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Buying the dip? Strategy prefers the top of the range

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Buying the dip? Strategy prefers the top of the range

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor purchased 1,031 bitcoin (BTC) last week at an average price of $74,326.

Saylor’s buy was in the 80th percentile of the available range and BTC traded between $67,354 and $76,013 during that period. 

It wasn’t a fluke.

Year-to-date across his 12-weekly SEC Form 8-K disclosures totaling 89,599 BTC purchases for $7.25 billion this year, Strategy has consistently bought in the top half of each week’s trading range.

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This is according to our analysis of the company’s own SEC filings and corresponding BTC market data.

Strategy’s 2026 purchases of BTC landed above the midpoint of each purchase period’s trading range 80% of the time.

Saylor buys BTC near the top

The pattern holds even when weighting for size. Indeed, Strategy’s two largest purchases of the year, 22,337 BTC in the week ending March 15 and 22,305 BTC in the week ending January 19, both cleared above the midpoint of each week’s range.

The January purchase, disclosed on January 20, cost $95,284 per coin while BTC traded between $90,016 and $97,939 that week.

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That placed Strategy at the 66th percentile of the range on its $2.1 billion purchase.

In early February, the firm bought 1,142 BTC at $78,815 during a week when BTC ranged from $59,930 to $79,301. Embarrassingly, that’s the 97th percentile or nearly the worst prices Strategy could have paid.

BTC spent most of that week at much lower prices, but Saylor paid near the ceiling.

Only three of the 12 weekly purchases landed below the midpoint of the range. Worse, those three combined for just 16,705 BTC, or 18.6% of total volume purchased year to date.

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‘I’m going to be buying the top forever’

Saylor has acknowledged his approach openly. “I’m going to be buying the top forever,” he posted on X.

Of course, that statement is supposed to reference the slow and long-term price appreciation of BTC, not the literal reality that Saylor is buying near the top of BTC trading ranges.

The numbers confirm it. Strategy’s volume-weighted average purchase price for 2026 is $80,929. BTC currently trades near $70,000, leaving the company’s entire 2026 buying program roughly $1 billion underwater.

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The company now holds 762,099 BTC acquired for a blended average of $75,694. At today’s prices, that treasury has an unrealized loss of over $4 billion.

The company’s MSTR common stock, which opened 2026 at $154.59, opened for trading this morning at $138.92, a 10% year-to-date decline.

Each Monday, Saylor discloses the prior week’s purchases via an 8-K filing. The day prior, on Sundays, he usually hints at the purchase by posting some sort of vague yet eminently obvious reference to “orange dots” on his SaylorTracker.

Protos previously noted a similar pattern in April 2025 when Strategy paid well into the top third of the weekly range while BTC spent most of the week near its lows.

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Read more: We calculated the present value of STRC — it’s bad for MSTR

To be fair, buying above the midpoint doesn’t automatically mean poor execution. No one knows the best price in advance.

Over the counter desks also handle large blocks at negotiated prices, and Strategy’s large size limits its ability to cherry-pick intraday lows. Strategy also seems to often buy early in the week, and for whatever reason, BTC has traded higher during early weekdays in 2026 than later weekdays.

Still, the consistency of the pattern across 12 consecutive weeks and nearly 90,000 BTC is difficult to dismiss.

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Strategy spent $5.8 billion, or 80% of its 2026 outlay, at prices in the upper half of each week’s range.

Saylor, for his part, keeps posting orange dots on Sundays and expensive, top-of-range BTC buys on Monday.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders See New Lows Coming as Gold Enters Bear Market

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Bitcoin Traders See New Lows Coming as Gold Enters Bear Market

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week facing fresh macro risks as gold plummets and traders wait for $50,000.

  • BTC price action ends the week below a key trend line, and traders see little more than an early-week bounce for bulls.

  • Price looks more and more like it is repeating January’s bear flag — and targets now call for new multiyear lows.

  • Gold enters a technical bear market and oil returns to $100 as Iran tensions continue.

  • Traders start to consider Fed rate hikes in 2026, but history could still offer risk assets some relief.

  • Bitcoin’s long-term holders have been selling at a loss throughout March.

Bitcoin weekly close loses 200-week trend line

After a rough weekend, Bitcoin struggled to reclaim support as TradFi traders returned to start the week.

Data from TradingView shows price dipping to near $67,400 into the weekly close, which lost control of the key 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) trend line.

Analysis previously saw a close above the 200-week EMA, currently at $68,300, as key to protecting bulls going forward.

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BTC/USD one-hour chart with 200-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In his latest X analysis on BTC price action released on Sunday, trader CrypNuevo forecast that the market would continue to hinge on geopolitics.

“It feels like we’ll be stuck in this range for the next month too,” he summarized.

“We could see some conflict escalation (uncertainty) next week that could trigger a new visit to the range lows where an interesting 4h long wick still sits there.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

CrypNuevo referred to Bitcoin’s sub-$60,000 swing low seen in early February.

“In LTF, I’ll be favoring a potential price rotation to $65k next week,” he continued about low time frames. 

“I’d like to position for this around $70k if we see a short-lived push to the upside at the start of the week. But with caution, because acceptance above $71k would invalidate it and I’d long to $73k-$74k.”

Crypto liquidation history (screeshot). Source: CoinGlass

Liquidations stayed high into Monday, with over $400 million erased over 24 hours, per data from CoinGlass.

With liquidity stacked above price, trader Castillo Trading eyed a potential short squeeze to take it.

Commenting on the latest price moves, meanwhile, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant hinted that the weekend’s downside volatility was nothing out of the ordinary.

“During weekends, institutional participation declines significantly, and spot-driven demand—especially from ETF flows—effectively pauses. As a result, the market becomes more dependent on derivatives positioning and short-term liquidity conditions,” contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post. 

“Lower liquidity also amplifies price sensitivity. With thinner order books, relatively small sell orders can trigger larger price movements, often leading to cascading effects such as stop-loss activation or liquidation events.”

BTC Sunday price action (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

XWIN stressed that weekend price action “should not be interpreted as a signal of trend continuation or reversal.”

Traders eye January bear flag breakdown repeat

For Bitcoin bulls, history risks repeating itself already this week — and just like before, bears appear to be in the driving seat.

Concerns revolve around another bear flag pattern currently playing out on the daily chart.

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Here, a macro downtrend is punctuated by a period of relief, giving some the impression that the trend has reversed. Price then drops through the bottom of the flag and the downtrend continues to new lows.

As Cointelegraph reported, traders have long warned about a second bear flag and its consequences after the first completed in January.

“It looks almost exactly the same. Bear Flag Breakdown & Retest with low volume on the upward move,” trader Roman told X followers last week after BTC/USD hit six-week highs of $76,000.

After the weekend, trader Jelle went further, suggesting that price had already broken support.

“Not a great way to start the week if you’re a bull. Consolidate here for a day or two and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking,” he warned.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X

On Saturday, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the bear-flag breakdown target could be below $50,000.

Gold hits bear market on Iran oil woes

The worsening global energy crisis focused on the Middle East is already taking a fresh toll on risk assets and safe havens this week.

Asian stock markets tumbled during their first session, while gold and silver also came under heavy selling pressure. Bitcoin joined them, hitting two-week lows into Sunday’s weekly close. 

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter even suggested that the downside in gold could have claimed a large-volume market participant.

“The sporadic moves in price could signal that a potential large player in the space is being liquidated,” it told X followers.

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Kobeissi added that rising US 10-year treasury note yields were “beginning to weigh on various asset classes.”

“Combine this with headline fatigue and ‘pockets’ of illiquidity in the market, and the massive gaps to both directions are only growing,” it added. 

“Something big is happening metals markets right now.”

XAU/USD one-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Now down over 20% since its all-time high, XAU/USD officially entered bear-market territory, hitting local lows of $4,099 per ounce — a level not seen since November 2025.

Oil, meanwhile, increasingly sought to stay above the $100 mark as uncertainty over flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed the potential impact on future US inflation readings.

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“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more. And even before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, there are growing signs that inflation is already inflecting higher,” it noted.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Risk-asset hope remains despite hawkish Fed

This week has little by way of key inflation reports, with jobless claims and S&P Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data taking center stage.

Crypto has shown sensitivity to PMI releases in recent months, with US manufacturing finally on the up after several years of retraction.

At the same time, headwinds from the Iran war are mounting, as shown by the hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve at last week’s meeting.

After leaving interest rates unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell said that any loosening of policy would now depend on “progress” being made on inflation. 

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“As a result, the market is quickly repricing the outlook for rate cuts,” Mosaic Asset Company commented. 

“While market-implied odds don’t point to another rate cut for over a year, another key indicator is suggesting that rate hikes could be in store.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

The conservative stance came despite weakening US labor-market conditions — traditionally cause to reassess restrictive policy measures.

A silver lining, however, could lie in store for risk assets in the form of historical patterns repeating. As Cointelegraph reported, crypto’s positive stocks correlation has recently grown.

“Conditions across breadth and sentiment are evolving to support a rally in the S&P 500. At the same time, historic precedent for market movements around major geopolitical events also hint that a rebound could be in store for the stock market,” Mosaic continued.

Kobeissi had similar ideas, reporting “skyrocketing” trading activity across stocks and last week’s giant options expiry event freeing up capital.

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“Friday’s volume was also amplified by ~$5.7 trillion in options tied to US stocks, indexes, and ETFs expiring in the largest March triple-witching in at least 30 years,” it wrote on X. 

“The massive volume of expired options has released billions in capital, which could drive significant market swings this week. Brace for more market volatility.”

S&P 500 ETF chart with volume data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bitcoin old hands sell at a loss

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are feeling the pressure at current levels — even without a rematch with range lows.

Related: Bitcoin RSI signals potential bottom as analysts flag key setup

CryptoQuant research reveals “capitulation” signals from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures whether coins moving onchain are doing so at a higher or lower price than during their previous transaction.

SOPR readings below 1 mean that the observed supply — in this case that owned by LTHs — is on aggregate moving at a loss.

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“On March 11, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.64, meaning long-term holders were selling their coins at a 36% loss relative to their cost basis. This is one of the most extreme LTH capitulation readings in recent months,” contributor The Enigma Trader commented. 

“A value this far below 1.0 indicates that even patient, conviction holders were being shaken out, a sign of genuine fear in the market.”

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant

The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR is still below 1 — even as large tranches of BTC leave exchanges in a potential emerging accumulation trend.

“One possible interpretation: while long-term holders were capitulating between March 10–20, a separate cohort was quietly absorbing supply and moving coins off exchanges,” it continued. 

“Distribution and accumulation happening simultaneously, a classic phase transition setup.”