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Why Multiple Resistance Tests Actually Increase Breakout Probability: Technical Analyst Reveals Market Truth

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR:

  • Each resistance test removes sell liquidity, gradually weakening the barrier rather than strengthening it. 
  • Short positions accumulate above tested resistance, creating stop-loss clusters that fuel explosive breakouts. 
  • Horizontal resistance levels with three or more touches demonstrate institutional recognition and setup quality. 
  • Repeated price returns to resistance signal market acceptance and persistent demand, not rejection behavior.

 

Breakout probability increases with multiple tests at resistance levels, contrary to traditional technical analysis teachings.

Technical analyst Aksel Kibar challenges conventional market wisdom in a detailed explanation of modern market dynamics. The analysis focuses on liquidity pools, order flow, and auction theory.

Classical teachings suggest resistance strengthens with repeated failures. However, market behavior demonstrates the opposite trend through systematic liquidity depletion. Each test removes available sell orders and transfers inventory from sellers to buyers.

Liquidity Depletion Weakens Resistance Over Time

Resistance levels function as liquidity pools rather than solid barriers. Modern markets reveal these zones contain clusters of limit orders and resting sell liquidity.

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Each price movement into resistance consumes available sell orders through transactions. This process gradually removes supply from the level.

The technical analyst compares resistance to ice being chipped away with each touch. Every test fills sell orders and reduces available supply at that price point.

Eventually, insufficient sellers remain to maintain the resistance level. This creates conditions favorable for eventual breakouts.

Buyers consistently absorb demand at these levels through repeated transactions. The inventory transfers from sellers to buyers during each test. This systematic reduction in available supply makes future breakouts structurally easier to achieve.

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Short Positions Create Breakout Fuel Above Resistance

Market participants tend to initiate new short positions after repeated failures at resistance. Confidence in the level grows with each rejection, leading to tighter stop-loss clustering above. This accumulation of stops creates latent energy that fuels eventual breakouts.

When resistance finally breaks, short sellers must cover their positions simultaneously. Breakout traders and momentum participants enter the market at the same time. This combination creates a liquidity vacuum that accelerates price movement upward.

Aksel Kibar notes on his platform that strong breakouts frequently occur after multiple failed attempts. The concentration of stop-loss orders above well-tested levels amplifies the breakout move. This pattern explains why persistent testing often leads to decisive directional moves.

Horizontal Boundaries Signal Institutional Recognition

Horizontal levels carry particular significance in technical analysis, according to the analyst. These boundaries indicate institutional recognition and shared market memory across time periods. Multiple touches increase participant awareness and order clustering around these levels.

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The analyst emphasizes mature chart patterns with a minimum of three touch points to pattern boundaries. This selection criterion improves signal quality and setup probability in trading decisions. Horizontal patterns from global exchanges demonstrate this principle consistently.

Markets operate as auction systems where repeated price returns signal ongoing negotiation. Persistence at specific levels indicates acceptance behavior rather than rejection.

Strong markets build bases through consolidation near resistance before continuation moves. This base-building process incorporates multiple tests as part of the natural market structure.

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Crypto World

Sharplink Posts $734M Loss Despite Higher Staking Income

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Sharplink reported a full-year net loss of $734 million after a decline in Ethereum prices reduced the value of its holdings.
  • The company recorded a $616 million decrease in the value of its Ethereum treasury during the year.
  • Sharplink booked a $140 million impairment charge related to tokens representing staked Ethereum.
  • The firm generated a $55 million net gain from conversions between Ethereum and staking tokens.
  • Quarterly staking revenue increased 50% to $15.3 million dollars from $10.3 million dollars.

Sharplink reported a $734 million full-year loss after a sharp decline in the Ethereum price reduced the value of its holdings. The Miami-based company disclosed that falling token prices drove most of the loss, even as staking revenue increased. Management said the firm maintained its strategy while expanding its Ethereum treasury position.

Sharplink Reports Full-Year Loss After Ethereum Price Drop

Sharplink recorded a $734 million net loss for the year, reversing a $10.1 million profit in 2024. The company attributed the loss to a $616 million decline in the value of its Ethereum holdings. It also booked a $140 million impairment charge tied to tokens representing staked Ethereum.

However, the firm posted a $55 million net gain from conversions between Ethereum and related staking tokens. The company confirmed it currently holds 867,000 Ethereum tokens. CoinGecko data showed Ethereum traded near $2,000 on Monday, valuing those holdings around $1.75 billion.

Sharplink’s holdings rank second among corporate Ethereum treasuries. BitMine Immersion Technologies holds about $9 billion in Ethereum under the oversight of Tom Lee. The company ended the year with $30.4 million in cash and stablecoins.

Shares of Sharplink traded at $7.41 on Monday, according to Yahoo Finance. Over the past six months, the stock declined 55%. During the same period, Ethereum fell 53%.

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Ethereum Staking Revenue Climbs as Treasury Strategy Expands

Sharplink increased its staking revenue by 50% quarter over quarter. The company generated $15.3 million from staking, compared with $10.3 million in the previous quarter. It has earned 14,500 Ethereum from staking activities, valued at about $9.4 million.

Sharplink participates in Ethereum’s transaction validation process through staking operations. The company also deploys capital into decentralized finance protocols to pursue higher yields. Management stated that boosting Ethereum per share remains a core objective.

Sharplink currently holds about 4 Ethereum per share. The company has raised approximately $3.2 billion to support its transition toward an Ethereum-focused treasury model. CEO Joseph Chalom described the year as transformative for the firm.

“2025 was a defining year for Sharplink,” Chalom said in a shareholder letter. He stated that short-term market volatility can affect results. He added, “Our strategy is consistent and designed to endure.”

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Joe Lubin, CEO of Consensys and Sharplink’s chairman, addressed institutional adoption trends. He said, “The institutional adoption supercycle accelerated in 2025.” Lubin stated that Sharplink aims to bridge traditional public markets with the Ethereum ecosystem.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin ETF Flows Rise As Gold Demand Cools: What’s Next for BTC?

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Cryptocurrencies, Israel, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Iran, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned net positive over the past 30 days, while gold ETF demand has started to slow down after nine straight months of inflows. The shift comes even as gold prices remain elevated and sentiment around Bitcoin continues to cool.

With these contrasting trends in ETF flows and the historical pattern of Bitcoin-to-gold performance cycles, analysts are now examining data that may signal a gradual shift in investor demand between the two assets. 

Are ETF flows beginning to rotate?

According to the Kobeissi Letter, the largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Wednesday, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years. The move followed a 4.4% decline in gold prices, the sharpest drop since the Jan. 30 sell-off.

Gold ETFs had attracted $18.7 billion in January and another $5.3 billion in February, marking the strongest two-month start to a year on record and extending a nine-month inflow streak. The latest outflow points to investors taking profits after gold’s massive rally in 2025.

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Bitcoin ETF flows moved in the opposite direction over the past month. The 30-day net flow shifted to a $273 million inflow on March 6 from a $1.9 billion outflow on Feb. 6

Cryptocurrencies, Israel, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Iran, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin and gold net ETF inflows over the past 30-days. Source: bold.report

The holdings data measured in native units show the divergence more clearly. Bitcoin ETF balances moved to a net increase of 4,021 BTC on March 6 from −42,275 BTC on Feb. 6. Gold ETF holdings declined from 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces during the same period.

The native units represent the actual underlying asset held by funds rather than the dollar value of those holdings. Tracking BTC or ounces isolates real accumulation or distribution without the distortion created by the price movements.

Head of growth at Horizon, Joe Consorti, summarized the current trend and said,  

“Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring. BTC is set to overtake gold’s % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.”

Related: Bitcoin dip may not be over as retail ramps up buying below $70K: Santiment

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Gold rallies precede Bitcoin recoveries

In a “2026 Look Ahead” report released at the end of December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold’s 65% return in 2025 was the fourth-largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. With respect to past rallies, Kuiper noted that gold is potentially near the late stages of its leadership cycle between the two assets. Kuiper said, 

“Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin takes the lead next.”

However, the rotation may take some time to unfold in the market. 

Cryptocurrencies, Israel, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Iran, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin-to-gold ratio analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, BTC needed roughly 147 days or 21 weeks to establish a sustained trend outperforming gold after Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. The period marked a consolidation phase before the ratio began trending higher.

The BTC-to-gold ratio currently trades near the same consolidation zone seen during the earlier rotation phases in 2022-2023.

Kuiper also added that both assets can benefit from the persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty as investors seek neutral stores of value outside traditional monetary systems.

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The ongoing US-Israel and Iran war has reinforced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, which previously supported gold rallies during periods of geopolitical stress.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to outperform gold over the next two to three years following gold’s recent rally in the past few months. 

Related: When buying Bitcoin, don’t expect profit for at least 3 years: Data