• Price level: XRP is trading at $1.34 as of April 6, down 63% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65, with Q1 2026 marking its worst quarter in eight years.
• Legislative clock: Senate Banking Committee markup is targeted for late April; Senator Moreno has warned that failure to advance by May effectively kills the bill for 2026.
• Bull case trigger: Banking Committee approval unlocks a projected $4–$8 billion in XRP ETF inflows per Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, with a price target above $1.60.
• Bear case floor: A stall past May combined with Bitcoin breaking below $60,000 puts XRP at risk of sliding toward $0.82, per 24/7 Wall St. analysis.
• Passage odds: Kalshi had 2026 passage odds at ~69% as of March 20; Polymarket currently sits at 63–66%, reflecting residual uncertainty around DeFi provisions and scheduling.

When you search for:
“best AI crypto trading bot for beginners 2026”
“is automated crypto trading safe”

you’re already at a critical decision point:

Should you keep learning crypto trading on your own, or let an AI-powered system handle it for you?

In 2026, this question has become more relevant than ever. As the crypto market grows more complex and more beginners enter the space, a rising number of investors are turning to AI crypto trading bots to simplify the process and explore automated crypto trading as a more efficient way to participate.

Among the many platforms available, AriseAlpha has been gaining increasing attention—especially in searches related to:

• AI crypto trading bot for beginners

• hands-free crypto trading platform

• passive income crypto strategies

But the real question is:

Is AriseAlpha truly beginner-friendly?
Or is it just another platform that looks simple on the surface?

In this review, we’ll break it down from a real user perspective, analyzing its workflow, system design, and usability to help you decide whether it’s worth trying.

What Makes AriseAlpha Different from Other AI Crypto Trading Bots?

Most platforms labeled as “AI trading bots” still require users to:

• Configure strategies

• Adjust parameters

• Understand trading logic

AriseAlpha takes a different approach.

Instead of giving you tools, it gives you a ready-to-run system.

Key concept:
You don’t manage trades — you select a system that trades for you.

This is why it’s increasingly associated with searches like:

How AriseAlpha Works (Beginner Workflow Explained)

1. Quick Account Setup

The onboarding process is streamlined and doesn’t overwhelm new users with technical steps.

This removes the biggest barrier: getting started.

Click Register to claim your free $12 real reward right away!

2. Strategy Selection Instead of Strategy Building

Instead of charts and indicators, users see:

• Pre-built AI trading strategies

• Risk levels (conservative / balanced / aggressive)

• Expected behavior explanations

This aligns perfectly with beginner intent:
choose, not analyze

3. Fully Automated Execution

Once activated, the system handles:

• Market analysis

• Trade execution

• Strategy adjustments

No manual intervention required.

This is what defines a true hands-free crypto trading experience.

Performance Logic: How Does It Generate Returns?

AriseAlpha’s AI operates on three core layers:

• Data-driven signal detection

• Automated trade execution

• Built-in risk management controls

Compared to manual trading:

This explains the growing demand for:
“passive income crypto strategies” and “AI crypto bot automation”

Who Should Use AriseAlpha?

✔ Best Fit

• First-time crypto investors

• Users looking for passive income

• People with limited time or trading knowledge

✖ Not Ideal For

Realistic Expectations

Let’s address the most searched concern:
“Do AI crypto trading bots actually work?”

The honest answer:

✔ They improve execution efficiency
✔ They remove emotional decision-making
✔ They automate trading processes

⚠ But they do NOT:

The value lies in process optimization, not certainty of returns

Why AriseAlpha Is Gaining Popularity in 2026

Three key trends are driving adoption:

1. Beginner demand for simplified investing

2. Rising interest in passive crypto income

3. Shift from manual trading to automation

Trending search keywords include:

• AI crypto trading bot 2026

• automated crypto investing platform

• crypto passive income for beginners

AriseAlpha sits right at the intersection of these trends.

Conversion Insight: Why Many Beginners Actually Try It

From a behavioral perspective, most users are not looking for perfection—they are looking for:

• A low-risk starting point

• A simple onboarding experience

• A way to test crypto trading without complexity

This is where AriseAlpha stands out.

The availability of a $12 free reward lowers the entry barrier significantly, allowing users to explore the platform before committing real funds.

FAQ

Q1: Is AriseAlpha legit for beginners in 2026?
✅ Yes, it is designed specifically for beginners with a fully automated trading system.

Q2: Can I earn passive income with AriseAlpha?
✅ Potentially yes, but results depend on market conditions and strategy performance.

Q3: Do I need trading experience?
✅ No, the platform is built for users with zero experience.

Q4: Is it really hands-free?
✅ Yes, once activated, the AI handles all trading operations automatically.

Final Verdict: Is AriseAlpha Worth Trying?

AriseAlpha may not be the most complex or customizable trading platform in the market—but that’s exactly its strength.

For users searching:

• best AI crypto trading bot for beginners 2026

• hands-free crypto trading platform

• how to start crypto investing without experience

it offers something more practical:

A simple, low-barrier way to start

Rather than positioning itself as a “professional trading tool,” AriseAlpha functions as an entry point into automated crypto investing—especially for those who prefer simplicity over complexity.

If your goal is to explore crypto investing without spending weeks learning trading strategies, starting with a hands-free AI system like AriseAlpha could be a more efficient first step.

Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.

Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, announced on Monday that it purchased 4,871 BTC for $330 million, marking one of its largest acquisitions of 2026.

Yet a recurring question remains, why do these sizable purchases fail to move the market? In fact, bitcoin’s price often declines around the time these announcements are made.

The answer lies in understanding market flows. MSTR demand currently accounts for roughly 7% of total gross inflows, rising to about 9% of net flows, according to checkonchain data. Gross flows reflect only positive demand entering the market, while net flows account for both buying and selling, giving a clearer picture of overall pressure. While Strategy remains a consistent buyer, its impact is relatively small compared to broader market forces.

Historically, its influence was larger. MSTR demand peaked above $15 billion in November 2024, coinciding with its all-time high stock price high and bitcoin over $100,000. Since then, activity has normalized to a range of $1 billion to $4 billion, with current demand around $2.8 billion over the past 30 days.

The dominant force is long-term holders (LTHs), coins held for more than 155 days, which are driving roughly $28.5 billion in supply change. A key subsection is revived 1+ year supply — older coins moving on chain over the past 30 days — which represents roughly $9 billion in change.

Elsewhere, U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have added roughly $1 billion of inflows over the past 30 days, while miner issuance, at 450 BTC per day, contributes around $880 million of monthly supply pressure.

More importantly, capital continues to leave. Bitcoin’s realized cap saw a $29 billion drawdown since February over a 30-day window, while BlackRock’s IBIT open interest is down over $4 billion. Together, these outflows dwarf MSTR’s demand.

Strategy may be buying aggressively, but it is being overwhelmed by larger forces distributing supply and capital being pulled out of the system.

• What It Is: The Giugliano hardfork (PIP-83) is a Polygon PoS mainnet upgrade activating at block 85,268,500, targeting faster transaction finality and updated fee infrastructure.
• The Technical Change: Block producers can now announce blocks earlier in the cycle, cutting finality by 2 seconds – validated on the Amoy testnet before mainnet deployment.
• Fee Infrastructure: Fee parameters are now embedded directly in block headers, with new RPC endpoints for fee data – a structural change for wallets and developer tooling.
• Node Requirement: All node operators must run Bor v2.7.0 or Erigon v3.5.0 or higher; nodes on earlier versions will fall out of consensus at the activation block.
• What to Watch: Real-world finality metrics post-activation will determine whether the 2-second testnet gain holds at mainnet scale – and whether Polygon closes the UX gap with faster L2 competitors.

Stablecoins are reshaping remittances as costs drop and settlement speeds accelerate globally.

Sending money across borders shouldn’t cost 6% and take five days. But for billions of people relying on traditional remittance corridors, it still does.

Stablecoins are changing that. By replacing correspondent banking with on-chain settlement, stablecoin remittances compress costs to under a dollar and settlement times to minutes. The global stablecoin market now exceeds $310 billion in market cap, and transaction volume hit $1.78 trillion in February 2026 alone.

The infrastructure is maturing fast. Here are the best companies and providers powering stablecoin remittance today.

1. Transak

Best for: Platforms and fintechs building stablecoin-powered remittance products that need compliant fiat on/off-ramp infrastructure across multiple markets.

Transak is a payments infrastructure provider that handles the fiat-to-stablecoin and stablecoin-to-fiat conversion layer for platforms building remittance products.

Transak is available in 64+ countries with support for local payment methods, including cards, bank transfers, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. It supports major stablecoins like USDC, USDT, RLUSD, PYUSD, and EURC across multiple blockchains.

What makes Transak particularly relevant for remittance is its stablecoin sandwich architecture: fiat in, stablecoin transfer on-chain, fiat out. Both sender and receiver stay in their local currency. The stablecoin layer is invisible to the end user.

Transak handles the entire compliance stack, including KYC, AML screening, and transaction monitoring, with registrations and licenses in the US, UK, EU, Canada, Australia, India, and other jurisdictions.

For platforms that want to offer remittance without building regulatory infrastructure from scratch, Transak’s white-label on-ramp and off-ramp APIs are the fastest integration path.

2. Circle (USDC)

Best for: Enterprises and institutions that prioritize regulatory transparency and need a fully audited stablecoin for settlement.

Circle is the issuer of USDC, one of the most widely used regulated stablecoins. USDC is backed 1:1 by US dollar reserves held in treasuries and cash, with monthly attestation reports.

Circle provides enterprise APIs for USDC payments and settlement, and USDC is available on over 20 blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana, and Stellar. For remittance companies that want to build on a transparent, compliance-first stablecoin, USDC is the default choice.

3. Stellar (via MoneyGram, Nium, and others)

Best for: Remittance corridors where last-mile cash pickup is essential and the recipient may not have a bank account.

The Stellar network was designed from the ground up for cross-border payments. It offers low transaction fees (fractions of a cent), fast settlement (3-5 seconds), and native support for stablecoins, including USDC.

Stellar’s real strength is its network of anchors, i.e., local financial institutions that handle the fiat on-ramp and off-ramp in each country. MoneyGram integrated Stellar for stablecoin-powered cash pickups, and Nium partnered with the Stellar Development Foundation to enable stablecoin payouts to 190 countries.

4. Ripple Payments (XRP)

Best for: Banks and licensed financial institutions looking for institutional-grade settlement infrastructure with existing banking network integrations.

Ripple’s enterprise payment network connects banks and payment providers for real-time cross-border settlement. While XRP is not a stablecoin, Ripple uses it as a bridge asset for liquidity in corridors where pre-funded accounts are expensive to maintain.

Ripple has partnerships with over 100 financial institutions and focuses heavily on B2B remittance and institutional corridors, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

5. BVNK

Best for: High-volume B2B payment companies and remittance operators that need multi-currency, multi-chain settlement.

BVNK provides enterprise infrastructure for businesses to move money between fiat and stablecoins at scale. With 25+ licenses covering 130+ markets, BVNK processed $30 billion in annualized stablecoin payment volume in 2025.

The platform supports multi-token and multi-chain settlement, making it suitable for high-volume corridors where speed and compliance matter equally.

6. Stripe

Best for: Existing Stripe merchants looking to add stablecoin settlement without changing their payment stack.

Stripe integrated stablecoin payments in 2025, allowing merchants to accept and settle in USDC across Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, and Base. Stripe automatically converts stablecoin payments to fiat, making it accessible for businesses already on the platform.

While not a remittance-specific provider, Stripe’s infrastructure is increasingly relevant for platforms that process international payouts or cross-border merchant payments.

7. Fireblocks

Best for: Enterprises building custom stablecoin payment infrastructure that need institutional-grade custody and orchestration.

Fireblocks provides the orchestration layer for enterprise stablecoin operations, including custody, transfer, and settlement across 100+ blockchains. It’s the backend infrastructure that many of the companies on this list (including Transak) use for secure asset movement.

Fireblocks is not consumer-facing; it powers the institutional plumbing behind stablecoin remittance platforms.

What’s Next for Stablecoin Remittance

Regulatory clarity is accelerating adoption. The US GENIUS Act establishes federal requirements for stablecoin issuers. The EU’s MiCA framework is already live. As these frameworks solidify, the gap between stablecoin remittance and traditional rails will only widen.

The infrastructure for compliant stablecoin payments already exists. The providers listed here are the ones making it production-ready.

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$68,358.67 and the wider crypto market showed mixed signals on Tuesday, with the largest cryptocurrency briefly touching $70,000 on reports a ceasefire in Iran was proposed.

The hesitation comes a day after bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest inflows since late February, even as the market pays close attention to the harsh macro backdrop. Bitcoin ETF investors’ demand suggests they see the current price action as an accumulation opportunity.

Binance Research found earlier this month that bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, turned strongly negative after the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. ETF-driven institutional flows tend to be more forward-looking, positioning themselves for expected policy moves. That is, institutional capital may be accumulating ahead of expected easing of monetary policy.

Bitfinex Alpha described the market as range-bound but fragile, with weak organic demand, slower corporate treasury buying and options positioning that turns more unstable below $68,000 as downside protection grows.

Macro pressure remains relevant too. Brent crude remains above $110 a barrel as the looming deadline U.S. President Donald Trump imposed on Iran for a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz keeps investors on edge.

The market currently sees little room for the Federal Reserve to lower rates in the near future given the expected inflation rise caused by higher energy costs. U.S. inflation data coming in later this week will be critical. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • April 7, 07:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly (est. 10K)
  • April 7, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM for February est 04% (Prev. 0%)
  • April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsbee to participate in a conversation on economic and monetary policy.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Governance votes & calls
  • April 7: Kamino and xStocks to host an X Spaces session on tokenization.
  • Balancer DAO is voting across two linked proposals to restructure operations with a reduced team and budget, and to revamp tokenomics by halting BAL emissions, discontinuing veBAL, routing all fees to the treasury, and offering a token buyback. Voting ends April 7.
  • CoW DAO is voting to fix its solver rewards budget at 50% of protocol revenue, splitting it between performance and new consistency rewards. The proposal has overwhelming support and ends April 7.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.98% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $69,149.83 (24hrs: -1.05%)
• ETH is down 0.98% at $2,128.41(24hrs: -1.31%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.13% at 1,946.75 (24hrs: -1.59%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.74%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0049% (5.3327% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.15% at 99.83
• Gold futures are unchanged at $4,688.40
• Silver futures are down 0.3% at $72.63
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 53,429.56
• Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53
• FTSE is up 0.33% at 10,470.51
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.98% at 5,748.35
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.36% at 46,669.88
• S&P 500 closed up 0.44% at 6,611.83
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.54% at 21,996.34
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.22% at 33,181.97
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.12% at 3,656.10
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.325%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,657.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,373.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.16% at 46,976.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.04% (-0.08%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03077 (0.54%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 951 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $31.40
• Total fees: 2.18 BTC / $151,084
• CME Futures Open Interest: 117,120 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 14.8 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.6%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows bitcoin’s dollar price in weekly candle for the past several years.
• The measure is still trading around the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,317 while the RSI continues to grind up after bottoming out at 27 a few weeks ago.
• With no clear bearish RSI divergences, the next core level to monitor is $73,000 for any confirmed upward momentum

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $174.79 (+1.94%), -0.56% at $173.82 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $92.15 (+2.09%), +0.18% at $92.32
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $18.28 (+3.63%), +0.11% at $18.30
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.35 (+2.69%), unchanged in pre-market
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.85 (+1.61%), -0.55% at $8.80
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.52 (+5.13%), -0.52% at $13.45
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.29 (+0.37%), -0.18% at $16.26
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.10 (+3.53%), -0.33% at $9.07
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $36.70 (+2.63%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.33 (+3.77%), +0.63% at $6.37

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $127.69 (+6.56%), -0.71% at $126.79
• Strive (ASST): closed at $10.12 (+3.79%), +0.30% at $10.15
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.38 (+3.07%), +0.12% at $6.39
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.01 (+3.59%), -0.99% at $1.00
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (+1.79%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $471.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.41 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $120.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.63 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.68 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs renewed their inflow pace on Monday, drawing in $471 million in a single day, according to SoSoValue. The size of the inflow marks the strongest daily momentum in weeks as Bitcoin briefly climbed toward $70,000 before retreating to just under $69,000, per CoinGecko.

Market mood remained fragile amid ongoing geopolitical pressure and renewed concerns over Bitcoin’s quantum-resistance debate, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed in Extreme Fear at 13, highlighting the cautious stance of many investors.

Key takeaways

• Monday’s spot-Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $471 million, the largest single-day intake since February 25.
• Leading inflows by issuer: BlackRock’s IBIT with about $182 million, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with $147 million, and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) with roughly $119 million, per data from Farside.
• ARKB’s surge represented its strongest daily inflow in months, signaling renewed appetite among some long-duration players.
• Arkham data indicates ETF outflows slowed last week, with major issuers selling around $16.6 million in BTC; ARK Invest’s ARKB ETF bought about $34 million in BTC in that period, per Arkham.
• In April’s early sessions, US spot BTC ETFs posted about $307 million in net inflows, lifting total assets under management above $90 billion.

Top inflows and the issuer lineup

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) led the charge on Monday with roughly $182 million in new money, followed by Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) at about $147 million, according to data tracked by Farside. The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) rounded out the top three with roughly $119 million in fresh inflows, marking its strongest daily showing since mid-2025.

The activity underscores that, even amid volatility and macro concern, institutional-grade vehicles remain capable of moving sizable sums into the regulated crypto access space in the United States.

Arkham signals and weekly positioning

Arkham’s monitoring shows a refreshing pause in ETF outflows last week, with major issuers selling only about $16.6 million in Bitcoin. In that same period, ARK Invest’s ARKB ETF was the standout buyer, adding about $34 million worth of BTC. The signals point to a nuanced reweighting among funds—some lightening exposure while a subset targets fresh BTC purchases.

Looking at the broader April picture, Arkham data summarized that the first three trading sessions of the month produced roughly $307 million in net inflows for US spot BTC ETFs, helping push total assets under management over the $90 billion mark. This suggests a potential shift in risk appetite among US-listed ETF vehicles as market conditions quietly stabilize from earlier volatility.

Ether ETFs rebound, but the broader alt-coin set remains cautious

Ether-based ETF products joined the recovery, recording about $120 million in inflows on Monday and offsetting about $78 million of outflows from the prior two sessions, according to SoSoValue. Still, Ether ETFs have faced three consecutive months of losses, with total outflows reaching about $770 million for the period.

Activity across other altcoin ETFs remained comparatively muted. XRP ETFs posted zero inflows on Monday, while Solana (SOL) ETFs brought in roughly $247,000. The pattern suggests a cautious approach among investors toward non‑BTC chains, even as appetite for regulated BTC access remains firm.

What the data implies for traders and investors

The April uptick in US spot BTC ETF inflows could be interpreted as a return of institutional interest, carried partly by marquee vehicles such as IBIT and ARKB. For traders, the inflows may reflect a combination of price proximity to $70,000, ongoing macro uncertainty, and the appeal of regulated exposure with transparent custody and compliance frameworks.

Yet the backdrop remains mixed. While inflows are evolving, Bitcoin’s quantum-resistance debate and geopolitical tensions continue to cast a shadow over sentiment. The ongoing resilience in ETF demand may hinge on how regulatory clarity evolves and whether more traditional asset allocators view crypto exposure as a core, capital-efficient segment of their portfolios.

In March, Bitcoin ETFs posted about $1.3 billion in inflows—the first monthly gain after January outflows of $1.61 billion and February outflows of $207 million—indicating that financial-market participants are cautiously re-engaging with regulated crypto access after a period of outsized outflows.

As the month progresses, investors will be watching whether this renewed ETF interest translates into sustained net flows or remains episodic. Key questions include how issuer strategies adjust to shifting BTC price action, whether Ether and other altcoin ETF inflows pick up in tandem, and how regulatory developments in the U.S. shape the appetite for institutional-grade crypto exposure.

Watch next for any changes in the ETF lineup, additional weekly flow data, and how market volatility around macro headlines interacts with the ongoing push for regulated crypto access in the United States.

Key Takeaways

• UBS has revised its S&P 500 year-end 2026 projection downward from 7,700 to 7,500
• Elevated crude prices stemming from Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions drive the revision
• The benchmark index has declined 3.9% following the outbreak of Iran conflict on February 28
• Federal Reserve rate reduction expectations shifted to September and December from June and September
• Despite revisions, UBS maintains approximately 13% potential upside with $310 earnings per share forecast

UBS Global Wealth Management has adjusted its outlook for the S&P 500, trimming its price projection for 2026. The revision comes as energy costs climb and economic headwinds intensify due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

According to an April 6 research note, UBS reduced its year-end forecast to 7,500 from a previous estimate of 7,700. The firm also lowered its mid-year projection to 7,000 from 7,300.

Since conflict erupted with Iran on February 28, the S&P 500 has retreated approximately 3.9%. Spiking energy costs combined with geopolitical instability have prompted investors to reduce equity exposure.

UBS’s central scenario anticipates the conflict subsiding in the weeks ahead, which would enable energy supply chains to gradually normalize.

Yet the Swiss banking giant cautioned that returning oil production to pre-conflict capacity will require significant time. Widespread infrastructure damage throughout the region means full production restoration remains months away.

This delay could sustain elevated crude prices beyond current market expectations.

Energy Price Surge Creates Economic Headwinds

Rising energy costs typically decelerate economic expansion while accelerating inflation. UBS indicated this pattern will likely sustain sticky inflation and create modest drag on the American economy.

Consequently, the institution now anticipates the Federal Reserve will postpone additional monetary easing. UBS had originally projected reductions in June and September but now forecasts two 25-basis-point decreases in September and December.

This adjustment illustrates how international geopolitical developments can influence domestic central bank decisions.

Notwithstanding the reduced targets, UBS calculates roughly 13.43% upside potential from the S&P 500’s most recent closing level of 6,611.83.

Long-Term Bullish Stance Remains Intact at UBS

UBS maintained its 2026 earnings projection for the S&P 500 at $310 per share. The institution characterized American equities as “attractive” notwithstanding near-term challenges.

The firm highlighted that corporate profit expansion remains robust. It also emphasized ongoing artificial intelligence adoption and commercialization as supportive factors for equities once conflict-related pressures diminish.

UBS noted that even with delayed policy accommodation, the Federal Reserve continues to provide broad market support.

The bank refrained from altering its constructive view on U.S. stocks. It simply recalibrated the timeline and magnitude of its price forecasts to reflect the ongoing war’s impact.

UBS currently projects two Federal Reserve rate reductions before 2026 concludes, both scheduled for the year’s second half.

The crypto market is trading sluggishly within the range it has held for two months, with bitcoin BTC$68,461.22 changing hands at $69,000 and ether (ETH) at $2,130.

The range-bound pricing dates back to Feb. 6, with several peaks between $72,000 and $75,000 and troughs between $62,000 and $65,000.

A similar two-month pattern occurred between November and January before a price breakdown, leading analysts to suggest a similar scenario may play out this time around.

Much still depends on the conflict in Iran, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of “obliteration” falling on deaf ears thus far. Brent crude oil remains at $107 per barrel, which will have a knock-on effect on inflation over the course of the year unless it declines.

Derivatives positioning

• The market continues to consolidate as bitcoin open interest (OI) stabilizes at $16.7 billion, little changed from last week and indicating that speculative activity remains flat.
• Funding rates have moved into a neutral 0%-6% range, following a period of negative funding that likely fueled the initial relief rally through short covering.
• With the three-month annualized basis also little changed over the week, institutional conviction remains cautious, suggesting that while the immediate downside pressure has eased, the big players are not yet positioning for a major breakout.
• Options sentiment is stabilizing as call dominance reaches 47% and one-week skew drops to 16% from 19% last week. However, the implied volatility term structure’s front-end backwardation confirms that traders are still prioritizing immediate downside protection over long-term growth expectations.
• CoinGlass data shows $163 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 60-40 split between longs and shorts. BTC (64 million), ETH ($35 million) and others ($16 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
• The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $69,500 as a core level to monitor in case of a price rise.

Token talk

• The altcoin market has been surprisingly buoyant recently, despite broader market apathy. Since midnight UTC privacy tokens zcash (ZEC) and dash (DASH) rose by 6.7% and 3.1%, respectively, and there were also notable gains for FET, PUMP and RENDER.
• The bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index gained 0.3% on Tuesday, while being outpaced by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS), a sign of the relative strength of altcoins compared with crypto majors.
• The recent bounce in altcoins has not been uniform, however. AI tokens, privacy tokens and the likes of HYPE and ALGO have performed well, while other market segments have tumbled. Over the past 90 days ethena (ENA) has lost 66% of its value, while TIA, LDO, SUI and ARB have all fallen by more than 50%.
• That’s a divergence from previous cycles, when altcoins moved in unison. It now appears the market is maturing to a point where assets may be moving based on real-world impact, as opposed to hype and overzealous roadmaps.

Since the outbreak of the war with Iran on Feb. 28, bitcoin BTC$68,461.22 has started to diverge from software equities, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), serving as a useful proxy for the sector.

Bitcoin has been one of the strongest-performing assets during this period, rising more than 5% and trading back above $69,000, including a gain of more than 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

IGV, in contrast, has fallen more than 2% since the conflict began. That gap suggests investors are starting to treat bitcoin and software stocks differently, at least in the near term.

Until recently, the two had moved closely together. Over the past three months, bitcoin fell 26% and the ETF lost 23%. Year to date, both are lower by about 21%. Over five years, bitcoin has gained 18% compared with 10% for IGV. In other words, both have moved in the same direction, but the cryptocurrency has done so with much greater volatility.

That is also clear in their declines. Bitcoin had fallen roughly 50% from its October all-time high, while IGV, which peaked slightly earlier, fell about 35% from its own top.

The correlation data tells the same story. From early February, bitcoin and IGV were almost perfectly correlated, close to 1.0, meaning they were moving nearly in lockstep. After the war began, that relationship broke down sharply, with the correlation dropping to 0.13, a level that signals near decoupling, before rebounding to around 0.7. The figure can range between -1.0 and +1.0, with 0 indicating no correlation at all.

Why have software stocks been hit harder?

IGV is heavily weighted toward large software and services companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL) and Salesforce (CRM). Investors are increasingly worried that artificial intelligence will compress margins and valuation multiples across software, especially in Software as a Service (SaaS), as competition rises and barriers to entry fall. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading more like a macro asset, benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty.