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Can the system deliver on the government’s proposed reforms?

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Can the system deliver on the government’s proposed reforms?

Following on from their recent blog looking at Labour’s proposals to reform the asylum appeals system, Ali Ahmadi, Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello explore whether it is possible to deliver these reforms.

In November 2025, the government published its policy paper on asylum reforms, ‘Restoring Order and Control’, describing it as the ‘largest overhaul of asylum policy in modern times’. At its core is a proposed move to temporary refugee status, initially granted for 30 months, reviewable every 2.5 years, and revocable if protection needs cease (for example the home state is now deemed safe). It also proposes that indefinite leave to remain (ILR) will not be granted until a refugee has at least 20 years of continuous residence (refugees must currently wait five years to apply). The government says this will make the system fairer, cheaper, and more sustainable. But will it? Can an already strained system handle the administrative burden, or will it exacerbate delays, costs, and uncertainty?

Under the existing rules, refugees are given five years limited leave to remain (LLR) during which time they can work and access public funds without having to prove an ongoing fear of persecution (the test for refugee status). At the five-year mark, they can apply for ILR (i.e. settlement) which is a permanent permission to live and work in the UK. Applying for ILR is largely procedural and getting ILR is, according to the Home Secretary, ‘near automatic’. It involves checks on continued residence and criminality but does not require a full re-assessment of protection needs. Recent data shows that around 94% of people granted refugee permission (refugee status, humanitarian protection, etc.) have obtained some form of ILR after 10 years.

The proposed shift to 30-month reviews fundamentally changes this model. Refugees would need to demonstrate, at regular intervals, that they are still in need of protection, while the Home Office would be required to re-evaluate conditions in countries of origin and reconsider individual circumstances repeatedly over many years. One conservative estimate suggests that around 1.9 million reviews would be needed in the first decade of the policy. Such a workload represents a substantial expansion in responsibilities for the Home Office, which would need far more staff, deeper country-expertise capacity, more interview and processing infrastructure, and stronger case-management systems to avoid a new cycle of delay and error.

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The system is already under strain. The National Audit Office (NAO) investigated a sample of 5,000 asylum claims lodged almost three years ago and found that 56% (2,812) still did not have a final outcome. Asylum backlogs stand at over 71,000 cases relating to almost 91,000 people.

The burden would fall not just on the Home Office. Legal aid providers, advice organisations, local authorities, refugee charities, and integration services would all face significantly increased demand. Many are already over-stretched. Some parts of the country, including the East of England, have only a handful of asylum legal aid providers, and waiting lists for free advice can be months long. Data from October 2023 shows that 63% of people in England and Wales do not have access to asylum and immigration legal aid providers in their local area. Regular reviews will compound these challenges. If the process becomes rushed or formulaic, individuals may seek judicial review on grounds of procedural fairness, adding to the case load of already burdened courts.

The quality of initial Home Office decisions is already in question: nearly half of all asylum appeals succeed, indicating a high rate of initial decision errors. The Home Office itself reported that only 52% of asylum decisions met its own quality standards in 2023/24. Therefore, without adequate safeguards, any ongoing routine review system may generate more litigation, not less, and increase, rather than reduce, uncertainty.

A system of routine reviews also carries a significant risk of administrative bottlenecks. Recent experience shows that when the Home Office accelerated the clearing of asylum backlogs, it created a knock-on delay in the appeal courts. For instance, the asylum appeals caseload stood at 51,000 cases in May 2025. This was an increase of 88% from March 2024, and largely due to the Home Office attempting to clear asylum backlogs. Conducting regular reviews for all refugees, alongside existing initial claims and appeals, could create a permanent state of triage unless the government commits to sustained, large-scale investment.

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For refugees, the lack of stable status would affect employment prospects, housing access, and long-term planning. Employers and landlords may be hesitant to engage with people whose status is periodically uncertain The UNHCR, in their observations on the UK’s proposals, notes that short-term stay arrangements subject to regular review and lengthy pathways to settlement and naturalisation create ‘prolonged uncertainty and despair, undermining integration and social cohesion’. It also notes that In 2023, the Australian government abolished its own temporary protection visas for refugees, because it made ‘no sense – economically or socially’ to keep people in limbo.

Further, if refugee protection is withdrawn after, say, 15 years, families who have built lives in the UK could be uprooted, raising human rights concerns. They might also face reintegration challenges and economic hardship in their ‘safe’ homelands.

Refugees will have the option to switch to a ‘work and study’ route that offers faster settlement. This favours the employable, leaving trauma-affected or unskilled refugees in perpetual precarity. It is also likely to lead to a two-tier system where only ‘deserving’ contributors gain security.

The new policy will also apply to post-2021 grants of refugee status. This retrospectivity raises rule-of law concerns. Individuals who planned lives based on a five-year promise of ILR now face protracted limbo, potentially breaching legitimate expectations under administrative law. It also risks weakening trust in decision-making, both among refugees and wider civic institutions.

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In conclusion, the proposals promise ‘order’ to the asylum system, but their practical deliverability remains uncertain. Reviewing every refugee’s status every 30 months (so eight times in 20 years) demands considerable resources, high-quality decision-making, and a robust network of support services to ensure fairness and legality. Without these, the system risks creating constant administrative churn, expanding backlogs, heavier burdens on public services, and deep insecurity for refugees. If the government goes ahead, it will need not only new legislation but also a credible operational plan, significant investment in the system and guarantees that the process will not compromise fairness or efficiency.

By Catherine Barnard, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe & Professor of EU Law and Employment Law, University of Cambridge, Fiona Costello, Assistant Professor, University of Birmingham and Ali Ahmadi, Research Associate, University of Cambridge and PhD student at Anglia Ruskin University.

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Choppier seas await Mamdani-backed candidates after Diana Moreno's landslide win

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Choppier seas await Mamdani-backed candidates after Diana Moreno's landslide win

NEW YORK — New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s pick to succeed him in the state Assembly cruised to an easy victory Tuesday night. But Diana Moreno’s win in that Queens special election is likely the last cakewalk we’ll see from a Mamdani-backed candidate in the near future.

The new mayor has endorsed Brad Lander in his quest to unseat Rep. Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th Congressional District and Assemblymember Claire Valdez for the NY-07 seat being vacated by Rep. Nydia Velázquez.

The pair of Democratic congressional primaries is expected to be far more competitive than Moreno’s race, raising a central question: How far can a Mamdani endorsement get you?

“We’re testing that out,” said Grace Mausser, co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America’s New York City chapter, which has endorsed both Moreno and Valdez, but not Lander. “He has a lot of hard resources that come with an endorsement: his impressive volunteer and donor lists, his strong reach on social media … There’s also the soft power that we’re testing out now, right? Who is the leader of left and progressive politics in New York right now?”

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Mamdani has so far been more involved in boosting Valdez than Lander.

The mayor appeared with Valdez — a Queens lawmaker, former United Auto Workers union organizer and the first elected official to stand with Mamdani in his campaign for mayor — at an event the day after she launched her bid. He also filmed a whimsical social media video set in a subway station to boost her fundraising.

Valdez is running against Antonio Reynoso, the Brooklyn borough president who Velázquez has endorsed as her preferred successor. Queens City Council Member Julie Won also recently entered the race in the progressive Brooklyn and Queens district.

The mayor has been largely hands-off in Lander’s campaign after endorsing the former city comptroller on the day of his launch for Congress. Lander, who cross-endorsed Mamdani in last year’s mayoral race, is running in Brooklyn and Manhattan against an incumbent with more than three times as much campaign cash on hand and the backing of Democratic House leadership, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

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A political adviser to Mamdani said his team is still assessing how much to get involved in the two congressional contests and cautioned against reading anything into the fact that the mayor has been more involved in Valdez’s race so far. The adviser said the Mamdani team is waiting to make major moves in NY-10 pending the outcome of a court case that could scramble the lines of the district in such a way that Goldman may run in the neighboring 11th District instead.

Regardless, the Mamdani adviser, who was granted anonymity to discuss internal strategy, said the mayor simply lending his name to Lander and Valdez “already carries a lot of weight that these campaigns can make the most of.”

“His direct involvement is always going to be second to governing,” said the aide. “Ninety-nine percent of his energy is going to be focused on running the city.”

The politics-versus-governance balance is part of Mamdani’s clash with Velázquez, the highly respected progressive who effectively warned him in a New York Times interview to stay in his lane.

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And the mayor does have a lot of work to do at the helm of the country’s largest city. June’s congressional primaries fall around the same time he and the City Council will be putting finishing touches on the city budget amid serious fiscal headwinds.

“I don’t know if that was the wisest thing for him to do because the job of being mayor is so big,” Democratic strategist Lupe Todd-Medina said, arguing Mamdani could end up in a situation where he’s not able to stump for Lander and Valdez as much as they want and need him to due to the sheer burden of governing New York City.

As June’s primaries still loom more than four months away, a Lander campaign official, granted anonymity to share sensitive considerations, said his team is also still waiting to see if a court decision could rip up the lines of NY-10.

But if the race ends up competitive, the Lander aide said his team is confident Mamdani will help fundraise and campaign for the former comptroller. The fact that Mamdani hasn’t done so yet, the aide said, is understandable since the mayor has been focused on governing in his first month in office.

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The two House primaries have different dynamics but they’ll determine whether Mamdani can replicate the magic that catapulted him from relative obscurity to the nation’s second toughest job.

“He has a lot at stake by pushing in some chips on two fronts, but I think he has more at stake in the 7th District,” said Michael Lange, an analyst who specializes in progressive politics. Valdez “is a really close ally who comes from his political movement and his political home.”

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LIVE: Commons Debates and Votes on Mandelson Files

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LIVE: Commons Debates and Votes on Mandelson Files

The latest: Labour is preparing an archaic last-minute manuscript amendment to its own amendment to cave in to some of its MPs’ demands with regard to how much information on Mandelson should be released. It’s bedlam behind the scenes…

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Why has Mandy been given such an easy ride in the media?

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Why has Mandy been given such an easy ride in the media?

UK prime minister Keir Starmer is far from the only one who stuck by Peter Mandelson long after the scandal surrounding him became impossible to ignore. In the past few weeks, despite new evidence of Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein being made public, the BBC continued to offer him a platform. And still today, even as the extent of Mandelson’s alleged corruption, betrayal of trust and potentially criminal activity is made clear, it seems that the commentariat is prepared to come to his defence in sympathetic tweets, interviews and newspaper columns.

Starmer appointed Mandelson British ambassador to the US in 2024, despite knowing that the architect of New Labour had twice been forced to resign in disgrace from cabinet posts and had maintained a close association with Epstein. It took until September last year for Starmer to finally give him the boot, after emails were published showing Mandelson urging Epstein to ‘fight for early release’ from jail, following his conviction for soliciting prostitution from a minor.

But while Starmer may have finally decided Mandelson was no longer fit for public life, the BBC took a different stance. Even after we had been treated to creepy photos of him in a bathrobe, casually chatting to his ‘best pal’ Epstein, Mandelson continued to be offered a cosy platform on the BBC. Just three weeks ago, on 11 January, he appeared on the BBC’s flagship Sunday morning politics show, where he was interviewed by presenter Laura Kuenssberg. Mandelson was given over half an hour to offer his take on the Trump administration, Greenland, Ukraine and the British government.

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It was only in the final 10 minutes of the interview that Mandelson was asked about his relationship with Epstein. Even then, Kuenssberg threw him softball questions. This gave him a chance to offer a perfunctory apology to ‘the victims’, before giving his excuses. He told a credulous Kuenssberg that because he is gay, ‘he was kept separate from the sexual side of Epstein’s life’. Worse still, Mandelson – always the spin doctor – was able to present himself as a victim. He just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time as a maelstrom of sex and scandal happened all around him.

This interview was no one-off. Just days later, Mandelson was at Broadcasting House again, this time being interviewed by Sarah Montague for Radio 4’s World at One. Once again, Mandelson got to present himself as an elder statesman turned commentator on global events, with the promise of moral rehabilitation via apologies and disclaimers. We have to ask why. Why did BBC producers and presenters think Mandelson worthy of this reprieve?

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But the media’s special treatment of Mandelson does not stop at the BBC. Even now, when we know that the real scandal in the relationship between Mandelson and Epstein was not sex but money, knowledge and power, he is being fawned over by some commentators. This week, the former Conservative MP turned Times columnist, Matthew Parris, has been gushing over Mandelson, describing him as ‘a man of wisdom and judgement in all but the conduct of his personal affairs’. ‘Within his party he has been a seminal influence for good’, Parris continues, ‘on the right side of every important argument in the politics of the left’.

Labour’s one-time spin doctor, Alastair Campbell, has been defending him as ‘talented’. ‘There’s no doubt. If you push to one side the reasons for his resignations, he was an effective cabinet minister,’ says Campbell on the latest edition of his Rest is Politics podcast. Despite Mandelson being implicated in the biggest scandal to hit the British government in decades – allegedly engaged in corruption that makes ‘partygate’ seem like the tea party it really was – neither Campbell nor Parris can summon up the words to wholeheartedly condemn him.

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There’s a reason for this treatment of Mandelson. His role in orchestrating New Labour’s success under Tony Blair means that, even today, he is given a free pass by establishment centrists. They either refuse to believe he has done anything terribly wrong, or think that the sleaze, alleged corruption and seeming acts of treachery were a price worth paying for getting their men into power.

The Mandelson affair raises questions not just about the prime minister’s judgement but about Britain’s entire political and media class. Far too many decades-old stalwarts of the Westminster-media pipeline are implicated in defending Mandelson long after his failings were manifest. Either they have grown so used to shouting ‘scandal’ over every cake crumb and undeclared payment, that they can no longer spot the real thing. Or they so firmly believe in the moral rightness of the centrist, technocratic political project that they see corruption as a price worth paying. In either case, it’s not just Mandelson, Starmer and the Labour government that Britain needs to be shot of, but their sympathisers and hangers-on in the media, too.

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Farage runs scared from Polanski debate

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Farage runs scared from Polanski debate

Reform leader Nigel Farage is running scared of Green leader Zack Polanski. And, in the run-up to the Gorton and Denton by-election, the clash between the two parties could well be a sign of things to come in the British political landscape.

Of course, Farage is refusing a challenge to a face-to-face debate with Polanski. After all, the far-right figurehead is far batter at manufacturing glib soundbites than he is at answering probing questions.

Politics UK posted on social media:

Farage is a glutton for punishment

In the clip, the interviewer reminded Farage that Polanski had expressed interest in a debate with him. However, that’s not the whole story.

Rather, Reform had previously challenged the Green leader to debate Zia Yusuf, the party’s head of policy. However, that’s not exactly an even matchup, is it?

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Yusuf is an unelected benchwarmer for the far-right party who’ll get ditched as soon as another ex-Tory shows up to replace him. Meanwhile, Polanski is a serving member of the London Assembly.

Likewise, Polanski is the leader of his party, rather than being ‘head of policy’ for a party that only has one real policy.

Then, of course, there’s the fact that Yusuf has already debated Polanski. The two both appeared on BBC’s Question Time in December of last year. As I recall, Yusuf got booed for being a slimy little tosser.

The fact Yusuf appears eager to repeat the experience is his own business. However, Polanski was eager to debate – but against a fellow party leader:

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‘Hugs, Zack’

Addressing Yusuf on social media, the Green leader wrote:

As I keep saying, I would be more than happy to debate, leader to leader, with Nigel Farage.

I’m starting to get the impression he might not be keen?

Maybe you could be kind enough to pass this message on?

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Polanski then signed off with a cheeky little “Hugs, Zack”.

However, Farage was far less willing to face Polanski in a head-to-head debate. When he was reminded of the Green leader’s challenge, Farage tried to brush it off, stating:

No, I generally find that if you pick a fight with a chimney sweep you get covered in soot, so I might just leave that alone for now.

And that’s the nearest to an insult I’ll ever come, alright?

But you know, he’s got a fan club – all the heroin smokers and everything think he’s absolutely marvelous.

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Apparently, calling a fellow schoolmate a “stupid Yid” doesn’t count as an insult. But anyway.

Running scared

Of course, it’s not surprising that Farage is running scared from a debate – he’s shite at them. In 2024, the Reform leader threw a tantrum and announced that he was boycotting the BBC after getting thrashed on Question Time himself.

Attendees grilled the party leader on immigration, health care, and his campaign activists’ racist and homophobic remarks. In return, Farage accused the BBC of rigging the audience.

As a side note, Farage seems to love boycotting the BBC – especially when people point out that he’s a racist sack of shit. Likewise, he’s also made a habit of accusing debate audiences of being left-wing plants whenever he starts losing.

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You see, like most members of the far right, Farage can’t hold up in a debate he can’t control. He pulls stunts and generates headlines, but his ideas fall down under basic scrutiny.

Given his obvious ambition to install himself as the UK’s prime minister, Farage had better get comfortable in the hot seat pretty sharpish. Otherwise, the public might start to notice that he’s a hollow, bigoted authoritarian with no real answers. And we’d hate to see that now, wouldn’t we?

Featured image via the Canary

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families speak out after acquittal

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families speak out after acquittal

In the aftermath of the acquittal of six of the Filton 24, pressure groups and the families of the vindicated prisoners have spoken about what the verdict could mean.

Pressure group CAGE responds

The refusal to convict any of the six defendants of any charges, including on the most serious of charges, is a powerful affirmation of jury equity and brings to a humiliating end one of the most politically charged trials of this year thus far.

The decision made by the jury critically undermines the rationale used to proscribe Palestine Action, and underscores the urgent need for that ban to be lifted. This case was the most significant test of the government’s claim that acts of conscience against arms companies constitute a threat to public safety.

An independent jury, guided by conscience and moral clarity, rejected that narrative despite extraordinary political pressure, ministerial intervention, and an environment shaped to shield Israeli state-aligned interests from scrutiny.

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The verdict echoes a wider public rejection of Zionist impunity, and growing support for direct action against companies complicit in genocide.

The trial has exposed how pre-trial detention and public spectacle were used to punish the defendants in advance and to deter others from challenging Israel’s largest arms manufacturer. The proscription of Palestine Action must now be lifted, and all those held as a result of this political process in prison should be released immediately.

The trial demonstrated that counter-terrorism and national security frameworks are being used in line with their established purpose: to silence dissent and shield state complicity in crimes from accountability. Context was excluded, and scrutiny of Elbit systems – Israel’s largest weapons manufacturer – supplying an ongoing genocide was treated as a matter to be suppressed rather than examined.

Naila Ahmed, Head of Campaigns at CAGE, said:

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This is a huge victory for the movement but nationally and abroad who campaigned on behalf of the defendants, and a powerful affirmation of jury independence and moral courage in the face of extraordinary political pressure.

Though they cannot get back the 17 months of their life taken from them unlawfully, they should all be compensated and the remaining 18 defendants of the Filton 24 should also be released on bail. This case was used to justify the ban against Palestine Action, a decision that should now be overturned.

CAGE calls for full compensation for those acquitted, a lifting of the ban on Palestine Action, an independent review into the political handling of the case, and the abolition of terror laws. The acquittal should prompt serious reflection on how easily due process can be eroded when political interests are at stake.

Filton24 Defence Committee

lisa minerva luxx, a representative of the Filton24 Defence Committee said:

Today’s significant victory delivered by the jury has vindicated the six defendants, who are the first six on trial from the Filton 24.

There are still 18 more defendants imprisoned across the UK in connection with this case. They are being held under joint enterprise which means they each have the same 3 charges whether they are accused of being present at the action or not. Now that the first 6 have been liberated of the most serious charge, Aggravated Burglary, and none were convicted of a single offence, it follows that the rest must immediately have this charge dropped against them, and be granted bail.

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This was a trial by media. Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer took evidence in this case out of context and broadcast it on televisions and tabloids across the country in order to justify proscribing Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation, despite forewarning that this will prejudice the trial.

By acquitting the defendants of aggravated burglary, the Jury aligned with the defence case that the items taken in to the warehouse were not weapons, but were tools used to dismantle and neutralise Israeli weapons.

Now that a court of law have vindicated the first six of the Filton 24 of the exaggerated charges against them [and found that the actions against Elbit Systems that night were reasonable], we should all expect Shabana Mahmood to do the reasonable thing herself and lift the ban on Palestine Action.

It’s time for the British state to accept that the movement for a liberated Palestine has been, and will continue to be, justified.

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Filton 24 relatives respond

Clare Rogers, mother of Zoe Rogers said:

Our loved one’s action against Elbit Systems and the state’s brutal response have exposed the true values of the government. The government is determined to do business with Israel and protect its weapons industry at any cost. Our loved ones dared to poke this beast – and no expense has been spared in policing prosecuting and imprisoning them without trial. Imagine if the government had put the same amount of money, resources and political will into preventing a genocide.

As the court heard, these are six young people of conscience and compassion. They took action against Israeli weapons manufacturer Elbit Systems in Filton, Bristol, because they could not sit by and do nothing while their country armed Israel’s genocide. They had tried everything else – marches, petitions, writing to MPs, encampments – and they could see that the government was not only breaking international law but was ignoring the will of its own people. They felt they had no option but to take action themselves, to try to save as many lives as they could.

Inside the Elbit facility, they found deadly quadcopter drones packed up ready for export, and were able to destroy some of them with crowbars and sledgehammers. These are the type of drones the Israeli military uses in Gaza to drop explosives, typically after a bomb has been dropped, to target survivors.

Emma Kamio, mother of Leona (Ellie) Kamio said:

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The police strategically released selected clips of footage during the trial, including the incident where Sam had struck a police officer. This was devoid of all context. The public were not told that Sam had just been blinded by PAVA spray and acted to protect my daughter while unable to see.

Ellie had been tasered twice at this point, the second time by accident, and the police officer who did so was dragging her up off the ground in one handcuff while standing on her abdomen and screaming at her to stay down. The whole time she had painful tazor barbs still in her arm and thigh as he dragged her around.

So she was screaming in pain, and was never resisting arrest. At this point, Samuel Corner had witnessed a security guard strike his co-defendant with a sledgehammer, and had witnessed excessive force repeatedly by the security. Whilst blinded by PAVA spray, and hearing screams from Ellie, screams which even the police described as “blood curdling”, he could only make out what he thought was a security guard, causing more pain, and did what he could to make it stop.

Striking the police officer was a terrible mistake that I’m sure Sam deeply regrets, but he simply reacted to protect Ellie when he heard the blood curdling scream that came from the second electrical current passing through her body, and all this after having witnessed the violence they experienced from the security guards that night.

Sukaina Rajwani, mother of Fatema Zainab Rajwani said:

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‘When they are told, “Do not spread corruption in the land”, they reply, “We are only peace-makers”. Indeed it is they who are the corruptors, but they fail to perceive it.’ (Holy Quran 2:11-12)

I am grateful for every heart that has turned towards this movement, for every hand that has raised in prayer for us, and for every word that has amplified our voice in seeking justice for the Filton 24. Despite the state’s best efforts to silence us and oppress our loved ones; we stand united in strength and power against a corrupt government and an unjust legal system.

Our fight does not end here. We will continue to expose Elbit Systems and British complicity in genocide.

Brogan Devlin, sister of Jordan Devlin said:

Despite having all the odds stacked against them, I can now say with the biggest smile that Jordan has been acquitted of aggravated burglary and violent disorder, and none of the defendants have been convicted of a single offence. The jury could see through the state lies, the political interference and the corruption.

Today we celebrate, tomorrow we rest, but this is not over – Angelo Volante is the name of the Elbit Systems security guard who assaulted my brother multiple times. My heart sank watching the footage of my brother unarmed, being attacked by Volante with a sledgehammer. Jordan was attempting to deescalate the situation when Angelo Volante kicked, choked, struck and even attempted to bit my brother.

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The jury was shown Jordan’s black eye, bruised body and sledgehammer marks. Why was this never released to the media? Throughout the trial we have been silenced by reporting restrictions in a bid to protect Elbit Systems and its violent employees.

Angelo Volante and Elbit Systems should be the ones on trial, not my brother. Thankfully ordinary citizens of the jury could see that and so we leave today with our heads held high and our loved ones by our side.

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Farage would tank the economy for racism

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Farage would tank the economy for racism

Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration policies are reprehensible racism. And, they’re completely unviable for the economy.

Dr Benjamin Caswell, a senior economist at National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), has said:

Net zero migration leaves the economy 3.6% smaller by 2040 and this reflects slower employment growth and a smaller workforce.

Farage would tank the economy

The vast majority of people coming to the UK are studying or working, or their dependants. In fact, people born outside the UK but living here are more likely to be employed than UK born residents. Towards the end of 2025, 74.7% of UK-born residents were employed, compared to 81.1% of EU born residents and 74.8% of non-EU and non-UK born residents.

Farage’s anti-immigration policies are not only unprincipled, but economically deficient. His party Reform aims to deport 600,000 people from the UK over the course of a parliament. And that’s before you get to added restrictions on people arriving. As NIESR research shows, this would contract the economy because we are relying on people from other countries to support our workforce.

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Caswell continued:

Imagine it as like freezing the population where it is, and then just having a continually ageing population. In the short to medium term, it’s not too detrimental, but over 20 years this gap [in spending and receipts] becomes continually larger and larger.

This is because the UK’s fertility rate is just 1.44. In order for the population to be replaced, it must be 2.1.

The cause of less children: inequality

In 1964, the UK’s fertility rate was 2.9. People could afford houses, had free university, and a much cheaper cost of living due to the nationalisation of essentials.  Now no one can afford a home. Many of us don’t have the financial security to have children. Student debt is hanging over us and the cost of living keeps getting worse.

Another issue is the ratio of older people to the workforce. In 1973, there were 21.8 retired people for every 100 people working. Now there are 30.4 retired people for every 100 workers.

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As economist Richard Murphy summarises:

We have a system which is, in other words, basically hostile to children; hostile to the actual fact of having children; hostile to the support of children; hostile to the parents who want to support children financially and who can’t because the system makes that nigh on impossible for them to do so. Hostile to the whole idea that we should be able to reproduce in the way that we need to. And now hostile to migrants who might be able to help solve this problem by becoming the teachers and everything else that we need to fill the gaps in the system, or to simply provide the cover to ensure that sufficient nursery care is, for example, available. Everything is hostile to having children.

Automation and technological advancement could solve this. But Farage’s ideological anti-immigrant policies would only make it worse.

Featured image via the Canary

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LIVE: PMQs

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LIVE: PMQs

LIVE: PMQs

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FURIOUS ROW: Adam Boulton vs. Julia Hartley-Brewer on Mandelson

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FURIOUS ROW: Adam Boulton vs. Julia Hartley-Brewer on Mandelson

Honey – get the popcorn…

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Human Rights Watch spike Israel report

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Human Rights Watch spike Israel report

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has spiked its own report describing Israel’s treatment of Palestinians as a “crime against humanity”. It’s Israel-Palestine director Omar Shakir resigned in protest at the decision.

The report, which had been legally approved and was ready for publication, addressed Israel’s denial of Palestinians’ legal ‘right of return’ to their homes and lands. Hundreds of thousands were violently expelled by Zionist militias and UK military in 1948. Many more have been dispossessed or killed since and Israel has forcibly expelled Palestinians from refugee camps.

The report analysed field work in refugee camps in Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. Despite passing successfully through all HRW’s checklist stages, new executive director Philippe Bolopion shelved it. It was due to go public last December, but Shakir was informed that it had been spiked a fortnight before.

Bolopion’s killing of the report came after a senior HRW official objected on the grounds that it would undermine Israel’s apartheid. Or, as the official put it, that it might:

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demographically extinguish the Jewishness of the Israeli state.

‘Lost faith’ in Human Rights Watch leadership

Shakir told Drop Site News that he had lost faith in HRW’s leadership after a decade of hard work:

I’ve given every bit of myself to the work for a decade. I’ve defended the work in very, very difficult circumstances. I have lost faith in our senior leadership’s fidelity to the core way that we do our work, to the integrity of our work, at least in the context of Israel, Palestine.

The refugees I interviewed deserve to know why their stories aren’t being told.

Shakir’s Palestinian researcher Milena Ansari also resigned, leaving HRW without an Israel-Palestine team.

In an attempt to justify its decision, HRW said in a statement that the report was “complex“:

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The report in question raised complex and consequential issues. In our review process, we concluded that aspects of the research and the factual basis for our legal conclusions needed to be strengthened to meet Human Rights Watch’s high standards. For that reason, the publication of the report was paused pending further analysis and research. This process is ongoing.

Bill Frelick, HRW’s Refugees and Migrant head, claimed he did not object to Palestinians’ legal right of return. He then questioned whether it really applied any more – in part, ironically, because some Palestinians might have obtained citizenship elsewhere:

To be clear, I am not objecting to our position that the Right of Return (RoR) is, indeed, a human right and that denying the right of return is a human rights violation. I do not think, however, that we have strong grounds for asserting that the denial of this right is a Crime Against Humanity (CAH)…

…I also question the strategic value of HRW advocating in 2025 for Palestinian refugees and their descendants to reclaim homes in present-day Israel that were lost in 1948…

… Does the suffering (and claims) of descendants of refugees who lost their homes in 1948 weaken over time? How does HRW assess whether descendants of refugees from 1948 have maintained ties that keep their claims viable? Does having citizenship in another country have impact on those claims? Are these claims unique to the descendants of Palestinian refugees or do they apply to the descendants of all refugees from all places throughout history?

At least ten percent of Israelis hold dual nationality – probably considerably more now. Iran’s effective retaliation to Israel’s aggression in June 2025 saw a flood of Israelis apply for passports in their original states. Frelick also questioned whether Israel was deliberately causing harm by preventing Palestinians returning to their homes:

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Per the requirement of “intentionally” causing great suffering, is Israel’s intent in denying return to cause great suffering or it is rather motivated by Israel’s national security concerns, demographic engineering, or other motivations, and, therefore, whatever suffering it causes would be incidental or consequential to these purposes but not their intent?

“Losing the organization”

According to Drop Site, HRW’s senior management refused attempts to find a compromise and told staff the report could only be published if its scope was limited to Palestinians displaced since 2023 and excluded refugees in other countries. Some 200 staff signed a letter of complaint; 300 participated in an online all-staff meeting and voiced their objections. All were ignored. Participants in the meeting said that human rights defenders were “losing” HRW and that the spiking was indefensible:

We are losing the organization we love and are so passionate about…

…no one will be able to defend the organization.

Quite.

While HRW is frequently critical of Israel, it has also been accused of going soft on its crimes when it matters. Academic and author Immanuel Ness wrote that HRW demonstrates:

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continuous and reliable support for positions advanced by the USA, Britain, and Western states.

Featured image via the Canary

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Politics

Mandelson peddles bizarre lie

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Mandelson peddles bizarre lie

As reported by the BBC, Peter Mandelson has made his most brazen claim yet:

Sorry, but we’re having a hard time believing that feeding British secrets to an international paedophile was in the “national interest”.

Mandelson and suspected criminal behaviour

As revealed by the latest Epstein Files, Mandelson was feeding the now-dead paedophile confidential government information during the New Labour years:

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In the clip at the top, the BBC’s political editor Chris Mason said:

It’s my understanding that he doesn’t believe he has acted in any way criminally; that he was acting in the national interest. It’s his view, I’m told, that in his dealings with Jeffrey Epstein – particularly during the financial crisis – dealing with Epstein, a man who had knowledge and expertise in banking, was worthwhile.

To give you an idea of how Epstein viewed the world, we know from another leak that he told Palantir boss Peter Thiel Brexit was “just the beginning”. When asked “of what”, Epstein answered:

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return to tribalism… counter to globalization. amazing new alliances. you and I both agreed zero interest rates were too high, and as I said in your office, finding things on their way to collapse… was much easier than finding the next bargain

Reading this, do you think it would be in your interests for this man to have access to confidential British secrets?

Because to us, it reads like the grandiose monologuing of a man who wants to burn the world down to sell off the ashes.

Speaking of Peter Thiel and Palantir, as we’ve reported, Starmer’s government has handed this company new contracts worth hundreds of millions.

And the dodginess doesn’t end there.

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An actual conspiracy

At this point, the connections are obvious. And it’s clear that none of this is being done in the name of Britain’s ‘national interests’.

Featured image via FCDO

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