The mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham has been selected to contest the Makerfield by-election for Labour. His announcement that he was putting himself forward forced others seeking to oust Keir Starmer as prime minister to slow their pace. And it now seems unlikely that anyone will fire the starting gun on a leadership contest until Burnham has at least had a chance to join the pack.
In UK politics right now, the only certainty is that nothing is certain. But what we do know is, as Labour politicians go, Burnham is unusually popular. His selection was well received among his colleagues, and he is regularly the only UK politician of any political stripe with a net-positive favourability rating.
Importantly, Burnham also enjoys strong popularity ratings across his own patch of Greater Manchester. In the borough of Wigan – where Makerfield sits – he won 66.1% of the vote in the last mayoral election in 2024.
But over the next few weeks, Burnham will face important questions on how well that popularity stands up in the face of devastating local election results for Labour, in which the party failed to win a single seat in Wigan.
Policy wins – and missteps
The single biggest policy win Burnham can point to is his work on the buses. As mayor, Burnham championed the foundation of the Bee Network. The centrepiece of this integrated transport scheme was the renationalisation of bus routes across Greater Manchester, as well as support to cap fares at £2 at a time when nationally they were rising.
The vibrant yellow buses have become ubiquitous in Manchester, and a visible reminder of Burnham’s policy presence. It seems that this approach has worked, with people in the street citing Burnham’s support for the bus network as a clear plus point.
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Another winning card in Burnham’s hand is his building of “Brand Manchester”. He has cultivated a profile as a politician who cares deeply about his patch, and has consistently and publicly reinforced it. Burnham stood up to the Conservative government over what he felt was a weak and confusing support package during the COVID pandemic. This was what cemented his title as “king of the north”.
In broad terms, Burnham’s building of the brand coincides with Greater Manchester being at a particular zenith under his watch. It is the fastest-growing place in the UK, for example. But this growth is very heavily centred on Manchester city centre. Given concerns about who is actually benefiting from high-rise, high-value developments, this might not be something Burnham will shout too loudly about on the streets of Makerfield.
Of course, his nine years as mayor have included missteps. The development of the Greater Manchester spatial plan – a long-term blueprint for housing, jobs and infrastructure – has been a fraught process, with local authorities withdrawing their support over disputed housing allocations. The struggles of his administration on the thorny question of housing show that Burnham has no miraculous ability to reach consensus on the difficult issues.
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And in 2022, Burnham bowed to political pressure and retreated from plans to introduce a clean air zone in Manchester. This now appears to be a misstep – over a similar period as mayor of London, Sadiq Khan faced down similar pressures. But Khan can claim to have been vindicated, as London hit its air quality targets 184 years ahead of scientists’ predictions.
Ultimately, the English devolved mayors face a very different set of problems to national government. Equally, the powers afforded to them under devolution remain limited in scope, and reliant on whatever funding national government is prepared to release. Complex headaches like national debt and taxation, defence funding or managing geopolitics in an increasingly uncertain world are way beyond the remit of a metro mayor.
Having been outside of Westminster politics for nine years, Burnham is unattached to any preconceived agendas. This blank canvas is both an asset and a risk – although he has said that he would have no plans to change the government’s fiscal rules.
Makerfield is by no means a safe seat, and Burnham’s path is fraught with peril. However, it’s clear that he has been able to use his mayoralty to build a strong local and national profile, while also being sheltered from the crosswinds of national politics as a prince across the water.
Now, Burnham must see if he can realise his own promise or if he will find that he waited too long to make his move. One thing is for sure: his decision to leave Westminster and position himself as the outsider, and his track record as mayor of Greater Manchester, make him a formidable opponent in the by-election.




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