Bitcoin has climbed about 23% over the past week to $77,535 as Bitfinex analysts say spot buying, ETF inflows and limited leverage could give the rally more staying power than a typical short squeeze.

Why Bitfinex sees more runway for Bitcoin

Bitfinex analysts told crypto.news that forced liquidations helped Bitcoin break out of its previous range, but spot purchases and returning institutional demand have continued supporting the price after much of the short pressure cleared.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at about $77,535 at the latest check after reaching an intraday high near $79,200. The cryptocurrency was up almost 7% over 24 hours and about 23% over seven days, extending a rally that began below $65,000 on Aug. 19.

Although squeeze-led advances often weaken once traders finish closing bearish positions, Bitfinex said the combination of ETF demand, improving macro conditions and limited selling could give the latest move a “longer runway,” with smaller retracements still possible.

Derivatives activity provides part of the evidence behind that assessment. Bitcoin gained between 10% and 11% during the initial breakout, while aggregate open interest rose by only about 4%, according to figures cited by the analysts.

“The shape of the move is the tell,” the Bitfinex team said. “Rallies built on fresh leverage show open interest jumping in step with price.”

Because open interest increased at a much slower pace than Bitcoin’s price, the analysts said spot buying and short covering performed most of the work. New leveraged positions played a smaller role, reducing the immediate risk of another large liquidation event caused by an overcrowded long market.

A weaker version of the setup would show open interest building quickly while Bitcoin stops rising. Bitfinex said the latest data had not displayed that pattern, although derivatives positioning will remain important if traders add leverage after the price increase.

Spot demand has outpaced fresh leverage

Bitcoin’s move began with a large short squeeze after the price cleared resistance around $65,000 and then crossed liquidation clusters near $67,000. Traders who had borrowed funds to bet on a decline were forced to buy Bitcoin as exchanges closed positions that no longer held enough collateral.

More than $1 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated within about one hour. Total short liquidations later approached $1.79 billion, while a longer market-wide count placed bearish liquidations near $2.7 billion over 24 hours.

The forced purchases helped Bitcoin jump from below $65,000 to approximately $69,500 on Aug. 19. As earlier liquidation data showed, the move carried BTC through several liquidity bands between $65,000 and $67,500 before it tested the upper cluster around $69,000.

Short covering explains the speed of the advance but does not fully account for Bitcoin holding above $70,000 after many bearish positions had closed. Bitfinex pointed to spot purchases and ETF inflows as evidence that other buyers entered during the breakout.

The distinction matters because liquidation demand is temporary. Each forced purchase closes an existing position, while continued spot accumulation can remove coins from the available market without creating the same exposure to futures liquidations.

Open interest will therefore remain one of the main indicators for judging the rally. A sharp increase in leveraged positions without matching price gains would weaken Bitfinex’s current reading, while steady prices accompanied by restrained open interest would remain consistent with a spot-led move.

The $68K–$69K zone could determine whether Bitcoin holds

Bitfinex identified the $68,000 to $69,000 area as the most important support zone because Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis currently sits within that range.

The metric represents the average acquisition price of coins held by investors who entered the market during the previous several months. Bitcoin trading above the level means that recent buyers are collectively holding unrealized profits, according to the analysts.

A sustained price above the range could limit pressure from holders seeking to exit at break-even. Falling below it would place part of the recent buyer group back into loss and could increase selling if confidence weakens.

The same area contains Bitcoin’s 200-day moving averages. BTC crossed its 200-day simple and exponential moving averages near $69,000 during the rally, reclaiming the long-term indicators for the first time in about nine months.

Barchart noted that Bitcoin had remained below its 200-day average since November 2025, about one month after it reached a record above $126,000. A sustained hold above the indicator would support the view that the decline from the October peak is losing strength, though the technical signal cannot guarantee further gains.

XRP rebounds to $1.40 as ETF inflows boost optimism, while MoneySimpler AI trading offers automated market analysis and trading.

XRP has rebounded to around $1.40, with increased buying and trading volume. ETF inflows and signs of institutional demand are driving the market bullish. If these inflows continue and regulations improve, XRP could gain further upward momentum, increasing its chances of hitting $5 by the end of the month.

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Why might XRP rise further?

The recent surge in XRP is closely related to the overall recovery of the crypto market. With Bitcoin breaking through $78,000, market risk appetite has improved, and the continued attention from institutional investors to the XRP ETF has further enhanced market focus on XRP’s future performance.

Furthermore, XRP’s potential applications in cross-border payments and digital asset settlement also provide support for its long-term development. If market funds continue to flow back in, and XRP can maintain its current upward momentum, $5 could become a key price target for the next phase of market attention.

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Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has renewed his call to buy Bitcoin and gold. He made the remarks as U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion this week. Bitcoin, meanwhile, climbed toward $80,000 for the first time since May.

Dalio Pushes Diversification Beyond Bonds

Dalio shared his advice in a post on social media platform X. He told investors to diversify across asset classes and countries with strong balance sheets. He also urged them to avoid nations facing serious political or geopolitical conflict.

The investor advised underweighting debt-based assets such as bonds. He recommended overweighting gold and holding a smaller allocation to Bitcoin instead. According to Dalio, this mix helps balance risk during periods of rising government debt.

He added that holding between 10% and 15% of a portfolio in gold lowers overall risk. This guidance builds on views Dalio has expressed for years. His latest comments arrive as debt concerns intensify across financial markets.

Bitcoin Rallies as Debt Concerns Mount

Bitcoin’s price movement this week reflects growing unease over U.S. fiscal health. The cryptocurrency rose from roughly $63,000 to nearly $80,000 within days. That surge followed news that the U.S. Treasury plans to expand its debt buyback program.

The Treasury’s move came after the 30-year bond yield hit its highest level since 2007. Bitcoin broke above $70,000 on the same day national debt passed $40 trillion. Analysts have linked the rally to investors seeking alternatives to traditional debt instruments.

Inflation pressures have complicated the picture further. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed energy prices higher, adding to inflationary strain. That dynamic has, at times, weighed on Bitcoin’s price despite the broader rally.

Debt Crisis Reaches a Critical Turning Point

Dalio described the government’s financial position as nearing a turning point. He warned that debt could soon reach levels the government cannot manage without significant disruption. He stressed that leaders should act now, while the economy remains relatively strong.

Waiting until conditions weaken would make the problem harder to solve, Dalio explained. He noted that government borrowing needs typically rise sharply during economic contractions. That pattern, he said, can turn a manageable debt load into an unmanageable one.

Dalio also pointed to external factors that can accelerate or delay a crisis. Major political shifts and wars fall into that category, he noted. Both forces, he added, can reshape the timeline for how debt problems unfold.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has pledged to keep prices stable despite these pressures. The Federal Open Market Committee, however, faces mounting pressure to raise interest rates. Rising inflation from energy costs has strengthened the case for tighter policy.

Prediction market data now shows growing expectations of a rate hike this year. Figures from Polymarket put the odds above 50%, with a 55% chance cited. That shift follows the Treasury’s effort to calm volatility in the bond market.

The debt buyback plan and Bitcoin’s rally have unfolded alongside each other this week. Gold has long served as a traditional hedge during periods of fiscal stress. Dalio’s comments frame Bitcoin as a newer addition to that same defensive strategy.

His remarks add to a broader conversation about how investors should respond to record debt levels. The $40 trillion milestone marks a significant point in that ongoing debate. Markets are likely to keep reacting as fiscal and monetary pressures continue to build.

Digital Asset, the firm behind the Canton Network, and the American Idea Foundation—an organization associated with former U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan—say they are preparing a blockchain-based pilot to modernize how public benefits are distributed in the United States.

The program, dubbed RISE, is designed to consolidate multiple state-administered benefits into scheduled payments, with rules that can adjust to changes in household income. The partners said the pilot is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2027, pending federal approvals.

Key takeaways

• Digital Asset and the American Idea Foundation plan a benefits-distribution pilot using the Canton Network across three U.S. states.
• RISE is expected to bundle benefits into monthly or twice-monthly payments and apply spending categories such as food, child care, and cash.
• The system would automatically recalibrate benefit levels when household income changes.
• Participating agencies would reportedly be able to monitor payments, balances, spending, and compliance data through Canton, while limiting access to sensitive information.
• Participating states and specific benefit programs have not yet been named, and the pilot remains subject to federal approval.

A blockchain-based approach to a fragmented benefits system

In their announcement, the partners described RISE as a way to reduce the friction that can come from administering multiple benefit streams that may have different rules and eligibility thresholds. The program is positioned as a “safety net” modernization effort by using Canton to coordinate permissions, payment logic, and transaction execution.

Digital Asset said Canton would be responsible for managing the rules and permissions involved in distributing benefits, while also constraining who can access sensitive data. The partners further stated that the system would support tracking at the agency level, including payment history, balances, spending behavior, and compliance information.

According to the announcement, the pilot would generate benefit payments on a monthly or twice-monthly schedule and apply spending restrictions to categories including food, child care, and cash. A central feature is automation: benefit levels would reportedly adjust as household income changes, aiming to reflect real-time circumstances rather than relying on static eligibility assumptions.

“By combining fragmented benefits, reducing penalties as families earn more, and rigorously measuring results, these pilots can help show what a modern safety net should look like.”

Why the partners say penalties could be reduced

The program’s rationale, as outlined by Paul Ryan, focuses on a common pressure point in benefits administration: when household earnings rise, recipients can face penalties or reductions that may not align with how quickly income changes. Ryan’s remarks explicitly connect the pilot to reducing penalties as families earn more.

From an investor and builder standpoint, the significance of the approach is less about one-off payments and more about how a rules engine can be coupled to compliance and reporting. If RISE works as intended, it could serve as a template for how public agencies handle complex eligibility and spending constraints—especially where multiple benefit categories must be administered without creating operational overload or exposing sensitive information.

However, the partners did not specify which states would participate or which programs would be included in the pilot. They also emphasized that the project requires federal approval, meaning timelines and scope could shift depending on regulatory review.

Canton’s government-linked momentum

This announcement adds another public-sector use case to Canton, whose growth in recent periods has been driven largely by institutional finance deployments. Earlier projects show a pattern of Canton being tested for settlement and collateral use, rather than for consumer-facing redistribution of funds.

In April, Japan Securities Clearing Corporation (JSCC), Mizuho, Nomura, and Digital Asset launched a proof of concept using Canton to test Japanese government bonds as digital collateral, including for real-time cross-border transactions. That work was reportedly selected for support under Japan’s Financial Services Agency Payment Innovation Project.

More recently, in July, Canton was used to settle a tokenized U.S. Treasury trade between Franklin Templeton and Virtu Financial. Tradeweb handled execution and price discovery, and the firms said the transaction moved against USDCx in real time—described as an industry first by Tradeweb.

With RISE, Canton’s role would extend from capital markets applications into the mechanics of public benefits. The pilot, if it gains regulatory traction, would test whether the network can handle compliance-heavy workflows while coordinating payment logic and access controls across multiple agencies.

What to watch before the first quarter of 2027

While RISE’s stated objectives are clear, key operational details remain unconfirmed. The partners have not named the three participating states or identified which benefits would be bundled. The pilot also depends on federal approval, which may determine the final structure of the payment schedules, spending categories, and reporting requirements.

Prospective observers should also watch how the system measures performance—particularly whether automated adjustments to benefit levels meaningfully reduce penalties as income changes, and how agencies validate compliance and audit trails through Canton. If the project advances beyond planning, it could become a reference point for how blockchain-based infrastructure fits into regulated, data-sensitive government programs.

AVAX One interim CEO Pete Wylie has said $33 million in non-cash charges accounted for most of the company’s $35.1 million second-quarter loss as staking helped revenue rise to $2.8 million.

AVAX One interim CEO Pete Wylie told crypto.news that the reported loss did not capture the operating performance of the company’s staking, mining and digital infrastructure businesses.

“The $35.1 million number can be attention-grabbing, but it does not tell the full story,” Wylie said.

“It includes about $33 million of what are called non-cash charges, most of that being an unrealized markdown based on current prices for the AVAX we continue to hold and accumulate.”

After removing the non-cash items, AVAX One reported an adjusted net loss of $2.2 million for the quarter. Wylie said the adjusted figure provided a clearer view of the operating business, although the company’s reported results remain closely tied to AVAX’s market value.

AVAX One’s loss was driven by digital-asset markdowns

According to AVAX One’s Aug. 13 earnings release, the company recorded a $29.8 million unrealized loss from changes in the market value of its digital assets. A further $2.6 million impairment came from its liquid-staking tokens, while share-based compensation and depreciation contributed approximately $600,000.

Operating expenses reached $36.2 million, up from $1.8 million during the same quarter of 2025. Excluding the $33 million in non-cash charges, AVAX One calculated adjusted operating expenses of $3.2 million.

Net loss reached $4.41 per diluted share, compared with an $8.1 million loss, or $335.88 per diluted share, one year earlier. On the company’s adjusted basis, the latest loss was $0.27 per diluted share.

Although an unrealized loss does not require an immediate cash payment, AVAX One’s results show how a declining token price can reduce the recorded value of its treasury. Wylie acknowledged that volatility is built into the strategy but said staking rewards continue to accrue in AVAX regardless of the token’s dollar price.

“We earn revenue in ‘nominal’ form, AVAX tokens, and though the current value is lower than we expected for this period, if the token price rebounds, we get the benefit as our earned rewards tokens increase in value, even though we recognized initial revenue at a lower price,” he said.

Quarterly revenue rose to $2.8 million from approximately $500,000 a year earlier. Staking supplied about $2.1 million, or 75% of the total, while Bitcoin mining produced approximately $700,000.

As of Aug. 13, the company held 14,091,424 AVAX tokens and equivalents. Approximately 95% of the holdings were staked at an annualized yield of about 5.4%, according to the earnings release.

Around 800,000 AVAX had been deployed into Treehouse. An AVAX One SEC filing describes Treehouse’s tAVAX as a liquid-staking receipt backed by BENQI’s sAVAX, with an AVAX redemption process that can take approximately 14 days.

The filing also lists smart-contract vulnerabilities, extreme market volatility, governance attacks and bridge failures among the risks associated with decentralized finance positions. AVAX One said it would typically absorb losses arising from an adverse event.

Liquidity and debt shape the treasury strategy

Wylie said AVAX One allocates capital according to where management believes each dollar can create the most shareholder value. Depending on market prices and available opportunities, the company can buy AVAX, repurchase its shares, or fund selected infrastructure projects.

“Staking is the foundation of our Avalanche treasury strategy. Our Bitcoin mining operations contribute operating cash flow and provide a gateway for opportunities in the AI and high-performance computing space, an area we are actively exploring.”

During the second quarter, AVAX One repurchased approximately 144,755 common shares under its authorized $40 million buyback program. The company said it had repurchased approximately 417,537 shares since November 2025 on a split-adjusted basis.

Reported liquidity stood at approximately $21.2 million on June 30, down from $27.6 million at the end of 2025. The latest amount included $11.4 million in cash and cash equivalents, $5.4 million in restricted cash, and a $4.3 million escrow receivable.

Given AVAX’s volatility, Wylie said the company remains cautious about its capital structure, particularly debt. After the quarter closed, AVAX One retired and restructured approximately $6.8 million of convertible debt.

The August restructuring fully repaid debentures held by two institutional investors and reduced the principal owed to another investor. AVAX One also agreed to increase a covenant covering the minimum cash and Bitcoin it must maintain from $100,000 to $3.5 million.

For U.S. investors, AVAX One offers public-market exposure to an Avalanche treasury through its Nasdaq-listed AVX shares. The structure also means shareholders face risks from both the company’s operations and changes in the value of AVAX recorded in its U.S. financial reports.

Wylie took over as interim CEO while retaining his chief operating officer role after Jolie Kahn left the company in July. As previously reported by crypto.news, the board retained ZRG Partners to search for a permanent chief executive while weak AVAX prices pressured the company’s treasury strategy.

AVAX One favors explainable yield over higher returns

With most of its AVAX working through staking, the company monitors yield and operating costs as it tries to increase the number of tokens held per share, according to Wylie.

“Our yield partnerships are with established, proven companies. We’d rather earn a yield we can explain than a higher one that seems too good to be true, because it probably is.”

AVAX One’s staking rewards accrue in tokens, leaving their dollar value exposed to changes in AVAX prices. Wylie said management focuses on keeping the assets productive while controlling operating expenses so the treasury can continue accumulating AVAX.

Avalanche’s Helicon upgrade could provide more flexibility if its staking changes progress from testnet to mainnet. Helicon is live on the Fuji testnet and includes proposals to reduce the minimum primary-network validator commitment from 336 hours, or 14 days, to 48 hours.

Another proposal introduces automatic staking renewal, allowing validators to set a cycle period and an auto-compounding ratio. Avalanche’s documentation says the feature applies to primary-network validators, not Avalanche L1 validators or legacy subnet validators.

Wylie said shorter commitments could improve liquidity and reduce the barrier for institutions. Since the changes remain under testing, AVAX One has not yet gained its proposed benefits in its mainnet staking operations.

Avalanche adoption supports Wylie’s treasury conviction

Wylie tied the company’s long-term confidence to institutional activity across Avalanche, pointing to recent deployments involving tokenized securities, lending and stablecoin settlement.

In July, Japan’s Progmat completed the migration of ¥452 billion in issued securities and underlying assets from Corda 5 to a dedicated Avalanche L1. Progmat said the transfer covered all active projects on its platform without disrupting participating financial institutions.

According to Progmat, its platform handles 45 of Japan’s 89 publicly disclosed security-token projects and accounts for 64.6% of the country’s market by issuance value. Internal tests cited by the company found that rights-transfer processing became three to five times faster after the migration.

Aave also deployed V4 on Avalanche on July 15, its first launch of the architecture outside Ethereum. Aave’s documentation says the deployment uses a core liquidity hub with main, foreign-exchange, and AVAX-linked lending sections.

Stablecoin payments supplied another institutional test. Hyundai Card completed a $20,000 remittance pilot between Hyundai Motor entities in the United States and Mexico using USDT on Avalanche. The company said the settlement took about seven minutes.

BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, issued through Securitize, had also accumulated more than $900 million on Avalanche by July after adding approximately $436 million in one week. BUIDL invests mainly in U.S. Treasury bills, cash, and repurchase agreements, while access remains subject to investor eligibility and transfer controls.

Visa added Avalanche to its supported stablecoin settlement networks in 2025. An April 2026 company announcement said Visa’s nine-network stablecoin settlement pilot had reached a $7 billion annualized run rate, although Visa did not provide an Avalanche-specific share of that volume.

Outside its treasury operations, AVAX One is preparing an AI inference pilot at its Redwater facility in Alberta. The project is testing whether approximately 100 kilowatts of excess Bitcoin-mining capacity can support AI workloads, with the company working alongside infrastructure developer BlueFlare on additional AI and high-performance computing opportunities.