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Bitcoin Options Market Hits Highest Defensive Levels Since 2021, VanEck Report Shows

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, its highest reading since China banned mining in June 2021. 
  • Put premiums relative to BTC spot volume hit an all-time high of 4 basis points, tripling mid-2022 levels.
  • Historical data shows D9 skew decile has produced average 90-day BTC returns of +13.2%, the strongest of all deciles.
  • Aggregate miner BTC balances sit at 684,000 BTC, with miners selling nearly all newly issued supply over the past year.

Bitcoin markets entered a consolidation phase following a sharp price drawdown in early 2026. VanEck’s mid-March Bitcoin ChainCheck report reveals deeply defensive positioning across derivatives markets.

The put/call open interest ratio reached its highest level since June 2021. Realized volatility dropped from 80 to 50, while futures funding rates fell to 2.7%. Onchain activity declined broadly as miner revenues came under pressure.

Bitcoin Options Positioning Reflects Elevated Demand for Downside Protection

Bitcoin options markets are showing an unusual level of caution among investors. The put/call open interest ratio peaked at 0.84 and averaged 0.77 over the past month.

This places the metric in the 91st percentile of all observations recorded since mid-2019. The last time the ratio reached these levels was June 2021, when China banned Bitcoin mining.

Total put premiums over the past 30 days reached approximately $685 million. That figure represents a 24% decline month-over-month, yet it still exceeds 77% of monthly readings since early 2025.

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Relative to spot volume, put premiums hit an all-time high of roughly 4 basis points. This is about three times the levels seen after the Terra/Luna collapse in mid-2022.

Meanwhile, call option premiums fell roughly 12% to around $562 million. This decline further confirms a broad shift toward protective positioning in the market.

Total options open interest still rose 3% month-over-month to $33.4 billion. Futures leverage, however, remained subdued throughout the period.

VanEck’s report also examined the put/call premiums paid ratio, which reached 2.0 for the 30-day period ending March 3, 2026. Implied volatility on puts averaged around 66, sitting approximately 16 points above realized volatility.

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Historically, skew readings at this decile have preceded average 90-day Bitcoin returns of +13.2%. Average 360-day returns from similar readings came in at +133.2%.

Onchain Activity and Miner Economics Show Broad Pressure

Onchain network activity declined across nearly every major metric over the past month. Transfer volume fell 31%, while total daily fees dropped 27%.

Daily active addresses declined 5%, and mean transaction fees fell by 40%. Transaction count was the only category that posted a modest increase.

A growing share of Bitcoin trading now occurs through ETPs, derivatives, and centralized exchanges. As a result, traditional onchain metrics may no longer capture total market activity accurately.

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This shift makes it harder to use network data alone as a sentiment indicator. The trend reflects Bitcoin’s increasing financialization across institutional markets.

On the miner side, total revenues declined 11% over the past month. Mining equities fell roughly 7%, pointing to weaker profitability across the sector.

Miner outflows to exchanges rose only 1% in Bitcoin terms. Most operators appear to be managing reserves carefully rather than liquidating holdings.

Aggregate miner balances currently sit at approximately 684,000 BTC, down only 0.5% year-over-year. Over the same period, roughly 164,000 new BTC were mined and effectively sold.

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Long-term holder transfer volume declined across every age cohort during the period. Active long-term Bitcoin supply also edged down from 31% to 30%.

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Crypto World

STRC trading surge drives record volume and signals largest bitcoin purchase since launch

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Strategy’s STRC maintains dividend at 11.5% after steady increases

Stretch (STRC), the perpetual preferred security sold by Strategy (MSTR) to fund its bitcoin purchases, posted record trading volume on Monday, funding the biggest single-day buying splurge through the company’s at-the-market (ATM) program.

The world’s largest publicly traded bitcoin holder is estimated to have added 7,800 BTC, according STRC.live, as STRC volume surged to $1.16 billion, more than four times the 30-day average of $278 million.

This comes after Strategy purchased $1 billion worth of bitcoin last week, funded entirely by STRC, which offers an 11.5% annual dividend, paid monthly in cash. The stock maintained its $100 par value throughout the entire trading session.

Historically, the trading day preceding the ex-dividend date, the cutoff date after which new buyers are no longer entitled to the next dividend payment, tends to see the highest trading volume. That’s Wednesday, so it’s possible trading on Tuesday may be even higher than Monday’s record.

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STRC now has a market capitalization of $6.4 billion, exceeding the combined market cap of the company’s other preferred securities, including STRD at $1.1 billion, STRK at $1 billion, and STRF at $1.2 billion, according to the MSTR dashboard.

The common stock rose 2.9% on Monday and was 3.7% higher in pre-market trading.

Read More: The one metric investors are overlooking in Michael Saylor’s Strategy

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Hyperliquid (HYPE) price continues to surge, targeting $50 Mark

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Toncoin (TON) price heavily oversold as Telegram introduces Vaults in TON Wallet

Key takeaways

  • Hyperliquid is up 8% in the last 24 hours, maintaining its position in the top 10.
  • The coin could rally towards the $50 psychological level if the bullish sentiment persists.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) continues its upward momentum, trading above $44 as of Tuesday after an 8% surge on the previous day. With strengthening on-chain data, favorable derivatives metrics, and technical analysis pointing to further gains, the outlook for HYPE remains bullish, with a target of $50 in sight.

Bullish Sentiment Backed by On-Chain and Derivatives Metrics

On-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests a strong buy-side dominance in both Hyperliquid’s spot and futures markets, with cooling conditions indicating a favorable environment for a potential price rise. The market shows mostly neutral conditions across other metrics, reinforcing the possibility of an upside move.

On the derivatives front, CoinGlass data reveals that HYPE’s futures Open Interest (OI) has surged to $1.96 billion on Tuesday, up from $1.5 billion on April 3. This steady rise in OI points to new capital entering the market, which could propel HYPE’s price higher. This is the highest level of futures OI seen since early November.

Moreover, CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for HYPE stands at 1.04, signaling a predominantly bullish sentiment in the market, as more traders expect the price to rally.

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Price Forecast: HYPE bulls target $50

The HYPE/USD 4-hour chart is extremely bullish and efficient. HYPE’s price has extended its gains, surpassing the March high of $43.75 and reaching above $44 on Tuesday. If the upward trend continues, HYPE could target the October 30 high of $50.15.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is currently at 69, indicating strong bullish momentum as it moves toward overbought territory. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator recently showed a bullish crossover on April 10, further supporting a positive outlook for HYPE.

Should HYPE experience a pullback, it could find support near the psychological $40 level. However, the prevailing market conditions suggest a strong potential for further upside, with $50 being the next major resistance.

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Lib Dems Urge FCA Probe into Farage Over Stack BTC Bitcoin Promotion

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Lib Dems Urge FCA Probe into Farage Over Stack BTC Bitcoin Promotion

UK Liberal Democrats have urged the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to investigate Nigel Farage’s ties to Bitcoin treasury company Stack BTC after it disclosed a 37 Bitcoin purchase and published promotional material featuring the Reform UK leader, who is also a shareholder.

In a letter to the FCA, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper asked the regulator to investigate whether Farage breached market rules by appearing in a promotional video for Stack BTC while holding a financial stake in the company.

“The FCA must investigate whether Farage’s plans to cash in on Crypto could potentially amount to market abuse and a conflict of interest,” she wrote, adding that “we cannot allow political leaders to treat the financial markets like a personal piggy bank to potentially line their own pockets.”

Stack BTC said Monday that it purchased 37 Bitcoin (BTC) for roughly $2.7 million as part of its treasury strategy. In a video tied to the purchase, Farage said that a Bitcoin treasury company cannot exist without holding Bitcoin.

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The scrutiny adds to questions over the intersection of crypto and UK politics as Farage deepens his involvement with Stack BTC and lawmakers push for tighter rules on digital asset donations to political parties. An FCA spokesperson told Cointelegraph that they will “review the letter and respond directly.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Stack BTC for comment, but had not received a response by publication.

Related: UK sanctions $20B scam market by cutting ‘legitimate’ crypto ties

Farage deepens ties to Stack BTC

Farage, leader of Reform UK, has recently deepened his relationship with Stack BTC. In March, he disclosed a $286,000 equity investment in the company, acquiring a 6.31% stake in the company through his media vehicle Thorn In The Side.

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Stack BTC, chaired by former UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, holds over 68 BTC purchased at an average cost of $72,400 per coin, according to its website.

Cooper’s letter also references the record 9 million British pounds (about $12 million) donation to Reform UK from early crypto investor Christopher Harborne and Farage’s push for crypto-friendly policies.

“Taken together, these facts beg the question whether Mr Farage is promoting cryptocurrencies through his political platform in order to inflate crypto values for his own financial benefit, as well as that of his party and his inner circle of donors,” she wrote.

Source: Daisey Cooper

Related: UK lawmakers seek moratorium on crypto donations to political parties

UK moves to ban crypto political donations

Last month, the Rycroft Review recommended a moratorium on cryptocurrency donations to political parties, warning they could open the door to foreign financial interference in UK elections. The UK government moved forward with the proposal, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer stating the government will impose a temporary ban on crypto donations until stronger safeguards are in place.

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Several members of parliament, including the chair of the security committee, have been pushing for a full ban this year.

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