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Algorand Officially Debuts on Robinhood US: A Boost for Retail Accessibility

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Algorand Officially Debuts on Robinhood US: A Boost for Retail Accessibility

Algorand (ALGO) token is now fully tradable on Robinhood for U.S. retail users, ending a multi-year freeze that traced directly to the SEC’s 2023 enforcement wave.

The listing restores a domestic retail gateway for one of the tokens most visibly caught in the crossfire of the agency’s campaign to classify crypto assets as unregistered securities.

The regulatory overhang was explicit. In June 2023, the SEC’s complaint against Coinbase named ALGO specifically as an unregistered security, citing Algorand’s early token sales and promotional activity as evidence of an investment contract.

That single filing triggered a wave of U.S. platform restrictions. Robinhood’s U.S. app quietly shifted ALGO to view-only status, displaying price data while blocking trades.

Robinhood Europe, operating under EU frameworks where ALGO is treated as a standard crypto asset, had already offered full ALGO spot trading throughout that period.

The divergence between the same company’s U.S. and European product lines was the clearest possible illustration of how much regulatory jurisdiction shapes retail access.

Discover: The best pre-launch token sales

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What the Robinhood Listing Actually Changes for Algorand (ALGO)

The directional signal here is unambiguous. When a major U.S. retail brokerage, one that previously restricted a token citing compliance risk, restores full trading access, it reflects a recalibrated internal legal assessment.

Robinhood’s platform reaches millions of retail users across all 50 states, and the decision to support ALGO under its existing New York State Department of Financial Services license is a statement about where the platform now places the token on the regulatory risk spectrum.

The broader regulatory environment has shifted materially since 2023. The post-Gensler SEC has retreated from the enforcement-first posture that produced the ALGO security classification, and the CLARITY Act reaching the Senate floor signals that legislative frameworks are advancing to replace the old guidance-by-lawsuit approach.

Robinhood’s move fits that arc; it is listing an asset that remains in legal gray territory technically, but where the practical enforcement risk has diminished enough to clear internal compliance thresholds.

Robinhood’s Bitstamp acquisition adds another layer. Bitstamp, now branded “Bitstamp by Robinhood”, has operated active ALGO/USD markets for years, meaning the infrastructure and liquidity rails for ALGO already existed within Robinhood’s corporate footprint before the U.S. retail launch.

Source: ALGOUSD / Tradingview

This was an alignment exercise as much as a new listing. Community threads on r/Algorand have framed the development as a “validation” step, with the consensus being that rebuilding presence on major U.S. retail brokerages is a prerequisite for ALGO recovering meaningful domestic retail volume.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

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Fairshake PAC’s $20M backing shapes outcomes in three primaries

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Crypto Breaking News

Crypto industry-backed political action committees are embedding themselves more deeply in U.S. state contests, signaling a continued push to influence policy and the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms. In a string of Tuesday primaries, the Fairshake PAC and its affiliates rolled out a coordinated media and outreach effort backed by the kind of industry money long cited by proponents as essential to advancing crypto-friendly legislation.

The Fairshake operation, largely funded by Ripple Labs and Coinbase, poured a combined $20 million into supportive media across the Georgia, Kentucky, and Alabama races. The committees operate through vehicles such as Defend American Jobs, which backs Republican candidates, and Protect Progress, aimed at Democratic contenders deemed to be pro-crypto. The result, according to participants and public filings, was a notable showing for candidates aligned with crypto-friendly positions even as races remained tightly contested in several districts.

Fairshake spokesperson Geoff Vetter framed Tuesday’s outcomes as a bipartisan signal, telling Cointelegraph that “Fairshake’s 6-0 sweep tonight was a clear victory for pro-crypto leaders across the country,” adding that the momentum translates into a broader nationwide mandate “from Georgia to Alabama to Kentucky.”

Key takeaways

  • Massive media spend backing crypto-friendly candidates. Fairshake and affiliates reported about $20 million in media support to shape outcomes in Georgia, Kentucky, and Alabama races, with major contributions from Ripple and Coinbase.
  • Georgia and Kentucky see targeted spending on specific races. In Georgia, Protect Progress spent over $4.2 million to back Jasmine Clark in the 13th District; Defend American Jobs backed multiple GOP contenders, including $7.2 million for Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race and hundreds of thousands for several Georgia districts.
  • Alabama’s Senate contest moves to a runoff; crypto-aligned money remains in play. Barry Moore secured support totaling about $7.4 million from Defend American Jobs, with the primary producing a runoff against Steve Marshall and Jared Hudson.
  • Texas becomes a litmus test for crypto-influenced campaigns in a swing district. Protect Progress spent over $4.1 million to back Christian Menefee in Texas’ 18th District and more than $2.8 million opposing Al Green, who has opposed crypto-friendly legislation; a runoff has been triggered.
  • Funding scale and historical context matter for policy risk. Crypto PACs have built a substantial war chest—Protect Progress once projected a multi-year spend plan and a larger war chest than in 2024—but past campaigns show money alone doesn’t always sway outcomes, as illustrated by Illinois’ 2024 experience where anti-crypto messaging did not prevent an incumbent’s victory.

Crypto money, candidates and the policy horizon

Tuesday’s results reflect a sustained strategy: deploy substantial media buys and targeted messaging to tilt local races in favor of candidates perceived as friendlier to crypto interests. The FEC filings cited by Cointelegraph show Protect Progress’ substantial expenditures in Georgia’s 13th District, where Jasmine Clark was the beneficiary of more than $4.2 million in campaign media support. In the same state, Defend American Jobs earmarked hundreds of thousands of dollars for other GOP candidates who are generally viewed as supportive of cryptocurrency industry positions.

In Kentucky, a push to bolster incumbents perceived as crypto-friendly translated into a sizeable corporate-financed effort for the U.S. Senate race, with about $7.2 million directed toward that contest. Alabama’s primary race for the U.S. Senate also emerged as a focal point of crypto-funded campaigning, with Barry Moore receiving about $7.4 million in backing from Defend American Jobs, setting the stage for a runoff against rival contenders when no candidate achieved a majority.

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These dynamics matter for investors and builders who watch the policy environment closely. While this wave of spending demonstrates the industry’s willingness to align resources with electoral outcomes, it also underscores a broader challenge: the effectiveness of PAC-driven media campaigns in translating dollars into durable political influence remains uneven. Past episodes, including Fairshake’s experience in Illinois, where a sizeable outlay failed to derail an incumbent, illustrate that money can shape discourse and visibility, but not always final votes.

Texas test: Menefee vs. Green as a crypto-litmus district

The Texas 18th District race provided another important test case for crypto-aligned political activity. Protect Progress’ filings show more than $4.1 million spent to back Democrat Christian Menefee, who faces incumbent Al Green in a district with a history of moderate to liberal leanings. In parallel, the PAC reported more than $2.8 million spent to oppose Green, highlighting a bifurcated approach: build support for a crypto-friendly voice while actively challenging a candidate whose record includes opposition to certain crypto policies.

Green’s voting history on payment tokens and digital asset legislation has been cited by crypto advocates as a cautionary tale about anti-crypto sentiment in Congress. The campaign spotlight on the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act underscores the ongoing legislative battle over how digital assets are regulated, taxed, and integrated into the broader financial system. Tuesday’s fundraising and messaging dynamics will feed into how crypto advocates calibrate their strategy in Texas and beyond as other districts prepare for subsequent primaries and runoff elections.

Protect Progress’ plan, as outlined in prior coverage, is to press pro-crypto candidates while opposing anti-crypto lawmakers in the run-up to 2026. The group’s growing financial firepower—reflected in a war chest Reuters and industry observers have described as substantial—suggests that crypto firms intend to maintain a steady political cadence, even as electoral outcomes prove uneven across states.

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A broader arc: money, influence and policy uncertainty

The breadth of crypto-pac activity in these primaries signals a continuing bet that policy changes could accompany or follow a reshaping of the political landscape in the 2026 cycle. It also raises questions about how much influence well-funded media campaigns can wield in state races where local issues, candidate quality, and party alignment often drive outcomes. For investors, this translates into a clearer sense of where the industry plans to lean on policy advocates—maintaining pressure on lawmakers who favor crypto-friendly rules while seeking to minimize the chances of bills perceived as punitive or restrictive.

Analysts will be watching how the crypto-aligned committees adapt to the next round of primaries and general elections. The pace of spending, the allocation across media, and the willingness to fund both Republican and Democratic candidates point to a strategic approach: partner with a broad spectrum of lawmakers and brands while staying ready to pivot as districts change hands or as regulatory proposals gain or lose steam in statehouses and Congress alike.

As Tuesday’s results settle, readers should monitor the ensuing runoffs and the feedback from candidate platforms on issues such as stablecoins, crypto taxation, and digital-asset market structure. The lessons from this cycle may help shape both campaign tactics and policy debates as the industry weighs its bets for 2026 and beyond.

What remains uncertain is how much these campaigns will influence actual policy outcomes, given the complexity of crypto regulation and the diversity of state legislative priorities. Still, with a broad coalition of donors, industry spokespeople, and media proponents actively shaping the narrative, the sector appears prepared to keep pressing its agenda through the next wave of elections.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: On-Chain Metric Says BTC Is Coiling for a Big Move

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Bitcoin is trading at $77.5k as the third week of May draws to a close. The market is recovering quietly from the $75k–$76k support zone after last week’s failed breakout attempt above $80k.

The structure has absorbed the pullback without breaking, the ascending channel floor continues to rise, and the on-chain picture tells a story that the price chart alone undersells. Sentiment is rebuilding from levels last seen at the very beginning of the previous bull market.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the ascending white channel from the February low has held, with the asset bouncing from the upper edge of the $75k–$76k support zone today, rising toward $77.5k. The 100-day moving average is now sloping upward to approximately $72k and is now converging with that same support zone. This will likely create a strengthening combined support floor that rises a little further every week.

The RSI is also hovering around 50, showing little signs of directional momentum. A recovery back above $80k and a breakout above the 200-day moving average nearby are the immediate requirements to restore bullish momentum.

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If this scenario materializes, the $88k–$90k band is the structural target above. On the other hand, a daily candle close below $75k and the 100-day MA near $72k would be the first serious structural damage of the recovery.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The bounce from the $75k–$76k support zone has lifted the 4-hour RSI from the low-to-mid 30s back to approximately 50. The asset is now tracking toward the bearish Fair Value Gap marked on the chart near $80k. This is a price imbalance left by the sharp sell-off from the $82k highs, which the underlying asset typically returns to fill before resolving direction.

The FVG is the immediate short-term target on the upside. A clean move through it would signal that the pullback is fully absorbed and the next push toward the $82k supply zone and the upper boundary of the daily channel is building. However, failure to trade through the FVG and a rollover back below $75k would suggest the selling pressure from the failed breakout is not yet exhausted, opening the path toward the lower demand zone at $70k–$72k as the next test.

On-Chain Analysis

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss has recovered from its February low of approximately 0.12, which was the deepest reading since October 2023 and briefly demonstrated a capitulation period. The metric has now risen back to the current reading of 0.29. That number puts the market above the green zone, and the average BTC holder is sitting on moderate unrealized gains, but the kind of euphoria that precedes major tops is nowhere in sight.

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The historical parallel is precise. NUPL crossed 0.29 in late 2023 near $40k on its way to the bull market peak. The journey from that level to the 0.50 threshold, where momentum historically accelerates, corresponded to a price move from roughly $40k to $80k. At $77.5k with NUPL at 0.29, the on-chain sentiment structure suggests the market is in a similar position. It’s likely past capitulation, rebuilding confidence, but with the majority of the cycle’s unrealized gains still ahead rather than behind.

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Latest Congressional swing at crypto tax reform would direct IRS to review de minimis exemptions

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Latest Congressional swing at crypto tax reform would direct IRS to review de minimis exemptions

A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a revised crypto tax bill Wednesday that aims to update the tax code to better address crypto use cases and would, if signed into law, direct the IRS to analyze the effect de minimis exemptions might have.

Congressmen Steven Horsford (D-N.V.), Max Miller (R-Ohio), Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) and Mike Carey (R-Ohio) reintroduced the Digital Asset Protection, Accountability, Regulation, Innovation, Taxation and Yields Act, otherwise known as the Parity Act, that Horsford and Miller had previously pushed a few times. The new language comes a week after lawmakers reportedly met to discuss crypto tax reform.

The new version of the bill calls for “regulated payment stablecoins” to incur no gain or loss unless the cost basis is less than 99% of the redemption value of the stablecoin, and it also creates a safe harbor for trading through brokers or in taxpayer accounts, defines how so-called “wash sale” rules might apply to digital assets and addresses how digital assets earned by acting as a validator.

The bill also directs the IRS to review what sort of tax burden crypto holders face when it comes to “small digital asset transactions” and how many transactions worth less than $200 are captured under existing law. This review should include the IRS’ needs if there was a de minimis exemption — meaning a carveout for activity that the law should consider too small to be concerned with — for crypto transactions, as well as whether and how such an exemption might be abused.

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The crypto industry has long argued that freeing taxpayers of the burden of having to file and report taxes on small transactions would make it easier to use crypto as a payments tool for small items like a cup of coffee.

The bill is meant to just be a first step toward broader crypto tax reform, Horsford said at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference earlier this month.

“I actually think tax is the foundation. Why? Because it’s tax policy that will determine number one, how these digital assets can be used in our finance system. And at a time when our federal tax code is outdated, it does not take into account the modernization of digital assets,” he said.

“For example, none of the current regulatory policy framework tells a consumer, an institution, or a builder what happens to their taxes when they sell a digital asset, earned staking reward, lend crypto on the U.S. platform or make a charitable contribution in bitcoin,” the lawmaker said “Those are tax questions. And they remain entirely unresolved.”

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HYPE Crosses $50 for First Time Since September

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HYPE Crosses $50 for First Time Since September


Hyperliquid's HYPE token crossed $50 on Wednesday for the first time since September 2025, in part fueled by a high-profile call from Bitwise's chief investment officer. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan on Tuesday argued in a weekly memo that the market is undervaluing Hyperliquid. Hougan framed Hyperliquid… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Pi Network (PI) Price Predictions for This Week, May 20

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PI loses key support. Where will buyers return?

PI Network (PI) Price Predictions: Analysis

Key support levels: $0.15, $0.13

Key resistance levels: $0.16, $0.20

PI Loses Key Support as Sellers Return

Since late last week, selling has intensified, which put pressure on the $0.16 support until this level could not hold any longer and broke. Because of this, it is now acting as a key resistance.

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This breakdown could be interpreted as a resumption of the macro downtrend after a long pause that started in February when the price began to move sideways. To confirm the downtrend, the price will need to make a lower low under $0.13.

pi_price_chart_2005261
Source: TradingView

Bears Take Over the Price Action

Since PI lost support at $0.16, bears drove the price down to $0.15. Here, buyers appear to make a stand, but their conviction appears weak considering the low buy volume.

If buyers are unable to reverse this price action soon, then this cryptocurrency will likely test the all-time low at $0.13. A re-test of that level would be a bearish signal that could encourage sellers to push the price even lower.

pi_price_chart_2005262
Source: TradingView

Daily RSI Enters Oversold Area

Due to nonstop selling over the past five days, the daily RSI fell below 30 and entered the oversold area. This could explain why buyers may be interested here since a bounce is likely.

Sellers may need a break before they resume their pressure, which can give an opening for buyers to push back. However, any bounce may be short-lived, and a test of the key $0.13 support remains likely.

pi_price_chart_2005263
Source: TradingView

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Securitize remains in the red even as record quarter fuels public listing plans

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Securitize, Computershare open path for $70 trillion U.S. stocks to move onchain

Securitize reported record quarterly revenue as the tokenization platform continued advancing toward an eventual public listing through its proposed SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners II (CEPT), underscoring growing institutional demand for tokenized real-world assets despite ongoing profitability pressures.

The Miami-based company said first-quarter revenue rose 39% year over year to $19.5 million, the highest quarterly revenue in its history, according to results released Wednesday.

Asset servicing revenue surged 201% to $8.3 million, reflecting the continued expansion of Securitize Fund Services, which serviced 650 active funds as of March 31. Tokenization revenue totaled $11.1 million, compared with $11 million in the same quarter a year earlier.

The company ended the quarter with $3.4 billion in tokenized assets under management, $24.9 billion in assets under administration and $1.9 billion in aggregated transaction volume.

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Despite top-line growth, Securitize remained unprofitable as it increased spending on expansion efforts and preparations for becoming a publicly traded company. Net loss widened to $7.9 million, or 88 cents per diluted share, while adjusted EBITDA fell to $800,000 from $4.1 million in the prior-year period.

Chief Financial Officer Francisco Flores said the company continued investing in headcount and infrastructure to support long-term growth and its public-market transition, while maintaining what he described as disciplined expense management.

Securitize has agreed to merge with Cantor Equity Partners II, a Nasdaq-listed special purpose acquisition company, in a deal that would position it as one of the few publicly traded companies focused primarily on tokenized securities and real-world assets. Shares of CEPT rose 5% on Wednesday.

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Why Bitwise CIO Thinks Investors Are Mispricing Hyperliquid and HYPE Token

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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan described Hyperliquid as one of the most important crypto projects to emerge in recent years.

He believes that investors continue to underestimate both the platform’s long-term impact and the valuation of its native HYPE token.

Growth Trajectory

In a recent memo, Hougan said Hyperliquid has evolved beyond a crypto perpetual futures exchange into a financial “super-app” offering exposure to multiple asset classes, including commodities, S&P 500 futures, pre-IPO stocks, and prediction markets. According to Hougan, the platform’s growth has been driven in part by the regulatory environment emerging under SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, whose November 2025 remarks supported the development of multi-asset trading platforms operating outside conventional SEC structures.

The Bitwise exec noted that Hyperliquid now derives nearly half of its trading volume from non-crypto assets and claimed the figure could rise to 70% by year-end. Despite the platform remaining unavailable to US users, he described it as “one of the fastest-growing financial businesses” he has seen, while citing approximately $170 billion in monthly trading volume.

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Hougan also stated that Hyperliquid represents a “Gen 2” token designed from Day 1 to accrue value, as he highlighted the platform’s reported policy of directing 99% of trading fees toward buying back HYPE tokens. This is very different from tokens launched during former chair Gary Gensler’s tenure. Hougan explained that those “governance tokens” that had little or no economic tie to the underlying blockchain or application, as they sought to remove any expectation of profit.

“In the future, I suspect this will be the norm for token design. In the meantime, it’s one of the reasons Hyperliquid is the best-performing large-cap crypto asset in the world over the past year.”

Hougan further claimed HYPE is currently one of the most mispriced assets in crypto due to category as well as anchoring error.

Institutional Momentum

His comments come days after 21Shares rolled out the first US spot ETF tracking Hyperliquid’s token under the THYP ticker. Bitwise followed suit with another exchange-traded fund tracking HYPE, under the ticker BHYP on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

While other leading crypto assets continue to struggle, HYPE is leading the market rally. Over the past week alone, the token has amassed over 25% in gains.

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Pi Network tops $0.1500 following mainnet upgrade

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PI drops below the $0.1700 level.
PI drops below the $0.1700 level.

Key takeaways

  • PI has reclaimed the $0.1500 level after dropping below this critical area on Tuesday.
  • The positive performance comes following the mainnet upgrade. 

Pi Network has reversed its downward trend on Wednesday, climbing above the $0.1500 level following a major infrastructure upgrade to its mainnet nodes. 

At press time, PI traded around $0.1518, extending recent losses while technical indicators hinted at the possibility of a short-term rebound.

Pi Core team completes major mainnet upgrade

The Pi Core Team announced that major mainnet nodes have successfully upgraded to Stellar protocol version 23, reflecting the project’s reliance on the Stellar blockchain infrastructure.

The update also included several backend improvements, such as migrating the operating system from Ubuntu 20 to Ubuntu 24 and upgrading the database engine from PostgreSQL 12 to PostgreSQL 16.

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The latest upgrade is aimed at improving network performance, security, and long-term scalability as the ecosystem continues to evolve.

PI price outlook: Technical indicators suggest a possible recovery

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is still bearish and efficient as PI has underperformed over the past few days.

The bearish performance comes despite the infrastructure progress. The token is currently trading below both the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.1605 and the 200-period EMA around $0.1709, maintaining a broader bearish outlook.

However, momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be weakening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 29, signaling oversold conditions while also forming a positive divergence as price approaches Tuesday’s low of $0.1463.

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This type of divergence often points to a potential reversal or short-term bounce. If buying momentum increases, PI could attempt to retest a descending trendline resistance near $0.1519.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains flat below the zero line, indicating fading bearish momentum but not yet confirming a bullish recovery.

PI/USD 4H Chart

A successful breakout above the $0.1519 resistance level could open the door for a stronger recovery toward the 50-EMA at $0.1605, followed by the 200-EMA near $0.1709.

On the downside, the recent low at $0.1463 remains a critical support zone. A daily close below that level could invalidate rebound expectations and potentially trigger additional downside pressure for Pi Network.

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Zcash (ZEC) Explodes 90% in a Month: Bull Trap or Major Rally Ahead?

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Many leading altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Solana (SOL), have headed south over the past 30 days, moving in step with the market’s predominantly bearish tone.

However, Zcash (ZEC) has defied the overall pullback, posting a roughly 90% price increase during this period.

How Much Higher?

The privacy coin ZEC was the talk of the town towards the end of last year when its price surged from mere $50 to over $700 in a matter of two months. Back then, though, the entire crypto market was booming (even if Zcash was among the standout performers), whereas the recent surge appears far more unexpected.

Earlier this month, the token’s valuation briefly exceeded $630 before slightly retreating to the current $585 (according to CoinGecko’s data). Its market capitalization neared $10 billion, making ZEC the 14th-biggest cryptocurrency after flipping Cardano (ADA) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). One factor that could have played a role in the ascent is the overall uptrend in privacy coins, with Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) also well in the green on a monthly scale.

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Somewhat expected, crypto X is once again rammed with users envisioning further gains for ZEC. CryptoJack, for example, claimed that the asset has broken out of a descending channel, suggesting it could be starting a major move up.

Sjuul | AltCryptoGems and JAVON MARKS also gave their two cents. The former said ZEC looks “pretty bullish” as it’s potentially breaking out of a bull flag. JAVON MARKS noted the token’s strong progress and forecasted a possible rise above $700.

A Desired Correction?

Contrary to the bullish predictions made by the aforementioned market observers, ZEC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the asset may cool off in the near term. The technical analysis tool ranges from 0 to 100, with ratios above 70 signaling that the coin is overbought and due for a potential pullback. On the other hand, readings below 30 are often considered buying opportunities. ZEC’s RSI briefly spiked beyond 80, while now it stands at roughly 66.

ZEC RSI
ZEC RSI, Source: CryptoWaves

Such a correction, though, seems to be something that certain analysts would actually welcome. Altcoin Sherpa, for instance, said they want to hop on the bandwagon should the price drop to $470 or even lower.

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Bitcoin stays around $77K after 200-day moving average rejection

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Bitcoin drops below $77k
Bitcoin drops below $77k

Key takeaways

  • BTC remains around the $77k level after rejecting the 200-day moving average.
  • The bearish performance comes as rising inflation and Treasury yields weigh on risk sentiment.

Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 earlier on Wednesday after failing to break above the 200-day moving average near $82,000, as rising inflation and tighter macroeconomic conditions weighed heavily on risk assets.

The decline comes after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data showed Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year. At the same time, rising oil prices and a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield have reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by December.

Bears continue to dominate the market

According to a report from K33 Research, Bitcoin’s rejection at the 200-day moving average mirrors patterns seen during previous market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022, when rapid rebounds were followed by sharp deleveraging-driven sell-offs.

K33 noted that those historical recoveries rebuilt trader confidence and leverage quickly, leaving markets vulnerable to aggressive corrections once momentum faded.

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“A core ingredient in the ensuing legs lower was the unwind of positions built up during the rally itself,” the report stated.

However, analysts emphasized that the current cycle differs in several important ways. Bitcoin took significantly longer to revisit the 200-day moving average after breaking below it, spending 189 days before retesting the level in May. That compares with 96 days in 2014, 132 days in 2018, and 85 days in 2022.

Derivatives data suggest traders remain cautious rather than excessively bullish. Funding rates have stayed negative for 81 consecutive days, while options market skews are hovering near yearly highs, indicating persistent defensive positioning.

Institutional flows have presented a mixed picture. Global Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded their largest weekly outflow of the year last week, totaling 24,303 BTC. The figure marked the ninth-largest five-day outflow since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

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K33 noted that selling pressure intensified as Bitcoin approached the average ETF cost basis, a level that has historically triggered elevated outflows.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC consolidates around $77,000

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering near $77200, slightly above the 50-day EMA at $76,743 and the 100-day EMA at $76,867. 

However, the broader trend remains constrained by the 200-day EMA at $81,845, which continues to act as a strong overhead resistance level.

This positioning suggests that while short-term buyers are attempting to stabilize price action, longer-term trend signals have yet to confirm a bullish reversal.

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Technical indicators point to declining bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting toward the mid-40s, indicating weakening buying pressure without yet reaching oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in negative territory, reinforcing the view that recent upward moves have lost strength following the prior rally attempt.

If the rally resumes, immediate resistance is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally around $78,962. A breakout above this zone would be needed to challenge higher levels.

BTC/USD 4H Chart

However, if the selloff continues, initial support is anchored by the 50-day EMA at $76,743. A break below this level could expose Bitcoin to further losses toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74,487.

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Deeper support lies near the reclaimed trendline around $70,785, with the 23.6% retracement level at $68,950 acting as a final key cushion for the current structure.

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