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Polymarket 73% odds Hormuz Strait traffic to normalize by May end

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Crypto Breaking News

A temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran sparked a notable, though tentative, market reaction as traders positioned around the Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket’s prediction-market odds on traffic through the strait returning to normal surged, reflecting optimism that the ceasefire could hold long enough to ease regional tensions.

The odds climbed to a high of 82% on Friday after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open. They later cooled, settling at about 73% as further statements emerged. Araghchi’s message was conveyed in an X post, stating: “The passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

The latest Polymarket odds on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end-May, mapped against evolving political signals. Source: Polymarket

In the meantime, traders on Polymarket had previously priced in a more cautious outlook, with odds of a return to normal activity by the end of April at around 40%. The divergence between these two points highlights the evolving uncertainty around the durability of the ceasefire and its broader impact on global supply chains.

The news came as the war in Iran reverberated through financial markets, influencing both crypto and energy assets as investors reassessed risk premia and geopolitical risk. That backdrop set the stage for a volatile session across digital assets even as traditional energy proxies moved in response to shifting oil supply expectations.

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Bitcoin advances on ceasefire news, but the outlook remains fragile

Bitcoin (BTC) registered a notable, albeit brief, lift in response to the ceasefire developments, briefly tapping around $78,000 before retreating to roughly $77,358 at the time of reporting. The move underscored how geopolitical headlines continue to correlate with crypto sentiment, even as the broader macro picture remains unsettled.

“The passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Market observers highlighted that while the immediate reaction was supportive for risk-on assets, the longer-term trajectory was far from assured. Nic Puckrin, a crypto market analyst, described the ceasefire as fragile and fraught with unresolved core issues. He noted that a sustained absence of tensions, a meaningful drop in oil prices toward roughly $80 per barrel, and softer-than-expected economic data would all help BTC regain a higher level, potentially near $90,000.

“A ceasefire that results in the end of geopolitical tensions, a sustained drop in oil prices toward $80, and ideally also softer-than-expected economic data that calms stagflation fears” are all needed for BTC to reclaim the $90,000 level, he said. The market’s sensitivity to oil dynamics underscores how intertwined crypto and energy narratives have become in periods of heightened geopolitical risk.

Beyond the chart dynamics, the political backdrop remains a key driver. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the naval blockade on Iran would “remain in full force and effect” until the transaction with Iran is 100% complete, a stance that keeps the risk of renewed escalation in focus for traders and policymakers alike.

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Analysts emphasize that a durable resolution would likely require more than a short-term pause: it would demand progress on broader regional issues, verification mechanisms, and a credible path to de-escalation that reduces volatility across asset classes, including risk assets tied to geopolitical risk premiums.

What this means for investors and markets going forward

The current cycle illustrates a central truth about crypto markets in times of geopolitical strain: risk-on flows can emerge on partial news, but the sustainability of price moves hinges on the durability of peace signals and the broader macro regime. If the ceasefire endures and oil markets stabilize, appetite for crypto risk could improve further, potentially lifting BTC back toward earlier highs. Conversely, if tensions re-ignite or if the ceasefire proves short-lived, the same assets may retreat as investors gravitate toward safety and risk-off positioning.

Market participants will also be watching how policymakers respond to evolving conditions. The prospect of delayed rate cuts—if economic data softens and inflation remains sticky—could influence BTC’s risk premium and its ability to attract new entrants seeking inflation-hedge or digital-asset diversification benefits. The interplay between geopolitics, energy prices, and crypto demand will likely shape the trajectory of Bitcoin and related assets through the coming weeks and into mid-2026.

In the near term, traders should monitor several cross-currents: the durability of the ceasefire, any new statements from Iran or its interlocutors, and the oil-price path as markets digest the potential implications for supply and global growth. As with prior episodes, the path forward is unlikely to be linear, with volatility flagging opportunities for traders who can adapt quickly to shifting signals about risk appetite and macro stability.

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For investors, the episode underscores the importance of a diversified approach to exposure amid geopolitical uncertainty. Crypto markets remain sensitive to policy signals, while traditional energy dynamics continue to color risk sentiment across multiple asset layers. As the situation evolves, market participants will look for clearer, verifiable concessions and longer-lasting guarantees that could translate into steadier price action for both digital assets and energy-linked markets.

Readers should stay tuned for further developments on the ceasefire’s longevity, any changes to Hormuz traffic flow, and the potential shifts in oil and macro indicators that could recalibrate the risk-reward calculus for crypto portfolios in the months ahead.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Worldcoin (WLD) Plunges 13% After World 4.0 Launch with Major Tech Partnerships

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • WLD declined 13.4% to reach $0.28 on Friday while the wider cryptocurrency market gained 2.2%
  • World announced a comprehensive overhaul of its World ID platform, branding it as “full-stack proof of human” technology
  • Platform partnerships expanded to include Zoom, Docusign, and Tinder with availability extending to American users
  • The Orb technology captures iris biometrics to establish unique digital identities while avoiding personal data retention
  • Strategic collaborators also encompass Amazon Web Services, Shopify, Coinbase, Razer, and Reddit

The Worldcoin (WLD) cryptocurrency experienced a 13.4% decline to $0.28 on Friday, April 17, coinciding with World’s announcement of a significant identity verification platform enhancement and numerous new strategic partnerships.

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Worldcoin (WLD) Price

This downturn occurred against the backdrop of a 2.2% rally in the overall cryptocurrency sector, fueled by developments around US-Iran diplomatic progress and the resumption of Strait of Hormuz operations.

World, launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman as co-founder, convened a presentation in San Francisco unveiling “World 4.0.” This advancement establishes World ID as comprehensive “full-stack proof of human” architecture designed for individual users, commercial entities, and artificial intelligence systems.

The technology relies on the Orb apparatus, which captures facial and iris biometric data in-person to create a distinctive cryptographic identifier. Captured imagery undergoes immediate deletion following processing, with exclusively anonymized information distributed through a decentralized infrastructure.

Daniel Shorr, a senior executive, stated during the presentation: “World 4.0 is powerful, scalable and open. In the age of AI, being human will be incredibly valuable and the internet will want to know you’re human.”

Sam Altman remarked: “World ID is on the way to being a real human network for the internet.”

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The platform enhancement introduces account-based verification, multiple key functionality, and credential recovery mechanisms. World simultaneously released a standalone World ID application, presently in beta testing, enabling users to control and distribute their authentication credentials across various services.

Major Platform Collaborations

Zoom, the video conferencing service, is incorporating World’s “Deep Face” technology to authenticate that conference attendees are genuine individuals rather than AI-generated deepfakes. Docusign, the electronic signature provider, is implementing World ID authentication within its digital document execution process.

The dating application Tinder is extending its World ID “verified human” certification to users throughout the United States. World additionally introduced a “Concert Kit” solution designed to assist musicians in allocating tickets to authentic individuals, eliminating automated scalping operations.

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Gaming sector alliances with Razer and Mythical Games were revealed, while Reddit confirmed its evaluation of World’s capabilities for automated account detection.

Business Solutions and AI Integration

For enterprise applications, World is collaborating with Okta, Vercel, and Browserbase. These partnerships focus on establishing verification frameworks for automated business processes.

World unveiled “AgentKit,” a development platform connecting artificial intelligence agents to authenticated human credentials. Coinbase previously disclosed in March its intention to utilize AgentKit for its x402 AI micropayment infrastructure.

Additional established collaborators include Amazon Web Services, Shopify, Browserbase, Exa, and VanEck.

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Certain observers have expressed apprehension regarding the mass collection of biometric information, especially when centralized under a single corporate entity.

WLD serves as the indigenous cryptocurrency of the World Network, distributed as compensation for identity authentication and utilized for transactional operations throughout its platform.

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Circle (CRCL) Stock: New Native USDC Bridge Simplifies Cross-Chain Transfers

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CRCL Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Circle introduced USDC Bridge, a user-friendly interface powered by its Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) for seamless native USDC movement
  • The platform employs a burn-and-mint system that avoids wrapped or bridged token variants
  • Transaction costs are transparent upfront with automated gas handling; transferring $20 from Ethereum to Optimism runs approximately $0.20
  • The bridge works with a minimum of 17 EVM-compatible networks from day one, featuring Ethereum, Base, Polygon, and Monad
  • A class action lawsuit targeting Circle seeks damages for approximately $230 million in USDC transferred via CCTP after the Drift Protocol breach on April 1

On Friday, Circle rolled out USDC Bridge, a straightforward cross-chain transfer solution constructed on its established Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP). The initiative aims to streamline and demystify the process of transferring USDC across different blockchain networks for regular users.

CCTP debuted in April 2023. The protocol currently processes more than $500 million in daily USDC transactions and received a comprehensive V2 upgrade in the previous year.

This new bridge provides users with an intuitive interface for direct CCTP engagement. Until now, CCTP was primarily utilized by developers and technically sophisticated users — the updated UI democratizes access to a much broader user base.

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CRCL Stock Card
Circle Internet Group, CRCL

USDB Bridge operates through a 1:1 burn-and-mint mechanism. Tokens are destroyed on the originating blockchain and created natively on the receiving network, eliminating any wrapped token intermediaries.

Transaction costs are displayed upfront before users finalize their transfers. The protocol automatically manages destination chain gas requirements, eliminating a traditionally confusing element for less experienced users.

According to testing conducted by a The Block journalist, moving $20 in USDC from Ethereum’s mainnet to Optimism carried a fee of roughly $0.20. Cost structures fluctuate based on specific transaction parameters.

Circle doesn’t impose proprietary fees for CCTP usage. Users still encounter standard network gas charges on both source and destination blockchains, with expedited “fast” transactions potentially incurring premium costs.

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Supported Blockchain Networks

At its initial deployment, USDC Bridge accommodates at least 17 EVM-compatible blockchain platforms. The roster includes Ethereum, Avalanche, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Polygon, Sonic, Monad, Sei, and World Network.

While CCTP itself maintains compatibility with an expanded network selection that encompasses Solana, Sui, and Aptos, USDC Bridge currently restricts functionality to EVM-compatible environments, temporarily excluding non-EVM alternatives.

Circle natively deploys USDC across numerous blockchain networks and on specific platforms like Polymarket. USDC maintains its position as the stablecoin sector’s second-largest asset by market capitalization.

Cross-chain bridging infrastructure has historically represented a significant pain point within cryptocurrency. Complex user interfaces, opaque fee structures, and cumbersome multi-step processes have hindered widespread adoption — especially among newcomers. Circle frames USDC Bridge as a refined alternative addressing these persistent challenges.

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Legal Action Filed Following CCTP Security Incident

The bridge launch follows closely behind Circle being served with a class action lawsuit. The complaint, filed on Wednesday, concerns approximately $230 million in USDC that transacted through CCTP in the aftermath of the April 1 Drift Protocol security breach.

Over 100 plaintiffs have joined the legal action, with representation provided by law firm Mira Gibb. Circle faces allegations of aiding and abetting conversion alongside negligence charges for failing to freeze the compromised assets. Final damage amounts will be established during trial proceedings.

Circle has yet to issue a comprehensive public statement addressing the lawsuit’s specifics.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Surges Past $78K as Iran Reopens Hormuz Strait Amid Peace Talks

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Key Takeaways

  • BTC climbed above $78,000 for the first time in over two months following Iran’s announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz
  • Iran’s top diplomat announced that commercial shipping traffic can now pass freely during the ceasefire
  • President Trump indicated that negotiations between the US and Iran are nearly finalized with core elements agreed upon
  • Crude oil prices plummeted approximately 10% to roughly $85 per barrel following the announcement
  • Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted $664 million in net capital on April 17, marking the fourth consecutive day of positive flows

Bitcoin exploded beyond the $78,000 threshold on Friday, April 17, marking its strongest price level since the beginning of February. The rally was triggered after Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced via X that the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains “completely open” to commercial shipping traffic throughout the duration of the existing ceasefire agreement.

President Donald Trump validated the development through his Truth Social platform, stating that negotiations to resolve the US-Israel-Iran conflict are “mostly complete.” He indicated that fundamental components have been agreed upon, with the remaining issues anticipated to be settled within the weekend.

Bitcoin reached an intraday peak of $78,343, representing approximately 4.1% growth within the trading session. Throughout the week, BTC recovered around 5%, based on information from CoinMarketCap and TradingView.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Alternative digital assets experienced similar upward momentum. Ethereum appreciated 3.3% while XRP advanced 2.4%, contributing to a widespread risk-on sentiment throughout international markets.

Brent crude oil contracts declined roughly 10% to approximately $85 per barrel. The S&P 500 index also rallied, accumulating $7 trillion in market value during the previous three weeks, as noted by The Kobeissi Letter.

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Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows and Corporate Accumulation

Wu Blockchain disclosed on X that US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $664 million in net capital on April 17, representing the fourth consecutive session of positive inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $127 million, continuing a seven-day streak of inflows.

Bitcoin Archive shared on X that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has continuously accumulated Bitcoin for eight consecutive trading sessions, acquiring $284 million worth on April 17 exclusively. BlackRock’s cumulative purchases have reached $1.34 billion across the eight-day period.

Strategy Inc. has additionally accumulated $2.6 billion in Bitcoin during the past two weeks. Strategy’s stock price surged as much as 16% on Friday, representing its largest single-session increase since February 6.

Coinbase Global shares climbed as much as 8% while Galaxy Digital appreciated over 10% during the same trading session.

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Traditional Finance Enters Crypto

Goldman Sachs submitted documentation for a Bitcoin ETF this week, representing its initial direct entry into cryptocurrency investment products. Charles Schwab revealed intentions to introduce spot cryptocurrency trading capabilities in 2026 and indicated that clients might consider allocating up to 8.8% of investment portfolios to Bitcoin.

Morgan Stanley introduced its proprietary Bitcoin-tracking ETF last week, establishing itself as the first major banking institution to launch such a product.

Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, characterized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as “the risk-on signal the global markets have been waiting for.”

Bohan Jiang, senior derivatives trader at FalconX, noted that Strategy’s accumulation strategy has provided market support throughout recent trading periods.

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Geopolitical Risks Persist

The current ceasefire agreement is scheduled to conclude on April 22. US authorities have indicated that the naval blockade will remain operational until a comprehensive agreement is finalized. Iran has issued warnings about potentially closing the Strait once more if the blockade persists.

Axios additionally reported that US officials are evaluating the release of up to $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets in return for Iran relinquishing its enriched uranium inventory.

Derivatives market indicators suggest traders maintain a cautious stance. Funding rates for perpetual futures contracts registered negative on Friday. Put options positioned at $60,000 and $50,000 strike prices are commanding substantial premiums, reflecting hedging behavior.

Polymarket participants assessed the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 during this month at 65% as of Friday, April 17.

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Circle Launches USDC Bridge For Native Cross-Chain Transfers

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Circle Launches USDC Bridge For Native Cross-Chain Transfers

Stablecoin issuer Circle has launched USDC Bridge, a new user interface built on top of the Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) that seeks to simplify native cross-chain transfers of the USDC stablecoin.

On Friday, Circle’s USDC X account said the bridge allows users to move the USDC (USDC) stablecoin in a “predictable, transparent way,” citing a native burn-and-mint transfer mechanism and no bridge complexities.

Gas fees will be handled automatically, fees will be shown upfront, and live status updates will be provided throughout the transfer, Circle added.

Source: Circle

The USDC Bridge builds on Circle’s CCTP, which was introduced in April 2023 and facilitates hundreds of millions of stablecoin transfers each day.

CCTP eliminated the need for wrapped and synthetic versions of USDC.

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Cross-chain bridges seek to make the broader crypto ecosystem interoperable, functioning as a unified network rather than a collection of fragmented, isolated blockchains.

Making bridges as simple and easy to use as possible has been an area of focus for many crypto infrastructure firms. 

In the past, bridges have confused users and arguably slowed crypto adoption, especially for beginners struggling to navigate bridge interfaces, trade routes and gas fees.

USDC Bridge supports over a dozen blockchains

Cointelegraph found that USDC Bridge supports USDC transfers between at least 17 Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible blockchains, including Ethereum, Avalanche, Arbitrum, Base, Monad, Optimism, Polygon, Sonic and World Network.

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Related: Ukraine arrests FBI-wanted cybercrime suspect, seizes $11M in assets

Circle’s CCTP supports a broader number of blockchains, including Solana, Sui and Aptos, which are not natively EVM compatible.

On Wednesday, Circle was hit with a class action for failing to freeze around $230 million worth of USDC that moved through its CCTP from the Drift Protocol exploit on April 1.

Circle is accused of aiding and abetting conversion and negligence. 

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More than 100 members are involved in the class action. The law firm representing them, Mira Gibb, is seeking damages, with the final amount to be determined at trial.

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