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Mystery over Lee Andrews’ disappearance continues as mum makes desperate plea to ‘kidnappers’

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Daily Record

Lee Andrews’ mum Trisha has issued a heartbreaking plea to the ‘kidnapper’ for his return

Lee Andrews’ mum has made a heartbreaking appeal to the “kidnappers” she believes may be holding her son captive. The Dubai-based businessman married former glamour model Katie Price in January, just a fortnight after the pair first met, and the couple have rarely been out of the spotlight since.

Late last week, Katie and Lee were scheduled to appear together on Good Morning Britain for what would have been their first joint TV interview, however Katie was left to face the cameras alone after Lee failed to board a flight from The UAE.

Katie has had no contact with her husband since Thursday, and his location has remained a mystery ever since. As the days passed, she insisted he had been kidnapped, and a missing persons report was subsequently filed.

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Now his mother, Trisha, has spoken out, pleading: “Please bring my son back.” Katie had initially claimed in a video shared on social media that Lee was in a van with “ties around his hand when she last spoken to him.

When asked whether she believed her son had been kidnapped, Trisha told The Sun: “I don’t know, he could have been. I’ve not seen the video. I don’t know the laws out there but I wouldn’t have thought they’d use cables. Wouldn’t they put handcuffs on?”

Trisha, who works as a travelling medium performing readings, also suggested her daughter-in-law shares “too much” on social media. She added: “I think she’s exploiting in general, that’s what I meant She’s always putting things on [social media] isn’t she? As I said, I get on with Katie. She puts too much on [social media].”

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Trisha went on to claim Lee has been living in Dubai for over 20 years, with her last visit to him being approximately six years ago, and she hasn’t seen him since he was last in the UK around 2022.

Throughout the ordeal, Katie has been swift to hit back at those suggesting the entire situation is nothing more than a publicity stunt, the Mirror reports.

In a recent video, Katie faced the camera and opened up about how difficult she was finding things. She said: “Hey everyone, I’m here to do an update about Lee. This is a really difficult time for me at the moment. It’s been five days since I’ve heard anything from Lee. None of his family have heard anything, his dad is out in Dubai and he’s heard nothing.”

She revealed Lee had been reported missing to the British Embassy – with the Foreign Office confirming they are “supporting the family of a British man” – and her “anxiety levels are sky high”.

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Katie then made a heartfelt plea to her followers, continuing: “If there’s anyone in Dubai or you know anyone in Dubai and you spot him or see him… I don’t know because I don’t know where he is. Because the last thing I know, his hands were tied and he had a hood over his head and he was in the back of a van.”

The star also expressed her gratitude to those who have shown their support, including fans, family and friends. “All I can do is look after myself and my head and get on with each day as I can,” she said.

“Because I still have to get on with life. I want to thank everyone for their kind messages. I’m a tough girl. I’m a survivor but I’ve never been in a situation like this.

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“No one needs to worry about me, I always keep my head mind body and soul in check as I have done for a long time but it’s just the unknown and the anxiety because I just don’t know where he is. It is distressing.”

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NI council to tackle ‘scourge’ of scramblers and E-scooters amid fatality and drug run concerns

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Belfast Live

“Certainly, working with the parents would be key to all of this.”

A NI council is to crack down on the illegal use of scramblers due to public safety fears and the sinister use of youths for “drug runs” in the district.

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Newry, Mourne and Down District Council’s active and healthy committee this week approved a strategy to tackle the “scourge” of off-roaders, including E-scooters and quad bikes.

New joint patrols of PSNI officers and community volunteers could look to confiscate the vehicles in order to prevent a further fatal tragedy such as that of Dublin teenager Grace Lynch earlier this year.

READ MORE: Council CEO reacts to claims of ‘slow’ responses to the media.

READ MORE: NI council to combat ‘horrendous’ online abuse of councillors.

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Bringing forward the motion, Newry Sinn Féin councillor Aidan Mathers said: “This council will actively engage with policy and the community to enforce this policy.

“It calls on the council to develop and enforce an implementation plan in collaboration with the PSNI and local stakeholders.

“This includes regular joint patrols in known hotspot areas and clear reporting pathways for residents to raise concerns.

“He added: “There is a very real and growing concern across our district.

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“We are all aware of the widespread anxiety caused by illegal and dangerous use of scramblers and other off-road vehicles.

“They are causing fear and intimidation and people are afraid to speak out.

“There is a very real risk to public safety, which we see throughout Ireland and recently in Dublin with Grace Lynch, who lost her life after being hit by a scrambler.

“I’ve witnessed the driver of a scrambler in Newry speeding without a helmet and, more alarming, a passenger no older than 12 with no safety gear on.

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“The potential of a real tragedy doesn’t bear thinking about.

“As we head into the summer months this issue is only going to increase, so we need to tackle it now. These vehicles should be confiscated when possible.”

Grace Lynch, 16, died in January after being hit in Finglas, Co Dublin, with her family campaigning for stronger laws in her name.

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In March, Grace’s Law came into effect to ban scramblers from all public spaces in the Republic of Ireland.

In Northern Ireland, scramblers are mostly illegal on public roads and spaces, but are not subject to a blanket ban.

Mournes Alliance councillor Jill Truesdale said:”I do think we are playing catch-up with this.

“I was talking to the police as we have scramblers being used to do drug runs, it is young adults, it is not kids.

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“But the problem the police have is that they can’t run the risk of chasing the person in case it is a child and there ends up being an accident.

“And nine times out of 10 they have to give back the vehicle and cannot confiscate them, which is very frustrating.

“We know the Justice Minister ( Naomi Long – Alliance) is currently working on closing legislative gaps and strengthening powers.

“We all need to work with the police, but maybe there is something higher up we can do about how these vehicles are getting into Northern Ireland, they are an absolute scourge.”

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Rowallane DUP councillor Jonathan Jackson added: “We do have to focus on the age of a lot of these kids involved in this activity.

“And we need to look at how we can educate some of the parents of these people and make them realise what they are doing is obviously breaking the law.”

Newry SDLP councillo r Doire Finn said: “From speaking to the PSNI, this is a problem where some of the parents are purchasing these vehicles for their children who are using them.

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“How are we going to communicate with these parents?”

A council officer responded: “We are aware that a lot of these scooters are being bought and there is not a full understanding of where they can or can’t be used.

“We will liaise with our marketing department on a campaign to target all of the areas on education and awareness.

“Certainly, working with the parents would be key to all of this.”

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UK inflation rate set to fall as lower household energy bills offset fuel surge

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UK inflation rate set to fall as lower household energy bills offset fuel surge

Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said April’s lower energy price cap will “go some way towards helping offset higher petrol, airline and other prices impacted by the elevated global oil price backdrop” with Brent crude oil trading at an average of around 120 US dollars a barrel during the month.

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Friendship or geopolitics? BBC breaks down Xi and Putin relationship

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Friendship or geopolitics? BBC breaks down Xi and Putin relationship

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin are meeting in Beijing for bilateral talks. The BBC’s China correspondent Laura Bicker, and Russia editor Steve Rosenberg, break down their relationship and answer this key question – are they best friends, or is it just geopolitics?

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Emergency services attend large vehicle fire on A64

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Emergency services attend large vehicle fire on A64

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US government agrees to drop tax claims against Trump

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US government agrees to drop tax claims against Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. government will permanently drop tax claims against President Donald Trump, according to a settlement document made public Tuesday, in an extraordinary use of executive power that could effectively help shield the president from further examination of his finances and legal conduct.

As part of the settlement deal meant to resolve Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service over the leak of his tax returns, the U.S. is “forever barred and precluded” from examining or prosecuting Trump, his sons and the Trump organization’s current tax examinations, according to a one-page document posted to the Justice Department’s website.

The government is also barred from looking into Trump’s family, affiliates and others, according to the document, which is signed by acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. That document is a separate addendum from the original settlement announced Monday, and was quietly added to the Justice Department website on Tuesday.

The White House referred Associated Press inquiries to the Justice Department, and the U.S. Treasury did not respond to Associated Press requests for comment.

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The settlement refers only to existing audits, not future examinations, the Justice Department said in response to a request for comment on the expanded settlement.

The move comes after the Trump administration announced Monday, as part of the lawsuit settlement, the creation of a nearly $1.8 billion fund to compensate allies of the Republican president who believe they have been unjustly investigated and prosecuted, an arrangement that Democrats and government watchdogs criticize as “corrupt” and unconstitutional.

The “Anti-Weaponization Fund” of $1.776 billion will allow people who believe they were targeted for prosecution for political purposes, including by the Biden administration Justice Department, to apply for payouts, creating what Blanche called “a lawful process for victims of lawfare and weaponization to be heard and seek redress.”

Blanche, who was grilled by lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, would not rule out the possibility that people who carried out violence during the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol will be considered for payouts from the new fund.

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Democratic lawmakers and ethics watchdogs slammed the creation of the fund, saying it was corrupt, opaque and had the potential to become a “slush fund” for the president and his allies. Even Republican lawmakers have expressed signs of discomfort about the fund’s creation, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who told reporters that he’s “not a big fan.”

Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday that the fund is dedicated to “reimbursing people who were horribly treated.”

Daniel Werfel, a former IRS Commissioner during the Biden administration, said he was unaware of instances where the IRS agreed in advance “to permanently forgo examination of previously filed tax returns for a specific person or business.”

He said the arrangement granted Trump and his family separate tax rules from other Americans.

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“Whether you are the president or Joe the Plumber, people expect the same tax rules and enforcement framework to apply to everybody.”

The fund was announced after Trump, his sons Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., and the Trump Organization agreed to drop their lawsuit against the IRS and the Treasury Department. The lawsuit alleged that a leak of confidential tax records caused them reputational and financial harm and negatively affected their public standing, among other allegations.

According to the original settlement agreement posted to the Justice Department website Monday, Trump will receive a formal apology from the U.S. government but “will not receive any monetary payment or damages of any kind” from the settlement. Still, the discharge of current potential tax claims could provide protection against any possible outstanding tax liabilities.

Kathleen Williams, the judge handling the lawsuit, dismissed the case on Monday and, in her filing, admonished the government agencies, notably the Justice Department, for failing to be transparent about the settlement.

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She said no agency “submitted any settlement documents nor filed any documents ensuring that settlement was appropriate where there was an outstanding question as to whether an actual case or controversy existed.”

___

Associated Press writer Alanna Durkin Richer contributed to this report.

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County Durham’s ‘hidden gem’ farm shops this bank holiday

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County Durham's 'hidden gem' farm shops this bank holiday

From a nationally crowned butcher near Durham City to an organic farm on the edge of Teesdale, these are the places worth adding to your bank holiday plans.


Broom House Farm Shop, Witton Gilbert

There is no better place to start than Broom House Farm, which last week was named the best butcher in the North of England at the 2026 Countryside Alliance Awards, known in farming circles as the “Rural Oscars.”

The organic farm sits above the Browney River Valley overlooking Durham City, and has been selling its own Aberdeen Angus beef, lamb, mutton and rare breed Saddleback pork since 2004. Everything on the butcher counter is reared on the farm itself.

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TripAdvisor reviewers are full of praise. One visitor wrote: “We go mainly for the shop and butchers.

The butchers are very friendly and knowledgeable and the meat is always top quality. As older people on a limited budget we are selective about what we eat and prefer to pay a bit more for the best quality.”

Another said simply: “What a delightful place. Food delicious.”

The farm also has a coffee shop serving breakfasts, brunches and homemade cakes, with outdoor seating and a forest adventure play area for families.

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It is closed on Sundays and Mondays, so plan your visit for Saturday at the latest.

Broom House Farm, Witton Gilbert, Durham, DH7 6TR


Knitsley Farm Shop and Granary Cafe, Consett

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A short drive from Lanchester and Consett, Knitsley Farm Shop sits on a working farm and holds a TripAdvisor rating of 4.7 out of 5 from more than 640 reviews, making it the second highest-rated restaurant in Consett.

The farm shop is known in particular for its homemade produce. One reviewer described it as “a culinary journey,” praising the butcher as “so helpful and knowledgeable” and the cheese and onion quiche as “the best I’ve ever tasted.”

Another regular simply called it a “hidden gem,” writing: “The ham broth and fruit scones are to die for.”

It was Highly Commended at the Countryside Alliance Rural Oscars in 2023 and the farm also starts baking at 3am, with the bakery producing fresh bread, scones and pastries that regularly sell out before lunchtime.

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(Image: The Northern Echo)

Knitsley is closed on Sundays and Mondays.

East Knitsley Grange Farm, Consett, County Durham, DH8 9EW


Broom Mill Farm Shop and The Mill Kitchen, West Auckland

Not to be confused with Broom House Farm near Durham City, Broom Mill Farm Shop is a family-run farm near Bishop Auckland with a restaurant open seven days a week from 8.30am.

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On TripAdvisor, one recent visitor wrote: “This is a fabulous café, where all meat is produced on their farm. The staff are extremely friendly.

Considering food is all local, the prices are very reasonable. This is the place to go if you are passionate about where your food comes from.” Another described it as a “gem of a place,” adding: “The staff were very friendly and courteous and our food was served quite quickly.”

The farm shop stocks traceable, zero food miles meats, local vegetables, cheeses and cakes, and the on-site Mill Kitchen is open for breakfast through to lunch every day of the bank holiday weekend.

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Broom Mill Farm Shop, West Auckland, Bishop Auckland, County Durham, DL14 9PJ


Cross Lanes Organic Farm Shop, Barnard Castle

For those heading into Teesdale, Cross Lanes Organic Farm sits just off the A66 on the outskirts of Barnard Castle and makes an ideal stop whether you are heading into the Dales or breaking a longer journey.

It was previously named as one of the best in the country, and one TripAdvisor reviewer called it “a little gem of a café on the A66,” writing: “I had the special lamb kofte and it was absolutely amazing.

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Everything was homemade, which I think goes for all things on the menu.”

Another noted: “The food is home made and freshly prepared while you wait and the portions are plentiful. You will find no processed food here.”

The site includes an organic restaurant, farm shop, butchers counter and deli, with the menu running from a full breakfast through to lunch specials.

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Open Monday and Wednesday to Saturday, with Sunday hours also available.

Cross Lanes Organic Farm, Barnard Castle, County Durham, DL12 9RT


Field and Fodder, Bearpark

One of County Durham’s newer food destinations, Field and Fodder at Aldin Grange near Bearpark won the Deli category at the 2026 Countryside Alliance Awards for the North of England at the same ceremony at which Broom House Farm won its butcher title.

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Early TripAdvisor reviewers have been enthusiastic. One wrote: “Such an amazing selection of fresh ingredients. You can tell so much thought and passion goes into each dish.

“My new fave place for brunch.”

Another described it as “a must see,” adding: “The service is fantastic and the atmosphere is lovely.

I always feel so warmly welcomed into this shop and never leave disappointed.”

The shop operates as a café on Mondays and Tuesdays, and as a fully licensed bar all day on Saturdays, with charcuterie boards available for dine-in or takeaway throughout.

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Field and Fodder, Aldin Grange Fishery, Bearpark, Durham, DH7 7AR

Have you visited any of these? Let us know in the comments.

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Illegal Sur-Ron bike seized by police after Farnworth chase

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Illegal Sur-Ron bike seized by police after Farnworth chase

Greater Manchester Police said officers from the Farnworth South Neighbourhood Team spotted the bike while on patrol last night (May 18).

According to police, the rider attempted to escape on foot after taking a “wrong turn” into a cul-de-sac, bringing the chase to an abrupt end.

In a statement posted on social media, a GMP spokesperson said: “This SurRon was spotted by officers from the Farnworth South Neighbourhood Team last night.

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“The rider took a wrong turn and found themselves in a dead-end street, swiftly ending the foot chase.

“The bike has been seized and will be sent for destruction.

“We are committed to tackling the illegal use of dangerous off-road bikes and illegally modified e-bikes on our roads to make Farnworth’s roads safer.”

Sur-Ron bikes are electric motorcycles commonly designed for off-road use, although some road-legal models are available in the UK.

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Under UK law, electric bikes that do not meet Electrically Assisted Pedal Cycle (EAPC) regulations, including limits on power output and speed, are classed as mopeds or motorcycles and must be registered, insured and ridden by a licensed rider.

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Two men stabbed as police called to ‘reports of violence’ in Littleport

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Two men have been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder

Two men were stabbed amid reports of violence in a Cambridgeshire town on Monday, May 18. Cambridgeshire Police were called at 7.51pm to reports of violence in Wisbech Road in Littleport.

Officers and paramedics attended and two men were treated for stab wounds. Cambridgeshire Police confirmed that the injuries are not life threatening. One man remains in hospital with serious injuries.

Two men, a 20-year-old from King’s Lynn and a 21-year-old from Ely, have been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder. They are in custody at Parkside Police Station.

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A spokesperson for Cambridgeshire Police said: “We were called at 7.51pm yesterday (18 May) to reports of violence in Wisbech Road, Littleport. Officers and paramedics attended and two men were treated for stab wounds that are not life threatening.

“Two men, a 20-year-old from King’s Lynn and a 21-year-old from Ely, were arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and are in custody at Parkside Police Station.”

They added: “We understand this will have caused concern locally, however we would like to reassure the community that this was an isolated incident and there is no wider threat to the public. There will be an increased police presence in the area today to provide reassurance.”

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Farnworth murder suspect ‘financially abused’ man, jury told

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Farnworth murder suspect 'financially abused' man, jury told

Ashley John Crowder, 36, is accused of murdering 37-year-old Graham Cox at Barton Walk in Farnworth at some point before March 5, 2024 and of repeatedly stealing from him and assaulting him.

A trial that opened this week at Bolton Crown Court, more than two years after Mr Cox was found dead, heard how he had been in a “pitiful state” in the time leading up to his death.

Mukul Chawla KC, prosecuting, said: “The murder occurred in the days before Graham Cox’s body was discovered on the evening of March 5.

“He had been beaten and there were fractures of the laryngeal cartilages in the neck.”

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The trial opened at Bolton Crown Court (Image: Phil Taylor)

He added: “The prosecution say that Mr Crowder beat and strangled Mr Cox to death.”

Mr Chawla said it had not been possible to establish the exact time of Mr Cox’s death but that it had happened at some point before March 5, 2024.

Mr Chawla told the jury of seven men and seven women that Mr Cox had been “extremely vulnerable”, because of his long-term drug use and from strokes he suffered in 2023.

Police on the scene around Barton Walk (Image: Newsquest)

He told jurors that Crowder had access to Mr Cox’s bank cards and phone and so was able to take money from him in the period leading up to the 37-year-old’s death.

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Mr Chawla said: “The thefts alleged are that this defendant stole money from Mr Cox.

“Not in the usual way perhaps by picking his pocket or by taking his wallet but, by forcing Mr Cox to pass all the money that he received as benefits from the Department of Work and Pensions to the defendant when Mr Cox was, as you will see, in desperate need of it.”

Crowder, who wore a teal and blue North Face top and black trousers, listened from the dock as Mr Chawla told the court he had assaulted Mr Cox on February 22, just weeks before his death.

Officers investigating around Barton Walk in Farnworth (Image: Newsquest)

He said Mr Cox was left with bruising to his face and arms and that he had “suffered a beating” that damaged his ribs.

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Jurors heard how on March 5 that year a woman called 999 and told the police she believed there was a dead man at a flat on Barton Walk.

On arriving, officers were let into Crowder’s flat by the defendant himself who told them “What it is, my mate’s passed away.

“I was about to phone the ambulance, I’ve just gone and checked on him, do you want to come in?”

A murder investigation was launched after Mr Cox was found dead (Image: Newsquest)

Mr Chawla said that Crowder told the officers Mr Cox had suffered a blood clot after hitting his head on a cabinet and that he had been “looking after him for four weeks”.

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Crowder was arrested on suspicion of assault shortly after Mr Cox was formally pronounced dead and just after midnight that night was rearrested on suspicion of murder.

On being interviewed Crowder refused to answer most of the questions put to him but made it clear that Mr Cox had not been “locked in the flat” and had been able to leave if he wanted to.

But Mr Chawla told the jury that the investigation uncovered a “history of profound physical and financial abuse of Mr Cox by the defendant”.

Mr Chawla said: “The prosecution say that it is clear that Graham Cox had been fearful of the defendant for some considerable time.”

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He told the jury that Mr Cox had made several complaints about Crowder over the last six months of 2023, not to the police but to medical professionals.

In one such case Mr Cox stayed over at hospital where a ward sister said that he told her that over the past 10 weeks a “friend” had stolen his bank card to buy drugs.

Mr Cox also told the nurse that this “friend” had taken the keys to his house, had been attacking him and that he was afraid to contact the police because he was fearful about “retaliation”.

Mr Chawla said it was clear that Crowder did in fact have Mr Cox’s bank cards during this time, including messages to his mother saying: “I’ve got Graham’s cards and phone”.

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Later, on August 16 that year, before being discharged from hospital Mr Cox told an occupational therapist that he had previously agreed to move in with a “friend”.

But things “very quickly turned sour” and this man was a heavy drug user who was often involved in physical attacks.

Mr Cox told the occupational therapist that before coming to hospital he was “being chased with a knife and was fearful for his life”.

Mr Chawla said on October 26, Mr Cox showed a healthcare assistant text he had received saying “words to the effect like ‘you will get me the money today’ and ‘don’t f*** me over.’”

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He told jurors how while staying at Royal Bolton Hospital Mr Cox “pleaded” with the healthcare assistant not to let Crowder into the ward to see him.

Crowder, of Barton Walk, Farnworth, denies murder, the alternative count of manslaughter, assault and four counts of theft.

The trial, before the Honorary Recorder for Bolton Judge Nicholas Clarke KC, continues.

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Is the Gulf losing its grip on the oil world?

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Is the Gulf losing its grip on the oil world?

One of the most striking features of the Iran war has been the resilience of the global oil market. Despite the disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, prices have generally hovered around US$100 (£75) per barrel – a lower level than many observers had expected.

A key reason for this resilience is the growing importance of oil production in the Americas. Even before the war, the International Energy Agency predicted that virtually all global oil demand growth in 2026 could be met by rising supply from North and South American countries such as the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina.

At that time, the Opec oil producers’ cartel was also preparing to increase output, raising expectations of a period of oversupply and weak prices. The war changed that picture dramatically. The closure of Hormuz has removed up to 14 million barrels a day from the market, propelling prices higher and triggering large global stock draws instead of the expected stock builds.

Yet high prices are often the best cure for shortages. Oil producers across the Americas have responded to the disruption by increasing output and exports. In the US, crude exports rose to a record 6.44 million barrels a day in April. It is also adding new export infrastructure, with nearly 800,000 barrels a day of additional dock capacity due to come online in 2026.

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Meanwhile, Brazil has added eight new offshore floating oil production vessels in recent years, with a combined capacity approaching 1.5 million barrels a day. Its oil production is also expected to rise sharply again in 2026.

Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company, recently started a new production project at one of these vessels in the Búzios field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Production began five months ahead of schedule, partly to take advantage of elevated global prices.

Elsewhere in South America, Guyana has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers. Guyanese oil output has already reached around 900,000 barrels a day and could almost double by the end of the decade. Even Venezuela, long associated with declining oil production and economic crisis, has substantially increased exports in response to higher prices.

Taken together, the Americas are expected to produce around 30 million barrels of oil per day later in 2026, approaching pre-war Opec production levels. The US alone remains the world’s largest producer, with its total production of liquid hydrocarbons reaching almost 22 million barrels a day in April.

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A US oil tanker off the coast of Alaska.
Natalia Bratslavsky / Shutterstock

Opec helped create this boom

This rise in western hemispheric production did not happen in isolation. Ironically, it was helped by Opec itself. For years, Opec’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia and its partners restricted oil output to support higher prices. Those elevated prices helped make more expensive projects in the Americas commercially viable, especially US shale production.

Saudi Arabia’s strategy of “higher for longer” prices was partly driven by domestic economic ambitions. To finance projects linked to its economic diversification plans, including the vast new Neom city development, the Saudis need oil prices of at least US$90 a barrel. The result has been a powerful incentive for producers outside Opec to expand.

Yet, despite this momentum, declaring a permanent shift in oil’s centre of gravity away from the Middle East would be premature. The economics of production still strongly favour Gulf producers, with oil extraction costs in the Persian Gulf remaining among the lowest in the world.

In some fields, Saudi Arabia and neighbouring producers can extract oil for less than US$10 a barrel. Across the Gulf region more broadly, average production costs are estimated at roughly US$27 a barrel. By contrast, much of North American shale production requires prices closer to between US$50 and US$65 a barrel to remain profitable.

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That difference matters enormously during periods of lower prices. If markets weaken again, higher-cost producers in the Americas would come under pressure first. Gulf producers, with vast reserves and extremely low costs, would probably be able to outlast them.

Geography also favours the Middle East in many key markets. For growing Asian economies such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, importing oil from the nearby Gulf remains the cheapest option.

Many Asian refineries were designed specifically to process Middle Eastern crude grades, which are rich in middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel – the hydrocarbons that typically drive economic development. Much of the shale oil exported from the US is lighter and less suitable as a direct replacement.

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A map showing pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Emirates that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have both invested heavily in infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Peter Hermes Furian / Shutterstock

At the same time, Gulf producers are investing heavily to protect their long-term role in global energy markets. The United Arab Emirates is expanding pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, including upgrading its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

And Saudi Arabia already operates its vast East-West Pipeline, which is capable of transporting 7 million barrels per day of oil to the Red Sea. These projects are designed to reduce vulnerability to regional instability and secure export routes for decades to come.

The Americas are unquestionably transforming the global oil market. The region is now effectively what is known as a swing producer, providing some flexibility during supply crises and geopolitical shocks.

But long-term dominance in oil markets is determined not only by production volumes. Cost, geography, infrastructure and reserve size matter too. On those measures, the Middle East still holds a formidable advantage.

For as long as the world continues to consume large volumes of oil, the Gulf is likely to remain the industry’s core production and export hub – even if the Americas are becoming an increasingly important source of crude oil.

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