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Bitcoin Protected From Severe Crash Unless Saylor Sells, Says CryptoQuant CEO

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TLDR:

  • CryptoQuant CEO states Bitcoin won’t crash 70% unless MicroStrategy’s Saylor liquidates his holdings significantly. 
  • MicroStrategy holds $2.2 billion cash reserves with no short-term debt pressure forcing Bitcoin sales near $76K basis. 
  • Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has flatlined indicating no fresh capital inflows while early holders continue profit-taking. 
  • Current bear market likely to form wide sideways consolidation rather than sharp decline seen in previous cycles.

 

Bitcoin appears protected from severe 70% crashes characteristic of previous bear markets unless MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor liquidates his holdings, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

The analyst’s assessment challenges traditional cycle expectations while acknowledging persistent selling pressure in the current market environment.

The cryptocurrency faces downward momentum as fresh capital inflows have ceased, yet structural differences suggest this downturn may unfold differently than historical precedents.

Early holders continue distributing profits accumulated during the ETF-driven rally, but MicroStrategy’s position remains a critical stabilizing factor.

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CryptoQuant Analysis Points to Different Cycle Dynamics

Ki Young Ju emphasized that MicroStrategy’s involvement fundamentally alters this cycle’s potential outcomes. The company served as a major driver of Bitcoin’s rally toward $100,000, accumulating substantial holdings that now influence market structure.

In his analysis, the CryptoQuant CEO stated that “MSTR was a major driver of this rally. Unless Saylor significantly dumps his stack, we won’t see a -70% crash like previous cycles.

This observation reflects MicroStrategy’s unique position as a publicly-traded entity with long-term conviction rather than a speculative trader.

Traditional bear markets witnessed 70% declines when overleveraged entities faced forced liquidations and margin calls.

However, the analyst noted that such catastrophic drops require significant selling from major holders. The company’s holdings represent patient capital unlikely to flee during temporary price weakness. This dynamic provides a floor beneath the market that did not exist in earlier cycles.

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Despite this cushion, Ki Young Ju warned that selling pressure continues without clear signs of a bottom. He explained that “Bitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in. Realized Cap has flatlined, meaning no fresh capital.”

The analyst further noted that “when market cap falls in that environment, it’s not a bull market.” Early Bitcoin holders sitting on substantial unrealized gains have distributed their positions since early 2024, though institutional inflows previously absorbed this supply.

The analyst predicted this bear market will likely form a different pattern than previous cycles. He stated that “selling pressure is still ongoing, so the bottom isn’t clear yet, but this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation.”

This forecast differs markedly from the 2018 and 2022 bear markets that featured severe drawdowns. Market participants should prepare for extended sideways price action instead of quick capitulation events that characterized previous cycles.

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MicroStrategy’s Balance Sheet Shields Against Forced Selling

Analyst Anıl provided additional context regarding MicroStrategy’s financial position and its implications for Bitcoin’s downside risk.

The company holds Bitcoin with an average cost basis around $76,000, close to current market prices. According to Anıl, “Michael Saylor (Strategy) faces no short-term debt pressure that would force selling Bitcoin bought at a $76K cost basis. All liabilities are long-term.” This structure eliminates the refinancing pressures that historically triggered forced liquidations.

The analyst characterized recent price action near MicroStrategy’s cost basis as tactical maneuvering by market participants. Anıl observed that “Bitcoin trading back near cost levels looks like an attempt to pressure Saylor — and it’s likely to be short-lived.”

This assessment suggests that current weakness represents temporary positioning rather than fundamental deterioration. The company maintains resilience through careful balance sheet management.

MicroStrategy’s financial strength extends beyond debt management to include substantial liquidity reserves. Anıl noted that “Strategy also holds $2.2B in cash reserves set aside for tough times.”

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These reserves provide the company with offensive capabilities rather than forcing defensive actions. The analyst added that he “wouldn’t be surprised to see Saylor start accumulating Bitcoin again around cost levels using that cash. Maybe this week, maybe next.”

This cash position fundamentally changes Bitcoin’s risk profile during downturns. The analyst’s expectations flip traditional bear market dynamics where large holders typically reduce exposure.

MicroStrategy’s structure eliminates the forced selling catalysts that triggered previous cycle collapses. The company operates without leverage constraints or margin requirements that plagued earlier institutional participants, supporting CryptoQuant’s thesis that severe crashes require Saylor’s active participation as a seller.

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Analysts eye potential breakdown as BTC price repeats familiar pattern: Crypto Markets Today

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Analysts eye potential breakdown as BTC price repeats familiar pattern: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market is trading sluggishly within the range it has held for two months, with bitcoin changing hands at $69,000 and ether (ETH) at $2,130.

The range-bound pricing dates back to Feb. 6, with several peaks between $72,000 and $75,000 and troughs between $62,000 and $65,000.

A similar two-month pattern occurred between November and January before a price breakdown, leading analysts to suggest a similar scenario may play out this time around.

Much still depends on the conflict in Iran, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of “obliteration” falling on deaf ears thus far. Brent crude oil remains at $107 per barrel, which will have a knock-on effect on inflation over the course of the year unless it declines.

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Derivatives positioning

  • The market continues to consolidate as bitcoin open interest (OI) stabilizes at $16.7 billion, little changed from last week and indicating that speculative activity remains flat.
  • Funding rates have moved into a neutral 0%-6% range, following a period of negative funding that likely fueled the initial relief rally through short covering.
  • With the three-month annualized basis also little changed over the week, institutional conviction remains cautious, suggesting that while the immediate downside pressure has eased, the big players are not yet positioning for a major breakout.
  • Options sentiment is stabilizing as call dominance reaches 47% and one-week skew drops to 16% from 19% last week. However, the implied volatility term structure’s front-end backwardation confirms that traders are still prioritizing immediate downside protection over long-term growth expectations.
  • CoinGlass data shows $163 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 60-40 split between longs and shorts. BTC (64 million), ETH ($35 million) and others ($16 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
  • The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $69,500 as a core level to monitor in case of a price rise.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market has been surprisingly buoyant recently, despite broader market apathy. Since midnight UTC privacy tokens zcash (ZEC) and dash (DASH) rose by 6.7% and 3.1%, respectively, and there were also notable gains for FET, PUMP and RENDER.
  • The bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index gained 0.3% on Tuesday, while being outpaced by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS), a sign of the relative strength of altcoins compared with crypto majors.
  • The recent bounce in altcoins has not been uniform, however. AI tokens, privacy tokens and the likes of HYPE and ALGO have performed well, while other market segments have tumbled. Over the past 90 days ethena (ENA) has lost 66% of its value, while TIA, LDO, SUI and ARB have all fallen by more than 50%.
  • That’s a divergence from previous cycles, when altcoins moved in unison. It now appears the market is maturing to a point where assets may be moving based on real-world impact, as opposed to hype and overzealous roadmaps.

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Bitcoin up, software stocks down since the war began

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Bitcoin up, software stocks down since the war began

Since the outbreak of the war with Iran on Feb. 28, bitcoin has started to diverge from software equities, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), serving as a useful proxy for the sector.

Bitcoin has been one of the strongest-performing assets during this period, rising more than 5% and trading back above $69,000, including a gain of more than 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

IGV, in contrast, has fallen more than 2% since the conflict began. That gap suggests investors are starting to treat bitcoin and software stocks differently, at least in the near term.

Until recently, the two had moved closely together. Over the past three months, bitcoin fell 26% and the ETF lost 23%. Year to date, both are lower by about 21%. Over five years, bitcoin has gained 18% compared with 10% for IGV. In other words, both have moved in the same direction, but the cryptocurrency has done so with much greater volatility.

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That is also clear in their declines. Bitcoin had fallen roughly 50% from its October all-time high, while IGV, which peaked slightly earlier, fell about 35% from its own top.

The correlation data tells the same story. From early February, bitcoin and IGV were almost perfectly correlated, close to 1.0, meaning they were moving nearly in lockstep. After the war began, that relationship broke down sharply, with the correlation dropping to 0.13, a level that signals near decoupling, before rebounding to around 0.7. The figure can range between -1.0 and +1.0, with 0 indicating no correlation at all.

Why have software stocks been hit harder?

IGV is heavily weighted toward large software and services companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL) and Salesforce (CRM). Investors are increasingly worried that artificial intelligence will compress margins and valuation multiples across software, especially in Software as a Service (SaaS), as competition rises and barriers to entry fall. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading more like a macro asset, benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty.

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Bitcoin Trader Eyes Bear Market Bottom as Stochastic RSI Mimics 2023

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Bitcoin Trader Eyes Bear Market Bottom as Stochastic RSI Mimics 2023

Bitcoin (BTC) is copying the end of its 2022 bear market “nearly perfectly,” according to a new BTC price analysis.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin stochastic RSI values are “nearly perfectly” repeating the end of its last bear market, new analysis claims.

  • Both recent local bottoms and the current rebound echo conditions from three years ago.

  • Standard RSI is already on the radar for a potential BTC price bottom signal.

Bitcoin stochastic RSI echoes 2023 rebound

In an X post on Monday, crypto trader Quantum Ascend revealed copycat moves playing out on Bitcoin’s stochastic relative strength index (RSI) indicator.

Stochastic RSI, also known as “stoch RSI,” is a derivative of traditional RSI — a classic leading indicator that helps traders identify overbought and oversold conditions, as well as BTC price trend changes.

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Like its standard counterpart, stoch RSI flashes “oversold” price signals when it drops below 30/100 on its scale, with “overbought” entering when its value is above 70/100.

Stoch RSI moves between those two zones much more quickly, but Quantum Ascend sees a key long-term bull signal now locking in.

“RSI at the EXACT SAME point on the Daily as it was in 2022,” he told X followers.

BTC price and stochastic RSI comparison. Source: Quantum Ascend/X

An accompanying comparative chart shows stoch RSI making a double bottom along with price before both surged higher in early 2023. At the time, BTC/USD had recently set a multiyear low of $15,600 — a level that ended up forming the bear-market bottom.

Now, Quantum Ascend says, the repeat performance is “playing out nearly perfectly.”

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“Breaking above the EXACT SAME level (blue line). At the EXACT SAME time,” he added.

The chart reveals that stoch RSI is now attempting to clear its 50/100 midpoint after two local lows in late January and late March, respectively.

BTC price counts down to bear flag decision

RSI signals have already been firing in 2026 despite lackluster BTC price strength.

Related: First real bull signal since 2025? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

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As Cointelegraph reported, eyes are on weekly standard RSI to print a bullish divergence with price, again mimicking early 2023.

At the time, weekly RSI set its lowest level on record — one so far not matched in 2026, per data from TradingView.

BTC/USD one-week chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin still faces bearish hurdles to recovery, with traders concerned about a bear-flag breakdown repeating on the daily chart.

“In few days we will understand if the pattern is repeating or not,” analyst Aksel Kibar wrote on X over the weekend.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X