Enterprise AI programs rarely fail because of bad ideas. More often, they get stuck in ungoverned pilot mode and never reach production. At a recent VentureBeat event, technology leaders from MassMutual and Mass General Brigham explained how they avoided that trap — and what the results look like when discipline replaces sprawl.
At MassMutual, the results are concrete: 30% developer productivity gains, IT help desk resolution times reduced from 11 minutes to one, and customer service calls cut from 15 minutes to just one or two.
“We’re always starting with why do we care about this problem?” Sears Merritt, MassMutual’s head of enterprise technology and experience, said at the event. “If we solve the problem, how are we gonna know we solved it? And, how much value is associated with doing that?”
MassMutual, a 175-year-old company serving millions of policy owners and customers, has pushed AI into production across the business — customer support, IT, customer acquisition, underwriting, servicing, claims, and other areas.
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Merritt said his team follows the scientific method, beginning with a hypothesis and testing whether it has an outcome that will tangibly drive the business forward. Some ideas are great, but they may be “intractable in the business” due to factors like lack of data or access, or regulatory constraint.
“We won’t go any further with an idea until we get crystal clear on how we’re going to measure, and how we’re going to define success.”
Ultimately, it’s up to different departments and leaders to define what quality means: Choose a metric and define the minimum level of quality before a tool is placed into the hands of teams and partners.
That starting point creates a quick feedback loop. “The things that we find slow us down is where there isn’t shared clarity on what outcome we’re trying to achieve,” which can lead to confusion and constant re-adjusting, said Merritt. “We don’t go to production until there is a business partner that says, ‘Yes, that works.’”
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His team is strategic about evaluating emerging tools, and “extremely rigorous” when testing and measuring what “good” means. For instance, they perform trust scoring to lower hallucination rates, establish thresholds and evaluation criteria, and monitor for feature and output drift.
Merritt also operates with a no-commitment policy — meaning the company doesn’t lock itself into using a particular model. It has what he calls an “incredibly heterogeneous” technology environment combining best of breed models alongside mainframes running on COBOL. That flexibility isn’t accidental. His team built common service layers, microservices and APIs that sit between the AI layer and everything underneath — so when a better model comes along, swapping it in doesn’t mean starting over.
Because, Merritt explained, “the best of breed today might be the worst of breed tomorrow, and we don’t want to set ourselves up to fall behind.”
Credit: Brian Malloy Photo
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Weeding instead of letting a thousand flowers bloom
Mass General Brigham (MGB), for its part, took more of a spray and pray approach — at first.
Around 15,000 researchers in the not-for-profit health system have been using AI, ML, and deep learning for the last 10 to 15 years, CTO Nallan “Sri” Sriraman said at the same VB event.
But last year, he made a bold choice: His team shut down a sprawl of non-governed AI pilots. Initially, “we did follow the thousand flowers bloom [methodology], but we didn’t have a thousand flowers, we had probably a few tens of flowers trying to bloom,” he said.
Like Merritt’s team at MassMutual, MGB pivoted to a more holistic view, examining why they were developing certain tools for specific departments of workflows. They questioned what capabilities they wanted and needed and what investment those required.
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Sriraman’s team also spoke with their primary platform providers — Epic, Workday, ServiceNow, Microsoft — about their roadmaps. This was a “pivotal moment,” he noted, as they realized they were building in-house tools that vendors were already providing (or were planning to roll out).
As Sriraman put it: “Why are we building it ourselves? We are already on the platform. It is going to be in the workflow. Leverage it.”
That said, the marketplace is still nascent, which can make for difficult decisions. “The analogy I will give is when you ask six blind men to touch an elephant and say, what does this elephant look like?” Sriraman said. “You’re gonna get six different answers.”
There’s nothing wrong with that, he noted; it’s just that everybody is discovering and experimenting as the landscape keeps shifting.
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Instead of a wild West environment, Sriraman’s team distributes Microsoft Copilot to users across the business, and uses a “small landing zone” where they can safely test more sophisticated products and control token use.
They also began “consciously embedding AI champions“ across business groups. “This is kind of a reverse of letting a thousand flowers bloom, carefully planting and nourishing,” Sriraman said.
Observability is another big consideration; he describes real-time dashboards that manage model drift and safety and allow IT teams to govern AI “a little more pragmatically.” Health monitoring is critical with AI systems, he noted, and his team has established principles and policies around AI use, not to mention least access privileges.
In clinical settings, the guardrails are absolute: AI systems never issue the final decision. “There’s always going to be a doctor or a physician assistant in the loop to close the decision,” Sriraman said. He cited radiology report generation as one area where AI is used heavily, but where a radiologist always signs off.
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Sriraman was clear: “Thou shall not do this: Don’t show PHI [protected health information] in Perplexity. As simple as that, right?”
And, importantly, there must be safety mechanisms in place. “We need a big red button, kill it,” Sriraman emphasized. “We don’t put anything in the operational setting without that.”
Ultimately, while agentic AI is a transformative technology, the enterprise approach to it doesn’t have to be dramatically different. “There is nothing new about this,” Sriraman said. “You can replace the word BPM [business process management] from the ’90s and 2000s with AI. The same concepts apply.”
Across the region, facilities tied to water and power—including desalination plants—have been damaged or exposed to risk as Iranian strikes extend beyond traditional targets.
A single strike, however, is unlikely to shut off the gulf’s water supply. The system is designed to absorb isolated disruption, but sustained or multisite attacks would begin to strain supply far more quickly.
“In the Gulf, desalination is built with enough breathing room that losing one plant doesn’t immediately show up at the tap,” says Rabee Rustum, professor of water and environmental engineering at Heriot-Watt University Dubai.
In Kuwait, Iranian drone attacks have damaged two power and desalination facilities and ignited fires at two oil sites. Other sites, including Fujairah in the UAE, have been identified as potentially exposed.
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“Striking desalination plants would be a strategic move, but it would also come very close to, and in some cases cross, a red line,” says Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London.
Water infrastructure, Krieg explains, occupies a distinct category. “Water infrastructure is not just another utility. In places that depend on desalination, it underpins civilian survival, public health, hospital function, sanitation, and basic state legitimacy.”
Krieg notes that international humanitarian law gives special protection to civilian objects and to objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population. “Which is precisely why attacks on water systems carry such grave legal and moral weight,” Krieg adds.
The incidents highlight a structural reality: Desalination is central to water supply in the gulf, and disruption carries immediate implications for daily life.
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How the System Absorbs Disruption
At first glance, desalination appears vulnerable. Shut down a plant, and supply is reduced. In practice, the system is designed with layers of redundancy.
Plants operate across multiple locations, allowing output to be redistributed if one facility slows down. Water is also stored at different points across the network, including central reservoirs and building-level tanks, creating a buffer that delays disruption.
According to a statement to WIRED Middle East by Veolia, an environmental services provider whose technologies account for nearly 19 percent of desalination capacity in the region, “the region’s water supply is diversified thanks to a network of numerous facilities distributed along the coastline.”
The company adds that distribution systems are interconnected, allowing plants to “support and substitute for one another when necessary,” helping maintain continuity of service.
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In the UAE, storage capacity typically covers around one week, while in other parts of the region it may be limited to two to three days, Veolia says.
In practice, this means the system can absorb disruption for a limited period. Once reserves are depleted, water supply depends on whether plants can continue producing enough water to meet demand.
The System That Produces Water
Unlike most regions, the Gulf does not rely on rivers or rainfall. It depends on a network of desalination plants along its coastline that convert seawater into potable water on a continuous basis.
Seawater is drawn into treatment facilities, filtered and processed either through reverse osmosis—forcing it through membranes to remove salt and impurities—or through thermal methods that evaporate and condense water. The resulting supply is distributed through pipelines, stored in reservoirs, and delivered to homes, hospitals, and industry.
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This is not a flexible system. It is designed to operate continuously, producing water at a scale that sustains cities, industrial activity, and essential services. Gulf states produce roughly 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water, operating more than 400 plants across the region.
Dependence varies by country but is high everywhere. In the UAE, desalination accounts for 41 to 42 percent of total water supply, while in Kuwait, it provides around 90 percent of drinking water, and in Saudi Arabia, approximately 70 percent.
When Disruption Becomes Visible
For residents, disruption would not be felt immediately—water would continue to flow.
Rustum explains that buildings are supported by internal storage and pumping systems, meaning early changes in supply may not be apparent. In many cases, water pressure remains stable, even as the wider system adjusts.
Dr Michelle Ng turned a moment of loss into a new beginning for herself
On Jun 28, 2025, Dr Michelle Ng was 39 weeks pregnant, nine days away from giving birth.
That’s when she received an email from her previous employer, saying that they would pause her senior doctor incentives and deduct from her maternity pay to cover the commissions for doctors hired in her place.
She read the email twice. Then she went on to draft her resignation letter with conviction.
What happened next would transform Dr Michelle’s and her family’s lives. Within a few months, she would open ARTÉ by Dr M, an aesthetic clinic that had built a waiting list stretching to Feb 2026 before it even opened its doors in Dec 2025.
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But that Jun morning, none of that was visible. All she could see was the uncertainty of her future with her four-year-old daughter and her soon-to-be-born son, a career ending where motherhood began.
This is Dr Michelle’s story—how she turned a moment of loss, on the brink of motherhood, into the start of something entirely new. Vulcan Post spoke with her and her husband, Vincent, to understand the challenges, the risks, and the decisions that led to ARTÉ by Dr M.
Facing “career suicide” for taking her maternity leave
An NUS Medicine graduate with dermatology rotations at public hospitals, Dr Michelle built a strong foundation in skin and facial anatomy. She is renowned for her ambidextrous injection skills, which are widely regarded as highly advanced.
Over more than a decade in the field, she moved between doctor-led and investor-owned clinics, generating S$200,000–S$300,000 in monthly revenue from her work alone, according to her husband, Vincent.
She joined her ex-employer in 2023. But when her second pregnancy came in early 2025, her employer’s support waned. At 12 weeks, tests confirmed a high-risk pregnancy. Despite mounting fatigue and medical complications, she continued showing up for her patients, even as her body signalled the need to slow down.
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(Left): Dr Michelle Ng at the hospital when she was pregnant with her son last year; (Right): Dr Michelle Ng with her children./ Image Credit: ARTÉ by Dr. M
With lessons learned from her first pregnancy—when she had little time to bond with her first child after opting for half-day arrangements despite being fully entitled to maternity leave—Dr Michelle decided to take her full entitlement for her second child.
She took 16 weeks of government-paid maternity leave plus six weeks of shared parental leave (three weeks from her husband), totalling 22 weeks (about five months) to recover and spend time with her family.
However, upon applying for leave, she was told by her ex-employer that going on maternity leave for that long is “career suicide.” Dr Michelle was disheartened and lost all hope in her career, but she knew that she had to prove otherwise.
The final straw came nine days before her son’s delivery in Jul 2025. Her ex-employer sent an email informing her of the temporary pause of her senior doctor incentives during her maternity period, and any commissions paid to covering doctors in her absence will be deducted from her maternity salary.
The next day, between prenatal appointments and birth preparations, she drafted her response. Dr Michelle informed them that the deduction was not allowed under the relevant laws, tendered her resignation, and began her four-month notice period—sacrificing her remaining shared parental leave in the process.
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That same day, her son Louis was born, and the idea of ARTÉ then slowly took shape.
Navigating motherhood & ambition
ARTÉ by Dr. M opened its doors in the middle of Dec 2025, but the journey tested Dr Michelle in every way.
In the lead-up, she navigated one of the most demanding periods of her life: caring for a newborn, managing postpartum recovery, and simultaneously building a clinic from the ground up.
She secured a unit at Millenia Walk, negotiated with her landlord, Pontiac Land Group, coordinated with medical suppliers, and oversaw a complex renovation—all within the span of just a few months.
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Shortly after giving birth, Dr Michelle went on to build ARTÉ by Dr. M, overseeing the interior design and daily operations./ Image Credit: ARTÉ by Dr. M
Then, just as things began to take shape, another challenge surfaced.
Her long-term domestic helper left abruptly, leaving Dr Michelle scrambling to arrange childcare while keeping the clinic’s construction on track. On top of that, as with any major project, renovation delays arose, pushing ARTÉ’s opening back by a month from the original Nov 2025 target.
Watching her hold everything together through that chaos, her husband left his 13-year career in commodities to support her.
“I couldn’t bear to see her carry everything on her own,” he said. “The way she showed up for her patients during her maternity period, and for what she believes in. It made it clear to me that this was more than just a career. It was her calling, and she convinced me to give up my career to help her give her best for her patients.”
ARTÉ by Dr. M’s storefront and vast corridors./ Image Credit: ARTÉ by Dr. M
The couple’s capital investment exceeded S$1 million for equipment and renovation alone in the 1,600 sqft unit, with monthly operating costs averaging between S$60,000 and S$100,000.
“Many people commented that I was crazy to start a business as soon as I gave birth, but it was this belief that I told myself that I wanted ARTÉ to be a beacon of hope for all women that anything is possible even in the most demanding seasons of life,” Dr Ng recalled.
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She runs the clinic supported by a team of four
ARTÉ by Dr. M specialises in non-surgical anti-ageing treatments with a focus on injectables (including botox, dermal fillers, and collagen stimulators), alongside lasers and Ultherapy Prime machines for skin lifting, tightening and rejuvenation.
Dr Michelle administering Ultherapy Prime machines and injectables to stimulate collagen./ Image Credit: ARTÉ by Dr. M
Dr Michelle is the clinic’s sole doctor, supported by a team of four.
Treatments led by her typically begin from S$800 up to S$2,000 per session, while non-doctor therapist treatments start from S$200. For patients looking for a more personalised approach, the clinic also offers customised programs tailored to individual needs and budgets.
Dr Michelle said transparency is a core principle of the clinic. “There are no hard-selling and no hidden fees,” she explained. Treatments are usually structured in three sessions, followed by a detailed review of progress.
The clinic’s reputation was evident even before its doors opened in Dec 2025: bookings were filled up to Feb 2026, reflecting the trust Dr Michelle had built with her patients over the years.
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Beyond patient experience, Dr Michelle shared that ARTÉ represents a deliberate choice about how care should be practised. “The field has become increasingly commoditised, with price wars and the race to the bottom,” she said. More investors are setting up clinics with commercial priorities at the forefront, while medical risks become secondary to sales performance and treatment pricing.
“For us, every treatment, even for trials, is done with full intent, and we give our 100%,” she added.
“There are sacrifices that come with building something you believe in”
Today, Dr Michelle is not only an aesthetic doctor but also a speaker and trainer for leading global brands such as Merz, where she mentors and trains younger doctors.
She also has plans to grow ARTÉ meaningfully, guided by the same patient-centric principles on which it was built.
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Dr Michelle and her family./ Image Credit: ARTÉ by Dr. M
Yet behind all this growth lies a reality she carries quietly. She sees patients six days a week, often skipping meals and returning home after her children have already fallen asleep.
She shared, “There are sacrifices that come with building something you believe in. I don’t always get the time I wish I had at home, but when I am present, I make sure I am fully there for my children.”
For Dr Michelle, ARTÉ’s growth isn’t just about scale or revenue—it’s about building something meaningful, even if it demands more from her personally.
“Every time I look at my clinic,” she added, “I see blood, sweat and tears. But I also see that despite everything, we chose to keep going and to build something we could stand behind.” She also hopes her story shows other women that maternity is not a setback to overcome, but a source of strength to draw from.
Since her ex-employer challenged her maternity entitlements, Dr Michelle has engaged lawyers and attended multiple legal meetings.
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As a mother and doctor in an industry built on empowering women, I couldn’t stay silent and accept what felt wrong. That day, I chose to stand for what I believe in.
Dr Michelle Ng
The matter remains unresolved to this day, yet she continues to focus on her patients, her clinic, and inspiring other women to find strength in their own journeys.
Stormgate, a free-to-play, StarCraft-style RTS developed by Frost Giant Studios, relies on a third-party “game server orchestration partner” to run its online modes. Frost Giant told players on Discord that the provider had been acquired by an AI company, forcing a planned outage that will take Stormgate’s multiplayer modes offline… Read Entire Article Source link
A range of seemingly random apps in the App Store have been updated by Apple itself, though nothing has been shared about why, nor have there been changes in the codebases themselves.
VLC was updated by Apple to improve functionality
Apple has been known to push updates to apps in its App Store, though they’re usually to ensure legacy apps still work. On Monday, some users have noted both new and old apps have received an update direct from Apple. According to a report from MacRumors based on a Reddit post, the updates don’t appear to change anything about the app itself. The changes could be related to something on Apple’s backend, or a specific API, but it is unclear. Continue Reading on AppleInsider | Discuss on our Forums
OpenAI is proposing (PDF) sweeping policy changes to help manage the societal disruption caused by advanced AI, including taxes on automated labor, a public wealth fund, and experiments with a four-day workweek. The company said the policy document offered a series of “initial ideas” to address the risk of “jobs and entire industries being disrupted” by the adoption of AI tools. Business Insider reports: Among the core policy suggestions is a public wealth fund, which would see lawmakers and AI companies work together to invest in long-term assets linked to the AI boom, with returns distributed directly to citizens. Another is that the government should encourage and incentivize employers to experiment with four-day workweeks with no loss in pay and offer “benefits bonuses” tied to productivity gains from new AI tools.
The policy document also suggests lawmakers modernize the tax system and shift the tax base to corporate income and capital gains, rather than relying on labor income and payroll taxes that could be hit by a wave of AI-powered job losses. It also recommends taxes related to automated labor. OpenAI also called for the accelerated expansion of the US’s electricity grid, which is already feeling the strain from a wave of data center construction and energy demand for training ever more powerful AI models.
Robbie Cape is a tech veteran and serial entrepreneur. (File Photo via 98point6)
Robbie Cape, the Seattle tech entrepreneur who has dabbled in healthcare and fried chicken in recent years, has another new venture.
In a post on LinkedIn on Monday, Cape said his nine-month search for a new job led somewhere he didn’t expect — and he’s starting a company.
“We’re in stealth for now — the idea and the story behind it will come,” Cape wrote. “But right now, we’re imagining. We’re shaping the vision, building the team, defining the culture. The slate is clean. The sky is open. And we are having an absolute blast.”
Cape said the new venture incorporated in March, and a few weeks ago he welcomed CTO T Van Doren and chief product officer Matt Witcher as co-founders. Cape said Van Doren was employee No. 1 and Witcher was employee No. 8 at 98point6, the telehealth startup that Cape co-founded and ran as CEO for six years.
Cape previously spent 11 years at Microsoft and was the co-founder and CEO of Cozi, an app for managing family events, activities and schedules. After being forced out of 98point6, Cape helped launch the sustainable chicken restaurant Mt. Joy in 2022. The small chain has locations in Seattle’s South Lake Union and Capitol Hill neighborhoods.
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Cape left Mt. Joy in May 2025, according to his LinkedIn. And in his post on Monday, he said he’d been searching for a job until last month. The process — in which he was looking for any size company, stage or title — took longer than he imagined it would as he connected with 200 people across nearly 2,000 interactions.
“It was hard in ways I didn’t expect,” Cape wrote. “But it gave me something I didn’t expect either — real empathy for a process most people dread but everyone eventually has to go through.”
GeekWire reached out to Cape for details on his new company, and we’ll update when we hear back.
The Apple vs. Epic Games saga over App Store fees continues, as Apple hopes the Supreme Court will rule in its favor the second time around and possibly stop previous punishments from being enforced.
Apple’s control of the App Store on iPhone continues to be challenged in court
The Supreme Court will soon have to weigh in on Apple’s fees for app-related external purchases, after the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied a request for a rehearing in March 2026. Apple has been fighting a December 2025 decision that sought to lower its 27% fee on purchases made outside the App Store. Continue Reading on AppleInsider | Discuss on our Forums
The Federal Communications Commission continued its crackdown on Chinese tech on Friday, issuing a new proposal that would extend a ban on companies to products previously authorized.
In 2021, companies such as Huawei, Hikvision, Dahua, Hytera and ZTE were added to the FCC’s Covered List, a record of companies and products that the FCC believes pose a national security risk to the US, under the Secure Networks Act. The Chinese companies produce mobile phones, security cameras and other tech products.
But the 2021 ban applied only to new models that the FCC hadn’t authorized, and companies were free to keep selling models that had already received the FCC’s stamp of approval. If approved, the new proposal would ban these companies entirely, including those previously approved products.
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“Older models of covered equipment pose an unacceptable risk today when imported or marketed in the United States, not only when such equipment is new to the market,” an FCC report from October said.
The proposal will be open for comment until May 6, after which the commission will vote on whether to adopt the rules. The ban won’t affect devices already owned by Americans.
Millions of consumers and businesses rely on Wi-Fi routers, telecommunications equipment and security cameras every day, making these devices critical links in both home and office networks. The Federal Communications Commission shocked the broadband industry on March 23 by effectively banning the sale of future foreign-made Wi-Fi routers (including some of the biggest router brands).
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In recent years, Chinese telecommunications companies have faced restrictions on operating in the US. In 2020, The Wall Street Journal cited US officials who reportedly said that Chinese companies, including Huawei, used backdoor access intended for law enforcement to track sensitive information.
But this ban could be implemented quickly. The FCC proposes that “all parties [will have to] cease all importation and marketing activities within 30 days of the effective date of the prohibition.”
This proposition doesn’t reflect a final legal ruling on telecommunications imports, but it does reflect how the Trump administration has been increasingly pressuring Chinese tech companies in recent months.
The foreign-made router ban was only the latest in a string of decisions that have placed restrictions on Chinese tech companies operating in the US.
Quantum resource estimates suggest encryption barriers may fall faster than expected
Reduced qubit requirements bring theoretical attacks closer to practical reality
Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations face pressure from advancing quantum algorithm efficiency
Google researchers have revised expectations around the computational requirements needed to break widely used cryptographic systems protecting cryptocurrencies.
The company’s latest whitepaper claims a future quantum machine could solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem using significantly fewer resources than previously assumed.
Earlier estimates suggested millions of qubits would be required to break encryption schemes such as secp256k1, which underpins Bitcoin security.
Article continues below
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New quantum findings reduce crypto security timelines
The new findings indicate fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could be sufficient, representing a substantial reduction in expected hardware requirements.
The research outlines two quantum circuit designs capable of executing Shor’s algorithm, requiring under 1,500 logical qubits and tens of millions of quantum gate operations.
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Under standard assumptions about hardware performance, these computations could be completed within minutes on a sufficiently advanced system.
This marks a continuation of incremental improvements in quantum algorithm efficiency, rather than a sudden breakthrough in hardware capabilities.
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Google states that the intent behind publishing these findings is not to create alarm but to encourage preparation within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
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“We want to raise awareness on this issue and are providing the cryptocurrency community with recommendations to improve security and stability before this is possible, including transitioning blockchains to post-quantum cryptography,” Google executives, Ryan Babbush and Hartmut Neven said.
The company adopted a controlled disclosure strategy, sharing verifiable findings through a zero-knowledge proof mechanism without exposing sensitive implementation details that could enable misuse.
This approach reflects established practices in cybersecurity, where vulnerabilities are disclosed in a coordinated manner to allow time for mitigation.
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However, disclosure in blockchain systems introduces additional complexity, as confidence in the network plays a direct role in asset value.
Researchers note that exaggerated or poorly substantiated claims could contribute to instability through fear and uncertainty, even in the absence of immediate technical risk.
Most blockchain systems currently rely on elliptic curve cryptography, which remains secure against classical computing attacks but is vulnerable in a quantum scenario.
Google points to post-quantum cryptography as a viable pathway, emphasizing that alternative algorithms based on more complex mathematical structures are already under development.
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These methods aim to resist quantum attacks while maintaining compatibility with existing systems.
Despite the availability of potential solutions, implementation across decentralized networks is expected to be gradual.
The researchers stress the importance of early planning, including reducing exposure of vulnerable wallet addresses and considering policies for inactive or abandoned digital assets.
Kalshi can’t be stopped in New Jersey. A 3rd US Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled on Monday that New Jersey has no authority to regulate Kalshi’s prediction market allowing people to bet on the outcome of sports events. That power rests with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the panel ruled 2-1.
The CFTC is headed by President Donald Trump appointee Michael Selig, who vocally and actively supports prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, calling them “exciting products.” The Trump family agrees: Donald Trump Jr. is a paid adviser to Kalshi and an unpaid adviser to Polymarket, and Truth Social, which is run by the Trump Media and Technology Group, is set to start a prediction market of its own.
Online prediction markets are an emerging phenomenon that allow users to bet on the outcome of basically anything, from local athletic competitions to lethal military invasions. Though they’re new, these marketplaces have already shown evidence of insider trading on an extreme scale, with suspicious bets and big payouts tied to the US and Israel’s military strikes in Iran, and also the US’ brief invasion in Venezuela. According to blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis, fewer than 0.04 percent of Polymarket accounts captured more than 70 percent of profits, totaling $3.7 billion.
Multiple state gaming regulators have filed legal challenges against Kalshi and Polymarket in recent months, and just last week the CFTC sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois over their attempts to regulate prediction markets. While each state has its own angle of attack, from election issues to underage betting, they’re all broadly claiming that prediction markets are just illegal gambling businesses. Today’s ruling marks the first federal-level decision in one of these cases and it’s in favor of the prediction markets.
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New Jersey sent Kalshi a cease and desist letter in 2025, claiming the service violated the state’s ban on collegiate sports betting. Kalshi escalated the situation and sued New Jersey, arguing that its sports contracts are actually swaps, a type of financial investment that’s (conveniently) regulated by the CFTC. A lower-court judge previously sided with Kalshi, prompting New Jersey to appeal. Two of the three judges in that appeal ruled that Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts were indeed swaps. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called Monday’s ruling “a big win for the industry.”
US Circuit Judge Jane Richards Roth dissented, writing that Kalshi’s “offerings were virtually indistinguishable from the betting products available on online sportsbooks, such as DraftKings and FanDuel.”
New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport has the option to ask the full 3rd Circuit to rehear the case, and the issue is also pending in several other courts.
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