Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) just lost his seat — a key victory for President Donald Trump’s revenge tour this cycle.

Rep. Julia Letlow, the Trump-backed candidate, and state Treasurer John Fleming advanced to a runoff in the Louisiana GOP Senate primary on Saturday, with Cassidy finishing in third place.

It’s a remarkable result: Cassidy is the first senator of either party to lose in a primary since 2012. The two-term senator and chair of the powerful Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee failed to even make the runoff, finishing with roughly a quarter of the vote.

Both Letlow and Fleming benefited from MAGA voters’ frustrations with Cassidy for his 2021 vote to convict Trump on impeachment charges related to the Jan. 6 insurrection, and for his skepticism of Trump’s decision to nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services secretary.

The president, who has been itching to oust Cassidy, finally got his wish Saturday. The result follows Trump’s successful attempts to oust several GOP state senators in Indiana last month over redistricting clashes.

Letlow, a three-term representative from north Louisiana, jumped into the race with Trump’s endorsement, a huge boost in the deep-red state. Gov. Jeff Landry also endorsed her and worked behind the scenes to help her campaign, and the Make America Healthy Again PAC committed $1 million to supporting her.

Fleming, a former member of Congress and White House aide under Trump, drew deep grassroots support during his campaign and was able to cut into Letlow’s polling lead in the final days of the race.

The runoff will extend an already expensive battle for the GOP nomination to late June. Early polls suggest a tight race between Letlow and Fleming, though Letlow had a clear advantage in the first round of voting.

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MONTGOMERY, Ala. — Thousands of people rallied Saturday in the cradle of the modern Civil Rights Movement to mobilize a new voting rights era as conservative states dismantle congressional districts that helped secure Black political representation.

U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey called Montgomery “sacred soil” in the fight for civil rights.

“if we in our generation do not now do our duty, we will lose the gains and the rights and the liberties that our ancestors afforded us,” Booker said.

The crowd was led in chants of “we won’t go back” and “we fight.”

“We are not going down without a fight. We are not going down to Jim Crow maps,” said Shalela Dowdy, a plaintiff in the Alabama redistricting case.

A crowd of thousands gathered in front of the city’s historic Alabama Capitol, the place where the Confederacy was formed in 1861 and where the Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. spoke in 1965 at the end of the Selma-to-Montgomery Voting Rights March. The stage, set in front of the Capitol, was flanked from behind by statues of Confederate President Jefferson Davis and civil rights icon Rosa Parks — dueling tributes erected nearly 90 years apart.

Speakers said the spot was once the temple of the confederacy and became holy ground of the civil rights movement.

Some in the crowd said the effort to redraw lines has echoes of the past.

“We lived through the ’60s. It takes you back. When you think that Alabama’s moving forward, it takes two steps back,” said Camellia A Hooks, 70, of Montgomery, Alabama.

The rally began in Selma, where a violent clash between law enforcement and voting rights activists in 1965 galvanized support for passage of the Voting Rights Act. It then moved to the state Capitol, where the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. gave his “How Long, Not Long” speech that same year.

A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling involving Louisiana hollowed out voting rights law that was already weakened by a separate decision in 2013 and then narrowed further over the years. That helped clear the way for stricter voter ID laws, registration restrictions, and limits on early voting and polling place changes, including in states that once needed federal preclearance before they could change voting laws because of their historical discrimination against Black voters.

Veterans of the Civil Rights Movement are alarmed by the speed of the rollbacks, noting that protections won through generations of sacrifice have been weakened in little more than a decade.

Kirk Carrington, 75, was a teen in 1965 when law enforcement officers attacked marchers in Selma on what became known as “Bloody Sunday.” A white man on a horse wielding a stick chased Carrington through the streets.

“It’s really just appalling to me and all the young people that marched during the ’60s, fought hard to get voting rights, equal rights and civil rights,” Carrington said. “It’s sad that it’s continuing after 60-plus-odd years that we are still fighting for the same thing we fought for back then.”

City will be affected by Supreme Court ruling

Montgomery is home to one of the congressional districts that is being altered in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling.

A federal court in 2023 redrew Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District after ruling that the state intentionally diluted the voting power of Black residents, who make up about 27% of its population. The court said there should be a district where Black people are a majority or near-majority and have an opportunity to elect their candidate of choice.

But the Supreme Court cleared the way for a different map that could let the GOP reclaim the seat. While the matter remains under litigation, the state plans special primaries Aug. 11 under the new map.

Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, who won election in the district in 2024, said the dispute is not about him but rather people’s opportunity to have representation.

“When Republicans are literally turning back the clock on what representation, what the faces of representation, look like, what the opportunities, legitimate opportunities for representation look like across this country, then I think it starts to resonate with people in a little bit of a different way,” Figures said.

Alabama House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter, a Republican, said the Louisiana ruling provided an opportunity to revisit a map that was forced on the state by the federal court.

“People tend to forget what happened. When this thing went to court, the Republican Party had that seat, congressional seat two,” Ledbetter said last week. “There’s been a push through the courts to try to overtake some of these red state seats, and that’s certainly what happened in that one.”

Evan Milligan, the lead plaintiff in the Alabama redistricting case, said there is grief over the implosion of the Voting Rights Act but it is crucial that people recommit to the fight.

“We have to accept that this is the new reality, whether we like it or not,” Milligan said. “We don’t have to accept that this will be the reality for the next 10 years or two years or forever.”

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Starmer mini-me Wes Streeting has turned on his former boss and confirmed his intention to stand to replace Keir Starmer in Downing Street. He has little prospect of winning — even Starmer would hammer him, according to the latest polling of Labour members. Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has declared his intention of standing in the Makerfield by-election in the hope of getting into the contest. But Burnham faces the major hurdle of having to win a seat dominated by Reform in last week’s local elections.

But Streeting has — apparently unwittingly — opened a potential door for a Burnham win. Presumably in his desperation to improve his dire standing with party members, Streeting has told Europhile Labour right-wingers of the ‘Progress’ faction that he wants to take the UK back into the EU if he wins.

This will infuriate Makerfield Reform voters, who despise Starmer and want him gone but will not want to risk re-returning to the EU. But if they vote in a Reform MP, he (it will almost certainly be a man) will not be in a position to prevent Streeting carrying out his plan if Streeting manages to get into Downing Street. Burnham could. He is miles ahead of both Streeting and Starmer with Labour members — if he can get into Parliament to stand in the Labour leadership race.

Burnham — Two big gambles

Burnham has previously also mentioned rejoining the EU. But if Burnham he is serious about winning Makerfield, he needs to announce immediately that he will not attempt to rejoin the EU, at least in this parliament. Reform voters might then lend him their vote, especially if Burnham campaigns hard on Farage’s plans to replace the NHS with an insurance system. There are indications he or at least his advisers have realised this.

The big gamble then for Burnham would be that opposing re-entering the EU (the EU would be mad to accept us back anyway, mind) might put Labour members off him. But he is currently beating Starmer by 61%–28%, while Starmer is beating Streeting by 53%–23%.

He’s already taking a big risk by standing in a seat in which he’s a distant second favourite, when defeat will sooner or later cost him the mayoralty. Will he roll the dice to improve the odds in the first one?

Featured image via Gary Oakley/Getty Images

By Skwawkbox

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As Skwawkbox reported last night, the Israeli occupation bombed the Moataz Tower, one of its few surviving tall buildings in Gaza. But more details have emerged of the cynical, murderous attack — which targeted a wedding.

Israel followed its usual pattern of claiming it had aimed to kill a “senior Hamas” figure. The UK ‘mainstream’ media, if they bother reporting the atrocity at all, will parrot this line as though it’s not a war crime to slaughter hundreds of civilians to kill one man.

Gaza — life and limb

But they will not report the true aftermath of the crime, which robbed the wedding party and their guests of life and limb. Survivors fled the wrecked building, recounting the horrors of the attack as they came:

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Palestinian journalist Wadih Abu Al-Saud reported from the scene as rescuers spoke of severed limbs and heads, and of women and children trapped as the building burned:

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A post shared by Translating Palestine فلسطين (@translating_falasteen)

Israel perpetrated the attack on Nakba Day, when Palestinians remember the violent, colonial seizure of their lands and homes. The terror state remains able to function with impunity, in large part, because of the collaboration of western media and politicians.

Featured image via Omar Ashtawy/Getty Images

By Skwawkbox

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The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has offered a huge bounty for a former US military intelligence operative who defected to Iran. Monica Elfriede Witt is wanted on espionage charges. Witt used to work for air force intelligence and had high-level clearance.

The FBI announced on 15 May that it was offering:

a $200,000 reward for information leading to the apprehension and prosecution of Monica Witt, a former U.S. service member and counterintelligence agent who was indicted by a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia in February 2019 on charges of espionage, including transmitting national defense information to the government of Iran.

The agency described Witt as:

a former active-duty U.S. Air Force intelligence specialist and special agent for the Air Force Office of Special Investigations, served in the military between 1997 and 2008 before working as a U.S. government contractor until 2010.

Adding that her military service and later contracting work:

provided her access to SECRET and TOP SECRET information relating to foreign intelligence and counterintelligence, including the true names of U.S. Intelligence Community undercover personnel.

The FBI said Witt defected in 2013, giving secrets to Iran.

FBI has not forgotten, not forgiven

Daniel Wierzbicki of the FBI’s Counterintelligence and Cyber Division, went full divorced dad fire and brimstone:

Monica Witt allegedly betrayed her oath to the Constitution more than a decade ago by defecting to Iran and providing the Iranian regime National Defense Information and likely continues to support their nefarious activities.

Adding:

The FBI has not forgotten and believes that during this critical moment in Iran’s history, there is someone who knows something about her whereabouts. The FBI wants to hear from you so you can help us apprehend Witt and bring her to justice.

In 2019, the BBC reported that Witt took a Persian language course while serving and later worked for a private defence firm for years after leaving the military. Her contracted role involved consulting on:

“Iranian subject matter” and providing “language and cultural specialisation”.

In a later role at another military firm she:

“supervised, controlled, and co-ordinated the execution of highly sensitive counterintelligence operations against foreign intelligence services worldwide”.

The US and Israel attacked Iran first on 28 February without provocation. Iran was offering unprecedented concessions in negotiations at the time. The Pentagon has since stated there was no imminent threat from Iran. And the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA, has said there is no evidence Iran was developing a nuclear weapon.

The Iranian government remains intact despite months of intensive US and Israeli attacks. The US-Israeli attack’s main achievement seems to be a global energy crisis after Iran predictably closed the straits of Hormuz, a vital oil channel.

It’s not clear why the bounty on Witt has suddenly been raised — she has been on the run since 2013, after all — though it may well have some connection to US president Donald Trump’s badly-backfiring war…

Featured image via theTimes

By Joe Glenton

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A US lawmaker has said the US has lost 39 aircraft in the failing Iran war. The number is considerably higher than previously suspected. The details emerged in a Senate hearing in the US.

The Express Tribune reported an exchange between Democratic Congressman Ed Case and Pentagon financial officer Jay Hurst “about the extent of damage suffered during the conflict”:

“We’ve lost about 39 aircraft, according to a report in The War Zone, and that’s an old one that’s almost one month old,” Case said, asking Hurst whether the Pentagon had calculated “a retention cost on all those aircraft.”

Hurst replied:

There are costs there, sir, but I want to get back to you in writing and what they specifically are, because, as you can imagine, repair of aircraft is something that’s very hard to calculate.

Adding:

We want to do a full diagnosis of the aircraft before we estimate that cost.

Sounds like the Pentagon was playing for time. But Hurst did not deny the 39 figure outright.

The outlet added that according to Case:

39 aircraft were destroyed and another 10 sustained varying levels of damage.

The report also claimed that an F-35A Lightning II fighter jet was hit inside Iranian airspace and that a Boeing E-3 Sentry aircraft was destroyed.

The claims could not be independently verified, and Pentagon officials did not publicly confirm the alleged losses during the hearing.

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The US has been extremely guarded about losses in the failing war — including casualties. The Intercept’s Nick Turse reported on 1 April:

Almost 750 U.S. troops have been wounded or killed in the Middle East since October 2023, an analysis by The Intercept has found. But the Pentagon won’t acknowledge it.

Adding:

U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, appears to be engaged in what a defense official called a “casualty cover-up,” offering The Intercept low-ball and outdated figures and failing to provide clarifications on military deaths and injuries.

US-Israel attacked Iran first on 28 February without provocation. Iran was offering unprecedented concessions in negotiations at the time. The Pentagon has since stated there was no imminent threat from Iran. And the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA, has said there is no evidence Iran was developing a nuclear weapon.

The US has achieved none of its original war aims. Iran predictably closed the Straits of Hormuz, a vital oil channel, once attacked — creating a global energy crisis. Far from being defeated, Iran has said the war will continue until:

the enemy’s inevitable and permanent humiliation, disgrace, regret, and surrender.

Trump came to power on an anti-war ‘America First’ ticket. He now faces worldwide humiliation. The US president is currently scrambling for an off-ramp from the war he started.

Featured image via NBC

By Joe Glenton

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As Bill Cassidy fights for his political life, he’s refusing to acknowledge the political gravity surrounding him.

Five years after he cast a vote to convict President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial over Trump’s election denialism and the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Cassidy is facing a challenge from Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and GOP State Treasurer John Fleming in a crucial Louisiana primary today that marks the next stop on Trump’s revenge tour.

In an interview with POLITICO on Saturday, Cassidy sounded disconnected from the reality he faces, frequently referring only to Letlow as “my opponent” while ignoring Fleming, and complaining about the state’s shift to a closed party primary back in 2024.

If Trump’s push to oust Cassidy succeeds, it could unleash another rogue in the Senate with a vendetta against Trump and nothing left to lose.

But Cassidy claims he’s not thinking about that. Asked whether he would be a thorn in Trump’s side in his remaining months in office should he go down and join other YOLO Republicans, Cassidy sounded defiant.

“I’m going to win today,” Cassidy said. “I may go into a runoff. But I’m always going to vote for the good of my country and my people.”

If no candidate clears 50 percent in today’s vote, the top two candidates will advance to a June 27 runoff. Recent polls show a tight three-way campaign. Most polling puts Cassidy in third place, behind Letlow and Fleming, another MAGA candidate.

Cassidy spoke with POLITICO by phone before he made his Election Day rounds after attending a wedding Friday evening. He talked of his plans to improve affordability and criticized Letlow for not voting for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

“I don’t quite know why, but it takes courage, and so you got to know what’s right, and then you got to have the courage to do what’s right, and that’s what I have,” Cassidy said. “I’ve proven it. That’s what this race is about.”

But in the final hours before results roll in, the senator who drew Trump’s ire over his impeachment vote was the one crying foul over voting issues.

Cassidy echoed his concerns about Louisiana’s move to a closed primary system, telling Playbook he had just gotten off the phone with a “No Party” voter who tried to cast a ballot for him but said he could not. Cassidy said he’s communicating with Louisiana Secretary of State Nancy Landy, who he said is investigating. A spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Today, I’m trying to make sure that people are able to exercise their right to vote … in a system which, in effect, has been designed to prevent people from being able to cast their vote for me,” Cassidy said.

He brushed off MAHA’s role in the primary. “People in our state want someone who has delivered,” he said. “If you’re talking about ‘Making America Healthy Again,’ my gosh, I’ve worked to make my state healthy again. And so if people are concerned about our state being healthier, then I’m your candidate.”

And he expressed no regrets over his impeachment decision.

“That is not something I think about.” Cassidy said. “If my opponent is focused on that, she’s thinking about five years ago. I’m thinking about five years from now. If she wants to be wedded to the past, be wedded in the past, but by golly, you’re not working for the future. I’m working for the future, that’s where I’m focused.”

Despite Cassidy’s resoluteness, GOP sources in Louisiana see an increasingly bleak outlook for Cassidy — no matter where he finishes at the end of the day.

“There is almost a 0.0 percent chance that Bill Cassidy is coming back to the Senate,” said an unaligned GOP strategist with experience running races in Louisiana and granted anonymity to assess the state of play.

“He’s run a lot of ads,” the person said, “and the problem with his ads is he’s in them.”

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French player Sacha Boey captured attention during Galatasaray’s Turkish League title celebrations when he appeared wrapped in the Palestinian flag amid the festivities held on Friday evening, a scene that garnered widespread interaction on social media platforms.

Fans on social media platforms circulated videos and photos of the 24-year-old French player holding the Palestinian flag on the pitch during the title celebrations, a moment that highlighted the recurring presence of Palestinian symbolism in the Turkish club’s celebrations over recent years.

Boey is considered one of Galatasaray’s most prominent players in recent seasons, operating as a right-back. He previously had a stint with German club Bayern Munich before returning to the Turkish league.

Sacha Boey joins the tradition

This was not the first time the Palestinian flag appeared in Galatasaray’s celebrations. Moroccan star Hakim Ziyech previously wore the Palestinian flag during the team’s Turkish League title celebrations in May 2024, coinciding with the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, which also sparked wide interaction across social media at the time.

Ziyech then posted a video clip on his verified Instagram account showing him wrapping the Palestinian flag around his body as he descended onto the pitch to celebrate the title win with his teammates.

Boey’s appearance with the Palestinian flag comes just a few days after the controversy sparked by young Barcelona star Lamine Yamal, after he raised the Palestinian flag during his team’s Spanish League title celebrations. This incident drew a widespread wave of Israeli anger, reaching the point of him being attacked by Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, who incited against the player and called on his club to “discipline” him, according to Israeli media reports.

In contrast, Yamal received political and popular support in Spain, where Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez defended him, stressing that expressing solidarity with Palestine aligns with the official position of the Spanish government supporting the recognition of a Palestinian state and a ceasefire in Gaza.

Galatasaray club and its fans are known for their repeated pro-Palestine stance. The team’s stands have witnessed the raising of solidarity banners with Palestinians on several occasions, condemning the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.

During matches in February 2025, the Turkish club’s fans raised banners reading: “The world will remain captive if Palestine is not free,” alongside other slogans demanding an end to the “genocide” in Gaza, scenes that received widespread coverage across media and social platforms, as reported by Anadolu Agency.

Featured image via Haberler

By Alaa Shamali

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Manchester United and France football legend Eric Cantona has once again stepped into the political and humanitarian spotlight after appearing in a shirt supporting the Palestinian prisoner Marwan Barghouti. The move garnered widespread attention across social media platforms and international media.

Cantona posted a picture of himself wearing a shirt emblazoned with the slogan “Freedom for Marwan” as part of an international solidarity campaign calling for the release of Barghouti, who has spent more than two decades in Israeli prisons. Messages circulated by the campaign emphasized that the shirt is “not just sports attire,” but carries political and humanitarian symbolism associated with the values of freedom, resilience, and justice.

According to Anadolu Agency, the shirt’s design was inspired by the Palestinian national team’s jersey from 2002, the year Barghouti was arrested during the Second Palestinian Intifada. It also bears the number “24”, referring to the years he has spent inside Israeli detention facilities.

Cantona on Marwan Barghouti

In a statement accompanying the photos, the campaign added that Barghouti “will once again be unable to watch the World Cup with his children this year,” considering the message to transcend sports and shed light on the issue of Palestinian prisoners. The campaign also affirmed that football “has always been a global space for expressing freedom, dignity, and the rejection of injustice.”

Cantona is known for his political and humanitarian stance supporting human rights issues. He has previously expressed solidarity with Palestinians multiple times and criticized the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip in recent months.

The French star’s photos provoked a massive reaction among football fans and social media activists. Many considered that the appearance of a global sports personality of Cantona’s stature grants the campaign additional media momentum, especially given the recent expansion of global sports and artistic solidarity with the Palestinian cause.

Eric Cantona is considered one of Manchester United’s most prominent legends, having led the team to several domestic titles during the nineties, subsequently becoming a historical icon for the club and its fans worldwide.

Cantona’s action follows similar stances taken by a number of athletes and artists globally who have expressed their support for Palestine and their rejection of the war on Gaza — a scene that has been notably recurring in international stadiums and sporting events.

Featured image via the Canary

By Alaa Shamali

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The Republican Party is starting to splinter over support for Israel — and President Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters are largely aligned with the embattled U.S. ally.

New results from The POLITICO Poll find that self-identified “MAGA” Trump voters are more supportive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and its relationship with the U.S. than those who don’t identify as MAGA but still voted for the president.

Nearly half of MAGA Trump voters say they back Israel and approve of the actions of its current government, while just 29 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters say the same, according to the survey. A plurality of MAGA voters (41 percent) say Israel is justified in its military campaign in Gaza — compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters. And 24 percent of MAGA voters say the country was initially justified but has gone too far, compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters.

MAGA voters are moderately supportive of Israel, and the survey suggests they remain more willing to stick with the longtime U.S. ally even as divides inside the party deepen. The emerging fractures carry significant implications for the future of the U.S.-Israel alliance and GOP efforts to keep together the coalition that powered Trump back to the White House in an unfavorable midterm election.

Politics around the Middle East have rapidly changed in recent years. Support for Israel has long divided the Democratic Party, with some Democrats blaming the Biden administration’s approach to Gaza for costing them the White House in 2024. A 35 percent plurality of Americans who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris say Israel was initially justified in its actions in Gaza but has gone too far, while 27 percent say Israel’s military campaign in Gaza was never justified and 28 percent don’t know.

Only 10 percent of Harris voters believe that Israel is still justified in its conduct of the Gaza war. That figure underscores the near-total loss of support among Democrats for a military campaign that drew significant support from the Biden administration.

Republicans were powerfully unified in support of Israel in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. But amid the war with Iran and a growing unease about Trump’s foreign interventions, the country’s standing appears shaky among the non-MAGA wing of the GOP and among young conservatives. Non-MAGA voters are 10 points more likely than MAGA Trump voters to believe the Israeli government has too much influence over U.S. foreign policy, the survey conducted by Public First found.

Some of those cracks have spilled into public view, with high-profile Republicans like Tucker Carlson, former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Steve Bannon all criticizing America’s close relationship with Israel, especially as the war in Iran escalates. Most Republican members of Congress, as well as conservative influencers like Laura Loomer and Ben Shapiro, have remained pro-Israel voices defending the president’s actions.

“There is a sentiment right now within the Republican Party of, ‘America First,’ let’s get out of all of the conflicts in the world, let’s not be committed to those conflicts,” said Amnon Cavari, an associate professor at Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel.

The poll reflects that dynamic, with a notable share of Trump 2024 voters — 29 percent — saying that the president has spent too much time focusing on international affairs instead of domestic issues.

MAGA Trump voters are more tolerant of Trump’s global agenda, with just 19 percent complaining that he has spent too much time on international affairs. That figure doubles to 40 percent among non-MAGA Trump voters.

The Israel issue is a particularly urgent flash point within the GOP coalition, but POLITICO’s polling shows a consistent gap between Trump voters who identify as “MAGA” and those who do not. That divide has shown up on views of Trump’s deportation campaign,the war in Iran and even his handling of economic concerns.

Generational divides on Israel

The POLITICO Poll finds sharp generational divides among Republicans on issues related to Israel, with the youngest Trump voters more likely than the oldest to express uneasiness over America’s relationship with Israel.

Thirty-two percent of Trump voters below 35 say the U.S. is too closely aligned with Israel’s government, while 11 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

When asked whether the U.S. should distance itself from Israel — even when the two nations face common threats — or work closely with the longtime ally to fend against common threats, the generational divide holds. Nearly half of Trump voters ages 18 to 34 say there should be distance between the two countries, while just 13 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

James Fishback, a far-right 31-year-old Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida who is highly critical of Israel and has gained traction among younger online “America First” voices, said the GOP is poised for a “massive reckoning” on the Middle Eastern nation, “the first of which we’re going to see this November, and in the primaries right before that.”

“And then we’re set up for the ultimate proxy war on this Israel question in the [2028] Republican primary, and then in the general,” he said. “I just don’t see a staunchly pro-Israel candidate becoming the Republican nominee.”

The generational divide in the GOP in many ways mirrors breaks within the Democratic Party, whose younger voters also hold stronger views against Israel’s influence and actions, driven in large part by the rising death toll and ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, polling shows.

“The fact that [Israel has] lost support among young Democrats is not surprising,” said Cavari. “The fact that they are losing rapidly among young Republicans is especially alarming, and the trend is very clear.”

The AIPAC factor

The involvement of pro-Israel groups in competitive primaries has become a flashpoint on both sides of the aisle.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, an influential advocacy group that aims to elect candidatesin both parties who strongly support Israel, has faced backlash for its involvement in Democratic primaries in New Jersey and Illinois. AIPAC is also involved in Republican primaries, and some GOP voters are uneasy about its role.

But AIPAC is also playing on the Republican side — and the GOP is beginning to split over it. The survey finds that MAGA Trump voters are 14 points more supportive of AIPAC’s political interventions than their counterparts in the coalition, while non-MAGA Trump voters are 11 points more likely to oppose AIPAC’s efforts.

Deryn Sousa, a spokesperson for AIPAC, said in a statement that “millions of Americans are members of AIPAC because they want to strengthen an alliance that advances America’s interests and values, and we will stay focused on building the largest possible bipartisan pro-Israel coalition in Congress.”

AIPAC has bundled for several GOP incumbents, including Sens. John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who are both at risk of losing their seats. The group, along with the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund, has also poured millions into attempting to oust GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, in part for opposing aid to Israel and attempting to rein in Trump’s war powers in Iran and elsewhere.

Even as AIPAC has become a dividing line among highly engaged voters in both parties, a 30 percent plurality of Americans have never heard of the organization or don’t know enough to share an opinion.

“Polls will go up and down,” said Patrick Dorton, the spokesperson for AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project. “Obviously we’re in a post-Gaza, Iran war environment.”

AIPAC’s electoral arm, Dorton said, will continue to be “substantive in making the case for the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

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