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Solana price falls under $100: Dead-cat bounce coming?

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Solana price prints bearish continuation — can bulls defend psychological $100 level? - 1

Solana price slid deeper into the red on Feb.4, extending its recent downtrend as sellers continued to press the market.

Summary

  • Solana drops to $97, extending weekly losses to over 20% as price tests the $95–$100 support zone.
  • Despite price weakness, network usage and ETF inflows suggest longer-term interest remains intact.
  • Oversold conditions could lead to a short-term relief bounce.

At press time, SOL was trading near $97, down 6.1% over the past 24 hours. The move leaves Solana sitting near the lower end of its seven-day range between $96 and $127.

Solana (SOL) has dropped 23% over the last week and 31% over the last month. The token is now back to a range that many traders consider critical, having retraced roughly 66% from its peak of $293 in January 2025.

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Activity has increased despite the decline. As the price tests support, Solana’s 24-hour spot trading volume increased 32% to $6.55 billion, suggesting increased participation.

Derivatives show a similar trend. CoinGlass data reports futures volume jumping 40% to $17.17 billion, while open interest edged 0.65% higher to $6.48 billion, suggesting traders are adding exposure rather than fully stepping aside.

Network strength contrasts with price pressure

The weakness comes even as Solana’s fundamentals continue to improve. As previously reported by crypto.news, the network processed more than 2.34 billion transactions in January, a 33% increase from the past month and more than Ethereum, Base, and BNB Chain combined.

Institutional interest has also shown signs of growth. While Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products recorded net outflows in January, U.S. spot Solana ETFs attracted $104 million in inflows, pointing to rising interest from traditional investors during the pullback.

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Still, price expectations have been adjusted by some analysts. Standard Chartered recently lowered its 2026 Solana price target to $250 from $310, citing near-term market pressure.

At the same time, the bank raised its longer-term outlook, forecasting SOL at $400 by the end of 2027, $700 by end-2028, $1,200 by end-2029, and $2,000 by 2030. The bank’s analysts argue Solana is positioned to benefit from growth in stablecoin usage and micropayments as it moves beyond a meme-driven phase.

Solana price technical analysis

From a chart perspective, Solana continues to trade in a clear bearish structure. The daily timeframe shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers still control momentum. The earlier breakdown below the $115–$120 consolidation zone has turned that area into resistance.

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Solana price prints bearish continuation — can bulls defend psychological $100 level? - 1
Solana daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Price remains well below the declining daily moving average, now near $121, and repeated attempts to reclaim it have failed. This reinforces the idea that recent rebounds have been corrective rather than trend-changing.

Volatility has expanded to the downside. Strong selling pressure is evident as SOL is trading below the lower Bollinger Band. Although this often puts the market in short-term oversold territory, the absence of a significant reversal indicates that the downside momentum has not yet been completely exhausted.

That view is echoed by momentum indicators. The relative strength index is deep in oversold territory, at 26–28. The likelihood of an instant reversal is low because there isn’t any obvious bullish divergence at this point. In strong downtrends, RSI can remain oversold for extended periods.

The $100 level stands out as the most important near-term line. A sustained close below it would likely expose the $95–$93 zone, followed by a broader support area near $85–$90 if selling intensifies.

On the upside, any rebound is likely to face resistance near $120–$122, where the declining moving average and prior support converge.

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Crypto World

Canaccord slashes price target as stock tumbles to multi-year low

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Michael Saylor hints at another bitcoin purchase despite market turmoil

With crypto winter clearly having set in, bulls are now left looking for signs that the bearishness has become so embedded that a bottom might form.

One case in point might be a note from Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi on Wednesday, slashing his price target on Strategy (MSTR) by a whopping 61% to $185 from $474.

Vafi, who lifted his outlook on Strategy as recently as November (to that $474 level), still maintains a buy rating on the stock, and his new $185 target suggests about 40% upside from last night’s close of $133.

Strategy is now down 15% year-to-date, 62% year-over-year, and 72% from its record high in November 2024.

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Bitcoin, said Vafi, is in the midst of an “identity crisis,” still fitting the profile of a long-term store of value but increasingly trading like a risk asset. That tension came into focus during October’s crypto flash crash, when forced liquidations accelerated selling.

Though frequently cast as “digital gold,” bitcoin has failed to keep pace with the recent surge in precious metals, he continued. As gold has climbed on geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, bitcoin has lagged, underscoring its ongoing dependence on liquidity and risk appetite rather than safe-haven demand.

Strategy is built to weather volatility, the report said. The company holds more than $44 billion in bitcoin against roughly $8 billion in convertible debt, including a $1 billion tranche puttable in 2027 that remains in the money. Preferred dividends are manageable through modest share issuance, even with MSTR’s market cap no longer commanding much of a premium to the value of its BTC holdings.

Quarterly results are coming this week, but they have become largely immaterial given Strategy’s near-complete dependence on BTC, Vafi continued. A sizable unrealized loss tied to bitcoin’s fourth-quarter selloff is expected.

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Vafi’s new $185 target assumes a 20% rebound in bitcoin prices and a recovery in the company’s mNAV to about 1.25x.

Read more: ETF that feasts on carnage in bitcoin-holder Strategy hits record high

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Bitcoin Price Falls to a New Low

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Bitcoin Price Falls to a New Low

As the BTC/USD chart shows, prices dropped below $74,000 yesterday. This marks the lowest level since November 2024, when the cryptocurrency was rallying on news of Trump’s election victory.

At the same time, sentiment indicators are signalling “extreme fear” across the market. This was reinforced by the break below the key April 2025 low near $74,450.

The media has been circulating increasingly alarming headlines:
→ Michael Burry, well known for his bearish calls, has suggested that a drop below the $70k level could create problems for the largest coin holder, MicroStrategy (MSTR);
→ Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, warns that the market may be heading for a “full-blown” crypto winter rather than a simple correction.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

The price continues to move further away from the support level whose break we highlighted on 30 January.

At the same time, the market appears extremely oversold:
→ the price has fallen below the lower boundary of the previously drawn descending red channel;
→ the RSI indicator is forming bullish divergences.

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Under these conditions, it is reasonable to assume that the market may be setting up for a technical rebound. This scenario looks particularly plausible given the scale of long position liquidations — around $2.5 billion were wiped out on 31 January alone.

If a recovery does unfold, a key test of bullish intent will be the psychological $80k area, where bears previously held clear control while breaking below the lower boundary of the descending channel.

FXOpen offers the world’s most popular cryptocurrency CFDs*, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Floating spreads, 1:2 leverage — at your service (additional fees may apply). Open your trading account now or learn more about crypto CFD trading with FXOpen.

*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Survey Shows Crypto Investors Favor Infrastructure Over DeFi

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Survey Shows Crypto Investors Favor Infrastructure Over DeFi

A survey of senior crypto investors and executives suggests capital priorities are shifting away from decentralized finance (DeFi) and toward core infrastructure, as decision-makers focus on liquidity constraints and market plumbing. 

The findings come from a new report published by the digital asset conference CfC St. Moritz, based on responses from 242 attendees of its invitation-only event in January. Respondents included institutional investors, founders, C-suite executives, regulators and family office representatives. 

According to the survey, 85% of respondents selected infrastructure as their top funding priority, ahead of DeFi, compliance, cybersecurity and user experience. 

While expectations for revenue growth and innovation remain broadly positive, respondents flagged liquidity shortages as the industry’s most pressing risk. The results suggest that investor interest remains, but capital deployment is becoming more selective.

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Respondents on crypto innovation. Source: CfC St. Moritz

Infrastructure takes priority as liquidity concerns persist

Respondents pointed to market depth and settlement capacity as key bottlenecks preventing larger pools of institutional capital from entering crypto markets. 

About 84% of respondents described the macroeconomic backdrop as better than neutral for crypto growth, though many said existing market infrastructure remains insufficient for large-scale capitalization.

The survey also showed a change in innovation expectations. While a majority expects innovation to accelerate in 2026, fewer respondents anticipate a sharp increase compared to last year, suggesting a shift away from more speculative expectations toward execution-focused development.

This shift aligns with broader industry trends, including a focus on custody, clearing, stablecoin infrastructure and tokenization frameworks rather than consumer-facing applications. 

Related: CoreWeave shows how crypto-era infrastructure quietly became AI’s backbone

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US sentiment improves as IPO expectations cool

The survey found a sharp improvement in perceptions of the US regulatory environment, with respondents ranking the country as the second-most favorable jurisdiction for digital assets, behind the United Arab Emirates. 

CfC St. Moritz attributed the shift to stablecoin legislation and clearer rules for banks and regulated market participants. 

At the same time, expectations for crypto initial public offerings cooled after what respondents described as a record year in 2025. While most still expect listings to continue, fewer expressed high confidence, citing valuation resets and liquidity constraints.