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Solana price falls under $100: Dead-cat bounce coming?

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Solana price prints bearish continuation — can bulls defend psychological $100 level? - 1

Solana price slid deeper into the red on Feb.4, extending its recent downtrend as sellers continued to press the market.

Summary

  • Solana drops to $97, extending weekly losses to over 20% as price tests the $95–$100 support zone.
  • Despite price weakness, network usage and ETF inflows suggest longer-term interest remains intact.
  • Oversold conditions could lead to a short-term relief bounce.

At press time, SOL was trading near $97, down 6.1% over the past 24 hours. The move leaves Solana sitting near the lower end of its seven-day range between $96 and $127.

Solana (SOL) has dropped 23% over the last week and 31% over the last month. The token is now back to a range that many traders consider critical, having retraced roughly 66% from its peak of $293 in January 2025.

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Activity has increased despite the decline. As the price tests support, Solana’s 24-hour spot trading volume increased 32% to $6.55 billion, suggesting increased participation.

Derivatives show a similar trend. CoinGlass data reports futures volume jumping 40% to $17.17 billion, while open interest edged 0.65% higher to $6.48 billion, suggesting traders are adding exposure rather than fully stepping aside.

Network strength contrasts with price pressure

The weakness comes even as Solana’s fundamentals continue to improve. As previously reported by crypto.news, the network processed more than 2.34 billion transactions in January, a 33% increase from the past month and more than Ethereum, Base, and BNB Chain combined.

Institutional interest has also shown signs of growth. While Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products recorded net outflows in January, U.S. spot Solana ETFs attracted $104 million in inflows, pointing to rising interest from traditional investors during the pullback.

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Still, price expectations have been adjusted by some analysts. Standard Chartered recently lowered its 2026 Solana price target to $250 from $310, citing near-term market pressure.

At the same time, the bank raised its longer-term outlook, forecasting SOL at $400 by the end of 2027, $700 by end-2028, $1,200 by end-2029, and $2,000 by 2030. The bank’s analysts argue Solana is positioned to benefit from growth in stablecoin usage and micropayments as it moves beyond a meme-driven phase.

Solana price technical analysis

From a chart perspective, Solana continues to trade in a clear bearish structure. The daily timeframe shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers still control momentum. The earlier breakdown below the $115–$120 consolidation zone has turned that area into resistance.

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Solana price prints bearish continuation — can bulls defend psychological $100 level? - 1
Solana daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Price remains well below the declining daily moving average, now near $121, and repeated attempts to reclaim it have failed. This reinforces the idea that recent rebounds have been corrective rather than trend-changing.

Volatility has expanded to the downside. Strong selling pressure is evident as SOL is trading below the lower Bollinger Band. Although this often puts the market in short-term oversold territory, the absence of a significant reversal indicates that the downside momentum has not yet been completely exhausted.

That view is echoed by momentum indicators. The relative strength index is deep in oversold territory, at 26–28. The likelihood of an instant reversal is low because there isn’t any obvious bullish divergence at this point. In strong downtrends, RSI can remain oversold for extended periods.

The $100 level stands out as the most important near-term line. A sustained close below it would likely expose the $95–$93 zone, followed by a broader support area near $85–$90 if selling intensifies.

On the upside, any rebound is likely to face resistance near $120–$122, where the declining moving average and prior support converge.

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Crypto World

PI steadies at $0.1770 amid core team’s mainnet upgrade plans

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A bullish PI coin in front of a monitor
A bullish PI coin in front of a monitor

Key takeaways 

  • Pi Network’s PI token holds steady at $0.1730, up 4.5% from the previous day. 
  • The Pi Core Team’s upgrade to enable smart contracts, with a deadline set for April 27, is a potential catalyst. 

Pi Network’s PI token has managed to hold steady around $0.1770 as of Friday, adding a 4.5% gain from the previous day. 

The Pi Core Team (PCT) is driving momentum with the impending upgrade to the mainnet, which will enable smart contract functionality—expected to be a key catalyst for price movement.

PI rallies ahead of the Protocol 22 upgrade

PI is up 4.5% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. The rally comes after the Pi Core Team announced that April 27 is the final deadline for all mainnet nodes to complete necessary steps for remaining connected to the network, as part of the Stellar Protocol version 22 upgrade. 

While this upgrade will cause a brief 15-minute downtime during internal data transfer, it lays the groundwork for future improvements. Additionally, the full upgrade to version 26 is slated for June 22, ahead of Pi2Day on June 28.

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Will PI rally higher in the near term?

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient, trading above the $0.1770 level. However, Pi Network remains in a bearish posture, with the token still trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). 

The immediate resistance level is marked at $0.1785, corresponding to the 50-day EMA, followed by stronger resistance at $0.1865 (100-day EMA) and $0.2334 (200-day EMA).

However, momentum indicators present mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71 is above the neutral 50 line, and is heading into the overbought region.

PI/USD 4H Chart

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing above its signal line indicates growing bullish momentum. 

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On the downside, key support is found at $0.1556, near the February 23 low, with further weakness potentially exposing $0.1310 if the market slips below this level.

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Crypto in Sustained Winter as Q1 CEX Volumes Drop

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Crypto in Sustained Winter as Q1 CEX Volumes Drop

The cryptocurrency market has entered a “sustained crypto winter,” according to CoinGecko, as spot trading volumes on centralized crypto exchanges rapidly fell over the first quarter of 2026.

Crypto market capitalization fell by more than 20% during the first quarter as “bearish momentum from late 2025 collided with global geopolitical instability,” CoinGecko said in a report on Thursday.

That caused the top 10 centralized exchanges by spot volume to record a 39% decrease in trading volume over the quarter ended in March, dropping to $2.7 trillion from $4.5 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The drop comes as the crypto market has struggled to maintain positive momentum after Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high of more than $126,000 six months ago, as the wider market reacted to fears of an economic slowdown and uncertainty over the fallout from US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February.

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Trading volumes among the top 10 exchanges remained steady at $1 trillion a month in January and February before falling in March. Source: CoinGecko

March was the “weakest month,” according to CoinGecko, with $800 billion in trading volume, the lowest since November 2023.

CoinGecko said that the contraction in crypto markets was worsened by Kevin Warsh’s nomination as US Federal Reserve chair, which signaled “a potential hawkish shift in US monetary policy.”

Related: Three things Bitcoin must do to hold highs above $76K: Analysts

It added that daily trading activity across the crypto market saw “a significant decline” over the first quarter, with average daily trading volumes at $117.8 billion, a drop of 27% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

All of the top 10 spot centralized exchanges recorded declining volumes in the first quarter, CoinGecko said, with HTX, formerly Huobi, seeing “the biggest slump” quarter-on-quarter as volumes dipped 55% to $133.6 billion.

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It said that Bitcoin fell 22% over the first quarter, “continuing to underperform all assets, despite US equity indexes such as NASDAQ and S&P 500 falling -7.1% and -4.8% respectively, their worst quarterly returns since 2022.”

Big Questions: Should you sell your Bitcoin for nickels for a 43% profit?