AUSTIN, Texas — Elon Musk continues to make sweeping predictions about how artificial intelligence and robotics will reshape the global economy over the next decade, offering forecasts ranging from a billion-strong robot workforce to a future in which human labor becomes entirely optional. Here are five of his most striking recent predictions.

More than 1 billion humanoid robots operating within 10 years. Speaking virtually at the G20 Innovation Ministerial in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on Sept. 1, Musk predicted that advances in AI software, onboard AI chips and electromechanical dexterity would eventually allow robot manufacturing to become recursive, with robots building more robots at an accelerating pace.

“Ten years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots,” Musk said, according to a transcript of his remarks. He described the productivity of each robot as “probably five times that of a human,” calling the overall forecast “a conservative estimate” he would “put serious money betting on.” Musk said a fleet of that scale would ultimately be “more productive than all humans combined.” Global humanoid robot shipments totaled just 19,100 units in the first half of this year, according to figures cited alongside Musk’s remarks, illustrating how dramatic the projected 10-year growth curve would need to be for his prediction to materialize.

Artificial intelligence adding $20 trillion to $30 trillion to the global economy annually. During the same G20 address, Musk offered a specific estimate for how much digital AI alone could boost worldwide economic output, separate from the additional gains he expects from physical robotics.

Musk said digital AI could lift the global economy by 20% to 30%, translating to roughly $20 trillion to $30 trillion in additional annual output, according to Bloomberg TV’s coverage of his remarks. He argued that robotics represents a separate and potentially even larger source of future economic growth, given the physical labor tasks robots could eventually perform that purely digital AI systems cannot.

AI reaching “Stockfish-level” software coding capability within 12 to 18 months. Musk offered a specific near-term timeline for when he expects AI systems to become superhuman at software engineering tasks, drawing a comparison to the dominant chess-playing computer program Stockfish.

According to CNBC’s coverage of the G20 session, Musk predicted AI would reach “Stockfish-level” coding ability within about 12 to 18 months, invoking five-time world chess champion Magnus Carlsen as a point of reference for what it means for a machine to definitively surpass the best human performers in a given domain. Musk said that same general timeline applies more broadly to AI becoming extremely capable across engineering and other digital work, predicting that by the end of next year, AI should be able to handle any digital task that does not require physically manipulating atoms by hand.

Human labor becoming largely “optional” within 10 to 20 years. Beyond his predictions about robots and AI’s direct economic impact, Musk has repeatedly forecast a future in which most people will no longer need to work for economic survival, describing a shift toward work as a personal choice rather than a necessity.

Speaking in an interview with Zerodha co-founder Nikhil Kamath, Musk laid out his timeline directly.

“My prediction is, in less than 20 years, working will be optional, working at all will be optional, like a hobby pretty much,” Musk said, adding that the shift could arrive in “less than 20 years, maybe even as little as 10 or 15 years.” He compared the choice to whether someone works in that future to a person’s decision to grow their own vegetables despite being able to simply buy them from a store, framing continued labor as something people would pursue by preference rather than economic pressure.

Not everyone views Musk’s optional-work prediction as realistic. Kaz Hassan, principal of community and insights at the AI-powered employee experience platform Unily, has argued that Musk’s framing measures human work through an outdated, purely task-based model.

“For the last centuries, we’ve measured work through task completion and time investment,” Hassan said. “How many projects delivered? How many hours logged? How many emails sent? We’ve treated human contribution like machine output: quantifiable, replicable and scalable.” Hassan has suggested AI will ultimately expose the limits of that model, given its inability to replicate the kind of contextual judgment and strategic intuition that often drives genuine organizational success.

Humans reaching Mars within 10 years, and possibly as soon as five. Musk’s predictions extend beyond Earth-bound technology to his longtime ambition of establishing a human presence on Mars through SpaceX. Speaking on the Lex Fridman podcast, Musk offered a specific timeline for when he expects SpaceX to be capable of carrying humans to the Red Planet.

“Best case is about five years. Worst case, 10 years,” Musk said, citing continued development of SpaceX’s Starship vehicle as the key remaining engineering challenge standing in the way of that goal. Musk has described Starship as “the most complex and advanced rocket that’s ever been made,” and has framed the broader Mars effort as central to his long-term vision of humanity becoming what he calls a “multiplanetary species,” a goal he has said is essential to ensuring humanity’s survival should a catastrophic event ever threaten life on Earth.

Musk’s willingness to attach specific, often aggressive timelines to his predictions has become a defining and frequently scrutinized feature of his public commentary over the years, with some forecasts, including earlier predictions about electric vehicle adoption and Mars colonization dates, having already come and gone without materializing on Musk’s original schedule. Even so, his continued influence over major technology companies spanning AI, robotics and space exploration, through Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and Neuralink, has kept his predictions closely watched by investors, policymakers and technologists alike, regardless of how consistently his specific timelines have historically held up against subsequent developments.

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on a range of US goods came into effect on Tuesday, with no sign of a trade deal on the horizon.

The counter-tariffs will apply to nearly C$28bn ($20bn; £15bn) worth of American products, from steel to furniture to cotton T-shirts, and will be as high as 50%.

Fresh fish and lobster were also on the list, but Canada later omitted them after pushback from its seafood industry – a sign of the tricky balance it has to strike as it retaliates against its largest trading partner.

Both US and Canadian officials have said they would like to strike a deal, but no movement has been made to resume talks after they collapsed in late August.

Speaking to reporters last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Canada is still in search of a deal with the US that is “durable” and in the best interests of both countries.

“We’re ready to sit down and strike that deal when the Americans are ready,” Carney said.

US trade representative Jamieson Greer said on Thursday the ball is in Canada’s court.

“We offered them the best deal, they looked at it square in the face and turned around,” Greer said in an interview with Fox News, adding that there has been sparse communication with the Canadians since talks collapsed.

In a separate interview with Canadian broadcaster CBC, Greer cautioned against retaliation and suggested the US might hit back by banning the import of some Canadian products.

President Donald Trump threatened on Monday to halt all US business with Canada-based airplane maker Bombardier unless it moved its manufacturing south.

The aerospace giant is one of the largest in the country, contributing over C$7bn to Canada’s annual GDP in 2024, according to a report by accounting firm PwC.

The latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0817 GMT – Novartis’s latest clinical-trial failure suggests the company might need more dealmaking to deliver on its ambition for steady growth beyond 2030, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. The Swiss drugmaker maintained its 2025-30 sales guidance as it said its neuromuscular drug del-desiran missed the main goal in a late-stage study. However, no comment was provided on the ambition to grow by mid-single percentage digits beyond 2030, the analysts say. Even with the recent success of a new multiple-sclerosis pill, it will be challenging to get confidence on the company’s growth for the 2030s without del-desiran and del-brax, two drugs Novartis acquired from Avidity Biosciences, Jefferies says. As a result, dealmaking will likely remain part of Novartis’s story, the analysts add. Shares fall 10%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

The deals are part of Advanced Healthcare’s bid to become a leading healthcare and mobility group

A Newcastle-based healthcare and mobility investor has acquired two Scottish businesses using a six-figure backing from the Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund.

Advanced Healthcare Group bought mobility equipment providers Able Care and City Mobility serving communities in Scotland. Both companies will continued to operate under their existing brands with workforces remaining in place.

The investment, which comes from NPIF II – NEL Debt Finance, managed by NEL Fund Managers as part of the Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund II (NPIF II), follows Advanced Healthcare’s acquisition of Dundee-based Allardyce Healthcare last year.

By bringing the businesses into the stable, the group hopes to drive efficiencies and support future expansion. Advanced Healthcare is led by Gary Lynch, alongside healthcare investors James Oates and Ross Tomkins, and David Lynch, who co-founded NEL-backed Lynch Healthcare in 2009 before a private equity exit the following year.

Mr Oates said: ” These acquisitions represent another important milestone in our strategy to build a leading healthcare and mobility group with the scale, expertise and resources to serve customers across the UK and beyond. Able Care and City Mobility have built exceptional reputations over many decades, and we’re committed to supporting their continued success while preserving the values and customer relationships that have made them so highly regarded.

“It was a pleasure to work with James, Michael and the wider NEL team on this transaction. The process was seamless from start to finish and the support throughout was exceptional. I would highly recommend NEL as an investment partner.”

Mr Lynch added: “Adding Able Care and City Mobility to the Advanced Healthcare Group allows us to honour the fantastic legacy of both businesses while helping them continue to evolve and grow across Scotland. I’ve worked with NEL on a number of investments over the years, so I knew they would be the right partner for this transaction.”

The investment was led by Michael Williams, investment executive at NEL Fund Managers. He said: “The Advanced Healthcare team combines significant sector expertise with a clear strategy for growth. They understand how to build successful businesses while preserving the heritage, reputation and customer relationships that have made companies such as Able Care and City Mobility successful.

“We’re delighted to have supported these acquisitions and look forward to seeing the business continue its ambitious growth journey.”

Sarah Newbould, senior investment manager at the British Business Bank, said: “The Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund II is helping Advanced Healthcare Group take an important step forward in its growth journey. Through investments like this, we’re supporting ambitious businesses to grow, strengthening regional economies and helping to create new opportunities across the North.”

The investment opportunity was referred to NEL by Abu Ali of FRP Advisory and the legal side of the transaction was supported by Sophie Bailey of Sheppard & Wedderburn acting for Advanced Healthcare Group, Thomas Pullar of CMS acting for NEL, and Thomas McGahie of BBM Solicitors acting for the sellers.

The £660m Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund II is operated by the British Business Bank and covers the entire North of England, proving loans of between £25,000 to £2m and equity investments of up to £5m.