduled events included producer inflation, consumer inflation and the September FOMC meeting.

Earlier in September, Bitcoin faced rising rate-hike expectations despite continued ETF demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows can support demand, though they do not remove the market’s exposure to interest rates, Treasury yields or changes in the U.S. dollar.

Crypto prices frequently respond to Fed decisions because higher interest rates can increase yields on lower-risk assets. Individual market moves may have several causes, making it difficult to attribute Bitcoin’s daily price changes exclusively to monetary policy expectations.

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Fed will release rates and projections on Sept. 16

The FOMC’s two-day meeting begins Sept. 15. Policymakers will release a policy statement, updated economic projections and their individual expectations for future interest rates when the meeting ends the following day.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will address reporters 30 minutes after the statement. Questions are likely to cover energy-driven inflation, service prices, labor-market conditions and whether a September increase would begin a longer tightening cycle.

The Summary of Economic Projections will provide officials’ estimates for inflation, unemployment, economic growth and the federal funds rate. Its rate projections are not binding commitments and may change when new data becomes available.

Markets will compare the policy statement with the Fed’s previous language for any change in its assessment of inflation and employment. Investors will watch whether Warsh describes a rate increase as a one-time adjustment or leaves further decisions dependent on incoming data.

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A unanimous vote is not guaranteed. The statement will identify any dissenting officials and specify whether they preferred no change, a larger increase or another policy option. The FOMC will publish its interest-rate decision and economic projections at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 16, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.

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Mexico seizes 300 GPUs at suspected illicit crypto farm

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Mexico seizes 300 GPUs at suspected illicit crypto farm

Mexican authorities have seized roughly 300 GPUs from a suspected illicit crypto mining farm in Puebla while investigating possible electricity theft and money laundering.

Summary

  • Mexican authorities seized roughly 300 GPUs from a suspected illicit cryptocurrency mining operation in Puebla.
  • Investigators are examining whether the remote facility illegally drew electricity from a nearby hydroelectric dam.
  • Authorities found eighty medium-voltage terminals, eight satellite antennas, and a transformer inside the secluded property.
  • No cartel, cryptocurrency, wallet address, arrest, or criminal charge has been publicly identified by investigators.
  • Chainalysis estimated illicit addresses received $154 billion during 2025, driven largely by sanctioned entities worldwide.

Reuters reported on Sept. 12 that investigators discovered the operation in the mountainous municipality of Tlaola, near infrastructure connected to a hydroelectric system.

The equipment included approximately 80 medium-voltage terminals, eight satellite antennas and a pedestal transformer. Authorities described the site as the fourth comparable mining operation found in the region since early 2025.

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No agency has publicly identified the cryptocurrency being mined. Investigators have not named an organized crime group, disclosed related wallet addresses or announced any arrests.

Mexico crypto mining raid uncovered industrial equipment

Personnel from Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office, the Mexican Navy and Puebla’s Public Security Secretariat participated in securing the property, according to a local report published after the operation.

Authorities found around 300 specialized computers operating inside the building. The medium-voltage connections and transformer indicate that the facility had access to an industrial-scale electricity supply, although investigators have not released its measured consumption.

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Satellite antennas supplied communications infrastructure in an area where fixed internet access may be limited. Officials have not identified the satellite provider or explained whether subscriber records are being sought as part of the investigation.

Residents of nearby communities told Reuters that the equipment’s mechanical noise could be heard from one kilometer away. The building stood roughly two kilometers from the nearest village, along a lightly traveled road in Puebla’s Sierra Norte region.

Puebla security chief Francisco Sánchez González said the facility’s electricity demand, operating noise and isolated location drew attention from authorities. He told reporters that officials had been following reports of suspected mining activity near the Nuevo Necaxa hydroelectric system.

Cryptocurrency mining is not prohibited in Mexico. The criminal inquiry concerns the source of the electricity and whether assets generated at the site were connected to money laundering or other illicit activity.

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Electricity theft remains an allegation under investigation

Mexican authorities are examining whether the farm drew electricity without authorization from infrastructure near the hydroelectric dam. Neither the Federal Electricity Commission nor prosecutors have publicly confirmed the alleged illegal connection.

Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office declined Reuters’ request for further comment because the case remains active. Officials have not released an inspection report, estimated electricity loss or evidence showing how the facility’s power supply was connected.

“If they were stealing the electricity, the main costs of the operation would be, well — nothing,” Samuel Leon, an energy-theft specialist at Mexico’s Iberoamericana University, told Reuters. His statement was conditional because investigators have not completed their findings. Electricity commonly represents one of a mining farm’s largest operating expenses. Powerful computing units run continuously while cooling equipment removes the heat generated by the machines.

Other governments have uncovered mining sites supported by bypassed meters or unauthorized power connections. As crypto.news reported, Malaysian police seized 73 Bitcoin miners during electricity-theft raids in July 2026.

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Thai authorities confiscated 996 Bitcoin mining machines after the country’s electricity authority said operators had tampered with meters. The Thai case involved confirmed meter interference, while Mexico’s Puebla investigation has not reached a comparable public finding.

Federal Electricity Commission figures cited by El País recorded 6,346 gigawatt-hours of nontechnical losses between January and July 2024. The category covered electricity theft, meter manipulation and illegal connections across the utility’s system, carrying an estimated commercial value of 13.8 billion pesos.

The national data does not measure losses from the Tlaola operation. Authorities have not disclosed when the Puebla site began operating or how much electricity it consumed.

Suspected cartel involvement has not been established

Reuters described the farm as a suspected method for laundering illicit proceeds, citing analysts who study organized crime and cryptocurrency. Mexican authorities have said they are examining whether the mined assets could have been used to make criminal funds appear legitimate.

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Investigators have not publicly linked the facility to a named cartel. No evidence released so far establishes who financed, managed or benefited from the operation.

“Drug cartels appear to have reached a new level of sophistication,” Mexico-based security analyst David Saucedo told Reuters. He said installing the equipment would require technical knowledge and financial support that a well-funded criminal organization could provide. Saucedo’s assessment does not constitute an official finding. The same infrastructure could be operated by other criminal groups or independent electricity thieves, and prosecutors have not disclosed ownership records for the property or equipment.

Chainalysis Latin America specialist Caio Motta said organized crime groups seek mining locations where electricity is inexpensive or can be stolen in territory under their influence. “[Such operations may be placed where criminals] are able to steal electricity and establish a large infrastructure to mine cryptocurrency,” Motta told Reuters. Chainalysis has not published wallet-level evidence connecting the Tlaola facility to a cartel.

Mining can produce newly issued cryptocurrency through computing work. Converting criminal cash into mining hardware can create a separate income stream, but officials have not explained the suspected laundering method in the Puebla case. The lack of disclosed wallet addresses prevents an independent review of any coins produced, transfers received or exchanges used. Authorities have not identified the mining pool, software, digital asset or destination wallets connected with the seized machines.

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Global illicit crypto totals require careful context

Chainalysis estimated that cryptocurrency addresses identified as illicit received at least $154 billion during 2025, compared with roughly $59 billion in 2024. The company described its figure as a preliminary estimate that could rise when researchers identify more criminal addresses.

Transactions involving sanctioned entities drove much of the increase. Chainalysis recorded a 694% rise in value received by sanctioned services and jurisdictions, while stablecoins represented 84% of the illicit transaction volume measured by the company.

The $154 billion estimate covers several categories, including scams, stolen funds, sanctions activity, ransomware and illicit services. It does not represent cartel transactions alone or the amount of cryptocurrency produced through illegal mining. According to Chainalysis, known illicit activity still represented less than 1% of total cryptocurrency transaction volume. The firm’s data covers transactions recorded on public blockchains and excludes activity that cannot be connected to identified illicit addresses.

Investigators can trace transfers on transparent blockchains once they identify a relevant address, but attribution often requires exchange records, device evidence or information from service providers. Privacy-focused assets and transactions occurring inside centralized platforms may present further limits. Motta said law enforcement agencies are becoming better equipped to investigate cryptocurrency use by organized crime. Mexican officials have not said whether blockchain analytics companies are participating in the Tlaola case.

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Investigators are searching for more hidden farms

Three comparable crypto mining facilities were discovered during 2025 near the hydroelectric dam in northern Puebla, Reuters reported. The latest seizure is the fourth identified operation in the area since the beginning of that year.

Local authorities are working with neighboring states to determine whether other mining properties remain active. Officials have not named the participating states or published a timetable for inspections. Investigators are expected to examine the seized computers, internet equipment, electricity connections and property records. A forensic review could determine which assets were mined and where any rewards were sent, provided the machines retain usable data.

No public deadline has been set for an investigative report. Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office has not announced criminal charges, while the building and approximately 300 mining units remain under official custody.

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Trump Urges Federal Reserve To Cut Rates As Market Bets On Warsh Hike

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Trump Urges Federal Reserve To Cut Rates As Market Bets On Warsh Hike

President Donald Trump reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, even as markets largely expect a rate hike this week amid surging crude oil prices and Treasury yields. “The United States is so strong, we should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world, regardless of their formulas,” Trump told reporters Sunday in Ireland, Bloomberg…

Copyright ©2026 Investor’s Business Daily, LLC. All rights reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Three leaders test the U.K. union

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Three leaders test the U.K. union

The pro-independence leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have scheduled a Cardiff summit for Sept. 14 to discuss cooperation on four policy areas, including self-determination.

Summary

  • Three pro-independence first ministers plan Monday talks covering self-determination, economic policy, energy, and European relations.
  • The Telegraph reports leaders will sign an agreement, but officials have not published its text.
  • Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth rejected claims that the summit seeks Britain’s immediate breakup.
  • Scotland cannot hold an independence referendum unilaterally because constitutional matters remain reserved to Westminster authorities.
  • Northern Ireland’s statutory referendum route depends on a judgment by Britain’s Northern Ireland secretary alone.

The Telegraph reported on Sept. 13 that Scottish First Minister John Swinney, Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth and Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill would sign a joint declaration or memorandum of understanding.

Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin’s president and leader of the opposition in Ireland’s Dáil, is expected to join the meeting at St David’s Hotel in Cardiff Bay. A press conference is planned after the talks.

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The reported agreement covers the economy, energy, relations with Europe and national self-determination. Its full text had not been published by the devolved governments or the participating parties as of Sept. 13.

Ap Iorwerth has rejected the claim that the gathering is designed to dismantle the U.K. Speaking to The Guardian before the summit, he said he did not approach cooperation with other nationalist parties as an effort “to break up the UK.”

“I want to build up my nation,” the Plaid Cymru leader said. He described Welsh independence as the eventual destination of a constitutional process, while stressing that the choice remained with voters and had no fixed timetable.

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Cardiff summit will focus on four shared areas

The planned memorandum is expected to commit the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin to cooperation where their policies overlap. Each party supports a different constitutional outcome because the legal and political position of every nation varies.

On economic policy, participants are expected to argue that the current U.K. model has not served people in the three devolved nations. The Telegraph reported that the parties would discuss tax and spending authority, energy resources and changes to the distribution of public money.

Plaid Cymru wants the U.K. government to transfer more fiscal powers to Wales. Its requests include revenue from the Crown Estate’s Welsh assets, including seabed leases used by offshore wind projects.

The party wants policing and justice devolved to Cardiff. Ap Iorwerth noted that, during his time as mayor of Greater Manchester, Prime Minister Andy Burnham exercised more influence over policing than the Welsh first minister currently holds.

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A Plaid source described cooperation on energy, the economy and Europe as practical work among parties sharing several interests. The source said the parties could operate “as partners and as equals” without presenting every policy question as part of an immediate independence campaign.

Independence votes follow different legal routes

Scotland’s constitutional route remains controlled by Westminster unless the legal framework changes. In its 2022 judgment, the U.K. Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament could not legislate unilaterally for an independence referendum because the proposed vote related to reserved matters.

The 2014 Scottish referendum proceeded after the U.K. and Scottish governments agreed temporarily to transfer the required authority through a Section 30 order. No equivalent authorization has been granted for another vote.

Burnham has said he would consider a further Scottish referendum if a “clear consensus” supported one. His government has not defined the polling, electoral or parliamentary conditions that would establish such a consensus.

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In a letter to Swinney, the prime minister maintained that another Scottish vote was “off limits” before the next general election. Burnham cited Labour’s 2024 manifesto, which opposed Scottish independence and another referendum.

Northern Ireland has a separate legal pathway under the 1998 Belfast Agreement and the Northern Ireland Act. The legislation requires the Northern Ireland secretary to call a border poll if it appears likely that a majority would vote to leave the U.K. and join a united Ireland.

No published government decision has determined that the statutory test has been met. Sinn Féin maintains that preparation for a poll should begin now, while the U.K. government says there is no clear basis to conclude that most Northern Irish voters currently support reunification.

Wales has no comparable statutory mechanism for an independence referendum. Any binding process would require agreement with Westminster or new legislation establishing the authority and terms for a vote.

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Welsh leader rejects immediate breakup framing

Ap Iorwerth became first minister after Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party in the May 2026 Senedd election. The result ended Labour’s record of being the largest party at every Welsh parliamentary election since devolution began.

Plaid holds 43 seats in the expanded 96-member Senedd. Reform UK became the main opposition with 34 seats, placing constitutional questions alongside disputes over public spending, policing and economic policy.

In Scotland, the SNP retained power during the 2026 Holyrood election despite losing six seats. Swinney has since promoted cooperation among the three nationalist-led administrations.

“For the first time ever, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are led by pro-independence first ministers,” Swinney said before the Cardiff meeting. His claim that the arrangement proves the existing settlement is “not sustainable” represents the SNP’s political position, not an agreed constitutional finding.

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Northern Ireland’s power-sharing system places O’Neill in a joint leadership structure with the deputy first minister. Decisions requiring Northern Ireland Executive authority cannot generally be made by the first minister acting alone. The Telegraph’s account refers to cooperation among the participating parties, but the unpublished agreement will determine whether any commitments are governmental or political.

Reform’s funding raises a separate political issue

The Cardiff meeting comes as Reform has expanded its financial resources across Britain. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that two crypto billionaires gave Reform UK £72 million through matching contributions announced within 24 hours.

Christopher Harborne, an investor in Tether and Bitfinex, and BitMEX co-founder Ben Delo each donated £36 million. Neither contribution was confirmed as a cryptocurrency payment. Reform said both donations complied with existing law.

The U.K. government is separately pursuing a prohibition on political donations made with cryptocurrency and a £100,000 annual limit for qualifying overseas electors. The proposed restrictions would not apply merely because a donor earned money in the crypto industry.

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Crypto.news previously reported that lawmakers had requested a moratorium on cryptocurrency political donations until stronger source-verification rules could be introduced.

Ap Iorwerth said Plaid Cymru could cooperate with Labour to prevent Reform from entering government. He framed the position as opposition to Reform’s politics, while acknowledging the party’s strong Welsh election result.

The first ministers are scheduled to hold their Cardiff talks on Sept. 14 and address reporters afterward. Publication of the memorandum would establish its final language, signatories and whether its commitments apply to the parties or their devolved administrations.

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Chainflip loses 736,442 USDT in TRON exploit

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DxSale exploit drains $7.3M in BNB through hidden contract backdoor

Chainflip has lost 736,442.17 USDT through six unauthorized payouts after an attacker exploited its handling of TRON transaction memos.

Summary

  • Chainflip reported 736,442.17 USDT lost through six unauthorized payouts tied to its TRON integration exploit.
  • Attackers repeated the same deposit eight times within approximately ninety minutes using altered transaction memos.
  • One pending swap worth 115,654.41 USDT remains unpaid, while its funds stay inside Chainflip’s vault.
  • Chainflip finalized a fix but said operations would remain paused until Monday at the earliest.
  • The protocol promised compensation, although its final reimbursement method and technical report remain pending publicly.

Chainflip said in a Sept. 13 incident update that the attack targeted its TRON USDT integration during the early hours of Sept. 12. The cross-chain protocol paused operations while its developers investigated the transactions and prepared a fix.

One legitimate user swap worth 115,654.41 USDT remains unpaid. Chainflip said the funds are still held in its vault and can be released after the network restarts. The protocol reported that no other funds were affected.

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The loss figure and attack sequence represent Chainflip’s current findings. No independent security assessment confirming the full account had been published as of Sept. 13.

Chainflip’s TRON USDT integration paid deposits twice

Chainflip uses transaction memos to read swap instructions attached to TRON transfers. On most other supported blockchains, the protocol receives instructions through dedicated contract functions.

According to the incident report, the attacker found a way to attach a new memo to a transaction that Chainflip validators had already signed. Chainflip’s systems interpreted the added memo as a separate swap instruction. When the new instruction appeared to fail, the protocol issued a refund.

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The original deposit had already produced a payout. Processing the altered memo therefore caused Chainflip to pay against the same deposit for a second time.

Chainflip attributed the flaw to its own processing of TRON transaction memos. The protocol did not report a compromise of the TRON blockchain, the USDT smart contract or Tether’s reserve system.

The attacker repeated the method eight times during a period of roughly 90 minutes. Chainflip said the early attempts used small amounts. Each later attempt was close to twice the size of the one before it.

Only six attempts produced unauthorized payouts totaling 736,442.17 USDT. The protocol did not publish individual transaction hashes, destination wallet addresses or a breakdown of the six payments in its preliminary report.

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Failed USDT payouts exposed the attack

Chainflip detected the incident after subsequent USDT payments began failing. Developers then traced the failures to the repeated processing of deposits through altered memos.

The protocol suspended network activity as it examined whether the weakness could affect other assets or integrations. Its preliminary review found that the exploit was limited to TRON USDT and that the remaining vault funds were secure.

Chainflip has described the incident as its first critical security event involving money taken from protocol vaults. Earlier operational problems had not caused a comparable loss from those vaults, according to the project.

The network pause prevents swaps from being completed while developers prepare the restart. Chainflip has not reported a separate loss for users whose transactions were interrupted by the shutdown.

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Emergency suspensions have been used by other blockchain services while developers isolate security failures. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that Liquid Network resumed block production after an emergency update, while transfers and peg operations remained restricted following a reported $320 million withdrawal.

Chainflip has not identified a connection between the two incidents. The Liquid Network report concerns a separate Bitcoin sidechain and a different technical system.

Chainflip prepares repayments and asset recovery

Chainflip said affected users would be made whole, although the protocol had not selected or published its reimbursement method by Sept. 13. The team said several options remained under review.The unpaid 115,654.41 USDT transaction is not counted among the six unauthorized payouts. Its funds remain in the vault, and Chainflip expects to process the swap after operations resume.

Meanwhile, the protocol has notified relevant parties about the stolen funds in an effort to track or recover the proceeds as they move between addresses and services. Chainflip did not name the parties, disclose whether the attacker used centralized exchanges or confirm that any USDT had been frozen.

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Tether can freeze addresses holding its tokens when acting under applicable legal or enforcement processes. As crypto.news reported in separate coverage, Tether helped U.S. authorities restrain more than $52 million in cryptocurrency during an unrelated Justice Department action.

No public statement from Tether or TRON concerning the Chainflip attack had been identified by the time of publication. Chainflip’s notice did not say whether either organization was helping trace the funds.

The protocol plans to begin covering user losses after it restarts safely. Its preliminary statement did not set a payment date or explain whether compensation would come from treasury assets, insurance or another source.

Monday restart depends on the technical rollout

Chainflip said the underlying fix had been completed, but developers still needed to settle the exact restart procedure. The network would remain paused “until Monday at the earliest,” making Sept. 14 the earliest possible restoration date instead of a confirmed launch time.

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Before reopening, the team plans to finalize a technical restart plan designed to avoid further processing problems. Chainflip has not disclosed whether validators will need new software, a coordinated upgrade or a governance vote.

Once the system resumes, the protocol expects to process the pending 115,654.41 USDT swap and begin handling compensation for users whose funds were paid to the attacker.

A complete technical report will follow after the restart plan is locked down and the network is operating securely, Chainflip said. The protocol has not announced a publication deadline for that report.

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There’s a New Tennis Force in Town: Elena Rybakina

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There’s a New Tennis Force in Town: Elena Rybakina

Would outlasting Sabalenka again, on a Saturday in New York City, to thwart Sabalenka’s well-publicized attempt at a U.S. Open three-peat, compel Rybakina to at least fall to the ground, as per tennis tradition? We’re not asking for a hardcourt snow angel over here. But Rybakina’s 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 victory over Sabalenka in Saturday’s U.S. Open final didn’t just make her a first-time U.S. Open champion. By winning two majors this year, Rybakina became one of the standout global athletes, across sports, in 2026. 

On Monday, she’ll take the world’s No. 1 ranking from Sabalenka.

How about a mere leap, Elena? 

Not here, not now. Rybakina, 27, just goes about her business. She aced Sabalenka, again, to clinch her third career major on Saturday. She raised her arms, hugged Sabalenka at the net, and clapped her racket, gently, as the Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd gave Rybakina her due. In a tournament marked by the “look at me” behavior of influencers and other clout chasers—in the stands blocking walkways and at times interrupting on-court proceedings with murmurs and selfies—Rybakina sent the opposite message. That approach, combined with her 2026 performance, is certainly worth our admiration. 

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Morgan Stanley Gives Huge Stock Market Crash Warning in 30 Days

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US Crude OIl Spot Prices. Source: TradingView

Morgan Stanley told investors a stock market correction could arrive within 30 days. However, based on developments over the weekend, markets may not wait that long, with Monday likely to be the first test.

Mike Wilson, the bank’s chief US equity strategist, is not worried about artificial intelligence (AI). He is worried about oil.

What Wilson is Actually Warning About

Wilson told Bloomberg that energy costs could starve the market of cash. US benchmark crude prices continue to hold above $100, up nearly 80% this year.

US Crude OIl Spot Prices. Source: TradingView
US Crude Oil Spot Prices. Source: TradingView

“I do think in the next 30 days, if oil goes to $120, $130, $140, that’s a drain on liquidity,” he said.

Wilson described market liquidity as sufficient for now, but not abundant.

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He is not telling clients to sell. Instead, Morgan Stanley is rotating toward companies that generate cash internally, not cutting equity exposure.

Is Coinbase the Place for Investors to Hide?

Morgan Stanley began covering Coinbase (COIN) on September 10, its first call on the exchange since the 2021 listing. While the rating was equal weight, the price target is $250, representing a climb of almost 43% from the current price of $175.26.

Coinbase Stock (COIN) Performance. Source: TradingView
Coinbase Stock (COIN) Performance. Source: TradingView

The bank argues Coinbase now works as financial plumbing rather than a crypto bet.

Bitcoin spot trading brings in just over 10% of revenue, down from more than half at listing, finance chief Alesia Haas said this week.

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That thesis has not met a risk-asset selloff yet. It might on Monday after key developments this weekend.

The Weekend Event Nobody Has Priced

However, markets may not have to wait that long, as something else landed after Friday’s close. Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei proposed slowing AI model development, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Elon Musk agreed.

Monday could be a bloodbath for the stock market. Likely temporary until the messaging & vision gets cleared up about super intelligence,” entrepreneur Patrick Bet-David stated.

That view assumes AI is carrying the index. However, data complicates this, with all indications suggesting the impact, if any, could be limited to tech stocks alone.

The standard S&P 500 (SPX) is weighted by company size, so the biggest AI names move it more than everyone else. An equal-weight version of the same 500 companies (SPXEW), which gives a small utility the same say as Nvidia, tracks how the average stock is doing.

Those two have run in line in 2026, both up roughly 13%. When AI leads a market, a wide gap opens between them. This year it has not.

SPXEW vs SPX Performance in 2026. Source: TradingView
SPXEW vs SPX Performance in 2026. Source: TradingView

BeInCrypto reached a similar conclusion in July, when the index’s worst stocks of 2026 fell more than 40% and AI disruption explained only part of the damage.

Nevertheless, even as Morgan Stanley’s clock runs 30 days, a possible risk-asset selloff could hit markets on Monday.

The post Morgan Stanley Gives Huge Stock Market Crash Warning in 30 Days appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Fed rate hike is about Wall Street, not inflation, says economist

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Fed rate hike is about Wall Street, not inflation, says economist


Goldman Sachs late Friday became the last of the major banks to retract its forecast of no rate hike next week.

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