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Benjamin Cowen Reveals Why The Altcoin Season Never Came

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Benjamin Cowen Reveals Why The Altcoin Season Never Came

For most of 2025, altcoin holders were waiting. Watching Bitcoin climb to a new all-time high near $126,000, they expected what had always followed — the familiar rotation, the altcoin surge, the season that rewards patience with explosive gains. It never came.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, wasn’t surprised. He had a name for what was happening, and it changed everything.

“This is a cycle where Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria.”

That single phrase explains more about the 2025 cycle than any price target or on-chain metric. And to understand why, you need to follow the data across four charts — from social sentiment, through market structure, all the way to the deepest layers of the global macro economy.


The Top That Looked Normal, But Wasn’t

Bitcoin did exactly what it always does. It peaked in Q4 of the post-halving year, right on schedule, consistent with every prior four-year cycle. On the surface, nothing was broken. Look closer, however, and something was fundamentally different.

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Cowen’s Social Metrics Historical Risk chart tells the story visually. The chart color-codes Bitcoin’s price history by the level of social engagement at each point in time — warm colors (red, orange) for high engagement, cool colors (blue) for low.

In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin topped in a blaze of red and orange. Social interest was at peak levels. Retail was flooding in. Everyone was talking about crypto.

Social Metrics Historical Risk chart / Source: YouTube

In 2025, Bitcoin printed its all-time high in cold blue. Social engagement was near-historic lows at the exact moment the market reached its peak.

No retail frenzy or mainstream headlines are driving fresh money in. Just a quiet, almost invisible top — what Benjamin Cowen defines as apathy.

“In 2017 and 2021 we topped on euphoria and because we topped on euphoria there was a rotation into the higher risk assets — altcoins. But when you top on apathy you don’t get that same rotation.”

The only other time this happened was in 2019. That observation is where everything begins.

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Benjamin Cowen: Why Apathy Kills the Altcoin Season

In a euphoric cycle, the sequence is predictable. Bitcoin tops, early investors take profits, and that capital rotates into higher-risk assets — altcoins. The crowd, still buzzing with excitement, chases the next opportunity. Alt season follows almost mechanically.

Apathy breaks that sequence entirely. When Bitcoin tops on indifference rather than excitement, there is no crowd waiting to rotate.

The retail wave that normally fuels altcoin rallies simply never arrived. And without new buyers entering the market, altcoins have nowhere to go but down.

Cowen puts it with characteristic bluntness:

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“But when you top on apathy, like in 2019, you don’t get that rotation. And the reason you don’t get that rotation is that there’s just no one left to sell the altcoins to.”

The consequence is visible in the altcoin total market cap chart. Rather than the sharp post-Bitcoin rotation that altcoin holders were expecting, the chart shows something more painful — a slow, relentless bleed. Altcoins losing ground to Bitcoin not just in the bear market, but throughout the entire cycle, both during the bull run and after it ended.

TOTAL3 vs Bitcoin Dominance Chart. Source: YouTube

This is not a coincidence or bad luck. It is a direct consequence of the macro environment in which this cycle occurred.


The Macro Context: 2019 and 2025 Show the Same Story

Most crypto analysts treat Bitcoin as its own ecosystem, governed purely by halving cycles and on-chain mechanics. Benjamin Cowen argues that it is only half the picture.

The global business cycle — the broader rhythm of economic expansion, late-cycle stress, and recession — shapes not when Bitcoin tops, but how investors behave when it does.

His Business Cycles chart, built by normalizing a composite of S&P 500 performance, unemployment, interest rates, inflation, and M2 money supply, makes the argument visually.

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From Bitcoin’s earliest days through approximately 2019, the macro environment was in an early business cycle phase — the long recovery following the 2008 financial crisis. Risk appetite was structurally high. Investors were willing to climb the risk ladder, moving from equities to Bitcoin to altcoins.

Business Cycles M2-Normalized chart / Source: YouTube

In a late business cycle environment, that risk appetite reverses. Investors don’t reach for more risk — they pull back from it. They consolidate into quality. In crypto terms, that means Bitcoin, not altcoins. It explains why, in both 2019 and 2025, altcoins bled to Bitcoin even as Bitcoin itself was still rising. The macro environment was actively working against the rotation altcoin holders had been counting on.

“The reason why this cycle feels different is because this is a late business cycle environment. And the only other time we had a late business cycle environment where altcoins bled out to Bitcoin even after Bitcoin topped without a rotation was actually in that 2019 phase.”

The Liquidity Risk chart adds a second layer of confirmation. With liquidity risk currently sitting at 0.789 — firmly in the “Very Tight” zone — the conditions mirror those of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2018-2019 period almost precisely. Tight liquidity environments are not environments where investors chase speculative assets. They are environments where capital retreats to safety.

Liquidity Risk chart / Source: YouTube

The symmetry between 2019 and 2025 goes deeper still. In 2019, Bitcoin topped in June — two months before quantitative tightening ended in August. In 2025, Bitcoin topped in October — two months before quantitative tightening ended in December. Same pattern, same spacing, larger scale.

“What’s happening now is just a larger version of what happened in 2019. It just happens to all line up.”


What Comes Next for Benjamin Cowen

The 2019 parallel is not a perfect map, but it is the most honest one available. The four-year cycle remains intact — Bitcoin tops when it always tops, and it will bottom when it historically bottoms, approximately one year after the peak. That places the base case for a cycle low in October 2026.

What this cycle has revealed, more clearly than any before it, is that the crypto market does not exist in isolation. The business cycle, liquidity conditions, and investor risk appetite are not background noise — they are the environment in which every crypto decision plays out. In an early cycle, rising risk appetite carries altcoins higher.

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In a late cycle, retreating risk appetite leaves them behind.

Benjamin Cowen’s thesis is not a bearish call for its own sake. It is a framework for understanding why this cycle felt different — and why, for those who understood the macro context, it was never really a surprise.

The altcoin season didn’t fail. It was never going to arrive. Not in this environment. Not in this cycle.

The post Benjamin Cowen Reveals Why The Altcoin Season Never Came appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Worldcoin (WLD) Plunges 13% After World 4.0 Launch with Major Tech Partnerships

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • WLD declined 13.4% to reach $0.28 on Friday while the wider cryptocurrency market gained 2.2%
  • World announced a comprehensive overhaul of its World ID platform, branding it as “full-stack proof of human” technology
  • Platform partnerships expanded to include Zoom, Docusign, and Tinder with availability extending to American users
  • The Orb technology captures iris biometrics to establish unique digital identities while avoiding personal data retention
  • Strategic collaborators also encompass Amazon Web Services, Shopify, Coinbase, Razer, and Reddit

The Worldcoin (WLD) cryptocurrency experienced a 13.4% decline to $0.28 on Friday, April 17, coinciding with World’s announcement of a significant identity verification platform enhancement and numerous new strategic partnerships.

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Worldcoin (WLD) Price

This downturn occurred against the backdrop of a 2.2% rally in the overall cryptocurrency sector, fueled by developments around US-Iran diplomatic progress and the resumption of Strait of Hormuz operations.

World, launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman as co-founder, convened a presentation in San Francisco unveiling “World 4.0.” This advancement establishes World ID as comprehensive “full-stack proof of human” architecture designed for individual users, commercial entities, and artificial intelligence systems.

The technology relies on the Orb apparatus, which captures facial and iris biometric data in-person to create a distinctive cryptographic identifier. Captured imagery undergoes immediate deletion following processing, with exclusively anonymized information distributed through a decentralized infrastructure.

Daniel Shorr, a senior executive, stated during the presentation: “World 4.0 is powerful, scalable and open. In the age of AI, being human will be incredibly valuable and the internet will want to know you’re human.”

Sam Altman remarked: “World ID is on the way to being a real human network for the internet.”

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The platform enhancement introduces account-based verification, multiple key functionality, and credential recovery mechanisms. World simultaneously released a standalone World ID application, presently in beta testing, enabling users to control and distribute their authentication credentials across various services.

Major Platform Collaborations

Zoom, the video conferencing service, is incorporating World’s “Deep Face” technology to authenticate that conference attendees are genuine individuals rather than AI-generated deepfakes. Docusign, the electronic signature provider, is implementing World ID authentication within its digital document execution process.

The dating application Tinder is extending its World ID “verified human” certification to users throughout the United States. World additionally introduced a “Concert Kit” solution designed to assist musicians in allocating tickets to authentic individuals, eliminating automated scalping operations.

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Gaming sector alliances with Razer and Mythical Games were revealed, while Reddit confirmed its evaluation of World’s capabilities for automated account detection.

Business Solutions and AI Integration

For enterprise applications, World is collaborating with Okta, Vercel, and Browserbase. These partnerships focus on establishing verification frameworks for automated business processes.

World unveiled “AgentKit,” a development platform connecting artificial intelligence agents to authenticated human credentials. Coinbase previously disclosed in March its intention to utilize AgentKit for its x402 AI micropayment infrastructure.

Additional established collaborators include Amazon Web Services, Shopify, Browserbase, Exa, and VanEck.

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Certain observers have expressed apprehension regarding the mass collection of biometric information, especially when centralized under a single corporate entity.

WLD serves as the indigenous cryptocurrency of the World Network, distributed as compensation for identity authentication and utilized for transactional operations throughout its platform.

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Circle (CRCL) Stock: New Native USDC Bridge Simplifies Cross-Chain Transfers

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CRCL Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Circle introduced USDC Bridge, a user-friendly interface powered by its Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) for seamless native USDC movement
  • The platform employs a burn-and-mint system that avoids wrapped or bridged token variants
  • Transaction costs are transparent upfront with automated gas handling; transferring $20 from Ethereum to Optimism runs approximately $0.20
  • The bridge works with a minimum of 17 EVM-compatible networks from day one, featuring Ethereum, Base, Polygon, and Monad
  • A class action lawsuit targeting Circle seeks damages for approximately $230 million in USDC transferred via CCTP after the Drift Protocol breach on April 1

On Friday, Circle rolled out USDC Bridge, a straightforward cross-chain transfer solution constructed on its established Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP). The initiative aims to streamline and demystify the process of transferring USDC across different blockchain networks for regular users.

CCTP debuted in April 2023. The protocol currently processes more than $500 million in daily USDC transactions and received a comprehensive V2 upgrade in the previous year.

This new bridge provides users with an intuitive interface for direct CCTP engagement. Until now, CCTP was primarily utilized by developers and technically sophisticated users — the updated UI democratizes access to a much broader user base.

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CRCL Stock Card
Circle Internet Group, CRCL

USDB Bridge operates through a 1:1 burn-and-mint mechanism. Tokens are destroyed on the originating blockchain and created natively on the receiving network, eliminating any wrapped token intermediaries.

Transaction costs are displayed upfront before users finalize their transfers. The protocol automatically manages destination chain gas requirements, eliminating a traditionally confusing element for less experienced users.

According to testing conducted by a The Block journalist, moving $20 in USDC from Ethereum’s mainnet to Optimism carried a fee of roughly $0.20. Cost structures fluctuate based on specific transaction parameters.

Circle doesn’t impose proprietary fees for CCTP usage. Users still encounter standard network gas charges on both source and destination blockchains, with expedited “fast” transactions potentially incurring premium costs.

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Supported Blockchain Networks

At its initial deployment, USDC Bridge accommodates at least 17 EVM-compatible blockchain platforms. The roster includes Ethereum, Avalanche, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Polygon, Sonic, Monad, Sei, and World Network.

While CCTP itself maintains compatibility with an expanded network selection that encompasses Solana, Sui, and Aptos, USDC Bridge currently restricts functionality to EVM-compatible environments, temporarily excluding non-EVM alternatives.

Circle natively deploys USDC across numerous blockchain networks and on specific platforms like Polymarket. USDC maintains its position as the stablecoin sector’s second-largest asset by market capitalization.

Cross-chain bridging infrastructure has historically represented a significant pain point within cryptocurrency. Complex user interfaces, opaque fee structures, and cumbersome multi-step processes have hindered widespread adoption — especially among newcomers. Circle frames USDC Bridge as a refined alternative addressing these persistent challenges.

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Legal Action Filed Following CCTP Security Incident

The bridge launch follows closely behind Circle being served with a class action lawsuit. The complaint, filed on Wednesday, concerns approximately $230 million in USDC that transacted through CCTP in the aftermath of the April 1 Drift Protocol security breach.

Over 100 plaintiffs have joined the legal action, with representation provided by law firm Mira Gibb. Circle faces allegations of aiding and abetting conversion alongside negligence charges for failing to freeze the compromised assets. Final damage amounts will be established during trial proceedings.

Circle has yet to issue a comprehensive public statement addressing the lawsuit’s specifics.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Surges Past $78K as Iran Reopens Hormuz Strait Amid Peace Talks

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Key Takeaways

  • BTC climbed above $78,000 for the first time in over two months following Iran’s announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz
  • Iran’s top diplomat announced that commercial shipping traffic can now pass freely during the ceasefire
  • President Trump indicated that negotiations between the US and Iran are nearly finalized with core elements agreed upon
  • Crude oil prices plummeted approximately 10% to roughly $85 per barrel following the announcement
  • Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted $664 million in net capital on April 17, marking the fourth consecutive day of positive flows

Bitcoin exploded beyond the $78,000 threshold on Friday, April 17, marking its strongest price level since the beginning of February. The rally was triggered after Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced via X that the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains “completely open” to commercial shipping traffic throughout the duration of the existing ceasefire agreement.

President Donald Trump validated the development through his Truth Social platform, stating that negotiations to resolve the US-Israel-Iran conflict are “mostly complete.” He indicated that fundamental components have been agreed upon, with the remaining issues anticipated to be settled within the weekend.

Bitcoin reached an intraday peak of $78,343, representing approximately 4.1% growth within the trading session. Throughout the week, BTC recovered around 5%, based on information from CoinMarketCap and TradingView.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Alternative digital assets experienced similar upward momentum. Ethereum appreciated 3.3% while XRP advanced 2.4%, contributing to a widespread risk-on sentiment throughout international markets.

Brent crude oil contracts declined roughly 10% to approximately $85 per barrel. The S&P 500 index also rallied, accumulating $7 trillion in market value during the previous three weeks, as noted by The Kobeissi Letter.

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Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows and Corporate Accumulation

Wu Blockchain disclosed on X that US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $664 million in net capital on April 17, representing the fourth consecutive session of positive inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $127 million, continuing a seven-day streak of inflows.

Bitcoin Archive shared on X that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has continuously accumulated Bitcoin for eight consecutive trading sessions, acquiring $284 million worth on April 17 exclusively. BlackRock’s cumulative purchases have reached $1.34 billion across the eight-day period.

Strategy Inc. has additionally accumulated $2.6 billion in Bitcoin during the past two weeks. Strategy’s stock price surged as much as 16% on Friday, representing its largest single-session increase since February 6.

Coinbase Global shares climbed as much as 8% while Galaxy Digital appreciated over 10% during the same trading session.

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Traditional Finance Enters Crypto

Goldman Sachs submitted documentation for a Bitcoin ETF this week, representing its initial direct entry into cryptocurrency investment products. Charles Schwab revealed intentions to introduce spot cryptocurrency trading capabilities in 2026 and indicated that clients might consider allocating up to 8.8% of investment portfolios to Bitcoin.

Morgan Stanley introduced its proprietary Bitcoin-tracking ETF last week, establishing itself as the first major banking institution to launch such a product.

Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, characterized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as “the risk-on signal the global markets have been waiting for.”

Bohan Jiang, senior derivatives trader at FalconX, noted that Strategy’s accumulation strategy has provided market support throughout recent trading periods.

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Geopolitical Risks Persist

The current ceasefire agreement is scheduled to conclude on April 22. US authorities have indicated that the naval blockade will remain operational until a comprehensive agreement is finalized. Iran has issued warnings about potentially closing the Strait once more if the blockade persists.

Axios additionally reported that US officials are evaluating the release of up to $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets in return for Iran relinquishing its enriched uranium inventory.

Derivatives market indicators suggest traders maintain a cautious stance. Funding rates for perpetual futures contracts registered negative on Friday. Put options positioned at $60,000 and $50,000 strike prices are commanding substantial premiums, reflecting hedging behavior.

Polymarket participants assessed the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 during this month at 65% as of Friday, April 17.

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Circle Launches USDC Bridge For Native Cross-Chain Transfers

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Circle Launches USDC Bridge For Native Cross-Chain Transfers

Stablecoin issuer Circle has launched USDC Bridge, a new user interface built on top of the Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) that seeks to simplify native cross-chain transfers of the USDC stablecoin.

On Friday, Circle’s USDC X account said the bridge allows users to move the USDC (USDC) stablecoin in a “predictable, transparent way,” citing a native burn-and-mint transfer mechanism and no bridge complexities.

Gas fees will be handled automatically, fees will be shown upfront, and live status updates will be provided throughout the transfer, Circle added.

Source: Circle

The USDC Bridge builds on Circle’s CCTP, which was introduced in April 2023 and facilitates hundreds of millions of stablecoin transfers each day.

CCTP eliminated the need for wrapped and synthetic versions of USDC.

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Cross-chain bridges seek to make the broader crypto ecosystem interoperable, functioning as a unified network rather than a collection of fragmented, isolated blockchains.

Making bridges as simple and easy to use as possible has been an area of focus for many crypto infrastructure firms. 

In the past, bridges have confused users and arguably slowed crypto adoption, especially for beginners struggling to navigate bridge interfaces, trade routes and gas fees.

USDC Bridge supports over a dozen blockchains

Cointelegraph found that USDC Bridge supports USDC transfers between at least 17 Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible blockchains, including Ethereum, Avalanche, Arbitrum, Base, Monad, Optimism, Polygon, Sonic and World Network.

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Related: Ukraine arrests FBI-wanted cybercrime suspect, seizes $11M in assets

Circle’s CCTP supports a broader number of blockchains, including Solana, Sui and Aptos, which are not natively EVM compatible.

On Wednesday, Circle was hit with a class action for failing to freeze around $230 million worth of USDC that moved through its CCTP from the Drift Protocol exploit on April 1.

Circle is accused of aiding and abetting conversion and negligence. 

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More than 100 members are involved in the class action. The law firm representing them, Mira Gibb, is seeking damages, with the final amount to be determined at trial.

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