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CLARITY Act Faces Critical April Deadline as Senate Committee Prepares to Vote

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Points

  • Senator Bill Hagerty anticipates the CLARITY Act will advance to the Senate Banking Committee during April
  • The legislation aims to transfer primary crypto regulation from the SEC to the CFTC
  • Disagreements over stablecoin yield provisions have caused delays, but recent discussions suggest a breakthrough
  • Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott hasn’t announced a markup session date
  • Polymarket traders estimate a 63% probability of Trump enacting the legislation in 2025

During remarks at the Digital Assets and Emerging Tech Policy Summit held at Vanderbilt University on Monday, Senator Bill Hagerty projected that the CLARITY Act would proceed through the Senate Banking Committee over the coming weeks, establishing an April timeframe for the landmark crypto regulation bill.

Hagerty expressed optimism that the legislation could successfully navigate the banking committee before April concludes, provided that lingering concerns are addressed satisfactorily.

“There’s still a lot more work to do,” Hagerty acknowledged, though he emphasized that none of the remaining challenges were “insurmountable.”

The CLARITY Act secured House passage in July under its current title. Senate progress has been hindered by disputes surrounding stablecoin interest payments, ethical considerations, and resistance from certain cryptocurrency industry factions.

The proposed legislation would reallocate crypto market oversight responsibilities primarily from the Securities and Exchange Commission to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Given both regulatory bodies’ involvement, the bill requires endorsement from the Senate Agriculture Committee as well as the Senate Banking Committee.

The Agriculture Committee moved its iteration of the bill forward in January. The Banking Committee must still conduct a markup session before the legislation can advance to a full Senate floor vote.

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Progress Emerges on Stablecoin Yield Standoff

The debate over stablecoin yield mechanisms has represented the most significant obstacle. Cryptocurrency firms, notably Coinbase, had raised objections to previous language that imposed sweeping restrictions on stablecoin reward programs.

Sources from both the crypto and banking sectors informed Crypto in America last week that representatives from both industries examined revised stablecoin yield provisions and express cautious optimism about reaching consensus. The specific wording of the updated language remains confidential.

Paul Grewal, Chief Legal Officer at Coinbase, expressed confidence that an agreement would materialize. He indicated to reporters last week that legislators were “close to a deal” on outstanding matters.

Committee Markup Timing Remains Uncertain

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott hasn’t established a timeline for the markup session. The committee has also remained silent on whether it intends to publish a revised draft for public review.

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Pro-cryptocurrency Senator Cynthia Lummis has suggested a markup could occur this month. However, pro-XRP attorney and Senate candidate John Deaton cautioned that delays extending into summer would likely redirect Congressional attention toward midterm election campaigns, potentially dooming the bill.

Hagerty recognized the political timeline pressure. “If we get this done in April, we can clearly get this taken care of before the midterms,” he stated.

Cryptocurrency-focused political action committees are mobilizing for 2026 campaigns. Fairshake disclosed a $193 million fundraising total designated for the November midterm elections. The Fellowship PAC, which claims to have secured more than $100 million from crypto-supportive donors, announced Tether executive Jesse Spiro as its new chairman this week.

Polymarket trading currently indicates 63% probability of Trump signing the CLARITY Act into law during 2025, although those odds temporarily declined to 50% in recent trading.

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Analysts eye potential breakdown as BTC price repeats familiar pattern: Crypto Markets Today

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Analysts eye potential breakdown as BTC price repeats familiar pattern: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market is trading sluggishly within the range it has held for two months, with bitcoin changing hands at $69,000 and ether (ETH) at $2,130.

The range-bound pricing dates back to Feb. 6, with several peaks between $72,000 and $75,000 and troughs between $62,000 and $65,000.

A similar two-month pattern occurred between November and January before a price breakdown, leading analysts to suggest a similar scenario may play out this time around.

Much still depends on the conflict in Iran, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of “obliteration” falling on deaf ears thus far. Brent crude oil remains at $107 per barrel, which will have a knock-on effect on inflation over the course of the year unless it declines.

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Derivatives positioning

  • The market continues to consolidate as bitcoin open interest (OI) stabilizes at $16.7 billion, little changed from last week and indicating that speculative activity remains flat.
  • Funding rates have moved into a neutral 0%-6% range, following a period of negative funding that likely fueled the initial relief rally through short covering.
  • With the three-month annualized basis also little changed over the week, institutional conviction remains cautious, suggesting that while the immediate downside pressure has eased, the big players are not yet positioning for a major breakout.
  • Options sentiment is stabilizing as call dominance reaches 47% and one-week skew drops to 16% from 19% last week. However, the implied volatility term structure’s front-end backwardation confirms that traders are still prioritizing immediate downside protection over long-term growth expectations.
  • CoinGlass data shows $163 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 60-40 split between longs and shorts. BTC (64 million), ETH ($35 million) and others ($16 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
  • The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $69,500 as a core level to monitor in case of a price rise.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market has been surprisingly buoyant recently, despite broader market apathy. Since midnight UTC privacy tokens zcash (ZEC) and dash (DASH) rose by 6.7% and 3.1%, respectively, and there were also notable gains for FET, PUMP and RENDER.
  • The bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index gained 0.3% on Tuesday, while being outpaced by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS), a sign of the relative strength of altcoins compared with crypto majors.
  • The recent bounce in altcoins has not been uniform, however. AI tokens, privacy tokens and the likes of HYPE and ALGO have performed well, while other market segments have tumbled. Over the past 90 days ethena (ENA) has lost 66% of its value, while TIA, LDO, SUI and ARB have all fallen by more than 50%.
  • That’s a divergence from previous cycles, when altcoins moved in unison. It now appears the market is maturing to a point where assets may be moving based on real-world impact, as opposed to hype and overzealous roadmaps.

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Bitcoin up, software stocks down since the war began

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Bitcoin up, software stocks down since the war began

Since the outbreak of the war with Iran on Feb. 28, bitcoin has started to diverge from software equities, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), serving as a useful proxy for the sector.

Bitcoin has been one of the strongest-performing assets during this period, rising more than 5% and trading back above $69,000, including a gain of more than 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

IGV, in contrast, has fallen more than 2% since the conflict began. That gap suggests investors are starting to treat bitcoin and software stocks differently, at least in the near term.

Until recently, the two had moved closely together. Over the past three months, bitcoin fell 26% and the ETF lost 23%. Year to date, both are lower by about 21%. Over five years, bitcoin has gained 18% compared with 10% for IGV. In other words, both have moved in the same direction, but the cryptocurrency has done so with much greater volatility.

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That is also clear in their declines. Bitcoin had fallen roughly 50% from its October all-time high, while IGV, which peaked slightly earlier, fell about 35% from its own top.

The correlation data tells the same story. From early February, bitcoin and IGV were almost perfectly correlated, close to 1.0, meaning they were moving nearly in lockstep. After the war began, that relationship broke down sharply, with the correlation dropping to 0.13, a level that signals near decoupling, before rebounding to around 0.7. The figure can range between -1.0 and +1.0, with 0 indicating no correlation at all.

Why have software stocks been hit harder?

IGV is heavily weighted toward large software and services companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL) and Salesforce (CRM). Investors are increasingly worried that artificial intelligence will compress margins and valuation multiples across software, especially in Software as a Service (SaaS), as competition rises and barriers to entry fall. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading more like a macro asset, benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty.

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Bitcoin Trader Eyes Bear Market Bottom as Stochastic RSI Mimics 2023

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Bitcoin Trader Eyes Bear Market Bottom as Stochastic RSI Mimics 2023

Bitcoin (BTC) is copying the end of its 2022 bear market “nearly perfectly,” according to a new BTC price analysis.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin stochastic RSI values are “nearly perfectly” repeating the end of its last bear market, new analysis claims.

  • Both recent local bottoms and the current rebound echo conditions from three years ago.

  • Standard RSI is already on the radar for a potential BTC price bottom signal.

Bitcoin stochastic RSI echoes 2023 rebound

In an X post on Monday, crypto trader Quantum Ascend revealed copycat moves playing out on Bitcoin’s stochastic relative strength index (RSI) indicator.

Stochastic RSI, also known as “stoch RSI,” is a derivative of traditional RSI — a classic leading indicator that helps traders identify overbought and oversold conditions, as well as BTC price trend changes.

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Like its standard counterpart, stoch RSI flashes “oversold” price signals when it drops below 30/100 on its scale, with “overbought” entering when its value is above 70/100.

Stoch RSI moves between those two zones much more quickly, but Quantum Ascend sees a key long-term bull signal now locking in.

“RSI at the EXACT SAME point on the Daily as it was in 2022,” he told X followers.

BTC price and stochastic RSI comparison. Source: Quantum Ascend/X

An accompanying comparative chart shows stoch RSI making a double bottom along with price before both surged higher in early 2023. At the time, BTC/USD had recently set a multiyear low of $15,600 — a level that ended up forming the bear-market bottom.

Now, Quantum Ascend says, the repeat performance is “playing out nearly perfectly.”

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“Breaking above the EXACT SAME level (blue line). At the EXACT SAME time,” he added.

The chart reveals that stoch RSI is now attempting to clear its 50/100 midpoint after two local lows in late January and late March, respectively.

BTC price counts down to bear flag decision

RSI signals have already been firing in 2026 despite lackluster BTC price strength.

Related: First real bull signal since 2025? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

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As Cointelegraph reported, eyes are on weekly standard RSI to print a bullish divergence with price, again mimicking early 2023.

At the time, weekly RSI set its lowest level on record — one so far not matched in 2026, per data from TradingView.

BTC/USD one-week chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin still faces bearish hurdles to recovery, with traders concerned about a bear-flag breakdown repeating on the daily chart.

“In few days we will understand if the pattern is repeating or not,” analyst Aksel Kibar wrote on X over the weekend.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X