Crypto World
Bitcoin treasury stocks have gone ice cold
Over the past 18 months, the vast majority of publicly traded companies that pivoted to a BTC treasury strategy have lost money since their initial purchase announcement.
Globally, nearly 200 public companies hold BTC, according to monitoring service Bitcoin Treasuries, although most have small market capitalizations.
Many adopted their digital asset treasury DAT during a brief mania in the summer of 2025.
By late July 2025, every new BTC treasury stock was trading below its highest price of the year, and the median drawdown was -52%. Things have only deteriorated since.
Many stocks have now declined more than 90% to date, and some are even delisted from trading entirely.
Even Protos’ generous analysis below, charting the 20 largest BTC treasury stocks which have disproportionate positive performance among their far more numerous peers, shows 12 losses.
The top 20 bitcoin treasury stocks since March 2025

Relative to 18 months ago, the majority of non-mining BTC treasury stocks have negative returns. Mining stocks are excluded here due to their continuous acquisition of BTC through energy-intensive operations and consistent sales of BTC to pay for their power, infrastructure, and personnel.
The price of BTC itself is roughly flat, up less than 3% over the same time span, which allows the chart to speak for itself.
The median 18-month return of this cohort of 20 stocks is roughly -18%.
Five of the 20 have lost more than half their starting value, including several nearly “pure play” BTC treasuries like Remixpoint and Genius Group that planned minimal business operations aside from BTC acquisition during their initial optimism.
If someone had invested an equal amount of money into all 20 stocks 18 months ago, their portfolio would be worth less than its starting value today.
Pure play BTC treasuries
Worse, the returns would be even more negative for pure play BTC stocks, given that the best performers of the cohort — Tesla (+59.8%), Galaxy Digital (+114%), and Norwegian industrial conglomerate Aker (+181%) — have diversified business operations that aided their outperformance for reasons unrelated to BTC.
As a general rule, the more the company-focused on BTC, the worse the stock performed.
Heavily BTC-focused companies like Fold Holdings lost 91% since March 2025, Exodus Movement lost 83%, and Strategy, Semler, Metaplanet, Remixpoint, and Genius Group each lost more than 40%.
Even Michael Saylor’s $85 billion Strategy, the market leader, has shed half of its common stock price over the past year.
The biggest winner over the past 18 months, Aker ASA, is up 182% despite its BTC unit, Seetee, holding just 0.4% of Aker’s total assets.
Read more: CHART: mNAV down across bitcoin treasury companies
Recalculating since initial announcement is (slightly) better
When Protos zoomed out to personalize the returns according to the date each of the 20 companies initially announced their first BTC buy, the picture tilted slightly more positive.
MicroStrategy (now Strategy) started the trend six years ago on August 11, 2020, with a $250 million BTC purchase.
Its common stock hit a split-adjusted high of $14.54 that day, and is up over 1,000% since, the group’s largest winner.
Boyaa Interactive disclosed its first 1,100-BTC purchase on January 26, 2024, and its stock up 456% in dollar terms since.
Over in Japan, hotel operator Metaplanet approved a BTC pivot in April 2024, and its stock is up 476% in dollar terms since.
Of the 20 largest stocks, the post-announcement math splits almost evenly once currencies are converted. Exactly half of the 20 stocks have positive returns, and the median return is -15% across the cohort.
In summary, buying BTC with borrowed money and hoping the stock market would bid up the stock price has not proven to be a reliable strategy.
Although early rallies from Strategy and Metaplanet proved that there’s some speculative interest, most imitators have not been able to replicate their performances.
Protos has previously found that most new 2025 BTC treasury stocks were already down at least 50% within a few weeks of their initial announcements. The premium investors pay for these stocks has continued to fall over the past 18 months.
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Crypto World
Executives of the Year: Diogo Rau

Crypto World
Canadian Banking Giants Explore Tokenized Deposits
Canada’s six largest banks are jointly exploring a system for tokenized Canadian dollar deposits that would allow digital representations of bank deposits to move between financial institutions.
The initiative involves Bank of Montreal, CIBC, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, Scotiabank and TD Bank Group, according to a joint announcement from the banks on Tuesday. The first phase will focus on moving tokenized deposits between Canadian financial institutions before potentially connecting with other digital asset systems.
The project comes less than two weeks after Canada’s banking regulator provided additional clarity on the legal permissibility of tokenized deposits for financial institutions.
On Sept. 10, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) said tokenized deposits are “not legally distinct from traditional deposits,” adding that the underlying technology of a financial product does not determine its legal nature.

OSFI clarifies tokenized deposit rules. Source: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI)
Tokenized deposits represent money held at a regulated bank and remain a liability of that bank, unlike fiat-backed stablecoins, which are separate digital assets backed by reserves held by their issuer.
The banks said the system is intended to support faster and programmable payments, while longer-term plans include opening the initiative to other deposit-taking institutions. Cointelegraph contacted CIBC for additional details but did not receive an immediate response.
Related: Coinbase launches regulated crypto derivatives in Canada
Canada builds out stablecoin framework
The tokenized deposit initiative comes as Canada builds out a broader regulatory framework for digital money.
In March, Canada enacted its Stablecoin Act as part of Bill C-15, establishing a federal framework for fiat-backed stablecoins. Under the regime, non-financial institution issuers will be required to register with the Bank of Canada, maintain reserves of at least 1:1 in high-quality liquid assets and offer holders redemption at par. The framework is expected to take effect in 2027.
However, the framework only covers fiat-backed stablecoins issued by non-financial institutions. Banks and credit unions that are already subject to prudential regulation fall outside its scope. Issuers covered by the framework will also be prohibited from representing their stablecoins as deposits or as insured under a public deposit insurance system.
Magazine: Big Questions: Does Satoshi actually own 1.1 million Bitcoin?
Crypto World
Is the AI Slowdown Over? OpenAI and Anthropic Just Launched New Models
Anthropic and OpenAI launched new artificial intelligence (AI) models less than two hours apart on Tuesday. Both releases landed only 10 days after their chief executives publicly pushed for an AI slowdown.
This time, however, instead of pushing past their most powerful models, both cut prices instead, and Elon Musk who had also backed the AI slowdown initiative, congratulated Anthropic.
Anthropic Ships Opus 5.5 After Its AI Slowdown Call
Anthropic released Claude Opus 5.5 at 16:31 UTC. The company said the model matches its Claude Fable 5.1 on most tasks and costs 40% less to run than Opus 5.
That 40% figure comes from Anthropic’s own tests on typical workloads. List prices fell 20%, to $4 per million input tokens and $20 per million output tokens. Tokens are the chunks of text a model reads and writes, and developers pay per token.
Opus 5.5 is Anthropic’s first model since CEO Dario Amodei published an essay on September 12 urging labs to slow capability gains. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman agreed, and Musk wrote “Dario is right,” as BeInCrypto reported.
However, Amodei’s essay left room for new launches.
“…pacing does not mean halting model training or technical progress, but ensuring companies take adequate time to align and safeguard their models,” wrote Amodei.
Anthropic said outside testers METR and Frontier Design reviewed Opus 5.5 before release.
OpenAI Answers With Cheaper GPT-6 Sol and Luna
OpenAI introduced GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna at 18:12 UTC. Both are faster, lower-cost models built on GPT-6 Astra, which remains its flagship.
The company halved prices for developers. Sol now costs $2 per million input tokens, while Luna costs $0.10. Meanwhile, that 50% cut is measured against GPT-5.6 promotional pricing, not standard rates.
Paid ChatGPT users get both models today. Free users can try Luna in the desktop app.
Skeptics had questioned the slowdown pledge from the start. Investor Michael Burry called it self-serving IPO hype. Morgan Stanley, an Anthropic IPO underwriter, said the push changes nothing for spending.
Neither lab has said when it will ship a model above its current flagship.
The post Is the AI Slowdown Over? OpenAI and Anthropic Just Launched New Models appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Vijaye Raji Is one of TIME’s 2026 Executives of the Year: Tech and Data
OpenAI is split into three divisions. There is Research, where the frontier models are trained. There is Scaling and Infrastructure, which handles the massive computers this training relies on. And then there is Applications, which takes the product of these two groups’ work, “and then brings it to the people,” says Vijaye Raji, who is chief technology officer of the Applications division.
Raji leads key technical teams—such as data, experimentation, and growth—that help power ChatGPT and Codex, OpenAI’s coding tool, the use of which he says has made the company’s engineers “10 times more productive.” He is also responsible for the tech behind ChatGPT’s new ad program, which launched in February, and which reached $1 billion in annualized revenue in late August. Raji says OpenAI built the system in such a way that one model supplies answers, while a separate model supplies clearly-delineated ads. “We make sure that users never mistake what the model says [for] an ad,” he says. “We will always optimize for and prioritize user trust over anything else.”
Correction, September 22
The original version of this story misstated elements of Raji’s responsibilities as CTO. He does not lead engineering for ChatGPT and Codex; he leads key technical teams that help power those tools.
Disclosure: Investors in OpenAI include Salesforce, where TIME co-chair and owner Marc Benioff is CEO. OpenAI and TIME also have a licensing and technology agreement that allows OpenAI to access TIME’s archives.
Crypto World
Coinbase adds fixed-rate USDC loans backed by cbBTC
Coinbase has added fixed-rate USDC loans backed by cbBTC after its variable-rate borrowing service reached more than $1.4 billion in outstanding loans and nearly $3 billion in collateral.
Summary
- Coinbase customers can now choose between fixed-rate and variable-rate USDC loans backed by crypto.
- Fixed-rate loans set the interest rate and maturity when borrowers accept an onchain offer.
- Borrowers must repay before maturity, or lenders can claim the cbBTC securing the loan.
- Morpho Midnight runs the fixed-rate markets on Coinbase’s Base network.
Coinbase fixed-rate loans set costs in advance
Coinbase said the new borrowing option operates through Morpho Midnight, a fixed-rate and fixed-term lending protocol on Base. Customers pledge cbBTC as collateral and receive USDC without selling their bitcoin exposure.
Coinbase manages the customer interface, while Morpho supplies the lending protocol and Base processes the transactions. The product sits beside Coinbase’s existing integration with Morpho Blue, where interest rates change according to market conditions.
Unlike the variable-rate service, each Midnight loan establishes an interest rate and repayment date when the transaction begins. Lenders submit offers through an onchain order book, and borrowers select terms based on the available rates and maturities.
Coinbase currently offers maturities at the end of the current month or the following month. A company spokesperson said “End of Month” refers to the last Friday of the selected month.
Borrowers must return the USDC before the agreed date. If they miss the deadline, the lender can claim the cbBTC posted as collateral under the loan’s terms.
Fixed borrowing costs remove the possibility that an accepted loan’s interest rate will change before maturity. Variable-rate loans through Morpho Blue, by comparison, adjust as the amount of USDC supplied and borrowed changes.
“Coinbase Borrow gives our customers access to liquidity without having to sell their assets, and fixed-rate borrowing gives them even greater choice over how they manage that credit,” Coinbase yield and investments product lead Jacob Frantz said.
Morpho Midnight matches borrowers with lender offers
As crypto.news reported during the Midnight launch on Base, Morpho introduced the protocol in July to support fixed-rate loans with set maturities and negotiated terms.
Midnight uses an intent-based peer-to-peer system instead of placing every borrower into a pool with an automatically changing rate. Borrowers and lenders can set conditions that include the interest rate, maturity and counterparty requirements, according to Morpho.
Under the protocol’s offer-based design, lenders do not need to place funds into separate pools while waiting for a borrower. Morpho said their capital can remain in variable-rate markets until a fixed-rate offer is accepted, at which point the required liquidity moves into the matched loan.
Morpho Blue continues to handle Coinbase’s variable-rate product. More than $1.4 billion in loans remain outstanding through that service, secured by about $3 billion in collateral, according to the figures supplied with the announcement.
Across all integrations, Morpho Blue has approximately $5.2 billion in outstanding loans and $16 billion in deposits. Coinbase’s figures represent only the loans accessed through its interface rather than all activity on the protocol.
Midnight holds roughly $30 million in deposits during its initial rollout. Morpho has said the architecture may later support structured credit and lending against tokenized real-world assets, although any additional markets will depend on separate integrations.
Early use of fixed-rate markets has remained limited in some other Morpho deployments. Data from Sep. 18 showed that five Coinbase stock-backed lending markets had attracted $54,652 in USDC borrowing, all of it through variable-rate pools.
The same five stock tokens had 95 Midnight markets with different maturity dates, but none had outstanding fixed-rate loans at the time. Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia and Meta token markets were among the supported products, alongside a token tied to privately held SpaceX.
US borrowers gain another onchain credit structure
For eligible U.S. customers, Coinbase’s lending integration provides a way to access USDC while keeping bitcoin posted as collateral. Coinbase first brought the Morpho-powered model to most U.S. states in 2025, with New York excluded from the initial rollout.
When customers borrow against bitcoin, Coinbase converts the pledged asset into cbBTC and transfers it to a Morpho smart contract on Base. Coinbase describes cbBTC as an ERC-20 token backed one-for-one by bitcoin held in its custody.
The new fixed-rate structure changes the repayment conditions attached to that collateral. Existing variable loans have no fixed maturity date and can remain open while the position stays within its required collateral range. Fixed-term borrowers instead face a stated deadline, after which the lender gains the right to claim the collateral.
Collateral risk remains tied to the value of cbBTC. Morpho’s lending system uses loan-to-value limits, and positions can face liquidation if their debt rises past the permitted threshold relative to the collateral’s value. Price declines in bitcoin can therefore affect a borrower even when the interest rate itself remains fixed.
Coinbase has also built the opposite side of its onchain credit service by letting customers lend USDC through Morpho. During September, the exchange expanded USDC lending into Brazil, where eligible customers can deposit the stablecoin into a Steakhouse Financial-curated vault.
The Brazilian lending product uses variable returns generated by demand from Morpho borrowers. Coinbase said the service had attracted nearly $500 million in deposits, with users able to withdraw their USDC and accrued returns without a fixed lock-up period.
Coinbase adds loans beside stocks and IPO access
Beyond crypto lending, Coinbase has been adding securities products in selected markets. The exchange recently began providing eligible UK customers with access to almost 4,000 U.S. stocks, including fractional shares and purchases funded with pounds or USDC.
Trading is available 24 hours a day on weekdays during the phased rollout. Coinbase’s stock service gives UK users direct equity ownership, while its tokenized stock products on Base remain restricted to eligible investors outside the United States.
In the U.S., Coinbase has also opened retail IPO access through Coinbase Capital Markets, its Financial Industry Regulatory Authority-registered broker-dealer. The service started with smart-ring maker Oura’s offering and allows eligible customers to request shares before public trading begins.
Customers can submit conditional purchase offers after the expected price range becomes available. Coinbase then allocates the shares it receives from the selling group, meaning an investor may receive a full allocation, a partial allocation, or no shares when demand exceeds supply.
Crypto World
XLM price climbs as BVNK adds Stellar for global payments
Stellar’s XLM has risen 2.7% to $0.2135 after BVNK added the blockchain to its stablecoin payments platform, opening the network to business payments across more than 130 markets.
Summary
- BVNK has made Stellar available through its existing API for payments, payouts, remittances, and treasury transfers.
- CoinGecko data showed XLM trading at $0.2135, with a market value of about $7.46 billion and $403.3 million in daily volume.
- BVNK customers can use the new rail without building a separate blockchain connection or changing their current payment systems.
- The integration follows Mastercard’s acquisition of BVNK and a U.S. Bank test involving a proprietary dollar-backed stablecoin on Stellar.
BVNK announced the integration, saying customers can now access Stellar through the same API they use for the company’s other payment rails and digital assets.
Businesses can use the connection for cross-border payments, customer and supplier payouts, remittances and corporate treasury transfers. Since BVNK manages the blockchain connection within its platform, customers do not have to create a separate Stellar integration or replace their existing payment infrastructure.
The arrangement adds a network designed for fast and low-cost transfers to BVNK’s set of settlement options. Instead of selecting and maintaining separate connections for each blockchain, a business can route payments through the networks available within BVNK’s platform.
BVNK has opened Stellar across 130-plus markets
BVNK said the Stellar rail is available across more than 130 supported markets. Its platform connects conventional payment systems with stablecoins and other digital assets, allowing companies to move funds using a single technical connection.
According to BVNK, its payment infrastructure recorded $55.6 billion in volume during 2025 and processed 3.6 billion transactions. The company also reported 99.99% uptime and an average settlement time of about five seconds.
Kimberley Mescal Julien, head of partnerships at BVNK, said businesses should not have to operate separate connections for several blockchain networks. She described Stellar as another low-cost channel that customers can use to send money across borders through BVNK’s existing platform.
Adding a blockchain through one API can reduce the technical work required when companies enter another market or support a new asset. BVNK said customers would also be able to access more Stellar-native assets through the same connection if the company expands the offering.
The current announcement does not name any additional assets or provide a timetable for their introduction. Stellar supports the issuance and transfer of tokens on its network, including assets designed to track national currencies.
XLM price has gained alongside higher trading activity
CoinGecko data showed XLM at $0.2135 at the time of writing, representing a 2.7% increase over 24 hours and an 11.2% gain during the past week. The token traded between $0.2062 and $0.2198 during the daily period.
Daily trading volume stood at about $403.3 million, while XLM’s circulating market value reached roughly $7.46 billion. CoinGecko estimated that about 35 billion XLM were in circulation out of a maximum supply of approximately 50 billion tokens.
The token remained about 75.6% below its record price of $0.8756. CoinGecko calculates the quoted XLM price using a volume-weighted average drawn from 113 exchanges and 244 markets.
BVNK’s announcement supplies another commercial use case for the Stellar network, but it does not confirm how much payment volume will pass through the new rail. The company also did not disclose whether customers must hold XLM directly to use Stellar-based transfers.
Network adoption and token demand do not always move together because businesses may settle with stablecoins or other assets issued on a blockchain. A recent XLM assessment published by crypto.news noted that Stellar’s transaction activity does not automatically produce lasting demand for its native token.
The same report cited about $5.5 billion in stablecoin payment volume and more than $2.83 billion in tokenized real-world assets on Stellar as of June. It also noted that the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation planned to connect its tokenization service to Stellar, with live assets targeted for the first half of 2027.
Mastercard ownership adds scale to BVNK’s payment network
BVNK’s Stellar launch follows Mastercard’s completion of its acquisition of the stablecoin infrastructure company in August. The transaction valued BVNK at up to $1.8 billion and placed its blockchain payment technology within Mastercard’s global operation.
As reported after the acquisition, Mastercard bought BVNK to connect digital assets with traditional payment systems. The companies did not provide a detailed timetable for combining BVNK’s technology, licenses and customer relationships with Mastercard’s existing services.
Mastercard said in its Aug. 3 announcement that the purchase would support transfers between fiat money and digital currencies. The payment company also linked BVNK’s infrastructure with Mastercard Move, which provides money-transfer services across multiple currencies and markets.
BVNK continued operating its platform following the acquisition, and the Stellar connection shows the company adding blockchain rails under its new ownership. Its customers can access the network through the same technical setup they already use rather than waiting for a separate Mastercard product.
Before completing the purchase, Mastercard had worked with BVNK on digital-asset projects. BVNK was among more than 30 companies supporting Mastercard’s Agent Pay for Machines program, which was designed to let automated software conduct high-volume, low-value transactions through cards and stablecoins.
U.S. institutions are testing Stellar-based settlement
For U.S. businesses and XLM holders, the BVNK integration follows a live transaction conducted by U.S. Bank with its proprietary USBDC stablecoin. The bank moved funds between its entities in North America and Europe using Stellar.
The U.S. Bank pilot connected USBDC with the bank’s finance, risk, compliance, and operational systems. U.S. Bank’s Digital Asset Platform handled the token’s issuance, transfer and redemption while also testing freezing and clawback functions.
U.S. Bank described the transaction as a controlled test rather than a public stablecoin launch. It did not disclose the payment amount, transaction hash, settlement time or reserve structure behind USBDC, and the bank did not announce access for customers or outside financial institutions.
The transaction focused on an intercompany transfer between U.S. Bank entities rather than a consumer payment. According to the bank, the trial examined whether a dollar-backed token could support international transfers while remaining connected to established banking controls.
U.S. Bank said it was also studying liquidity management, collateral movement and cross-border treasury operations through its digital-asset platform. The bank did not provide dates for further tests or identify clients and payment corridors that could take part in any later trial.
Crypto World
Is Satoshi’s 1.1M BTC Wallet Real? Key Ownership Questions
Bitcoin’s origin story remains wrapped in mystery—even for the coins commonly linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. A recent on-chain transfer of roughly 600 BTC, mined in March 2010 and dormant for more than 16 years, reignited speculation that “Satoshi’s” stash may have finally moved. Yet blockchain evidence can trace holdings and spending patterns far more reliably than it can identify a specific individual.
According to Whale Alert, the 600 BTC transfer showed no direct connection to the widely discussed Satoshi holdings cluster. Meanwhile, blockchain research firm Bitquery examined the underlying block rewards and found that most of the relevant blocks did not cleanly match the distinctive mining pattern attributed to “Patoshi”—the name used for the suspected early-miner fingerprint associated with Satoshi. Together, the findings underline a key limitation: the chain records transactions, not who controls the keys at any given moment.
Key takeaways
- The 600 BTC moved after 16 years came from 12 old block rewards mined in March 2010, but the sender is not proven to be Satoshi.
- Whale Alert reported no connection between the 600 BTC transfer and the commonly tracked Satoshi-associated stash.
- Bitquery found that 10 of the 12 blocks did not match the “Patoshi” mining fingerprint, while the remaining two only weakly matched in a way that could occur by chance.
- Even if a mining pattern points to one early operator, it cannot confirm that the same person still controlled the keys in 2026.
- Bitquery’s full reconstruction suggests the total “Satoshi” estimate can vary significantly depending on how strictly the fingerprint is applied.
Why the long-dormant 600 BTC transfer didn’t settle the Satoshi question
The recent activity involved 12 block rewards mined over four days in March 2010, each remaining untouched until Sept. 5 of this year. The coins were spent in a short window—one-by-one—within roughly half an hour, an on-chain detail that naturally drew attention to whether the move could be linked to the earliest era of Bitcoin mining.
However, multiple lines of analysis complicate the “Satoshi woke up” narrative. Whale Alert reported no connection between the 600 BTC and the tracked Satoshi-linked holdings. Bitquery’s review went further: it reported that 10 of the 12 blocks involved in this transfer did not match the “Patoshi” mining pattern associated with Satoshi in the earliest blocks.
For the two blocks that did show weak matches, Bitquery researcher Gaurav Agrawal noted the matching could plausibly happen by chance. Importantly, this distinction matters for readers trying to separate “connected by pattern” from “connected by identity.”
“What the chain cannot say is whether the hand in 2026 belongs to the person who ran the machine in 2010.”
Even if the coins clearly originate from a period of early mining, the chain does not reveal who held the private keys when the coins were moved. Agrawal also emphasized that keys can be inherited, sold, stolen, or recovered from old storage media—meaning the blockchain may only show that someone had control at the time of spending, not who that someone is.
There’s another practical clue: the spending transactions used modern wallet software. The Bitcoin client used in 2010 would not have supported the same tooling. That implies the keys were likely loaded into a newer system by whoever controlled them in 2026, but it still doesn’t identify whether that controller is the original miner—or a later party who obtained the keys.
The “Patoshi” fingerprint and the limits of circumstantial evidence
The broader claim that Satoshi controlled about 1.1 million BTC rests on forensic-style reconstruction rather than direct proof. The basic method is to identify a recurring mining “fingerprint” in Bitcoin’s early blocks—then attribute blocks with similar traits to a single operator.
In 2013, researcher Sergio Demian Lerner publicly identified what he described as a distinctive pattern in the earliest blocks and argued it reflected one miner operating differently from others. Lerner estimated the miner amassed around 1.1 million BTC, and—more than a decade later—he continued to stand by the calculation, describing it as accurate with the caveat that the evidence remains circumstantial, not “math proof” or direct witness.
The argument is strengthened by additional observations that link early recipients to that same pattern. According to Lerner, several early Bitcoin users—Hal Finney, Dustin D. Trammell, Nicholas Bohm, and Mike Hearn—received transfers showing the Patoshi mining fingerprint. In his view, the fact that those transfers traced back to coinbases in the Patoshi pattern provides “compelling reasons” to connect Patoshi to Satoshi, even though it is still not absolute proof.
Lerner also suggested the miner likely used specialized mining software rather than the standard client. If true, that would imply an unusually fast setup after Bitcoin’s early release, making it “highly improbable” that a different party formed a matching operation later on.
Bitquery’s reconstruction: one stash estimate, multiple possible sizes
Thirteen years after Lerner’s work, Bitquery attempted a more comprehensive rebuild of the Patoshi fingerprint from raw early blocks. In a report released through its investigations, Bitquery said it graded 54,316 early-era blocks and followed every coin through Sept. 1, 2026.
The firm reported a “highest grade” reconstruction that agrees with the published Patoshi list on 99.2% of blocks. It also said it found zero exceptions in a timestamp-ordering test across 5,836 adjacent block pairs, with Agrawal stating, “I don’t know of a stronger test for this.”
Still, the work also highlights how sensitive the estimate can be. While Bitquery’s reconstruction supports the idea of a concentrated early-mining origin, the total count of attributed coins changes depending on how strictly the pattern criteria are applied.
Agrawal said a strict interpretation of the fingerprint covers just under 0.9 million BTC, while a “most generous reading” lands around 1.17 million. He emphasized that published estimates between roughly 1.0 million and 1.13 million fall inside that range, so the firm’s analysis did not “move the number” so much as clarify the uncertainty boundaries.
For investors and market observers, the practical takeaway is simple: the “1.1 million BTC” figure is best understood as an estimate derived from rules about pattern matching, not a precise, settled ledger fact.
What the chain can confirm—and what remains unknowable
Agrawal framed the “Satoshi owns 1.1 million BTC” claim as three separate assertions stacked together. First is that the coins likely came from one mining machine—supported by stronger evidence. Second is that the machine belonged to Satoshi—presented as circumstantial. Third is that the keys still sit under Satoshi’s control, which cannot be proven merely because the coins have historically stayed unmoved.
Bitquery also reported a 2010 transaction moving 600 BTC in two transfers about an hour apart. The first moved at 22:04 UTC and spent 10 block rewards worth 500 BTC; the second moved at 23:07 UTC and spent two block rewards worth 100 BTC. Those rewards were mined at various points throughout 2009, spanning near both the start and end of Bitcoin’s first year.
Agrawal argued that this May 2010 moment is “the clearest” where the chain itself, rather than statistical pattern matching, suggests the blocks belonged together—effectively the closest the chain gets to confirming that blocks from across 2009 ended up under one wallet, matching what the broader Patoshi pattern claims for the entire set.
Yet this does not answer the individual identity question for the Sept. 5 transfer. Bitquery said the 600 BTC moved this month do not belong to the Patoshi miner, and it reported no new evidence connecting this activity to “Satoshi’s” stash. As Agrawal put it, “nothing in the math settles it, so we will never be sure.”
What readers should watch next is less about whether “Satoshi” coins move and more about how researchers refine fingerprint tests and attribution thresholds. The chain can narrow possibilities through spending behavior and mining structure, but unless keys can be linked to a specific person over time, the biggest uncertainty—who controls the coins—will likely remain unresolved.
Crypto World
NEAR adds 20 tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo
NEAR has partnered with Ondo Finance to give eligible users access to 20 tokenized U.S. stocks, exchange-traded funds, and commodity-linked products through near.com and NEAR Intents.
Summary
- 20 tokenized assets will initially include Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, QQQ, SLV, and IAU.
- More than 30 connected blockchains can route supported crypto assets into Ondo Stocks through NEAR Intents.
- Eligible users can fund purchases with assets including Bitcoin and USDC without opening a separate brokerage account.
- U.S. persons cannot access Ondo Stocks under the product’s current securities restrictions.
Ondo Finance said the integration would let eligible near.com users exchange supported crypto assets for tokenized securities while keeping the entire process within one account. Availability will depend on each user’s location and compliance with the platform’s eligibility requirements.
NEAR users can access 20 Ondo tokenized assets
Rather than limiting the service to crypto-native assets, the first release will provide tokenized exposure to several of the largest U.S.-listed companies. Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon are among the initial stocks named by the companies.
The selection also includes the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, and precious-metals funds such as the iShares Silver Trust and iShares Gold Trust. QQQ, SLV, and IAU trade on U.S. exchanges, allowing the integration to cover technology stocks, a major equity index, and commodity-linked products.
Users can purchase the tokens with supported assets already held in their near.com accounts. Bitcoin and USDC are among the funding options, removing the need to first move the assets to a traditional brokerage account. After completing a purchase, users can hold the tokenized product or exchange it back into USDC or another supported crypto asset.
“Bringing financial markets onchain should give people more control over their money and more choice in how they transact,” said Alex Shevchenko, CEO of Defuse Labs, the developer behind NEAR Intents.
Access will also extend beyond near.com. Wallets, decentralized finance protocols and applications connected to NEAR Intents can route eligible users toward Ondo Stocks, although each participating service may apply its own interface and compliance procedures.
NEAR Intents handles routing across 30-plus chains
Instead of requiring users to choose bridges and transaction paths manually, NEAR Intents allows them to state the result they want. Independent solvers then compete to complete the request by finding and executing a route between the relevant networks and assets.
The system connects more than 30 blockchains, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, NEAR, Tron and BNB Chain. A user holding an asset on one supported network can therefore request a tokenized security without manually completing every transfer involved in the transaction.
NEAR has also developed a private version of the system for financial transactions. In September, the protocol crossed $70 million in confidential total value locked, triggering the first snapshot for an incentive program tied to Confidential Intents.
Confidential Intents routes transactions through a private NEAR shard, according to the project. NEAR says the design keeps transactions away from public mempools and can reduce exposure to front-running, strategy leaks, and certain forms of maximal extractable value.
Ondo Stocks will use the standard cross-chain distribution system described in the latest announcement. The partners did not state that purchases of the 20 tokenized assets would receive the privacy functions offered by Confidential Intents.
“Our goal is simple: investors should be able to reach these assets from the networks and accounts where they already hold their capital,” said Armand Khatri, head of ecosystem at Ondo Finance.
Ondo expands distribution for its tokenized securities
The NEAR agreement adds another distribution channel for a platform that has already deployed tokenized securities on Ethereum, Solana and BNB Chain. According to Ondo, its securities platform holds more than $1 billion in total value locked and has processed over $26 billion in cumulative trading volume.
In June, Ondo connected 35 assets to Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM through infrastructure built with LayerZero. The supported products included tokens linked to SPY, QQQ, Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, Netflix, and Alibaba, giving HyperEVM applications access to stock and ETF exposure.
Another LayerZero-based product had previously allowed users to move more than 100 tokenized stocks and ETFs between Ethereum and BNB Chain. NEAR Intents takes a different route by connecting users and applications across its network of solvers rather than asking them to transfer a token through a dedicated bridge.
Ondo has also sought regulatory clearance to bring parts of its tokenized securities business into the United States. The company asked the SEC to permit registered on-chain distribution of securities through Ethereum and other public blockchains.
U.S. users remain restricted from Ondo Stocks
Although the underlying shares and ETFs are listed in the United States, Ondo’s product disclosures state that Ondo Stocks have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933. The tokens may not be offered or sold in the United States or to U.S. persons unless they are registered or qualify for an exemption.
Eligibility rules also differ elsewhere. Ondo’s disclosures say that users in jurisdictions including the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Singapore may need to qualify as professional clients or investors before gaining access.
The restriction separates the NEAR integration from the SEC’s new five-year pathway for tokenized National Market System stocks. As crypto.news previously reported, products admitted under the exemption must carry the same economic, voting, dividend, and liquidation rights as the corresponding conventional shares. Tokens offering only synthetic price exposure do not qualify.
Under the SEC order, an issuer can object when an unrelated party seeks to tokenize its stock. Approved trading venues must also stop trading a tokenized security when the underlying stock is halted, while limits apply to the number of supported symbols and their trading volume.
Separate from the offshore Ondo Stocks service, Ondo’s U.S.-registered broker-dealer subsidiary, Oasis Pro Markets, has received FINRA authorizations connected to tokenized equities and funds. Oasis Pro Markets is registered with the SEC as a broker-dealer and alternative trading system, while Oasis Pro TA operates as a registered transfer agent.
Oasis Pro Markets recently joined DTCC’s Fund/SERV network, which connects broker-dealers and other financial firms with fund companies for order processing, settlement, and recordkeeping. The membership gives the company standardized links to mutual fund providers, wealth platforms, and other financial service firms using DTCC infrastructure.
Crypto World
BitMEX enters final shutdown hours after removing all trading services
BitMEX has removed its remaining spot, conversion, and derivatives markets ahead of its Sep. 23 shutdown, ending more than 11 years of exchange operations.
Summary
- BitMEX will end all exchange services at 04:00 UTC on Sep. 23.
- Remaining positions will be force-closed using the relevant contract settlement price.
- Customers can withdraw after closure, although account fees and new verification steps will apply.
- The exchange failed to secure a buyer after reportedly seeking a valuation near $1 billion.
BitMEX said HDR Global Trading Limited, its owner and operator, approved the closure after a “strategic review of the business and the broader crypto industry.” New account registrations stopped when the company announced the decision on July 23.
The exchange has since dismantled its services in stages. Major Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives were settled on Sep. 16, all remaining spot pairs stopped trading on Sep. 21, and the Convert service ended for every supported token at 04:00 UTC on Sep. 22.
BitMEX shutdown reaches its final stage
BitMEX will formally end exchange operations at 04:00 UTC on Sep. 23, equivalent to 9:30 a.m. in India. Any positions still open at that time will be closed by the system using the relevant settlement price or index under the exchange’s standard procedures.
As crypto.news reported in July, BitMEX initially gave customers two months to close positions and remove their funds. Risk limits introduced on Aug. 26 prevented users from opening new positions while allowing them to reduce existing exposure.
During July and August, the exchange began removing markets with limited trading activity. BitMEX delisted 35 derivatives contracts on July 30 and another 18 on Aug. 11, followed by several spot pairs, perpetual swaps, and Convert-supported tokens.
The final derivatives round included XBTUSD, XBTUSDT, ETHUSD and ETHUSDT perpetual swaps. BitMEX also settled the XBTU26, XBTZ26, XBTH27 and ETHUSDU26 futures contracts on Sep. 16.
Although the formal closure is set for Sep. 23, the removal of the remaining spot pairs and Convert service means users can no longer access the exchange’s main trading products. BitMEX’s limited post-closure interface will support withdrawals, transaction records and wallet-balance checks rather than trading.
Deposits will be credited only until the closure time. BitMEX warned that funds sent to its deposit addresses after 04:00 UTC on Sep. 23 will not appear in customer accounts and may be unrecoverable.
Withdrawals remain open under tighter conditions
Customers who have not removed their assets will retain account access after the exchange closes. BitMEX said its post-closure website will display balances, transaction histories and withdrawal pages, while the trading interface and other discontinued services will disappear.
From Sep. 23, verified accounts containing funds will face a monthly charge based on the higher of $50 or an annual rate of 1%. BitMEX will deduct the charge from the remaining account balance without taking it below zero.
If a balance is lower than the minimum withdrawal amount, the fee may reduce it to zero. The company also reserves the right to raise the charge after providing advance notice.
General application programming interface access will end when the exchange closes, but API withdrawals will remain available until 04:00 UTC on Sep. 28. Institutional withdrawal connections involving Fireblocks and Copper will stop working after that deadline, leaving the BitMEX website as the only withdrawal channel.
At the same time, BitMEX will remove its multi-network withdrawal option for USDT, USDC, and ETH. From Sep. 28, customers will only be able to withdraw the three assets through the Ethereum network.
Returning customers may also need to update their know-your-customer information before withdrawing funds. BitMEX said some users could face a test-transaction requirement and a security cooldown, while minimum withdrawal limits will apply separately to each asset.
The company has warned customers about phishing attempts linked to the closure. BitMEX said it does not offer priority withdrawals and advised users to reject messages claiming they can provide faster access to funds.
BitMEX also said customer assets remain fully backed and pointed to its proof-of-reserves and liabilities records. According to the exchange, no customer funds have been lost through a hack during its 11 years of operation.
Failed buyer search preceded the BitMEX closure
Before approving the shutdown, BitMEX reportedly spent about two years discussing a sale with potential buyers. Rival exchanges and wallet company Exodus were among the parties linked to the talks, while Broadhaven Capital Partners reportedly advised BitMEX during the process.
A later report on negotiations said BitMEX sought a valuation of about $1 billion, though it remained unclear whether any prospective buyer made a formal offer. The discussions ended without an agreement before HDR Global Trading completed its review.
Founder ownership reportedly complicated the proposed transaction. Arthur Hayes, Ben Delo and Samuel Reed left management after U.S. authorities filed criminal charges in 2020, but the three continued to control most of the company’s equity, according to the report.
Declining activity also weighed on buyer interest. BitMEX’s monthly futures volume had topped $100 billion during parts of 2021 but fell to between $25 billion and $30 billion by late 2024, according to figures cited in the report.
Trading activity moved to larger centralized platforms and decentralized perpetual exchanges during the same period. Hyperliquid recorded about $2.6 trillion in notional volume during 2025, according to Artemis data, compared with approximately $1.4 trillion for Coinbase.
Reuters separately cited Kaiko data showing BitMEX with roughly $400,000 in daily trading volume and a market share below 0.01% when the closure was announced. Kaiko analyst Thomas Probst said the exchange’s small share meant its exit was unlikely to have a major effect on the market.
BitMEX helped establish perpetual swaps as a central crypto derivatives product through its XBTUSD contract. Unlike standard futures, perpetual swaps have no expiry date and use recurring funding payments to keep their prices close to the underlying asset.
U.S. cases follow BitMEX into its final days
BitMEX’s U.S. legal history remains relevant as the company shuts its exchange. American authorities accused the platform of serving U.S. customers without sufficient anti-money-laundering and customer-identification controls.
The company pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act and received a $100 million penalty in January 2025. A federal judge also imposed two years of unsupervised probation on HDR Global Trading.
President Donald Trump later pardoned Hayes, Delo and Reed, along with former BitMEX executive Gregory Dwyer and the corporate entity. Earlier coverage of the pardons noted that the founders had admitted to federal violations linked to the exchange’s failure to maintain an adequate anti-money-laundering program.
Separate civil claims are still moving through U.S. courts. On Sep. 12, the Celsius bankruptcy estate sued five BitMEX entities in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York over liquidations during the March 2020 market crash.
The Celsius estate lawsuit seeks the return of 6,360.17 Bitcoin, valued in the complaint at about $495 million. Its claims include fraudulent transfer, conversion, breach of contract, breach of the implied duty of good faith, and unjust enrichment.
“BitMEX intentionally designed its platform and liquidation procedures to cause liquidations of collateral and defraud its own customers,” the complaint alleges.
The filing claims BitMEX controlled both the liquidation system and the insurance fund that received assets from some closed positions. It further alleges that the exchange kept excess Bitcoin collateral after settling Celsius-linked accounts.
BitMEX has not been found liable for the alleged conduct. The complaint remains at an early stage, and the amount recovered by the Celsius estate will depend on the court’s findings and any relief it grants.
A separate proposed class action filed in July accuses BitMEX of retaining 622.66 BTC that should have been returned to customers after liquidations. Plaintiffs BKX Services and David Namdar seek to represent eligible U.S. traders who used BitMEX Bitcoin perpetual products in transactions dating from July 23, 2018.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Targets $86K as Oil Slips Below $90 and Support Firms
Bitcoin traded in a narrow range around $86,000 on Tuesday, pausing after Monday’s push toward 33-week highs. The move came as broader risk sentiment appeared steady, while crude oil slid to levels not seen in nearly three weeks—an easing in energy markets that can still ripple into crypto through macro expectations.
At the same time, developments in geopolitics added a layer of uncertainty. US President Donald Trump told the United Nations that an agreement to end the US-Iran war could arrive after November’s midterm elections, a timeline that kept traders weighing the odds of near-term escalation versus delayed diplomacy.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin consolidated near $86,000 after testing fresh 33-week highs at $87,350 on Monday, according to TradingView data.
- US WTI crude fell to around $89 per barrel—its lowest level since late 2024—before bouncing toward $92.
- Glassnode said Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has crossed above its 365-day moving average, a pattern historically seen at the start of past bull markets.
- CryptoQuant highlighted momentum in the MVRV 30-day moving average and suggested a break above key levels could signal an end to prolonged accumulation.
BTC holds near $86,000 as oil weakens under $90
Following Monday’s rally, TradingView data showed BTC/USD volatility cooling. Bitcoin reached $87,350—its highest level since Jan. 29—before easing back into a tighter band near $86,000. For traders, this kind of consolidation after a local high often matters as a test of whether momentum can persist or whether the market needs to reset expectations.
In parallel, US stocks moved sideways as Trump addressed world leaders at the UN General Assembly in New York. While he reiterated the intention to reach a deal with Iran, he suggested the timing would be tied to the US midterm election cycle.
Oil’s immediate weakness appeared linked to supply developments. WTI crude dipped as low as $89.16 per barrel, cited as its weakest since early September, before rebounding toward the low $90s. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia had reopened the East-West Pipeline, a key route for moving oil, and quoted three anonymous sources saying it would take six to eight weeks to reach full capacity. That report helped reinforce the idea that supply constraints may be loosening, at least gradually.
On-chain momentum: MVRV ratio crosses a long-term trend
Beyond price action, on-chain data pointed to improving market structure. Glassnode said Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio—an indicator comparing BTC’s market cap to the cumulative price basis of its circulating supply—has moved back above a key long-term benchmark.
According to Glassnode, the MVRV ratio has crossed above its 365-day moving average. In commentary posted to X, Glassnode described the specific “cross” as one it had seen previously in 2019 and 2023 near the beginning of each bull market cycle.
Glassnode frames the MVRV ratio as a way to gauge whether Bitcoin is trading above or below what it calls “fair” value for the supply. In broad terms, higher readings correspond to larger unrealized profits across holders’ wallets.
At the time of the update, Glassnode put the MVRV ratio at 1.62. It had risen from 1.19 on Aug. 16, signaling that the market was, at least by this measure, shifting away from a deeper discount to realized cost. Still, Glassnode noted that the ratio remained well below a commonly cited 3.7 level associated with profitability peaks in earlier bull-market tops.
CryptoQuant watches MVRV MA30 for confirmation of a reversal
While Glassnode focused on the 365-day moving average cross, CryptoQuant emphasized another part of the same on-chain picture: the behavior of the MVRV ratio’s 30-day moving average. In a blog post, CryptoQuant said the MVRV MA30 had broken out from a multi-month resistance area below 1.5, characterizing that move as the kind of shift that can mark the transition out of an extended accumulation phase.
CryptoQuant argued that achieving such a breakout for the first time since January would represent a meaningful inflection—effectively signaling the end of a longer period in which investors accumulated rather than broadly exited at scale.
In its analysis, CryptoQuant added that if the MVRV ratio moves above its current reading of 1.62, it would “confirm the reversal of ongoing bear market.” The firm also referenced Bitcoin’s all-time highs of $126,200 as an upside target under that scenario.
What investors should watch next
With Bitcoin pausing near $86,000 after a sharp test of recent highs, the next signals likely hinge on whether on-chain indicators continue to improve alongside price. Traders and long-term investors will probably look for follow-through that keeps the MVRV momentum intact—while macro drivers such as oil’s ability to hold above or slip below the $90 area remain an additional variable for risk appetite.
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